ColoradoBills

I see a very good chance that Miller, Jones and Martin (if the challengers win) are all gone this year. Trubisky is a maybe. He is to the point with his cap hit where it may be worth it IF a younger guy is as good. I put Edwards as a maybe too, only because I get a feeling that 1 move on the IOL will happen. I say this because the Bills are in a very good spot this year with Anderson and Van Demark, but both of them will need to have long-term decisions next season and if SVPG is serviceable then Edwards is expendable and will not get another contract with Buffalo. I think Edwards is tradeable.

I also agree that he is finished. DaQuan Jones' contract goes farther than what most see on the surface. IF the Bills keep Jones the cap hit for 2025 is $9.4M and then $3.7M in dead cap in 2026. That mean to keep him this year costs a total of $13.1M. Cutting him costs $7.6M. His play has gone way downhill. I think Beane will let him go. He may end up being THE Post June designation cut to give Beane the $5.5M he needs to through the season. I would do the June 1st with Jones over Miller. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/14523/daquan-jones

I would think $7M easily gets it done. Maybe even $6M.

Ty has only made $5.5M his whole career. He has a chance for a multi-year contract that should double what he has made so far. If Beane offers that, I think he stays.

Well done.

Ty is going to test the market. He could get a 2-year contract easily.

Right on. Also, if a team has only 1 elite WR who gets the lion's share of targets it could be problematic if he's injured at any time.

Exactly. This is why stats are not cut and dry and never tell the whole story. I see the real question in relation to the $. Is a $30M+ WR worth it when you consider all the other options a team has.

Still a little lower than I would have guessed.

Wow, that's 27%. Way lower than I thought. It does justify the crux of this subject.

Only TBD can have a football reference to the Khmer Rouge. Bravo.

I thought you meant 2/3 of total offensive plays.

Okay, so my point of 40%ish of total plays makes sense.

I find that hard to believe. Between running plays and minus passing plays to TEs and RBs, it seems to me that would be closer to 40%. Do you have numbers for this?

and Russ Brandon.

Cliff Branch was another.

Walt Patulski. Overall #1 pick in the 1972 draft.

If it's a pre-June cut or trade Jets take a $49M dead cap hit. Post June it's $14M in 2025 and $35M in 2026.

Beane and McDermott may do that.

Watson surely caused a problem. The Browns went all in with other players. They "made the playoffs" but were not going to threaten a SB. If that's the goal of the team, well that's up to them. Next year (2026) the Brown have 8 players hitting FA with a total over $80M in void year dead cap. Every one of those 8 players are over 30 years of age. 3 are 35 years old. Add in Watson at $73M, they are F'd. They made bad decisions, followed by bad decisions. Look at what I'm talking about in the Spotrac link. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/overview/_/year/2026/sort/contract_free_agent_year/dir/asc

I agree with your post on how the void years' work. The downside is when contracts are not extended, whether by FA, traded or retire. Example for the Eagles this coming year, Kelce and Cox retired, and they have a $25M dead cap hit. The day does come when you have to pay for players NOT on your team anymore. The Eagles have taken on this risk and so far, they have done pretty well with it. The Browns, on the other hand, have done the same thing BUT are facing a horrible result. I see the "Void Year" option as a useful tool but not a panacea for the cap.

Awesome! Exactly my thoughts. Also (and I hate to bring this up) ends the Beane/McDermott years. It's the smart thing to do and I bet they will talk to Terry about it.

I know it sounds weird but those are the rules. Look at Hurts. He signed in 2023 to a 5-year extension. He has "Void years" going through the 2032 season. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/47648/jalen-hurts It's very risky to do this with too many players BUT Josh is the whole team so using his contract this way is the way to go IMO. If the "unthinkable" happens, the team has to blow up everything anyways.

At the start of 2026 is the perfect time to extend Josh's contract by 5 years. I'm all for pushing a huge amount of his cap into void years then. He will be 38 when he is up for FA. Pay the piper in 2034.