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Bills 35 Ravens 10

The 2016-2018 KC Chiefs had 3 straight home playoff losses. Lots of other close calls (2009-2012 Patriots for example had 3 home playoff losses in 4 years, with the 4th year a SB loss), but that's the only exact match I could find The first 2 KC losses were with Alex Smith as QB. Then they switched to a new QB and the rest, as they say, is history.

The 'blueprint' is to contain Henry and make Jackson throw the ball a bunch. Ravens are 3-5 in games Henry has under rushing 100 yards (2 of the wins vs Bengals) Ravens are 3-5 in games Jackson has 30+ passing attempts (2 of the wins vs Bengals)

Imagine if the refs didn't let him get away with tackling Kincaid in the end zone or bear-hugging Coleman

I agree that Hollins was an easy taunting call, but I think the Bronco player also deserved a penalty for grabbing Hollin's leg.

It's not EGREGIOUS, but I do think the Ravens and Harbaugh err on the side of pulling Lamar a drive too late rather than a drive too early. Whereas the Bills err on the side of pulling Josh a drive too early. Look at last season Ravens up 42-19 with 7:55 left in the 4th Q against the Dolphins. Not only is Lamar still in the game, he's running the ball. There's 0% chance Josh would still be getting snaps in that game. Everything else being equal if McD and Josh were HC/QB for the Ravens I think Josh would've been benched at least 1 drive earlier in the Ravens wins against the Bills, Giants, Texans, Steelers, and Browns. I also doubt Josh would've gone back into the loss against the Eagles trailing 12-24 with 1 minute left in the 4th Q and no timeouts. Lamar racked up 70 yards and a TD in garbage time that game (the TD scored with 3 seconds left in the game). Lamar and the Ravens aren't as blatant about it as the peak Drew Brees Saints teams or the '07 Patriots, but they still run up the score/stats a bit

Would he? I'm honestly not so sure. Lamar isn't the most egregious stat-padder I've ever seen, but he's extremely stat conscious. I think the individual awards matter a lot more to him than he likes to admit to the public. Look at how Lamar handles plays where a turnover isn't the worst thing. For example: 3rd and long (outside FG range), 4th down attempts (with no open WR), or hail mary situations. Lamar would rather throw an incompletion or take a sack than risk an INT on a play like that. Josh almost seems to take joy in those kinds of plays and relishes chucking up low % deep balls. Josh has more "arm punts" over the last 2 seasons than Lamar has in his entire career. Then you can take a look at how long Lamar is left in blowout victories before being benched. Ravens up 41-10 with 8 minutes left against the Broncos still had Jackson and Henry in the game. Ravens up 28-10 with 4 minutes left against the Browns still had Jackson and Henry in the game. Ironically in the Bills/Ravens game Josh was benched before Lamar was.

*1-30. I don't think the Broncos win against the Chiefs backups should count. AFC had more bottom feeders than the NFC this year. Only 6 teams in the NFL had 4 or fewer wins, and 5 of those teams were in the AFC. If we're looking at the best teams in each conference I'd take the Chiefs/Bills/Ravens over the Lions/Eagles/Vikings

Rodgers had much fewer regular season turnovers, but everything else is comparable. Especially playoffs

Yea, I think the Rivers comparison is a pretty bad one. Allen has been a top 3 QB for 5 consecutive regular seasons, and elevates his game in the playoffs. Rivers had maybe 3 regular seasons in the top 5 and generally was mediocre in the playoffs. Allen already has 9 more postseason TDs and 6 fewer INTs than Rivers. I'd say Allen's career is trending more towards Rodgers than it is Rivers. Elite QB that elevates level of play in the playoffs only to have teammates choke games away.

Going to be honest, I've never heard of Polymarket. Doesn't look like any of the respected betting sites changed their odds. I still expect Josh to win, but we'll see

I haven't seen this reported anywhere, but I'm curious how he managed to re-rupture the same achilles only a few months after the initial injury. Incompetent doctors/treatment? Did he go against medical advice? Was he doing something potentially banned by his contract? EG riding a motorcycle, surfing, etc. (Note: I have no idea if Deshaun had any activities like that banned in his contract, but other players have had those stipulations). Depending on what exactly happened I could see the Browns trying to void Watson's contract. Or Watson suing the (team?) doctors

*41 for Josh Allen. Don't forget the receiving TD (even if it was a bizarre play where he gets credit for 2 TDs)

AFC he's just taking the favorites. BUF vs BAL and KC vs BAL would be coin flips. NFC those are some crazy picks though. GB over PHI and DET?

Yea, i fully expect the AP All-Pro nods to go to Jackson (1st team) and Burrow (2nd team) as a consolation prize for not winning MVP and acknowledgement they had fantastic seasons. Barkley gets OPOY

Bills 24 Broncos 18

I find it extremely disappointing that he's taken multiple false start penalties this year, including one yesterday. Shows a complete lack of focus

Allen starts pointing downfield and turns to the sideline, he doesn't do a full spin like Lamar did. Allen turns his head to look straight at Kincaid when he catches it That's after Allen pump faked to juke an unblocked defender, draws in another defender with his legs as he runs to the line of scrimmage, and then makes a ridiculous 10 yard shovel pass to the endzone. Truly a "one of one" play. Such a shame it was called back on a bogus penalty.

The broadcast reaction to this play drove me insane. The announcer actually said Lamar is "one of one" for making that throw. Literally 30+ starting QBs would have a TD on this play. The O-line gave him perfect protection while he threw to a stationary WR that didn't have a defender within 10 yards of him. It's hard to imagine an easier throw. Lamar's little spin-o-rama to celebrate before his guy caught it is unique I'll give him that. Absolutely no bearing on the play though. Going off on a tangent, but it's too bad failed 4th downs don't count as a turnover. Lamar was 0/3 on 4th downs last night. Including the last play of the 1st half where he was too cowardly to throw a hail mary and risk his precious QB rating

Looks to me like it meets the spirit of the crackback block rule although not the literal definition. Article 6. Crackback Block Item 1. Definition. It is an illegal crackback block if the following conditions are fulfilled: The block occurs within an area five yards on either side of the line of scrimmage, including within close-line play, by an offensive player who is moving toward the position from which the ball was snapped; and (a) the offensive player was in a set position and aligned more than two yards outside an offensive tackle (flexed) when the ball was snapped; (b)the offensive player was in a backfield position when the ball was snapped and moved to a position more than two yards outside an offensive tackle; or (c)the offensive player was in a backfield position and in motion when the ball was snapped. Dawkins clearly meets the first part of the rule, but doesn't quite meet part A or B. Maybe you could argue for part B with how far back tackles are allowed to lineup nowadays haha

I'm firmly in the 'let him walk for a comp pick' camp. The week Cook was injured (1st Jets game) we didn't miss a beat with Davis as RB1. 20 carries for 97 yards and 3 catches for 55 yards. Now, if he wants to sign for a hefty discount (let's say 6mm per) I'd be fine keeping him. Not sure he'd want to sign for that little though

If he wanted this incentive maybe he shouldn't have choked out his pregnant fiancee and gotten himself suspended for 4 games

Cole Bishop is on that list

The draft is a crapshoot anyway. The 2022 Texans won their meaningless week 18 game 32-31 after converting a 4th and 20 for a TD with <1 minute left and succeeded on a 2 point conversion. That cost them the #1 overall pick. They ended up with CJ Stroud at #2 instead of Bryce Young at #1...

I'm not concerned about any potential team we could see in the wild card round other than the Bengals (and there's almost no chance they make the playoffs). I just can't see us losing to any of the Colts/Dolphins/Steelers/Chargers/Broncos. Any given Sunday and all that, but I'd say we have a 75-90% chance to beat any of those teams. Bengals would be a coin flip even with their DEF looking like trash The Ravens are terrifying. Their offense has been good to great for pretty much the whole season. Their run DEF has been #1 the whole year. Their pass DEF was trash for the first half of the season, but they've really turned a corner in the last ~6 weeks or so. The only thing against them is the history of Lamar choking in the playoffs. The Chiefs are the modern day dynasty even though they have a ton of lucky wins this season. Their DEF looks great and their offense has been a lot better the 2nd half of the season. I think we'd have a 40-45% chance of beating either the Ravens or the Chiefs. Our DEF has looked awful down the stretch, and we've had 4 straight seasons of the DEF pooping the bed in the playoffs.