DabillsDaBillsDaBills

While that's factually true, I have to disagree with your conclusion. The Bills were not in a prevent defense up 24-10 with 14 minutes to play, and giving up all those rushing yards hurt a lot. That was pretty far from garbage time and nearly cost the Bills the game. The Colts were pretty effective running the ball through the first 3 quarters (outside of goal-to-go) even if they weren't dominating until the 4th. That's pretty typical for big rushing games (not a ton by halftime, and then they explode in the 2nd half). You're cherry picking stats by excluding 3 plays that disagree with your conclusion. Should the Colts ignore Allen's 3 longest passing plays and say they did a good job keeping him in check by holding him to 250 yards and 1 passing TD ?

Did....we watch the same game? Colts finished with 5+ yards per carry and absolutely gashed us on the ground all day. We did have a few TFL, but that doesn't make up for the rest of the game. Indianapolis Rushing 30 carries 163 yards 5.4 avg This was easily out worst defensive performance since the Chiefs game in week 6, and probably the worst we've had all year. Missed tackles, blown coverages, poor coverage, no sacks, no QB pressure, poor on 3rd down, couldn't stop the run, and couldn't stop the pass. We had some good plays (couple good pass breakups, couple TFL), but we never strung those together to force a punt. The Colts offense was stopped more often by unforced errors than by good plays from the Bills defense. The 4th and goal is a great example. Pittman was open, Rivers had time to throw the ball, but overthrew him by about an inch. Throughout the day Rivers had time to throw the ball, but missed open receivers. The Colts must've dropped about 5 easy catches. After our defense gave up a 14 play 7+ minute drive the Colts very reliable kicker missed a 33 yard FG by about an inch. I'm ecstatic that we won, but if our DEF plays like that against the Chiefs they will drop 50 points on us.

Nitpicking, but Reichs mysteriously passed FG would've given the Colts a 13-7 lead (not tied the game).

The best I can come up with why they let the play stand 1) All 4 reviews in the game previous to this play went in the Bills favor (2x Davis toe taps, overturned INT in the end zone, and failed Colts challenge on Moss fumble/injury). Now, I 100% think they got all those reviews correct, but some of them were very close. In general refs like to "even up" calls during a game. 2) End of game drama. It's a more exciting finish if that play is NOT a fumble, so refs let it stand I'd love to hear an official explanation from NFL head office though. This was pretty clearly a fumble, and it's disgraceful it wasn't overturned

One of the worst takes I've read on here (and that's saying something). Deshaun Watson just signed a 4 year 156mm contract. The guys opinion matters. I'll also point out that he didn't want to have final say or anything, he just wanted to be considered. From ESPN article: This time, Watson had met with Texans owner Cal McNair in several instances, sharing thoughts on certain candidates who came highly recommended, with Watson suggesting that the team at least talk to them, sources told ESPN. He did not expect Houston to hire those he endorsed, but Watson was hoping the Texans would respect the feelings of the group of teammates he was trying to represent, sources told ESPN. Watson wanted to at least have the opportunity to meet with ownership's finalists so he could offer thoughts from a player standpoint to benefit the team -- and then the Texans could hire who they wanted. That opportunity never came.

I'd say that.... 1 (superbowl win and MVP)>>>>>>0 (playoff wins) That should hopefully change this year, but you can't discount the playoff success that Mahomes has had.

We said the same thing about Trent Murphy, but he's still here in his 3rd season with his 10mm cap hit. It's possible to think Beane is a good GM while admitting that he's made some mistakes. I wouldn't call letting Philips and Lawson walk a mistake either. The problem was who Beane chose to replace them, and I worry that Addison was just good enough to keep around and not opt out of his contract. Big picture the Bills are one of the best teams in the league (at least while Allen is on rookie contract). It's tough to find anything to complain about 😄

My problem wasn't with letting Phillips and Lawson walk. They're pretty good role players, but not stars. My problem was trying to replace them with Addison and Butler. Addison has been a pretty big disappointment for a 3 year 30 mil contract.

I don't think that's right. Wentz active cap hit is 35mm in 2021 and dead cap (which will trigger if he's traded or cut) is 59mm. In 2022 those numbers go to 31mm active cap hit and 25mm dead cap. I don't think it's a stretch to say the Eagles are in the worst salary cap situation in NFL history. They're going to have to re-structure a lot of contracts to get under the cap. At least Wentz will be motivated to do so if he wants a chance to play next season.

Maybe not the most "chill" song, but I find it relaxing. Makes me feel like I want to ascend to a higher level of understanding

Marrone is the only one that could give a definitive answer, and he's never given his reason for opting out. A few years after the opt out he said he talked to the Pegulas and wished he had handled things differently and been more communicative through the process. https://buffalowdown.com/2017/03/02/buffalo-bills-doug-marrone-regret/ The rumor that made the most sense to me is that Marrone thought he was getting the NYJ head coach job (his dream job) and abruptly opted out from the Bills with no warning. The Bills FO was pretty shocked by that and reached out to other teams to let them know what had happened. NYJ decided to go with Todd Bowles instead and Marrone ended up an O-Line coach in Jacksonville. It's also believable that he didn't get along with the Bills FO and quit for that reason

His team almost made the Super Bowl because it had a good defense? Is that supposed to discredit him as a coach? I wonder how Marrone would be viewed if the Andy Dalton miracle had happened in 2014 and his 9-7 Bills squad snuck into the playoffs to end the drought instead of Mcdermott's 9-7 Bills team in 2017. St. Doug is still a punk for quitting on the Bills like he did, but people in this thread going on and on about him being a terrible coach are just wrong.

And we're 0-1 in the playoffs under Mcdermott after resting starters in a meaningless week 17 game

For me it's less about seeding and more about keeping this momentum rolling. The Bills are peaking at the right time and I wouldn't want to mess with our groove. The Steelers are more experienced (read: old) and Ben certainly looks like he could use the week off. If the Bills have anyone nursing nagging injuries I'm fine with resting them, but I want to see Allen and Diggs playing until (unless) the game is out of reach. You can't live in constant fear of injuries. Players can get injured in practice or even non-football activities. We can't put Allen in bubble wrap and tell him not to move until a playoff game.

The 2014-15 Panthers won the NFC South with a 7-8-1 record. Those Panthers and the 2010 Seahawks you mentioned both won their first round playoff game after qualifying for the playoffs with a losing record. Interestingly enough the only other times a team made it to the playoffs with a losing record was 1982. Both the Browns and Lions qualified with 4-5 records in a shortened season (I'm not sure if they should really count or not). If Wasington loses and NYG win we'll have a 6-10 division winner which would be the worst win % ever to make the playoffs.

That's not happening this season. Only one of the Cardinals/Bears will miss the playoffs, and they're both 8-7 right now. With the current system of 4 division winners and 3 wild cards it's going to be almost impossible to see a division winner with a losing record, and a 10+ win team (in the same conference) miss the playoffs.

Division winners with a losing record happens so infrequently I don't have any issue with the current rule. I'll also point out that if you applied a new rule to deny the NFC East winner a playoff berth this season, you'd end up with an extra 9-7 or 8-8 wild card team (Cardinals or Bears). Would having a 7-9 Washington Football Team make the playoffs over an 8-8 Chicago Bears team be some sort of travesty? I doubt even Bears fans would complain.

This might be the worst article I've ever seen written by a "professional" journalist. There are logical inconsistencies riddled through this "article" and he clearly put no thought or effort into it. He puts the Jaguars in the top category with this reasoning: in the case of Jacksonville, the team is sitting on a winning lottery ticket to Trevor Lawrence if it manages to lose two more games after having not won a football game in more than three months. Then he writes this on the Jets (currently in the 2nd category): The Jets have an asterisk and if they get locked into the second overall pick then I suspect they stick with Darnold, rather than select a QB second overall. If they somehow get back to the top spot, then kick them down to category three and slot in Trevor Lawrence here. Does being in a position to draft Trevor Lawrence put a team in the 1st or 3rd category? Spin the wheel and find out.... He might need to look up the definition of "intrigue" given there's absolutely no intrigue for the Bengals, Bills, Browns, Ravens, Rams, and Vikings, yet he puts all those teams in the 2nd category. Goff and Cousins aren't "franchise" guys, but with the contracts they have there's a 0% chance their teams move on from them in 2021. The Rams would eat a 66mil dead cap to cut/trade Goff. The Vikings would eat 41mm dead cap for Cousins. Jackson/Mayfield/Allen all look like "franchise" guys, and all are still on their rookie contracts in 2021. There's no intrigue here at all. Any possible contract extensions wouldn't even kick in until 2022, and are ultimately irrelevant for their teams QB situations in 2021. Burrow had a devastating injury, but I don't think there's any intrigue to the Bengals QB situation. It's Burrow if he's healthy enough to play. If he's not it'll be whatever backup they can sign off the scrap heap. Where's the intrigue ?

I guess I'm in the minority here, but I'm not too concerned with Daboll leaving. This is his 7th year as OC in the NFL, and this is the first time he's had an above average offense (his previous best was 22nd in yards and 20th in points). How much of the offense's success this year can be credited to Daboll? How much of Josh's improvement is due to Daboll? There's no way to answer those questions of course, but if Daboll leaves we may get an idea.

I'm not sure if you're trying to be ironic or not. Complaining about Chiefs fans confidence after "just 1 Super Bowl" and yet you think the Bills will beat KC in the playoffs and the "worst" case the game is a coin flip? What's that based on? Blowing out a pretty bad Broncos team? Allen and Mcdermott have 0 playoff wins. Let's wait a little bit before crowning ourselves... It's pretty clear that Mahomes is the best QB in the league right now. I'd say the 2nd tier is a mix of Allen, Rodgers, Watson, and Wilson (in no particular order). I don't know if anyone other than an extreme Bills homer would rate Allen as the best QB in the league.

Holy premature thread batman! We're 10-3 right now.... You could *maybe* make this thread if we were 12-3 (if you don't care about jinxes). There's still nearly 20% of the season left. We're not "on the cusp" of anything other than a playoff spot at the moment

I think Lamar Jackson would be the perfect example of a team making a "mistake" by drafting a future QB with similar skillset. Jackson is 27-7 as a starter and won league MVP in his 2nd season. I do not think his success will be long term, and I would be shocked if he wins a superbowl. The next example would be Patrick Mahomes. Another QB who won league MVP in his 2nd season (and a SB mvp in 3rd season to go with it). I think his success will be long term, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't win multiple superbowls. He's really the prototype for "mostly unproven college QB from an unusual school with lots of potential". Josh will always be second fiddle to Mahomes unless (until?) he wins league MVPS and superbowl MVPs. TLDR: Allen's success (to this point) will absolutely NOT make other teams make draft mistakes

I believe this would be called a "let down" game not a "trap game" as defined in the article OP linked. There's a number of myths in the NFL world that are absolutely false when you do statistical analysis, but are constantly referenced as gospel: Trap/Let down games QBs need big hands It's tough to beat a team for a 3rd time in 1 season There must be more, but that's all I've off the top of my head

Maybe I'm being pedantic, but I don't see how the Steelers was the most complete game of the season. Our offense had 4 punts, 2 turnovers, and scored 3 points in the first half. It might've been the best defensive effort of the season, but I think the Dolphins, Raiders, Seahawks, and 49ers games were each better overall games.

Not a lot of analysis going on in the OP so I followed those guidelines. To elaborate a bit on my reasoning: The Bills have two basic paths to hosting an AFC Championship game. We can get the #1 seed and win our first playoff game (after week 1 bye). Or we make the playoffs as a lower seed, win two playoff games, AND have all higher seeds than us lose. Given that the Chiefs are 2 games up on us, and also have the tiebreaker it's highly unlikely that we end up with the #1 seed. We'd need to get 3 more wins than the Chiefs do in the final 4 games. We'd also have to pass the Steelers, who we are 2 games back on. That's not as unlikely given that we play them this week and would have the tiebreak and only 1 game back if we win. Even after that we'd still have to win our first playoff game to host the AFCCG. For us to host the Browns, the Browns would need to qualify for the playoffs and then win 2 playoff games. The odds of that are so low it's not worth mentioning. There's a lot of potential paths for the Bills to host the AFCCG as a 2-6 seed, but they all boil down to Bills winning consecutive playoff games, AND to have EVERY higher rated seed lose. Pretty slim odds. My guess of 1% might've been a little pessimistic, but anything over 5% is just a pipe dream. Now if we're talking the chance that the Bills MAKE the championship game? I think that's more like 20%.