DabillsDaBillsDaBills
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Posts posted by DabillsDaBillsDaBills
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2 hours ago, Big Turk said:
OK...just did a pretty deep dive into this and from what I can see, I don't believe the Bills performance at home passing wise can be explained simply by weather.
Methodologies. I took each teams Home and Away Passing stats, their opponent home and away passing stats and then calculated the net difference in rankings(ie, Bills were 25th at home and opponents were 32nd so they are +7 Net) and also in Net QB Rating.
So, here are how the Bills finished:
Bills at Home QB Rating/Opponent QB Rating Rank: 25/32 for a +7(10th best in NFL--GB led NFL with +28)
Bills on Road QB Rating/Opponent QB Rating Rank: 8/31 for a +23(Best in NFL--CIN was 2nd with +22)
Bills Home Net QB Rating: +20.7(5th best in NFL--GB/DAL led NFL both with +38.4)
Bills Away Net QB Rating: +32.7(Best in NFL--NE was 2nd with +24.7)
Therefore...it is hard to argue that weather at home is the reason for Allen's relative worse performance there considering opponents perform relatively better on the road against the Bills than than they do in their own stadiums where the Bills rank #1 in for both net difference in QB Rating by rank and also by Net QB Rating. Bills also rank in the bottom third of the league in QB Rating at home which cannot be explained away by only weather.
17 teams had a better ranking away versus home with the widest gaps being the Bills at 17 and then Arizona and KC who ranked 16th and 17th at home but 1 and 2 on the road for a gap of 15.
QB rating is a fairly flawed stat. It is hardly an end all be all analysis.
For example:
In the wind game last year vs Patriots Mac Jones finished 2/3 for 19 yards to go with 5 carries for -3 yards. This was good for a QB Rating of 84.0
Josh Allen finished 15/30 for 145 yards and 1 TD to go with 6 carries for 39 yards. This was good for a QB Rating of 75.0
QB Rating says Mac was the better QB that night. Is there a single person on the planet that agrees with that?
Next example:
Week 17 vs Falcons (a snowy/windy game).
Matt Ryan went 13/23 for 197 yards 0 TD 0 INT and 2 carries for 7 yards. That's a QB Rating of 84.9
Josh Allen went 11/26 for 120 yards 0 TD and 3 INTS and 15 carries for 81 yards and 2 TDs. That's a QB rating of 17.0
Josh outplayed Matt by a decent margin in that game and the Bills won fairly handily. QB rating says Ryan was nearly 70 points better.
That one outlier of a game with a few fluky INTs tanked Allen's home QB rating. If his 2 rushing TDs that game had been passing TDs instead he would've had the best net QB rating at home.
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3 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:
I know it’s the biggest…..but is it the first fully guaranteed multi year contract in NFL history?
Was that supposed to be funny?
Kirk Cousins signed a 3 year 84mil deal with the Vikings in 2018 that was 100% guaranteed (and it looks like all of his subsequent extensions/deals with Vikings are also fully guaranteed).
I'm surprised no one has mentioned Trevor Bauer yet. MLB just suspended him for 2 full seasons for domestic violence allegations (after he sat out an entire year on administrative leave), even after the gov't announced no criminal charges would be brought against him. There is 1 woman pursuing a civil case against him (a second woman had started a similar civil case, but later dropped it).
I will say that the allegations against Bauer are more heinous in nature, even if they are less prolific than the allegations against Watson.
If we can view the MLB decision on Bauer as precedence, I would expect Watson to be suspended for AT LEAST the entire season. The suspension will only increase if more statements like this one come out of the civil case (especially if it's closer to the regular season).
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22 minutes ago, Big Turk said:
Let me guess...I am supposed to believe they were also much worse in 2019 as well? In 2020 the Red Sea parted and the weather was perfect every game?
And yeah I know conditions vary in Buffalo, I've lived here over 40 years.
Using starting temp and wind from PFR (precipitation going from memory). I'll note that they had the "wind game" against Patriots in 2021 listed at 19 MPH, and it was obviously significantly windier than that. By my count there were either 4 or 5 games in 2021 that had worse weather than the worst game in 2020. Seahawks in 2020 might've been the nicest ever November home game.
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Just now, Big Turk said:
So did the stadium stop being windy in 2020? That's the whole point...he played an entire year with no fans WITH THE SAME WEATHER CONDITIONS as the year before and year after but didn't have the statistical dropoff he had the year before and year after with fans there. Why are you so willing to ignore that??
You have to just be trolling at this point. Weather conditions vary from game to game in Buffalo and they were significantly worse in 2021 than in 2020.
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1- Weather. There were ~5 brutal home weather games last year.
2- Meaningless week 17 games that Josh was pulled from happened at home in both 2019 and 2020. Josh played for 1 series in 2019 vs Jets.
3- Couple random home games that the run DEF got stampeded (2019 vs Eagles and 2021 vs Colts *Edit* also 2020 vs Chiefs). Tough for a QB to get stats when he's not on the field.
4-Josh's home stats are still pretty darn good and it's tough to complain about a 21-10 record. His personal stats are a bit better on the road, but the W/L is a little behind at 18-12 (yes I know it's a team stat).
Over the last 3 seasons I think the only games Josh might've been too amped up for would be 2019 vs Patriots, 2019 @ Texans (playoff game), and 2021 vs Steelers.
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I'd want to move on if we missed the playoffs (barring injuries). This roster is loaded, including a top 5 (or top 3 or the best) QB in the league on a rookie contract. If you can't make the playoffs with that I don't really care what else he's done for us.
I'd also consider moving on if the defense is shredded in the playoffs again. Even if you ignore "13 seconds" the D was absolutely shredded by the Chiefs (twice) and was pretty darn bad against the Colts as well.
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37 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:
Can I dislike pretty much everyone involved here?
I think that's the only logical response.
I'm still trying to figure out what Papa is saying here:
“I said, ‘No. This is not my job to fire your Commissioner,'” Schnatter said. “‘He works for you. I just sell pizzas. I have a family of small businesses that, you know, probably 35 percent of our spend’s NFL, it’s down 20 percent.
Papa... your sales were down because you went from making decent pizza to making "pizza" that would give a bad name to cardboard. When you start cutting costs to that extent and your entire business model is brand recognition it's only a matter of time before people stop buying your product.
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Excellent article!
I can't get over the fact that the Browns were willing to give up MORE than pick #65 for Tyrod Taylor, but that Beane was willing to only take the 3rd rd pick with the promise that we would have the inside track on trading for #4 overall. And then they reneged!
Edit
Whoops. It was the BRONCOS that were willing to give up more than #65 overall. Still can't believe there was that much of a market for TT (and I like the guy more than most on here).
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I went with a B-
Hate the Bernard pick. Looks like his ceiling is a journeyman backup, and it's not even a position of need. Had we went O-Line with that selection I'd probably be at a B+ or A-
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Probably would've been a small reach to take him at 25, but it's our biggest position of need so I would've been fine with it.
The trade up feels wasteful (what are the odds DAL wanted to draft him?). At least it was only a 4th round pick
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I'll go with Nantz.
I'm not really a fan of Madden. I can appreciate what he did historically, but I'm not old enough to have listened to him during his prime. When I was really getting into my Bills fandom by the 2000s he only offered up the most banal comments and the game had passed him by.
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3 hours ago, Rigotz said:
So... your assumption is that because a third star WR hasn't come forward publicly and said "I want a new deal" ... he's not going to get one?
I'll bet your house that he gets one. Stay tuned on this thread when it happens and I'll be happy to feed you some crow.
Why would I take a bet where YOU are wagering MY house? Bet your own house!
Maybe Kupp is ok with being underpaid by ~10 million this year. He's still being paid 15 million to play a game. If he was going to complain about it and squeeze the Rams for every penny I think he would've done so by now (see: veteran-deal WRs Adams, Hill, Diggs or rookie-deal WRs Samuel, Brown, McLaurin).
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29 minutes ago, Rigotz said:
Deebo missing voluntary practices, wants a new deal:
https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/football/nfl/player-news/10711781?category=headlines
AJ Brown missing voluntary practices, wants a new deal:
https://www.nbcsportsedge.com/football/nfl/player-news/10711811?category=headlines
For the "this is why you don't pay Diggs now" crowd in response to Poyer's actions.
This is why you DO pay Diggs now. He's happy, Josh is happy, and it was going to happen regardless.
1 - Those guys are on their rookie contracts. Diggs was on an already lucrative 2nd contract.
2- No harm has been done to the teams yet - missing voluntary practice is meaningless
3- The most underpaid veteran WR in the NFL has to be Cooper Kupp. I've yet to see a report that he's looking to re-work his contract
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With the insane inflation we're seeing at QB contracts I have to wonder if Allen and Mahomes will be content with theirs or if they'll demand a new deal.
Josh's 6 year deal doesn't kick in until next season, and he'll probably be underpaid by at least 10 million that season. By year 6 he could easily be underpaid by 25+ million.
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Personally I'd put Panarin on there instead of Shesterkin.
Igor is having a fantastic season and should win the Vezina, but this is his first year playing at an elite level. Panarin has 5+ elite seasons (although none are as good as Igor's current season).
Including Scherzer is a bit weird. I can appreciate he's had a fantastic career, but he's a 37 year old pitcher that never started in NY before this year. Should Von Miller be considered for this list?
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Moss's "promising" rookie season was worse than Singletary's sophomore slump season. Moss's sophomore season was less of a slump and more of a disaster (even accounting for the shoddy O-line).
His play should hopefully improve this season, but his ceiling seems to be mediocre RB2.
RB2 is one of the least valuable positions on the roster, so can't say that I care one way or the other if we try to replace him this offseason or give him more time.
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8 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
How exactly is it not team friendly? It’s an avg of 20 mil over 6 years. Not 26-30 mil. It also allows Bills an out in 3-4 years if need be
I'm not trying to say Diggs contract is a poison pill or anything. Just that it's the least team friendly deal among comparable WRs (Kupp, Adams, Hill, Hopkins). Kupp in particular is on a real sweetheart of a deal.
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I love Diggs as a player, but I'm not in love with this contract extension.
There's a handful of comparable WR out there. Kupp, Hopkins, Adams, and Hill are all almost 30 years old with multiple elite seasons.
Of those guys Diggs has the least team friendly contract (not to mention he signed this 4 year contract extension while he still had 2 years remaining on the original contract). The dead cap amounts 4/5 years from now when he's 32/33 years old are pretty eye-opening. His current cap hit isn't small enough to justify that sort of dead cap that far down the road.
Oh well. If it helps us win a SB I could give a ***** about future cap implications. The cap is more guidelines than actual rules anyway
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34 minutes ago, Logic said:
Is "contract control" really worth anything in today's NFL?
If a player outperforms their current contract they'll re-negotiate to make more money. If they underperform they will re-negotiate to be more team friendly (or the team will cut/trade them).
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1 hour ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:
Couple of points-
Arrests aren’t indicative of guilt, let’s remember that.
What someone is being arrested for can range from loitering to murder…big difference.
For example.... Ed Oliver was arrested for DWI despite blowing a 0.00 on the breathalyzer.
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If he wants to sign at a huge discount to chase a SB I'd be all for it. Wouldn't offer any more than 5mm
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2 hours ago, Call_Of_Ktulu said:
I would just make up a new position like assistant assistant RB coach and hire the hottest chick that interviewed just to show how stupid it is to mandate anything.
Over/Under on how long it'll be before we see a lawsuit about this?
I was hired by "X" team to be an assistant to the traveling secretary, and they only gave me menial tasks to do!
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1 minute ago, DCOrange said:
As much as everyone likes to act like Lamar is negotiating the contract himself and won't have any help, this is not what athletes do when they're going into these things without an agent. They just hire a lawyer to make sure they don't do anything stupid instead of having a full-time agent taking a significant amount of their money.
What's the point of forgoing an agent just to pay an attorney to handle the negotiation?
The last player I can remember negotiating their own contract was Richard Sherman, and he really did it on his own with no outside help (unless we're counting his wife). Sherman graduated from Stanford and has always come across as intelligent IMO. He settled on a huge incentive based deal with the 49ers with very little guaranteed $$
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I'll guess 4 years 200mm with 75mm guaranteed. Ravens have potential outs every year
Lamar has never struck me as a book smart person, and going into this without an agent I think he'll go for a deal that has a huge total number and ignore the small guaranteed number.
PFF 10 top coaches...LOL
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Looks like McDermott is getting dinged for a few reasons
1) This team "underperformed" last year based on expected wins per the Pythagorean model. We had the best point differential in the league and finished "only" 11-6. That's a full 2 wins fewer than expected.
2) Josh Allen is a top QB on a rookie contract.