BuffaloBillyG

Sounds fun. I'm expecting to be 0 for 10...but my hot take picks are bolded above!

Step 1: Trade for Hopkins Step 2: Trade Hopkins BACK to Arizona for Ertz Step 3: ??? Step 4: Super Bowl. Beane plays the long game and finally gets his guy.

I have to wonder if they get a nice package of picks for the #3 pick if it would soften their stance even further of what they would take for Hopkins. I'm sure they would still want what they feel is good value...but it doesn't "make or break" their draft to take slightly less at t hat point to get that contract gone.

Off this list I went with Steve Avila. I would love to have a nice power IOL to add to this OL. Feel like it would bring some nasty that McD is looking for. I get the folks that selected WR, however feels like in this scenario the Bills addressed the spot. Not sure I like any of the DTs at this spot either.

Very solid looking Mock. Well thought out. I think this year we see a lot of unexpected picks. I know we talked about him yesterday and you aren't as sold on him...But O'Cyrus Torrence just SCREAMS Detroit at 18 for me. Even more so if they manage a small trade back into the early to mid 20s. Talk about a guy with Dan Campbell DNA. They have a need at RG and at least there (as opposed to here in Buffalo) he is a great fit for their scheme. He was also one of their top 30 visits...brought in late last week just before visit time was over. Hmm. Gibbs to Philly is a pretty scary thought as well. Great fit. All in all great work as usual. Mocking this year is no easy task. Hope your picks hit!

The Bills got several seasons of high volume play on a cheap rookie contract and will likely recoup a 3rd round pick in the trade in. While it's always more optimal for you to hit on your 1st rounders and see them get a second contract with your team...that really isn't bad value for what they got. Had Edmunds signed a low ball 1 year prove it deal and there was no 3rd rounder coming back...then yeah I'd see your point.

You make a lot of valid and not untrue statements here but I feel like there is another train of thought that proves differently. We have seen teams like the Jets and Dolphins for YEARS throw rosters together with elite free agents. Seems like every big name FA is linked to or signs with one of them. They have elite players...but are not elite as a team. It's a bunch of great players that don't compliment each other with a huge revolving door both at the player level and coaching level. There is a lack of on field leadership and team chemistry which leads to being mediocre. We saw the same thing here in Buffalo under Whaley. Added good players be it a fit or not. The Bills on the other hand have a lot of good players that form to make a great team. Hyde and Poyer are an excellent example of this. On their own I don't know if either reaches the heights they have together. It's that way in a lot of the position rooms. Yes, the team has holes and needs upgrades. But they guys they do have are close and their skillset compliments each other well. That bring them up some levels in my opinion. The pieces put in place here for the most part fit what we do and that makes the machine run smoother so to speak.

I actually know of such a team. The Buffalo Bills. It's not crazy to think that Ed steps up in a contract year. Players have done this forever. Ed does seem like the kind of guy that will show out for a big payday. So if you are Brandon Beane...why would you deal him away in a contract year after investing a high pick and 4 years into his development? If he does step up with a great season it would be in our best interest that he does so wearing our laundry and not another teams. If he prices himself out of Buffalo (which may happen with a good year) we still may see that same 3rd or 4th round pick as a comp pick that people here are convinced he could fetch on the open trade market this season. And frankly speaking I would rather get that pick in next years draft class over this years anyway. The only investment is the cap space this year but even with that trading him won't come without the cost of replacing him...which may eat up half of that amount right off the bat. And going cheaper with the draft just means you're losing more draft capitol to fill a hole you created yourself. I would say it's much more likely to see an Oliver extension than trade.

I actually like Ryan Leaf. Guy has really matured and come into his own after his NFL career sputtered. Tons of respect for the guy for the way he turned his life around and became a better person. That said a one eyed grasshopper in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean standing on a piece of driftwood would make a better pick than this.

I feel like we need to know if the bones were from flats, drums or a mixture of the two before we know if we should take this seriously.

Gentlemen, I just want to thank you for the well stated replies and excellent points you bring to the table. Not just on this subject...but everyday. I believe my biggest weakness when it comes to seeing players is I'm more of an "old hat" what does the film say guy. Never have gotten into the metrics and how they play in and I suspect I never really will. So it's great to have access to people that can and do take the other side of the isle and can raise points I wouldn't normally consider. Like I tell my kids...every opportunity is a learning opportunity. I still would be thrilled with Torrence at 27 because of the game footage. He can play. But, I'll also concede that it may be risky and there may be guys that bring what he does to the table a bit later. I have seen some Steen and like him as well. I see the Spain comparison as well. I think that's actually pretty accurate. And this is what's been odd about the offensive build for the Bills under McDermott and Beane to me. It's like they want to "build a bully" and dip their toes in every once in a while...then get scared to commit and go back to modern offensive thinking. Not only with the OL but kind of all over the board with RBs too. Bringing in Ivory, Tolbert, Gore type power runners...then walking it back with guys like Hines, Cook and Singletary. They have waffled back and forth so long that we really don't have any identity on O other than Josh Allen and Diggs.

Just saw this response and thank you for the clarification of the thought process on Torrence. I know Incognito had a pretty high RAS...in the 9.5 range if memory serves. Saffold in the mid high 7s-mid 8s? I think a large part of his success in the NFL will be what kind of support he gets at the NFL level. While you are correct in saying it could go very wrong for him I feel like he's a kid that needs the right people around him (coaches, trainers, conditioning and teammates) to flourish at the next level. I'd be surprised if he were the pick at 27, but optimistic that they can get the most out of him with what we have in place. I don't think he will be there at 27, let alone 59.

Well, both @GunnerBill and @MrEpsYtown are very highly respected members of the community and have some great knowledge and insight. I also enjoy seeing their perspectives on players coming out as well as their scouting and grading takes. This board is a better place due to their insights, and that's not debatable lol. My question for them would be when scoring him...is it the player that you aren't high on or the player in Buffalo's scheme? As it sits with what the Bills have done in the past with the type of OL they take and their blocking schemes...I would actually agree with them that his fit with what the Bills have done and looked for is not ideal. It's quite the opposite, actually. And that's the reason I like him for Buffalo. We have a lot of the high RAS scorers. Guys with athletic traits that are through the roof. Spencer Brown is a prime example. While I still feel like Brown may turn the corner at some point...a plug and play mauler would bring a different skillset to this line. A guy that would absolutely push the pile, is a very capable pass blocker and brings some edge would be a very strong move IMO. He would also likely play RG, which is where Allen almost always pushes to on those 3rd and 4th and short sneaks. Could really be an asset with proper conditioning. And this isn't to say Gunner or Eps are wrong at all. Torrence may very well be a square peg in a round hole on this team. But insanity is doing the same thing time after time and not getting the results you are looking for. At some point it's time for fresh concepts and new thought processes by Beane and McD.

Not for nothing and something to keep in mind. The 2 NFL comparisons I've seen on Torrence the most have been Saffold and Incognito. Both guys were coached and had really solid success under Kromer at points in their career. The "sloppy body type" comment that Campbell made seemed a bit weird. However, the Bills have one of the top end training and nutrition staffs in the NFL and I'd be confident they can assist there. I haven't heard anything about him being particularly unmotivated or lazy, so my hunch is that he can turn that around. The body comment on Torrance reminds me somewhat of the chatter about Jordan Davis from last year close to the draft. I believe Torrence would be a solid pick...however I think he will be gone before pick 27.

I actually thought Christian Ponder was going to surprise a lot of people.

With the perceived lack of top end talent in round 1, team draft boards are all very different this year. This will lead to a TON of talk about teams "reaching" and many of the guys mocked in the 12-20 range will still be on the board when the Bills pick. This includes at least 1 of the top 4 mentioned QBs and wouldn't shock me to see either Levis or Richardson drop out of round 1 altogether.

That's a whole lotta words to basically say "We don't know what we have yet" Demonstrated performance from 2 years ago is a wild concept. Cole Beasley in 2023 is not likely the same player he was in 2020 and early 2021. That's like saying Shady McCoy should be brought back because he demonstrated that he played better a few years back than Cook and Harris did last year. If we want to talk most recent performance, Did Cole Beasley make the Buffalo Bills a better football team last year? What was his impact? My short form answers to those questions are "No and NONE". Also, honest question here on something you bring up about Shakir. I was under the impression that the book on him was actually the opposite. He excelled against zone but struggled getting separation against man coverage? I actually though most of his played he did make last year were against zone concepts. Is there some information that you have read/seen that contradicts that and if so, could you either link or let me know where to find that info? Not calling you out or anything...I would just be interested in seeing what you are with Shakir.

Remember last off season when the Broncos traded for Russ Wilson? All the pundits getting all whirled up thinking that the Denver Broncos were poised to take down the KC Chiefs in the AFC West? The though process was solid. -Wilson is a top end QB -Man, the Broncos have some WEAPONS with Sutton, Jeudy and a good young RB in Williams -Solid Defense See anything eerily similar about AR to the Jets? I sure do. One thing that is consistent between the 2...A LARGE reason the Denver season imploded was the complete ineptitude their offense showed between their aging QB and their playcalling. Who is calling the plays for the Jests this year? Yes, the same Nate Hackett that oversaw that horrible Bronco offense. And yes, Hackett was "the OC for Rodgers" in Green Bay...but he was not the one making the calls on offense. Game still has to be played on the field, of course. But there are just as many reasons to speculate that the Jests will implode under the pressure as they will contend for the division. If they start out slow that media will turn on Rodgers with the speed of a Don Beebe running down Leon Lett.

Well, I have to respect his mindset and belief in himself. It's actually pretty common for an athlete to be the last one to know when his time is up, however. I'm sure he can still see himself making plays in his mind. Especially coming from a guy that has been told over and over that he can't do it. This is where he's always proven the critics wrong. But simply put he's not that guy anymore. He may have been the most productive slot WR the Bills ever had. But that was a couple years back and time marches on. The only issue at slot right now is that it is an uncertain position. Shakir? Harty? Sheffield? A rookie? We don't know WHAT we have there. However there is good reason to be hopeful that one of those guys steps into a meaningful role and can at least come near matching what the 2020 version of Beasley was able to do.

To be fair, I believe there are disconnects from reality on both sides of the argument. Certainly the cap as it sat this year was restrictive. However there are still big dollar moves that Beane COULD have made (and still can) that for whatever reason they have chosen not to. Using the Over The Cap estimates the Bills could still clear the following off the cap this year: White restructure: $5.8M Dawkins restructure: $6.4M Morse restructure: $3.3M (and a Morse cut or trade saves $8M against the cap) Bates restructure :$1.9M Extensions for Jones and Taron Johnson clear a few more million off the cap this year. And of course the ever popular fan obsession: Oliver trade: $10.7M Now while I will agree that making all of these moves isn't in the longterm best interest of the team to wring our collective hand and cry poverty isn't completely true either. Understanding that Beane is planning for next year and the year after just as much as this year when it comes to cap space. But at some point just getting to the playoffs and being competitive isn't going to cut it for Pegula IMO. Not when he's watching the guy he coveted (and reportedly was talked out of getting by McDermott) in Mahomes bounce the Bills from the playoffs and winning championships.

Well with the way the draft looks right now...I think there are a lot of positions that are going to be team specific as to who is drafted at what spot. The "experts" mock drafts will be in complete shambles. After maybe the 18th or 19th pick many of the guys selected will likely have round 1 grades by some teams and a 3rd or 4th rounder by others. My prediction is there will be a LOT of guys taken that the Mel Kipers of the world throw the word "reach" out there after the pick. And they will be baffled at some of the guys that they love sliding a complete round or 2 later then they predicted. But teams will grade based on their systems and different guys will get taken over more popular picks. We see it to some extent every year...but I think this year is going to be insane with unexpected picks and late 1st round trades. Buffalo may be in an EXCELLENT spot to trade back.

For me, there are 2 guys I want. And the BOTH come from Florida. 1. O'Cyrus Torrance OG. I know he doesn't fit the mold of a Beane OL pick. That's entirely the point. We need someone that brings a little something different to this line. We have enough of the high RAS score, uber potential linemen on the roster. McD said he wanted an edge to this team. Torrance is that guy. A road grading run blocker who never gave up a sack in his college career? SIGN ME UP for that! Kromer has coached these types of guards before...including Incognito and Saffold. He can definatly be worked in. 2. Gervon Dexter DT. Another Florida product that would bring some surge to the middle of the defense...much like Jordan Phillips in his first go around with the Bills. These 2 guys would bring some nasty to our lines...which is something I would love to see, If we get one of them I would be happy. (I've already come to terms with the likelyhood of a WR in the first or second, so not likely we take both).

Using a different mindset would lead to common sense leading in a different direction IMO. Let's think this through fully here. You have a play that while showing flashes has not been consistent enough to justify a huge contract. Stinks, but hey it happens. SO who is trading for him and what's his value? In my mind, there is no team that will move a first round pick or even a second rounder on a player like that. A third? I mean maybe but I would still say as a 1 year rental at $10M (which is what Ed would be as he wants that huge contract he hasn't really earned) I don't see his value any higher than a conditional 4th. Maybe lower. So this is where a GM has to think of the situation. Worst case scenario, Ed falls flat on his face. Still wants big money and we let him walk. Second scenario, Ed balls out in a contract year like so many others have. Maybe he even prices himself out of the Bills plans. Now, we are looking at a very solid 3rd round comp pick in addition to him having a monster year this year. That's a win. Best case scenario, the light clicks on, Ed balls out and we get him under contract for long term and see him reach new levels of his play. Tha's a win. Yes, the cap relief this year would be nice, but Oliver strikes me as that type of guy that really shows up at contract time. Not saying that in a bad way. Just saying that this is the year for him to earn a new contract somewhere. He's going to be more motivated than we have ever seen. Rather take that chance he will break out for us than some other team.

Beane really has never been the kind of GM to talk up a player. There is always a ton of truth in his statements and how he addresses what he sees in a player with the media. No, he doesn't throw guys under the bus at all...but he doesn't gush about guys either. I take his statement about Brown (as well as Davis and Oliver) pretty close to face value. I also think that the guard position has question marks still. I would say McGovern is close to a lock to start at LG. Then you have Bates who you say is not great and Edwards who is coming off a down year with the Rams that was ended by injury. I still see the benefit of adding talent there as it would free Bates up to back up all 3 IOL spots. If Edwards steps up, great. If not that spot is open again.

The only issue I have with this thought process is it takes Taron Johnson off the field and replaces him with...who? Johnson is very solid against the run. Until White returns to form (assuming he does) or Elam takes a step forward Johnson would be our best CB IMO. Taking him off the field for a 3rd LB would really weaken the defense IMO.