Sky Diver

I never ate at Crispingas. I don’t like to eat at any restaurants that have the word “gas” in their name.

I went to the Hereford and Hops frequently.

I used to go up to Escanaba a lot. Pasties are pretty nasty. The food at the Stone House is pretty good. Lambeau is a beautiful stadium. I used to go a game in a luxury box every year. I never sat with the unwashed masses.

Don’t kick walls and windows, my son.

After the top 100, players are too inconsistent? For Darnold, Rosen and Allen it’s basically a coin flip if they will be busts or not according to QBASE. So what exactly are we learning here?

Um, and how many of the other 50% of their games are indoors? Or C, he doesn’t suck and is a tremendous talent worthy of a top pick. Check his QB rating.

The model obviously has limitations as it gave a high probability that Wentz, Watson, and others would be busts, and obviously that wasn't the case. Are statistics useful? Of course. Should they be relied upon exclusively? Of course not. Is Allen destined to be a bust because of QBASE's model. Of course, not. I doubt injury risk is in QBASE's model. A player is only valuable when he's on the field. The Jeter comparison doesn't make much sense, and he failed to get a hit 69% of the time, he didn't strike out 69% of the time.

Well, then the model is flawed. Maybe that's why it missed on Wentz?

QBASE gave Watson a 56.5% chance of being a bust. He looks pretty good this year before he was injured. QBASE makes adjustments for the quality of the offense the QB plays for the the quality of the defenses he plays against. Maybe QBASE underestimated the quality of the defenses and overestimated the quality of Allen's offensive teammates. Who knows. It's not an exact science. I'm sure that someone plays football in Alaska. Snow isn't the only factor. You are aware of the wind factor in Buffalo, right? I think that fair to say that it's easier to play in LA than Wyoming.

I don't know what their model is or what factors they might be missing. As far as weather, it's certainly a factor. It's easier to throw a football in Hawaii than Alaska from Sept to December, for example. Wentz played in ND. Pretty nasty there in winter. Maybe they aren't weighting weather enough or it's not even in their model?

If he succeeds, their model is flawed and there is a factor or weighting that they missed. The blind faith in QBASE is truly astounding.

I doubt their model has considered every possible factor. If Allen becomes a superstar, which no one can rule out, then their model is flawed and they will have to modify it. Obviously QBASE missed the mark badly on Wentz. If they are clever, they are continuously fine tuning.

I don’t know if he will be a superstar or not, but I am not going to rule it out because of QBASE.

They haven’t changed their model in 30 years? I find that hard to believe. You obviously put more faith in QBASE than I do. Fortunately for the Eagles they took QBASE with a grain of salt.

They were wrong on Wentz and perhaps they are wrong on Allen. Maybe they will have to tweak their model when Allen becomes a superstar. QBASE is fallible.

You didn't answer my question. Based on QBASE's assessment that Carson Wentz had a 61.9% of being a bust. From an analytics perspective, was it a wise move by the Eagles to trade up for Wentz?

From an analytics perspective, do you think that using the 2nd overall pick in the draft on a player that has a 61.9% chance of being a bust make sense to you?

If Philadelphia had used QBASE they would have missed out on Carson Wentz. QBASE gave him a 61.9% chance of being a bust, about the same percentage they have assigned to Allen.

They had Jackson rated the #2 QB and he went at 32.

QBASE gave Wentz a 61.9% chance of being a bust? How well did that work out? We need some analytics on the analytics.

Allen plays for the Bills and Rosen doesn't. There is a time honored tradition of poking fun at opposing players and Rosen is an easy mark

They have had some spectacular misses too, like Carson Wentz.

If you believe that the Wonderlic test, Allen is much more intelligent than EJ and JP.

So I guess we are supposed to believe that you can determine whether or not a player will succeed or fail based on one metric? Wow.

I worked out a crick this morning. I'm feeling much better now.