BeginnersMind

We will see, but he's always been lukewarm on Biden running, even last time. Obama will probably sit out the primary and then fire up the machine for the general election.

Obama's statement of "support" today is tepid at best.

The message of this video, that Trump's soft condemnation of Charlottesville was alarming, is one I agree with. But it's hardly *the* defining moment of the last 2 years and to make it the focus of an initial campaign video is dumb as hell. Not that videos like this mean a ton, but man to have this as the initial "I'm running" video is all wrong. The music. The talking to the camera, making his campaign about the other guy, etc. Just awful--and I kind of like Biden’s chances as a centrist candidate. I compared to a few others of these rah rah videos and Biden's is the worst one by far. The best one is Booker's.

The media is obsessed with his sexuality but he talks about kitchen table stuff in the speeches I’ve seen. The Pence attack is what it is—an attack on a guy who is against gay rights by a gay candidate—but it’s not his focus. He’s gay, but mostly he’s pretty folksy. He’s untested and not yet vetted, but worth watching. Comparing him to another no name who became president, Mayor Pete is not a lecturer-on-high in Obama’s style and that’s more his appeal than anything else. Can the battleground states vote for him is all the Dems should be asking. Because with Bernie, the answer is no.

Unverified but it sounds true: The National Popular Vote site says that the two candidates in 2016 only campaigned in 16 states as it was. I’m surprised it was so many. I bet Trump had many more than Hillary.

The Ds are taking over the state of PA and have flipped a lot of districts following the gerrymander fix. They are controlling the campaigns, and getting themselves out there leading dialogues. The flipping happens at the state level and flows upwards--so fixing the gerrymandering has turned PA a lot more blue. Could PA be a blue state at every level and still vote for Trump? Yes--but team Trump is in PA today because it's freaking out about what's happened to PA since the last cycle. Trump desperately needs to hold on to the slim margin he got in 2016. Again, his map to 270 requires a repeat. The Dems have more ways to win (and Bernie can screw it up for sure!).

Good point there. I don’t know if that National Popular vote allocation agreement will be in place by 2020. But it’s close though with 189 electoral vote states committed and 72 more vote states where it’s been passed in one chamber of their legislative body—and though it’s dominated by blue states, OK and AZ are almost there and would flip the election if the totals favor the Dem candidate again.

No it’s not.

The Ds understand they can easily lose this time around. They may well lose but they are resigned to the probabilities this time. No one will take anything for granted in 2020.

The Deep State made me open another username to add to my list of identities. They care that much about PPP.

Moving the bases of either party isn't winning this election. Winning the middle wins this election. Trump will likely lose PA this time around because they did away with their gerrymandered goofiness. If you make Michigan and Wisconsin battleground states and everything else is the same as 2016, the map looks like this: The Rs could maybe flip VA on that map (or I guess possibly retain PA, though that's a lot less likely and the national R leadership is in Harrisburg today because they are so alarmed by what they are forecasting for PA), while the Ds have a lot more opportunity to flip states. The map for Trump requires a repeat. The map for Ds has way more options. But that's why Bernie is such a crap candidate for them. He cannot, in my estimation, flip any of AZ, FL, MI, WI, OH, NC, GA. Biden, however could, and he needs to only flip only a couple of them, or the right one (OH or FL).

This is the big win for him. What he’s on the verge of doing with China is simply awesome. It’s not getting as much coverage as it should but it’s bigger than any of the rest of what he’s been up to and it will have longer term positive effects on the economy than anything an American president has done since NAFTA.

My point is that Trump has more or less one way to win and that is to repeat his run of states in the middle. He largely won those because Hillary, against the advice of even her husband who knows a thing or two, arrogantly took them for granted. The Dems won’t do that this time. They will fight harder for those. Whether they have a candidate who can win them is the real story. I agree with you that Sanders is not that guy. Biden, however, could be. And I keep saying it because I am still in disbelief, but who knows if Mayor Pete is for real and what he might do. I am shocked that he’s even in the conversation. If the Dems want to go for a new face, he’s that.

Bernie is north of 70 with a net worth of 2M. Not exactly swimming in luxury. Not poor either. It does look like it will be white guys again. None of the women can get traction this time around. Same with the people of color. For Dems with an eye towards actually beating Trump, that’s fine. But they need someone who can win the rust belt states. The next nominee will not make Clinton’s error there. The Dems are trying to make a different mistake this time in sending out an avowed socialist to middle America. If that happens, I hope it fails miserably, as I expect it will.

Trump must win the same way he won last time. His formula hasn’t changed. If a Dem can win only a few of PA, OH, MI, and WI...Dems win. Florida also always possible. Biden plays well in those states vs Trump, but I don’t think he can win the primary. He’s too centrist.

Rubio was the big leader at this point in 2015, by comparison. And Jeb had $100 million raised and was just getting going in what looked like would be an extremely strong bid to be our next president. But Bernie should be leading by a wide margin in his back yard. If he lost NH, he’d be in big trouble. Bernie, Biden, and the guy who’s stolen all the wannabe contenders Mayor Pete...seem to be the real contenders at the moment. Bernie should have the inside track on the nomination but Biden would do much better against Trump. No idea what Mayor Pete could do. He’s a complete wildcard, and I thank him for that. Biden and Bernie are shows I’ve seen before.

Even that’s more than DR will admit to believing! I’m paid well by the Deep State to be here. I am under no illusions about this, or the previous, emperor’s nudity. I am also under no illusions about about both of their positive contributions, and on balance, Trump is way ahead of BO on that.

Nope. It’s not ok. Two wrongs don’t make a...oh yeah, you can’t admit there are possibly two wrongs because you have your uniform on.

Ladies and gents, your reigning and forever world champion of dodgeball is in the house! Quick: What really happened on 9-11?

The buzzword among the left is “free” this cycle. Biden would be smart to play the middle. That will lure the center, which includes the states where Trump is weakest. The Dems need to realize this election isn’t about winning socialist CA. It’s about Michigan, Wisconsin, Pa, and Ohio. Biden could do that. Warren, Harris, not so much. I still cant wrap my mind around Mayor Pete and if he can do the improbable.

And here I thought that the best comedy from the Mueller report would be coming from the left. Thanks to you and the billsChan gang for proving me wrong!

The groupthink position. “This report is the best when it supports my preconceived notions, except for the parts that don’t—they are lies.” The unhinged left see it and attach their faith-based theory that Barr is a paid shill and Trump is a Russian tool who colluded no matter what. And then Mueller’s report popped the Q-balloon that Mueller was working with Trump to expose the conspirators and pizzagate as well. This is trouble here but have no fear: The billsChan Borg scriptwriters are working hard on the rewrites. “Mueller is actually still on Team Trump. He laid traps for his team letting them write Volume II, which is why Volume II is full of lies. Just wait and see.” That. Is. Awesome. Seriously guys, wonderful stuff. This real Mueller reveal is coming, right? Maybe...next week?

I don’t think Trump will be bringing up any open mic moments, do you? Has Trump taught you nothing? Ignore that stuff and no. One. Cares.