Trust The Process

Hard NO to Settle who's just another guy I can replace with someone else cheaper. Hard NO to Phillips, gimp, can't trust his availability. Hard NO to Lawson who's just another guy. I'd rather draft his replacement on Day 3 of the Draft. I'd bring back Floyd but only for less than market value which isn't going to happen anyways. Jones for no more than $3M per year for 1-2 years Epenesa for no more than $5M per year

The Safety Free Agent market is loaded. What's the rush, Beane? Since the Safety market is loaded and most are better than Rapp is, McBeane could've taken a calculated risk and banked on him being available when the market goes dry and sign him for between vet minimum $915K and no more than the $1.77M he made last season. The reason why McBeane re-signed Rapp is because they have trust issues which is why they sign a lot of players they're familiar with. Trubisky and Haack is back for the very same reason. The Steelers released Trubisky 23 days ago, nobody wanted him. Why sign him now when you could've taken a calculated risk and waited to see what offers he gets from other teams before you offer him a contract? Last season Trubisky played like a 3rd string QB for God sakes and a veteran minimum QB!!! Based on that, in my opinion, is what Trubisky's market value should be.

Harty should be the next cap casualty

I want us to draft a receiver who's a threat to score on any given play which is why I'm intrigued with Worthy.

These are my 5 favorite WR's. I'd be thrilled to draft any one of them.

@spotrac has the #Bills at $287.9 million in Top 51 player contracts, putting them at an estimated $32.5 million over the new salary cap limit of $255.4. Some work for Brandon Beane to do - as we’ve been discussing - but not as bleak a picture as a few weeks ago.

*VALUE FREE AGENTS ACCORDING TO MOSTLY SPOTRAC AND PFF ANNUAL AVERAGE SALARY DEFENSE SS Jeremy Chinn: $3M SS Jordan Fuller: 6M SS Julian Blackmon: 6M FS Alohi Gilman: $4-$5M FS Darnell Savage: $4.5M FS Jordan Fuller: $6M DE Yetur Gross-Matos: I couldn't find a projected Average Annual Salary for Gross-Matos but should be affordable DE Clelin Ferrell: $3M DE Carl Lawson: $3M DE Marcus Davenport: 3.5M DE: Yannick Ngakoue: $4M DE A.J. Epenesa: $5.6M DE Tyquan Lewis: $6M DE D.J. Wonnum: $6.5M DE Jadeveon Clowney: $7.2M-$9M DE Denico Autry: $7.25M DE Andrew Van Ginkel: $7.5M DE Leonard Floyd: $8.1M DE Josh Uche: $8.3M DE Dorance Armstrong: $8.5M LDT Sebastian Joseph-Day: $3.5M LDT Raekwon Davis: $4M LDT Javon Kinlaw: $5.4M LDT Teair Tart: 4M RDT: Maurice Hurst: $1.5M OFFENSE RWR Jalen Reagor: $1M RWR Van Jefferson: $2.3M RWR Donovan Peoples-Jones: $2.7M RWR Devin Duvernay: $3M RWR: D.J. Chark: $4M (as low as 4M (A to Z Sports) and as high as $10.9M (Spotrac) RWR Kendrick Bourne: $5M RWR Josh Reynolds: $5.5M-$7M RB Ty Johnson: $1.1M RB Rashad Penny: $1.5M RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: $1.6M RB J.K. Dobbins: $2M RB Ezekiel Elliott: $2.7M (I listed Zeke just because McBeane loves to sign veteran RB's) RB D'Onta Foreman: $3M RB A.J. Dillon: $3.5M RB Antonio Gibson: $3.6M

Poyer and Hamlin are under contract, and Rapp and Hyde are both unrestricted free agents, which means we have 2 Safety roster spots to fill which doesn't include Cam Lewis who's also a free agent and an emergency Safety. Beane made it clear we're not going to break the bank in free agency, at best we'll sign one for up to mid-level money with an Annual Average Salary in the $5-8M range which is currently outside of the top 19 highest paid Safety's in the league. Below is a list of some of the UFA Safety's that I like that projects an Average Annual Salary of up to $8M. SS Jeremy Chinn: $3M (built like a linebacker and runs like a cornerback, Chinn is a freak, do-everything safety/linebacker/nickel back similar to Rapp) SS Julian Blackmon: $6M (another do-everything Rover Safety/LB/NB in the mold of Chinn and Rapp. Indy DC Gus Bradley runs a Cover 3 Defense, same as McD) FS Jordan Fuller: $6M (is a ball-hawking FS. 2023 stats include 68 PFF, 3 FF, 3 INT's, 5 Pass Breakups to go along with the lowest passer rating against of his career. Fuller was one of the better graded tackling and run defense safeties by PFF’s metrics) FS Geno Stone: $8M (2nd in the NFL with 7 INT's while playing nearly 1,000 snaps. 84.9 PFF coverage grade. A deep FA safety crop might reduce his market. FS Alohi Gilman: I couldn't find an Average Annual Salary for Gilman but I'm assuming he won't cost much. Gilman is my super sleeper of the free agent Safety group. Versatile player who can play both deep and in the box. 86.1 PFF. 73 Total Tackles 3 FF, 2 INT's, and 10 Pass Breakups. Gilman was PFF’s 7th highest-graded safety and 5th best in coverage.

Aside from the multiple hall of famers, the trait that the 4 straight Super Bowl teams had that this team doesn’t have is swag

If you wanna head coach to rebuild the culture and make the playoffs? McD is your man. Want to win a Super Bowl? McD is not your man. I predict McD gets fired after the 2025 season. Pegs will serve us a new batch of Kool-Aid by hiring a new head coach when the new stadium is ready to go in 2026. Book it.

Most of the Bills cap dollars and premium draft picks have been spent on defense yet McD's defense is allowing an average of 27.6 PPG in 6 playoff losses. YIKES!!

Not sure, however, when you have a great QB like Allen, McD must have a better a winning percentage than 52% in one score games.

This is how I assess blame as to why the Bills haven't been more successful ever since McBeane took over. McD: 55% Beane: 30% Players: 15% McD's RECORD IN 1 SCORE GAMES 2017: 6-3 2018: 3-3 2019: 4-6 2020: 6-1 2021: 0-6 2022: 7-3 2023: 6-7 McD's record in 1 score games including the playoffs is 32-29 equals a winning percentage of 52.4%. This stat proves when its crunch time McD is average, which is unacceptable, and has been detrimental in the playoffs. McD's RECORD ON CHALLENGES 2017: 1-3 2018: 0-6 2019: 2-3 2020: 2-3 2021: 1-2 2022: 1-3 2023: 3-3 McD has a combined record of just 10-23 on challenges since becoming Head Coach of the Bills. That's a success rate of only 30.3% which is amongst the worst in the NFL when it comes to tossing the flag. Incredibly, McD has never had a season in which he has won more challenges than he has lost. McD's PLAYOFF VICTORIES 2020: Phillip Rivers and Lamar Jackson (Wildcard Round and Divisional Round) 2021: Mac Jones (Wildcard Round) 2022: Skylar Thompson (Wildcard Round) 2023: Mason Rudolph (Wildcard Round) Notice a pattern here? Aside from a 39 year old Rivers, McD's playoff victories came verses QB's who suck. McD's PLAYOFF LOSSES 2017: Blake Bortles (Wildcard Round) 2019: Deshaun Watson (Wildcard Round) 2020: Pat Mahomes (AFC Championship Game) 2021: Pat Mahomes (Divisional Round) 2022: Joe Burrow (Divisional Round) 2023: Pat Mahomes (Divisional Round) The pattern here is, aside from losing to Blake Bortles, McD hasn't beaten any great QB's in the Playoffs. Watson was a great QB at the time McD faced him. POINTS ALLOWED IN PLAYOFF LOSSES 2017: 1O vs Jacksonville 2019: 22 vs Houston 2020: 38 vs Kansas City 2021: 42 vs Kansas City 2022: 27 vs Cincinnati 2023: 27 vs Kansas City The pattern here is McD's defense is allowing a whopping average of 27.6 PPG in 6 playoff losses. McD is a defensive coach yet his defenses has gotten shredded in 4 of 6 playoff losses, 4 years in a row to be exact. Wrap your brain around that. NOTABLE PLAYOFF STATLINE IN 3 GAMES VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS McD's defense only forced the Kansas City Chiefs to Punt a grand total of 4 times in 3 playoff games, and allowed an average of 35.7 PPG. Good grief. How in the world is McD still the head coach of this team? It boggles the mind. Beane shares the 2nd most blame, mostly for doing a bad job with Free Agency. Didn't spend cap dollars wisely, especially on the defensive line. Bad contracts. As far as the draft goes, Beane has done a great job from rounds 4-7 but at an average job in rounds 1-3 which is where you find your blue chip players/difference makers, and where precious cap dollars are spent. The Players shares the least most blame, mostly for not making enough plays to win in crunch time in one score games during the regular season, and more so in the playoffs. The bottom line is stats don't lie, it tells a story.

The Bills currently have 21 Unrestricted Free Agents and are set to start the offseason approximately $51 million over the cap which means Brandon Beane has his work cut out for him just to free up enough cap space to fill out his roster, sign his draft class, and have enough cap space leftover for the regular season. Here's what I would do this offseason if I were Brandon Beane. Below is a list of 21 Unrestricted Free Agents. I would re-sign 5 of the 21 FA's. *UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS 1. WR Gabe Davis 2. WR Trent Sherfield 3. RB Latavius Murray 4. RB Ty Johnson: re-signed $1.5M 5. RB Damien Harris 6. QB Kyle Allen 7. OL David Edwards: re-signed $2M 8. FS Micah Hyde 9. S Taylor Rapp 10. DE Shaq Lawson 11. DE A.J. Epenesa: re-signed $5.5M 12. DE Leonard Floyd 13. DT DaQuan Jones 14. DT Tim Settle 15. DT Jordan Phillips 16. DT Poona Ford 17. DT Linval Joseph 18. LB Tyrel Dodson: re-signed $3M 19. CB Dane Jackson: re-signed $3M 20. CB Cam Lewis 21. ST Tyler Matakevich *RELEASED RB Nyheim Hines: Cap Hit in 2024 is $5.5M with a Dead Cap of 500K is a cap savings of $5M. WR Deonte Harty: Cap Hit in 2024 is $5.57M with a Dead Cap of $1.37M is a cap savings of $4.2M. C Mitch Morse: The problem here is that at 32 (in April), Morse is set to make $11.2 million in the final year of his deal. Cutting him saves $8.4M, and the team is due to draft or sign a younger center anyway. Morse is a difficult Bills cut candidate to jettison this offseason, but it only gets harder from here. For the time being Ryan Bates will be my starting Center while the young Center develops. SS Jordan Poyer: When Poyer hit free agency last season, he expected a big market, but it never came and he returned on a two-year deal worth $10 million. Age and injuries appeared to wear on Poyer this season and it was clear doesn’t possess the same range anymore. Cutting Poyer saves $5.7M in cap space. LB Von Miller: There's lyrics in Kenny Rodgers song ''The Gambler'' that says ''You've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run''. It's high time to cut our losses and move on. Von is washed up, and his valuable roster spot can be put to better use with someone younger and heathier. The thinking here would be to get out of his contract before the remaining $6.43M of 2024 salary becomes fully guaranteed. Without a Post June 1st Designation, Buffalo would take on a $32.5M dead cap hit (including $10.71M cash), which would represent an $8.6M cap loss for 2024. I'd designate Von as a Post June 1st Designation which would mean $17.08M of 2024 dead cap ($10.71M cash), & another $15.4M of 2025 dead cap. This would free up $6.8M of cap space for the Bills next year, but not until June 2nd. I'm willing to bite the bullet. Addition by subtraction. *CONTRACT RESTRUCTURE QB Josh Allen LG Connor McGovern IOL Ryan Bates LB Matt Milano *DON'T RESTRUCTURE WR Stephon Diggs TE Dawson Knox *CONTRACT EXTENSIONS OT Dion Dawkins: UFA after 2024. Offer a 2 year contract extension through 2026. CB Rasul Douglas: UFA after 2024. Offer a 2 year contract extension through 2026. CB Taron Johnson: UFA after 2024. Offer a 2 year contract extension through 2026. *PAY CUT RESTRUCTURE WITH INCENTIVES FOR SNAPS/GAMES PLAYED CB Tre White: White is coming back from a torn Achilles without a timetable for return, his 2nd long-term injury in 3 seasons. 2024 Cap Hit is $16.4M with a $10.4M Dead Cap. Releasing White saves $6M in cap space. I'd ask White to accept a $6M Pay Cut with the opportunity to earn that back by hitting incentives, but if White disagrees, I'll designate him as a post-June 1 release which saves $10.2M in cap space. *TEAM NEEDS 3 WR's to replace Davis, Sherfield, and Harty 1 RB to replace Latavius Murray 3 DE's to replace Miller, Floyd, and Lawson 5 DT to replace Jones, Phillips, Settle, Ford, and Joseph (DL gets revamped) 1 FS to replace Hyde 1 SS to replace Poyer 1 HYBRID SAFETY to replace Rapp (Safety group gets revamped) 1-2 CB's to replace Lewis and possibly White *FREE AGENT ADDITIONS FS Geno Stone: $8.5M AAV, replaces Hyde SS Jeremy Chinn: $3M AAV, replaces Poyer DE Jadeveon Clowney: $7M AAV, replaces Floyd LDT Sebastian Joseph-Day: $3.5M, replaces Jones RDT Maurice Hurst Jr: $1.5M replaces Settle WR Kendrick Bourne: $5M AAV or WR Darnell Mooney on the cheap (Spotrac projected Mooney AAV at $10.4M. He should be half that much) RB J.K. Dobbins: $2M AAV *NFL DRAFT: 10 total draft picks. 1,2, comp pick 3, 4, two 5th's, three 6th's and a 7th. 2 WR'S: My draft plan is to add 2 explosive WR''s. The traits this receiving core lacks is speed, size, explosiveness, yards after the catch, and separators. The offense also finished last in the league completing deep middle passes. These are huge needs which must be addressed. The first would be an Outside X-Receiver with size, speed, and big play ability who stretches the field. With the 28 overall pick I'm hoping LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr or Oregon WR Troy Franklin is available. If not, trade out of the 1st round with a team selecting early in the 2nd round and draft Xavier Legette instead. The second WR will be selected on Day 3. Some of the notable WR's who's projected to be Day 3 picks that I like is Virgina WR Malik Washington, UCF WR Javon Baker, Illinois WR Isaiah Williams, and Idaho WR Hayden Hatten. Round 1: WR Brian Thomas Jr or WR Troy Franklin. If both aren't available trade out of 1st rd with team early in the 2nd and draft South Carolina WR Xavier Legette. Any one of these 3 WR's replaces Davis. Round 2: LDT T'Vondre Sweat, replaces LDT Jones Round 3: DE Round 4: C Round 5: SS Round 5: CB Round 6: RDT Round 6: WR Round 6: DE Round 7: OT

Cook is a good running back, but the problem I have is a 190 lb running back should never have 291 touches at the end of the regular season which is what Cook had which explains why Cooks struggled in 4 of the last 5 games which includes the last 3 regular season games and the Chiefs playoff game. Cook simply ran out of gas.

There are no must have’s. In fact, don’t re-sign any of them. Jones and Floyd are good players but they’re in their 30’s. I want our team to get younger, especially on defense.

I'm not giving them my ratings either. The NFL wants the Chiefs to go to the SB because of the ratings Taylor Swift and her Swifties generate. The officiating crew for today’s AFC Championship Game is being led by Shawn Smith means the league wants the Chiefs to win. Smith has heavily favored the road team in recent years. NFL home teams have about a 50% win percentage. But in games called by Smith over the past couple of years, it's 40.8 percent. They have a ref in their rotation who is a MASSIVE edge to road teams. Road teams win at the #1 highest rate with Smith. He penalizes home teams in ways no other ref does. The NFL is becoming a joke. Pretty soon you’ll be seeing other NFL players date mega stars because they know that gives their team a better chance to win.

There’s 6 WR’s under contract next season. Diggs, Shakir, Harty, Shorter, Isabella, and Hamler. I expect us to lose Davis and Sherfield to Free Agency, and Harty to be released to free up cap space, which means we need to replace 3 WR’s on the active roster next season. According to the Bills depth chart on Ourlads website, Shorter is the direct backup to Diggs at LWR which means we’re set there, but we have no starter or backup depth at RWR, which means we need to add 2 new RWR’s. I’ve got Isabella replacing Harty as a backp Slot Receiver to Shakir which means we’re set at SWR. I don’t have Hamler making the 53 man roster, but will make the PS. Having said that, I expect us to draft a RWR and add a budget friendly veteran Free Agent RWR like Kendrick Bourne or Josh Reynolds. in summary, I’ve got our WR core to look something like this next season LWR: Diggs and Shorter SWR: Shakir and Isabella RWR: Bourne or Reynolds and a Rookie

I'll be there with my son and nieces who flew are flying in from Miami. Section 308. Since the Chargers have nothing to play for, I don't expect there to be much Chargers fans in attendance. There's a good chance half of the fans or more are Bills Mafia. It'll feel like a home game.

I believe McD's job is safe even if we lose the majority of our games left on our schedule and miss the playoffs. I can envision Pegs judging McD based on his overall job performance since he got hired in 2017 and determine McD should be given another chance for the following reasons... 1. McD made the playoffs in 5 of 7 seasons except for Allen's rookie season in 2018 and 2023. 2. Injuries to key players on defense (Milano, White, and Jones) which was a top 2 defense in the league prior to their injuries and nearly last in the league since then. Also, for having a lot of injuries throughout the season. 3. Pegs will blame Dorsey for part of McD's struggles. Pegs will see an offense that improved with Brady since Dorsey got fired. 4. McD struggled because he had too much on his plate by not having a Defensive Coordinator that can help lighten the load so he can focus on being a Head Coach. Pegs will hire a DC next season, and a Special Teams Coach too. Having said that, I believe the only ways McD and quite possibly Beane too (since they're a package deal) are no longer on the Bills next season is if one or both accepts a job offer from ''Bandcamp'' aka the Carolina Panthers, or Allen tells Pegs McD gotta go.

Release Von, Tre, Knox, Harty, Hines, Morse, and Taron Johnson. Swallow the cap hit in 2024 and replace them with young affordable players. Addition by subtraction.

I'd trade Gabe Davis and a draft pick to Indy for Michael Pittman Jr. Pittman is unhappy with the way he's being used in Indy. He's got upside, is good at everything, only 26 years old, 6'4 and 220 lbs, and is in the final year of a budget friendly contract that fits in perfectly with the limited cap space we have. If he plays well for us we also have the option to sign him to a long term contract.

Bench Davis. Davis isn’t reliable and is extremely limited as to what he can do on the field as a pass catcher. The reason why Davis plays so much is because he blocks well, but other than that he’s useless since opposing defenses takes away what he does best which is go deep. Replace Davis with Sherfield who can run the route tree, has much better hands and is faster than Davis, and like Davis is an above average blocker. Bench Knox. Another unreliable player with bad hands. Not explosive. Has regressed. Much more pre-snap movement Allow Josh to call plays ala Jim Kelly. Need speed on the field. Harty, Sherfield, and Isabella. Ty Johnson as RB2. Ditch the 12 personnel.

This team has more holes than Swiss cheese, there's no quick fix.

good grief