ghostwriter

I like Baker's attitude, he is fiesty and competitive. Other people see 'character issues', I see swagger! The trade up then the trade down scenario mitigates all risks involved. 21 + 53 to Oakland for Mayfield and then pray to God that Lamar Jackson is there at 22 and somebody wants to move up for him. Could recoup a 2nd and a 3rd back, maybe even an early 2nd that is higher than the 53rd pick we hypothetically dealt to Oakland. 1.) Mayfield 2.) 2.) 3.) 3.) 3.) Franchise QB or not, even if Mayfield busted, we would not be set back at all. No risk, high reward. We get our QB and we fill our holes.

I want Baker Mayfield at 10, I think he'll be there, the price won't be too bad at that point.

It has to be Josh Allen.

Baker Mayfield is absolutely who I'm praying for in a trade up to 10. I'd like to trade down from 22 and recoup the lost draft picks though. Wouldn't mind Rudolph or Lauletta in the 3rd on top of Mayfield at 10.

I pretty much agree with you on everything except how far we move up. We are in full agreement that we need a QB, dare I say it, take two! It's just who, when and where?

I'm in the trade up/trade down crowd. One of the top 4 will fall to #10, I think it's going to be Baker Mayfield IMO. Height concerns, character concerns etc. I think he falls. Trade up: 21, 53 and our 3rd next year to Oakland for #10, take Baker Mayfield. Trade down: Deal 22 for a 2nd and a 3rd, recoup all the draft picks we lost in the trade up. The result: We got a top 10 QB practically for free. 21 and 22 can be used strategically, we can move up and down while losing next to nothing.

Why spend more than you have to? Nobody really distinguishes themselves this year. One of the top 4 will fall to 10, I call BS that 4 QBs go by the time Oakland is on the clock. Once again 21 + 53 and maybe our 3rd next year will get us to #10. Turn around take Baker Mayfield and be done with it. Trade down from 22 and recoup all the picks we lost in our trade up.

I never said we don't draft one, I'm firmly against trading the farm for one. I'd trade up in the right scenario. 21 + 53 could get us up to 10-12, would probably have to give up a 2019 pick as well. That's about as high as I'd like to see us go. Maybe Mayfield or Rosen slide a few spots due to character concerns.

This draft is loaded at just about every weakness we have. We could probably walk away with 2 LBs, 2 DTs that start Day 1. I'm not against QB in RD1, I'm not against trading up for one either, I just wouldn't trade the farm for one. It comes down to the risk/reward ratio. Giving up 21 and a 1st next year to move to 7-10 is a lot more acceptable than trading 3 1st and 2 2nds to move up to #2 in a draft class where I just don't see a Peyton Manning or an Andrew Luck, I just don't see a prospect like that. Sure there are good prospects, but no generational talents. I really like Josh Allen and there are talks about him going #1 and that guy's bust potential is through the roof. I don't think the risk to reward ratio is good for a massive trade up.

Let's take the 33% odds for example and let's say you're playing scratch off tickets. Would you rather have 1 ticket at a 33% chance or 5 tickets with a 33% chance? (Although the odds of finding a franchise QB is far slimmer than drafting other positions and our chances of finding starters would be greater than 33% along with 5x more chances to find good players.)

I doubt Chicago would trade up for Trubisky again, which is all you need to know.

I've shown you statistics that provide examples as to what other teams have done. Why not learn from the mistakes of other people so you don't make the same mistakes yourself? 33% chance at best to find a franchise QB if we trade the farm for to get into the top 5. Or we could take those 5 picks in the top 65 selections and build our own version of the Legion of Boom.

When is the last time we've had this many picks? We can literally load up and build a powerhouse. Trading that away for nothing, why do it? I could see moving up 8-10 spots because that would not put a dent in our capital, but moving in the top 10 like some want is irresponsible.

Well, take Goff, Wentz and Watson off the list then, which makes my reasoning behind this thread even more meaningful. Fans want to trade the farm for a QB when the odds of landing a franchise guy is 33% at best.

Well, let me put it this way, do you think Chicago would make the same trade today that they did a year ago for Trubisky?

Fair enough, maybe I'm letting my personal opinion get in the way on that, but I really don't think so, he sucks.

Out of the teams that traded up for 1st round QBs in the past 10 years: 2017: Chicago for Mitchell Trubisky Kansas City for Patrick Mahomes Houston for Deshaun Watson 2016: Los Angeles for Jared Goff Philadelphia for Carson Wentz 2015: no one. 2014: Johnny Manziel Teddy Bridgewater 2013: no one. 2012: Washington gave up the farm for RG3. 2011: nobody. 2010: nobody. 2009: Tampa Bay traded to #17 for Josh Freeman. 2008: Nobody So out of the 9 QBs taken: 33% have been great. (Wentz, Goff, Watson) 44% have been busts. (Freeman, RG3, Trubisky, Manziel) 22% the jury is still out on. (Bridgewater, Mahomes)

You didn't hear about this first in one of your high level meetings, did you?

If he's so good, why didn't he beat out Andy Dalton?

The guaranteed money doesn't seem too bad, but is he really better than Tyrod? I don't think so, I'd rather just draft one.

I'd rather Foles be a draft day trade or no trade at all. I don't want to give up a 2nd for him, what happens if one of the big 4 comes tumbling down the board and we want to move up? 21 + 53 gets us up to 12, I think that's best case scenario for us and very realistic.

They finally understand the importance of sitting a rookie QB on the bench for a year. Good on them for not feeding Allen to the wolves. Taylor is a nice bridge, they should win more games this year. He is much better than Kizer, that's for sure!

There are some very good QB prospects this year, but I don't see a guaranteed home run guy. I understand if Andrew Luck or a Carson Wentz guy is sitting there, but I just don't feel that way about any of them, they all have flaws. Good prospects this year, not great, no one sticks out to me.

How do you justify taking a QB in the top 3, when you are on record saying that we are more than one player away? The media would cannibalize McBeane if they gave up every single pick we own for one player. Especially in a draft where there is no Matt Ryan or Carson Wentz prospect. I think we'll wait until one of the top 4 guys falls through the cracks and we move 21 + a 2nd what's left. They could just stay put and draft Rudolph or trade for Foles, who knows? I just think that Mayfield will drop and he will be way too hard to pass up on.

I am taking Beane and McDermott at their word. They may trade up, but I don't think it will be a colossal trade. I don't think it's a smokescreen, I believe them, some GMs and coaches are straight shooters, I think Beane and McDermott are one of them.