BuffaloRush

You’re big on complaining I write. You complain. That’s your endgame

Because he was an alternate.

Yeah of course....so is making mock drafts in the fall, but writers will do that. From a numbers standpoint you are spot on. I think we’ll know even more how important/not important Tyrod was the Bills offense after this season

That’s why I titled the thread “Which Bills GM Had The Highest Percentage Of Drafting Pro Bowl Talent.” Not “let’s defend Doug Whaley.” By the way @quotetheraven83 it sure seems like this dude things the Pro Bowl designation means something

7-9 is definitely a fair prediction

Let's see who's right....

Many would disagree with you

Say what you will but I was at the Thursday night game agains the Jets and it was by far the most electric atmosphere I've ever seen to start the game...and then Fitzpatrick destroyed our defense

The 2017 NFL Draft is one week away and it's a huge one for us Bills fans. If you listen to many of the draft pundits evaluating talent, many times you will hear about draft picks becoming "Pro Bowl talent." Well I researched which Bills GM's were the most successful at drafting Pro Bowl talent and how they compare to GM's from around the league as well. Unlike Hits and Misses, I did not discriminate between whether a player made the Pro Bowl on the Bills or with another team. I also removed any subjectivity about the selection. I also added the number of drafts that the GM's took part in. You'll see that drafting Pro Bowl is a lot like a baseball players batting average. It's much easier to hit .500 with 10 at bats, than it is with 100 etc. What you find below may surprise you. The names that you associate failure and success with in terms of drafting, may just surprise you. Of course, drafting Pro Bowl players is not the only means of success for a GM or a franchise. But again, what someone defines as a "good" or "bad" pick is very subjective. It is very hard to disagree that a player that was selected and made the Pro Bowl was a "bad" pick. Anyway here's the Bills list: General Manager Years as GM # of Drafts # of Pro Bowl Players Drafted Total Draft Picks Rate of Success Marv Levy 2006-2007 2 4 16 25% Tom Donahue 2001-2005 6 5 36 13.9% Russ Brandon 2008-2009 2 2 18 11.1% Bill Polian 1986-1991 6 6 72 8.3% John Butler 1992-2000 9 5 81 6.2% Buddy Nix 2010-2013 4 2 35 5.7% Doug Whaley 2014-2016 3 0 20 0.0% Where else would you rather be, than #1 on this list!?!?!?! Now let's see how these numbers compare to the top GM's in the league: General Manager Team Years as GM # of Drafts # of Pro Bowl Players Drafted Total Draft Picks Rate of Success Bill Belichick New England 2000-2017 18 17 150 11.3% Ozzie Newsome Baltimore 2002-2017 16 15 137 10.9% Thomas Dimitroff Atlanta 2008-2017 10 7 74 9.5% Kevin Colbert Pittsburgh 2010-2017 8 6 67 8.9% Howie Roseman Philadelphia 2010-2014, 2016 6 5 56 8.9% David Caldwell Jacksonville 2013-2017 5 3 39 7.7% So what are some of the overall takeaways here: 1. it's really hard to consistently draft Pro Bowl players in the draft. 2. The draft is a crapshoot. You are going to miss quite often, so like baseball it's best to get as many swings as possible. 3. The really good General Managers are usually only to draft a Pro Bowl talent 1 out of every 10 picks. 4. The really bad GM's are only able to draft a Pro Bowl talent 1 out of every 25 picks (or worse) 5. Despite all of the misses from Bill Belichick, he has done a relatively good job of selecting talent over the past two decades. Ditto for Ozzie Newsome. Now the takeaways for the Bills GM's: 1. Surprisingly Tom Modrak (under Marv and Russ) did a fairly decent job of drafting talent (6/32 for 19%). Though several of his picks made the Pro Bowls on other teams. 2. Tom Donahoe also did a decent job of drafting ands had several strong drafts. 3. Bill Polian did miss quite a bit (as stated on Hits and Misses) but is only 1 of 2 GM's on the list to draft All-Pro talent (Henry Jones and Thurman). Buddy Nix was the other (Marcell Dareus) 4. John Butler made selections that developed into good players but only a handful were named to the Pro-Bowl 5. Doug Whaley and Buddy Nix were not very good in the draft. Buddy's only two Pro Bowl players were Gilmore and Dareus, whereas Sammy Watkins or Ron Darby were probably the closest he every got to drafting a Pro Bowl player. Of course, his last draft in 2016 (sorry not counting 2017 as "his" draft) was only a few years ago, so we'll have to wait a few more seasons. The question now is how will Brandon Beane rank on this list. I am hoping to see some more Pro Bowl players from his tenure as GM in the future. Let's hope het get the chance to take over 100 swings like Belichick or Ozzie, because that will mean he's doing something right! Let's hear some of your takeaways!

I think they very well could get end up with Darnold or Rosen. It's going to be an interesting week and I'm nervous as all hizzell 1. Allen 2. Barkley 3. Mayfield 4. Chubb 5. Rosen or Darnold

In the draft alone, he did a decent job. You can argue that they didn’t need McGahee, but he still found quite a few starters. His downfall as GM were big free agent acquisitions that didn’t pan out as well as he hoped. That and like most GM’s....he failed to find a franchise QB. If TD drafts Big Ben his outlook could have been drastically different

Podcast or web series? Because apparently Donald, Reuben, and this reporter can’t tell the difference

Has anyone stopped and asked this - if it’s a “podcast” what are they going to be “filming?” My guess is that it will be a web-broadcast and then they’ll release the audio as a podcast? Either way, I wish these two the best of luck. I listen to a lot of sports talk radio and podcasts and I am very familiar with their work. But if I was a betting man, I don’t think this current concept will be successful or last long term. First off Reuben and Donald need a host to guide the broadcast. Reuben is great on the air and Donald is ok, but I don’t think those two alone are a good combo. I’ve heard Donald on the air without Murphy and he is actually worse. Second the format of filming in front of a live crowd is a challenge. Much more challenging than recording an audio podcast, which you can record anytime/anywhere. Live shows are a big ordeal both from a logistical and technical standpoint. Throw in the idea of travel and it’s more challenging....and expensive. By the way...who’s financing this? Third, the idea of a Buffalo Bills-based podcast focusing on the entire and other sports is not a great concept in the very personalized area of sports podcasts. I feel they can’t be both - either be a podcast that covers all of sports or focus just on the Bills. Don’t do both. I’m not saying that these two will flop but this current idea will not take off. I’m hoping they make some changes because I’d like to see them succeed.

And you whinge no matter what I write so maybe that why I won’t engage in arguments The problem is some members here have a certain bias for players and want to either overlook obvious flaws or undervalue other aspects. I never said this was a perfect system but I think I’ve been consistent. We have one more GM. If I get a chance, I have one more idea on how to evaluate GM’s from Polian on using actual data

Dont forget the threads with you whinging like a baby

Fair enough... he did an ok job with the draft though.

You can make the argument they didnt need him with Henry. But the bottom line is that he was a solid pick. 3 seasons with the Bills me had 1100, 1300, and 990 yards. He was a solid pick and Pro Bowl player

Agreed. I'm just saying, after last season I'd put him at #1

Right just one example - you are splitting hairs.

Belichick has a lot of misses in the draft

How is Roseman #3, when some of his shrewd personnel moves both with players and coaches were essentially the difference in a Super Bowl winning season,.

Thank you for your opinion but I strongly disagree. Please identify one player from this list that you feel is miscategorized? IMO and the opinions of many others, this list is pretty solid.

This bad move caps off a very bad week. Even though it means that Cap Capi will count less on the salary capi than his replacement. Time to for night cap

Well there is just about one week to the 2018 NFL Draft where current GM Brandon Beane's fate very well could be decided. Now let's review the final drafts for the last two Bills GM's. Up first - GM Tom Donahoe who has a newly won Super Bowl ring with Philadelphia. * While this is very subjective, I am defining a "hit" as any player that reasonably performed at or above his draft status. As an example, a player like Paul Pozlusny becoming a solid starting LB as a 2nd round pick. A "miss" is the opposite - a player who performed under or well under their draft status. * If you draft a player in the first round and they are a marginal starter, I am defining that as a miss. * Also, if a player doesn't have a great career for the Bills, but then has a better career on another team that is not a miss in my opinion. We are dealing strictly on what the draft selections brought to the table for the Bills - not another team. Now if you recall, in 2001 Tom Donahoe and unprecedented amount of power, control, and money from owner Ralph Wilson who developed a habit of being tight with the pocket book strings. The unsuccessful tenure of Donahoe essentially swayed Ralph against ever hiring a GM from outside of the organization. But while Donahoe was not successful overall, let's see how he did in the draft. Before though, here are my current rankings: 1. John Butler: 38% 2. Russ Brandon: 28% 3. Marv Levy: 25% 4. Buddy Nix: 25% 5. Bill Polian: 23% 2001 Draft Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2001 1 Nate Clements 21 DB 2012 0 1 10 64 180 36 4.5 Ohio St. 2001 2 Aaron Schobel 46 DE 2009 0 2 8 61 133 3 78.0 TCU 2001 2 Travis Henry 58 RB 2007 0 1 4 41 90 0 1 0 0 1 1488 6086 38 141 951 2 Tennessee 2001 3 Ron Edwards 76 DT 2012 0 0 6 39 139 16.5 Texas A&M 2001 3 Jonas Jennings 95 T 2008 0 0 5 29 75 Georgia 2001 4 Brandon Spoon 110 LB 2001 0 0 1 5 14 2 North Carolina 2001 5 Marques Sullivan 144 G 2003 0 0 1 11 32 Illinois 2001 6 Tony Driver 178 DB 2002 0 0 0 0 11 Notre Dame 2001 6 Dan O'Leary 195 TE 2002 0 0 0 1 17 Notre Dame 2001 6 Jimmy Williams 196 DB 2006 0 0 0 9 80 3 1.0 Vanderbilt 2001 7 Reggie Germany 214 WR 2001 0 0 0 2 16 12 203 0 Ohio St. 2001 7 Tyrone Robertson 238 DT 2001 0 0 0 1 12 2.0 2001 was a very strong draft for TD. He was able to successfully hit on his first 5 picks. Clements and Schobel proved to be above average starters who many thought had potential to be among the best at their position. Travis Henry was extremely solid at RB, though fumbles and poor personal choices ended his career. In the 3rd round TD grabbed two starters in Ron Edwards and Jonas Jennings. The rest of the draft was hot garbage, though Marques Sullivan did end up starting the entire season in 2002. He gets a miss though as he was not good. Overall a very good draft Hits 5 Misses 7 Success: 42% 2002 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2002 1 Mike Williams 4 T 2009 0 0 3 25 59 Texas 2002 2 Josh Reed 36 WR 2009 0 0 3 28 115 14 57 0 311 3575 10 LSU 2002 2 Ryan Denney 61 DE 2010 0 0 2 24 113 2 44 2 23.5 BYU 2002 3 Coy Wire 97 DB 2010 0 0 1 16 127 5.0 Stanford 2002 5 Justin Bannan 139 DT 2013 0 0 3 36 163 1 6.5 Colorado 2002 6 Kevin Thomas 176 DB 2004 0 0 0 5 38 1 24 0 1 1.5 UNLV 2002 7 Mike Pucillo 215 G 2007 0 0 1 9 48 Auburn 2002 7 Rodney Wright 249 WR 0 0 0 Fresno St. 2002 7 Jarrett Ferguson 251 RB 0 0 0 Virginia Tech 2002 7 Dominique Stevenson 260 LB 2004 0 0 0 2 21 Tennessee 2002 This draft was very poor. Donahoe missed badly on the Mike Williams selection, though in his defense many other GM's would have made the mistake and William was seen as a "can't miss prospect." The rest of the draft is not impressive. Justin Bannan had a very decent career in the NFL, but not with the Bills, so he gets a Miss. In a move that will surprise many, I am giving Josh Reed a borderline hit. I remember him as not being very good, but when you look at his production the numbers don't like. He was a very decent slot WR: He had 50+ catches for nearly half of his career with the Bills I know I will get "Coy Wire was a hit" but he only started one season and played poorly. He was a decent ST'er but did not live up to his 3rd round status. Ditto for Mike Pucillo who was a below average starter for 1 terrible year. Bad draft. Hits: 1 Misses: 9 Success: 10% 2003 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2003 1 Willis McGahee 23 RB 2013 0 2 7 55 142 2095 8474 65 210 1339 5 Miami (FL) 2003 2 Chris Kelsay 48 DE 2012 0 0 8 47 147 3 32.5 Nebraska 2003 3 Angelo Crowell 94 LB 2007 0 0 3 19 65 5 7.0 Virginia 2003 4 Terrence McGee 111 DB 2012 0 1 6 48 122 17 3.0 NW State (LA) 2003 4 Sam Aiken 127 WR 2010 0 0 0 7 95 48 684 2 North Carolina 2003 5 Ben Sobieski 151 T 2003 0 0 0 0 1 Iowa 2003 6 Lauvale Sape 187 DT 2005 0 0 0 1 10 Utah 2003 7 Mario Haggan 228 LB 2012 0 0 2 21 132 1 9.0 Mississippi St. A much better effort from Donahoe. Many questioned the pick of an injured McGahee, though he had 3 strong years before the very bad trade to Baltimore. Chris Kelsay get's a very marginal hit. While he was never spectacular and very average, he did start for nearly 8 seasons. He was very Shaq Lawson like. McGee and Crowell were very good selections and competent starters for mid round selections. Finally Mario Haggan gets a hit for his contributions on Special Teams as a 7th round draft pick. This very well could be Donahoe's best draft and the highest success rate for hits and misses Hits: 5 Misses: 3 Success: 63% 2004 ear Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2004 1 Lee Evans 13 WR 2011 0 0 7 49 118 0 1 0 0 0 10 145 0 381 6008 43 Wisconsin 2004 1 J.P. Losman 22 QB 2011 0 0 2 19 45 564 952 6271 33 34 105 490 3 Tulane 2004 3 Tim Anderson 74 DT 2007 0 0 1 7 43 1.0 Ohio St. 2004 4 Tim Euhus 109 TE 2007 0 0 0 1 34 14 115 2 Oregon St. 2004 7 Dylan McFarland 207 T 2005 0 0 0 0 3 Montana 2004 7 Jonathan Smith 214 WR 2006 0 0 0 2 18 3 12 0 8 77 1 Georgia Tech This is the draft which ruined Tom Donahoe. He missed on nearly every pick, though I decided to give Lee Evans a hit. While his numbers are not specular, Lee was very underutilized in a poor offensive scheme with QB's who never should have been on the field. He had two very good years and a few other decent ones. Overall, I'm giving him a marginal hit. The rest are just hot garbage. Donahoe deserves an extra kick in the ass with this draft. It's heavily rumored that he had a deal to move up a few spots in the draft to select Big Ben Roethlisberger who he loved. At the last second he backed off only to have Pittsburgh grab in at #11. In a move of desperation he reached badly and traded up to draft the terrible QB known as JP Losman. This move screwed the franchise. Donahoe's success rate should be 0% Hits: 1 Misses: 5 Success: 17% EPIC MISS: 1 2005 Year Rnd Player Pick Pos To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ 2005 2 Roscoe Parrish 55 WR 2012 0 0 0 14 90 1 1 3 0 0 14 71 1 134 1502 7 Miami (FL) 2005 3 Kevin Everett 86 TE 2007 0 0 0 0 17 2 4 0 Miami (FL) 2005 4 Duke Preston 122 C 2008 0 0 2 11 59 Illinois 2005 5 Eric King 156 DB 2010 0 0 0 4 63 Wake Forest 2005 6 Justin Geisinger 197 G 2008 0 0 0 0 6 Vanderbilt 2005 7 Lionel Gates 236 RB 2007 0 0 0 0 1 Louisville Ouch another very very poor draft from Tom. It's no wonder why this would be his last. With a very limited number of picks, Donahoe gave the Bills straight up garbage. Roscoe Parrish was an ill-advised reach in round 2 and couldn't stay on the field long enough to do anything. His 4th round selection of Duke Preston was his only hit - and it was very close.. Dukie was never a star by any means though he did start for two years - not bad for a 4th round pick. Overall: 12/36 Hits 12 Misses 24 Success Rate: 33% Donahoe was not a good GM and that can't be debated. He made many very poor decisions while running the team. However, compared to other GM's he did a fairly decent job with the draft and as you'll see below he hit on more selections that some of the other GM's. He had a few good drafts and a few bad ones, which by Bills standards is not that bad. Current Standings: 1. John Butler: 38% 2. Tom Donahoe: 33% 3. Russ Brandon: 28% 4. Marv Levy: 25% 5. Buddy Nix: 25% 6. Bill Polian: 23%

Huge mistake. This guy is anmuhh better edge rusher than Shaq Lawson. He would’ve been a great member in the rotations. releasing Capi Capi will be Beane’s biggest mistake