pennstate10

A quality WR2 is going to get a $12-15 million per year contract. You could push some of that into the future, but then 2025-26 become worse cap years. I don’t think Bills have cap space to sign a quality WR2, and other minor FA pickups or resigning (DL, S). Bills could sign a lesser quality FA WR, which is what I think they do.

TM doesn’t play on defense and his ST play doesn’t even warrant the vet minimum. It drives me nuts that we have older, “elite” ST players but don’t have close to elite ST play. Have younger players play ST.

I don’t think either Chop Robinson or Adissa Issac are first round talents. Both round 2-3 guys. Abdul Carter is moving to DE this coming year. HE is a first round edge player. Re: WR. If Franklin is there at 28, he’s a steal. Someone mentioned a similar skill set to Desean Jackson. I think this is mostly correct. Both smooth gliders. But Franklin doesn’t have Jackson short area quickness.

Dalton K . has entered the chat

Your source may well be correct, but most of Bill reporters and NFL observers state that Jones should be a top priority for Bills to resign. I guess we’ll learn within a month.

If your source is correct, I’d guess that Jones has a nice house in Nashville, where he played for 8 years. Not impossible to imagine that he agreed with family to live in Bflo during the season and then go back to a home in Nashville. I’ve never lived in Nashville but I’d guess that winters there are more pleasant than Bflo.

So, I'm going to double down, and say that not only is this graph useless, the entire premise of "clutch" QB is not really useful. Lets consider football vs baseball. Football is a team game. Baseball is a series of 1 on 1 (pitcher vs batter) competitions. So, yes, baseball may have "clutch" players. But, as a team game, football has clutch TEAMS, not QBs. The current KC Chiefs and the 2000-2020 Pats were clutch TEAMS. The Bills, sad to say, are not currently a clutch TEAM. They may be in the future, but they are not now. To consider how silly it is to talk about a clutch QB, lets think about SB XXV. If Norwood hits a field goal (which, basically, was the same as flipping a coin), then Kelly is suddenly a "clutch" QB who guided his team to a last minute SB victory. But Kelly has nothing whatsoever to do with Norwoods kick. Hes watching on the sidelines, just like the rest of us. Or as discussed above, if McD defense performs better in 13 sec in 2021, then Josh is suddenly a better, more clutch QB. Really? Or if Diggs catches a long ball in 2023, Josh is suddenly a better QB. It makes far more sense to talk about clutch TEAMS, not players. The facts are that Allen is an excellent QB, who typically gives his team a chance to win. So is Mahomes. Yet this graph suggests that Josh is unicorn good, while Mahomes is well below average. One of the 3 very worst QBs in the league, per this graph. Does no one else have a problem with this? The chart is simply garbage, but because good old Kurt has GraphPad prism to make fancy charts, this is all of a sudden the gospel truth. SMH

Why would you use any measurement if it doesn’t help you analyze a decision? Thats pretty clearly what op was saying. Using this great measurement, he concludes that Josh Allen is the greatest thing since sliced bread. While Mahomes is garbage. I’m a huge Allen fan, and think Mahomes is a whiner. But facts are facts, and this measurement is useless. It drives me nuts that some folks think they’ve discovered a new science named “analytics “. Which is simply probability and statistics rebranded. and most of the analytics I see fail to validate their tools. The first post in this thread is a good example.

My point still stands. Any time someone comes up with a new metric, ie “Win probability added per dropback”, you should ask yourself, how is this calculated? And more importantly, has this been shown to be predictive on an independent data set? Until I see evidence that this measurement is truly predictive, I’ll consider it useless.

Lies damn lies and statistics. Any “clutch” metric that places Mahomes in the bottom 20%tile is severely flawed. This should be obvious. Just because someone makes a chart and puts it on Twitter doesn’t mean it’s useful.

49ers definitely made the wrong call. Bills Eagles not. So clear. Rules in regular season are different, and Bills had the win in hand if Davis turned the right way.

I wonder if the length of that throw affected Diggs timing and eye hand coordination. im sure Diggs has lot of practice timing and catching 40-50 yd throws. But how much experience does anyone have at catching 65 yd throws?

Wait a second here. This is a family friendly board. None of your porn antics here.

Ahh, not so sure Butler is a good coach. He was DB coach at PSU, hired partly on the recommendation of Bill OBriens strength coach. Then promoted to DC because OB was too lazy to do a search. Failed miserably as a DC and would throw players under the bus. Then went to Texans with OB but fired as his unit performed poorly. Then hired by his high school buddy McDermott. Seems to me the guys floats by on his buddies coattails. And before someone chimes in that he did a great job coaching up Tre, Hyde, and Poyer—they were all on team for at least one season before Butler started. The only DB to develop under Butler was Taron Johnson.

Oh jeez, not this ish again…

To be clear, there is absolutely zero chance that Josh is traded or released this offseason. Zero. Zip. Nada. is it possible that Diggs gets released or traded? Maybe. Or at least that’s what the internet says. So these aren’t equal situations.

Ahh, I’m not sure that touches the Lamonica trade.

Why does Brady look 2-4 inches taller than Josh in this clip?

Actually Chiefs receivers dropped quite a few throughout the season. The reversed that trend in the divisional game and had zero drops against the Bills.

I like your top 10, but I’m pretty sure Penix ends up pushing one of those guys out. There’s always at least one QB who surprises and gets picked top 10. I like the Bills picks, provided Bullick runs a 4.5 or better. I’m not sure he’s got adequate straight line speed.

Agree that Jones is the most important guy on this list. But I think he has 2 good years left at most.

I haven’t read this thread but I will predict some dweeb will be saying, “well, the analytics say if you go for a first down on both of those plays you increase your win% to 53.472%. That’s the crux of the entire analytics problem. Going for it on 4th dandy 5 at your 30 yd line when you have Mahomes and Kielce playing against some scrubs is a world different than Goff and whoever against the 49ers defense. But the analytics doesn’t know how to properly weigh situations when there are infinite relevant variables.

Sorry you’re wrong. The amount of cap dollars Bills have rolled over in the past few years is minimal. I doubt any competitive team has rolled over more than 10% of the cap during their successful years. The teams that roll over 10% of the cap are the losing teams that don’t have good players to pay. If you’re trying to argue that Beane SHOULD have been rolling cap dollars over every year since 2018, I’d say rolling cap dollars into the future when you’re in Allen’s peak window is not a wise move. Every team pushes cap money into the future. That’s the entire concept of amortizing bonuses. I’m pretty sure that no bonuses paid in 2018 are factored into Bills 2024 cap.

The flaw in this line of reasoning is the assumption that most NFL head coaches are drawn from the NFL player pool. They’re not. Bellichek, Lombardi, and Walsh are probably the 3 best NFL HC of the modern era. They collectively played zero downs in the NFL. What is true is that almost all NFL HC played high school football. Or lower level college football. That is the real pool that’s being drawn from.

Im pretty sure that is exactly what will happen.