ColoradoBills

I came into this idea with the assumption that if a lot of Day 3 picks are made that a few will not pan out. It's the "odds" thing. With some luck the guys that don't make it can battle with the UDFA and cheap vets for the PS. I could make the point again that guys like Doyle and Hamlin can be upgraded with a rookie, so that opens up more 53 spots. A punter in the mix would definitely be in the works.

If this has been discussed, I missed it. It's an interesting idea. I could see situations/certain opponents when using this scheme could work. Taron can do so much already that it seems plausible.

Good post. Generally, in the past, Beane has gone into the draft with a lot of lower-level vet guys to fill depth holes. Many for double rookie wage scales and most on 1-year contracts. Just wondering if this year he might steer a bit of a different path. My hope is he doesn't feel the need to use these late round picks to get his 1st and 2nd rounder. Then I guess he has more options on Day 3.

Exactly what I was thinking. Many have been saying that. The thing is using the new Trade Value Chart you have to bundle A LOT of those Day 3 picks to get from 128 (Bills top 4th round pick) into the mid 90's. I figure it takes that 4th and 2 5th to make that move. You also have to find a partner to do it. So, once again, my new counterargument is on the odds that the picks given up COULD be worth more drafting guys than using them on the chance of that one 3rd rounder hitting. I'm in no way saying to do what I said, just getting feedback. Thanks for yours!

I do too. I guess my counter to that point is, if they are good at evaluating the later round talent, wouldn't getting more of them increase the odds of guys that could outperform their drafting round. Maybe I'm confused as to how much Beane moves around in the later rounds. I know he uses these picks to move in Day 1 and 2, but has he been moving around a lot in Day 3, or just generally staying where the picks come up on their own?

There is a lot of speculation of Beane using a number of picks to move around the board this season. He has done that in the past, so the premise has legs. On the other hand, Beane has never been in this situation needing some help in a number of areas while needing to get younger AND controlling he cap going forward. Lots of depth penciled in that could be improved on. I look at the Hamlin's/Doyle's as examples. After the first 2 rounds (my personal hope is WR with 1 early pick and DL or S with the other), the remaining 9 are from the late 4th on. Beane and his boys have found some decent players in these rounds, BUT the odds stack against you. Could doubling up on Safety picks (if not in the 2nd) and OL/DL along with single picks of RB/CB/P have any advantage? I know it's a risk, but everything has risk. I just keep wondering if this approach has any merit.

It would be an overpay IF Jones can't play well for the bulk of the season. If he does, then it all comes down to his effectiveness in 2025. Seems to me this contract's risk is about 2025. Beane has to hit on 2 DL guys in this draft. If that happens, Jone's cap hit next year is easily workable. My fingers are crossed on DaQuan's health.

Beane has got a lot more done this season than I expected. Need a great draft. I was thinking he would be high on signing someone after June 1st, but if the roster is looking good at that point he may just roll over some of that money to offset the big dead cap for Von Miller (and Diggs?) coming due next spring.

I agree with carrying 6 WRs this season. Diggs Samuel Shakir Rookie (1st or 2nd round) Hollins (contract says he makes the team unless something really crazy happens) That leaves 1 53 roster spot and 2 decent PS slots minimum. Justin Shorter was a 5th round pick and was redshirted last year. He's had a long time to get acquainted with the team. I see him as the man to beat for the last spot. Hamler, Isabella, Shavers and Thompson are most likely fighting for PS spots. Might be hard for a 6th round WR to make the 53 roster. But, definitely have to pick a guy late round if someone on their board falls significantly.

Other: Take a WR at 28 or with the 2nd round pick. Depends how the board falls and IF there is a low value trade for the best impact player in the 1st.

Classic. Thank you. Haven't seen her for a while.

I get the $3M+ in real pay cut too. Just my opinion, but I could see Dawson taking another cut next year for more guaranteed money to stay in Buffalo in 2025. It seems like the thing he would do.

I figured as much. Just was curious if anyone heard of it happening. It would be a lot of trust between the GM and agent.

Is there any chance that Beane and his boys could get a "handshake" deal to bring in a Safety (or maybe another position of need) AFTER June 1st when Beane has more funds to actually sign a contract? Maybe not at this moment, but when things get tighter and the market is drying up. Has anyone heard rumors if something like this has happened in the past? Just curious.

You really don't like Beane so I won't address that directly. Everyone has an opinion. Just a couple of questions. 1. Do you want Diggs to finish his contract in Buffalo? If yes, signing Samuel's wouldn't be a good thing. He could get Gabe's replacement in the draft. If no, signing Samuel is not a bad idea and drafting a top WR makes sense. We will see the answer to what Beane thinks in the draft. 2. The only reason Morse was let go is money. His replacement is a question. However, having Bates as "heir apparent" is not so cut and dry with me as with others (I guess you too). Bates in his entire career in Buffalo has had 3 full games (around 200) snaps at the Center position. Moving on from him has to be more about his perceived ability to be a starting Center for a playoff team, than just saving money. That's how I see it. 3. Signing Morrow is what it is. They needed 1 more depth guy. Beane has limited funds and having one of his underlings get this deal done early has no bearing on Beane's ability to look at more "starter type" guys. You may think he can't, but I do believe OBD can walk and chew gum at the same time. Signing Morrow now or in a week makes no difference to me. 4. Diggs vs Jefferson. Come on, Josh was young and never had a great WR to throw the ball to. Diggs had proven talent and no doubt was helpful to Josh in his progress. This is truly hindsight at it's best. I know I won't budge you from what you think and believe. Just giving you a perspective from the other side of the coin.

Curtis Samuel has a fairly unique skillset. Comparing him to Beasley or others is a waste of time IMO. He has spent his entire career under Ron Rivera and with the dumpster QBs he was forced to play with, sure didn't help his career. I cannot say for sure how he will be used in Buffalo and how successful he will be. That said, I believe he is a decent receiver, and it will be up to Brady and Josh to make the signing a very good one or not. Personally, I am happy with the signing BUT still want an outside WR on Day 1 or Day 2.

I wouldn't worry about the board members who don't like the signing. You won't convince them to change their minds.

Totally agree. I also think Foreman is worth looking at to fill the big-back spot. Use a 6th on another back with the skill set of a Cook. Let the rookie and Ty battle for RB#3 and the loser goes to PS.

When you cut a player like White who has multiple years left on his contract.......... Cutting before June 1st means all the dead cap from all the remaining years is applied to this season. Cutting after June 1st means only this year's dead cap is applied, and the rest goes on to next year's dead cap. Boils down to Beane having some more money for this year.

No big thing. More me just seeing how the dead cap gets spaced out. The thing is, I agree that Beane should get the WR early in the draft because Diggs won't be on the team for much longer IMO.

I'm of the opinion that Stef and Von are both gone next season. One will be a June 1st cut to spread out some of the dead money. Von has zero trade value but Stef's $17M cap hit ($0 dead money) for a team trading for him is a possibility. Possibly a 4th or 5th. If he can't get a trade, he could reverse who is the June 1st cut. Diggs cap savings if PRE-June 1st is $5M. That pays a lot of Samuel's cap hit and with a cost-controlled rookie WR (1st or 2nd) the WR room is set for 2025 and 2026. No way Beane is paying $50M for Diggs and Miller to play in 2025. Beane has to see it this way and that's why he won't wait until the 4th round for a WR IMO. These 2 moves get him out of the cap problems he faced this March. He already got 1/3 of the way there with White and Morse. The 2 options are (cap $ rounded) Diggs traded and Miller (June 1st): 2025 Dead: $29M 2026 Dead: $9M Miller cut and Diggs (June 1st): 2025 Dead: $24M 2026 Dead: $13.4M

No. After the Chargers eat dead cap, Bears cap hit is $23.1M with no guaranteed money. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/keenan-allen-12357/

I think you won't be shocked.

He also ran for 200 yards (2 TDs) with Brady as OC in Carolina.

He had a lot of nagging injuries last year but played through them and still caught 17 more balls than Gabe. I take it you don't like the signing?