Kelly the Dog

The stars have to align for any QB not taken in round one for them to be a star. It's not a good chance for any of them. You're just hoping against hope it's the 5-10% chance lightning strikes.

I considered that. But I always thought that Cardale needed two full years of apprenticeship before you would get an indication of how could he may become. We have only had one. So I don't expect Cardale to blow them away this year in camp. If it were going to happen it would be next year. It's all conjecture of course.

Here is why I don't like the pick at all. Chances are better than 50-50 I think that Peterman beats out Cardale for the #3 because he will fit Dennison's system better. And Cardale will be cut. But we already have the career reliable backup in TJ Yates, who is probably better than Peterman will ever be. Cardale has a chance to be a starter if not a star if everything goes right. If everything goes right for Peterman he is a little below Cousins. That's best case scenario. If we didn't sign Yates then sure, the reliable cerebral accurate field general may be a necessary role. But we have a Peterman already.

IMO, Cousins has a weak arm, and Peterman is worse. If Cousins had a good arm he would be a star I think.

No he doesn't. The combine mph is really not a good indicator. Glennon threw 49 and he has a very decent arm. Peterman has a rag arm. Watson isn't a cannon but he can hurl it well enough.

I think he said top five quarterback pick.

First pick I really didn't like. Hate guys like this. Total teases. You can't play in this league with a rag arm. The only upside is that backup QB is an important position in the NFL. And he could be a guy that can be a reliable backup to play a half or a game or two. But ragarms cannot play in the NFL. He does fit Dennison's system better than Cardale.

Why would you say he has little O line experience? He played three straight years at LT, as much as 90% of draft picks.

Exactly. Confidence is huge but it needs to be based on success in the NFL. All of these guys have huge confidence in themselves coming out of college. But it's a completely different game. Some guys who are thrown to the wolves right away never really regain their confidence. Then again, Steve Young was #1 overall, got killed, was horrible for a couple years, went to SF, got with Bill Walsh, and became one of the best ever. So I do believe eventually Aaron Rodgers would have became the Aaron Rodgers we know after several years. But I truly think he would have sucked as bad as Losman in those first few years with no experience, terrible coaching and few weapons and woefully bad OL.

He was a DL but I believe he played the last three years at LT. Because of his skills, a lot of scouts project him to have the best chance at G in the NFL, but like Cordy Glenn, some evaluators think he can play both, and he will fit certain schemes as a RT, which is what the Bills want him for.

Go back and look at the fifth round in any random year. Of 32-40 picks, or however many there are, you will almost always find 2-3 really good players, 2-3 pretty good, and 30-35 JAGS or out of the league.

The question, like for every team in the league with their backup, is how far the offense will fall over several games, or the entire season should the starter go down. I would imagine, unless Cardale makes a huge, huge jump, that McDermott and Dennison would believe the season is totally shot if Cardale has to play ten games but not necessarily so if Yates has to play ten games. If the difference in their minds is somewhat close, then Yates is possibly expendable, although they may believe he would be a help to Tyrod the way Alex Van Pelt or Frank Reich was a help to Kelly.

Obviously Aaron Rodgers is endlessly and inarguably way, way better than JP Losman. But, it would be interesting to see how their careers would have been different if they were switched. IMO Aaron Rodgers would have got killed on the Bills as a rookie starter and crappy coaching and blocking. Eventually, like, say, Steve Young, who I think is one of the very best QBs of all time, Rodgers would excel. And Losman would likely fail. But he would have been a lot better sitting for three years and getting great coaching. Brady would have likely sucked on the Bills in those first few years of his.

I guess. But then Josh Reed or Woods would have been a lot closer.

Because we clearly need a starter at CB, WR, LB, and likely RT, S. At 10 you may get Lattimore at CB but White is going to be one of the three CBs that start. So the trade down doesn't elimate that.

Yes, of course. Almost always. The point is they need a veteran backup because Cardale is still raw. So Yates is almost a sure roster spot unless Cardale blows them away in camp and preseason. So if they draft Kelly, either he or Cardale are going to be cut. And there are not going to be a lot of reps or playing time in preseason for the 3-4 when installing a new offense. So to me, if you think Cardale has any chance of being a player in the future, drafting Kelly is not a good idea. What I said in my post was, if no team drafts Kelly, then we should sign him, because if we cut him the chances are good that we can then sign him to the PS. If he is good enough around the league to be drafted in the 4-5 round, then he likely wouldn't last on the PS.

True. Hard to say how Poyner is going to play. McDermott obviously likes him. It's hard for us fans to know how well certain players are going to play in new systems even if we followed the Panthers fairly closely (Most good coaches adjust their system to fit the strengths and weaknesses of their players). I think we likely need another safety and another CB, too. But draft picks after the third round are not expected to help right away.

And let him and Cardale fight it out and cut one of them?

Then why was Alex Smith terrible for 4-5 years until Jim Harbaugh and Andy Reid got hold of him. And he was, iirc, number one overall.

I'm trying to think of even one comparison between the two players except that they are black and wide receivers. I do have to admit, however, that I don't know if Zay ever pulled a gun on his own father like James did, although after seeing Zay sitting next to his dad while watching the draft I would imagine perhaps no.

That's tough to extrapolate to. Graham was a track guy, skinny and undersized. He also was pretty tough but subject to injuries sprinters get like hamstring and groin injuries. He also had somewhat of a fluke hand injury (although it is possible he's just brittle). Kelly is inarguably tough. Some guys have bad luck and others good luck. Kelly is not brittle at all. Or undersized. I doubt that he is brittle. Kelly is going to succeed or fail based on two things, both of which are related to his head. Either he is going to sabotage his career by being an idiot or he is not going to become a solid NFL QB or even star becaus he doesn't react to pressure in the game and make good football decisions in the pocket. Both of those things are big question marks.

Even if Mahomes turns out to be good it doesn't necessarily mean if we drafted him he would be as good. He's in a great spot, to learn behind a cerebral veteran QB and a great coach with a history of getting the most out of his QBs.

Only the first and second round picks do teams often think of as starters. Hardly anyone, in general, thinks of a third round pick as a day one starter. So even though we picked up that extra 3, which was, what, #91? Hardly any coach or GM or scout would think that the 91 overall would be expected to start. It happens but fairly rare and usually only on crappy teams. We had to trade up and give away two fifths to get to the bottom of the second round to get their third perceived starter.

Yeah, we should start one of those GoFukkMe fund raising accounts.

Like if Mahomes is good tomorrow? He's not even going to play this year unless Alex Smith gets hurt. So Whaley has at least a year reprieve.