Richard Noggin

Looks like they're ignoring the "likely to earn" incentives? Those are around $5.6M if I recall? And they actually factor into this year's cap hit when designated that way...iirc If we're only $1M in the hole, that means we're actually $11M in the hole until June 1, when Tre's savings actually apply. Will be nice to regain that $10M for signing our draft class and for injury insurance and/or summer spending (think Floyd last season), but we don't actually realize those Tre White savings until a later date.

At some point in the 2nd half of round one or the first half of round two, there will be a historic-ish run on WRs that results in 10+ guys drafted in the first 40-50 picks. Teams would be silly NOT to get in on the WR depth during the first two days of the draft. (You have to admit, the receivers overall looked even better than advertised at the combine. Such a position of strength, despite coming in so many different sizes and shapes.)

100% understand this contingency, that a specific org might run out of "draftable" grades before the draft ends. Probably happens a lot. Love the suspicion that this happened last year so Beane immediately shifted to trading for late picks next year (which is now THIS year), possibly knowing that COVID eligibility extensions would mean the 2024 6th and 7th round board would contain better talent/draftable grades. More players were allowed to go back to school, so they did. And now they're declared for the draft. Was a predictable development. (Nice to have 10 picks...but wish they were a little better.)

Your system has major holes. As do all WR scouting metrics/systems. Your 2024 rankings have both Texas WRs REALLY low. I get that you're not exactly predicting picks, but evaluating the prospects...yet having Mitchell and Worthy both outside the top-10 WR prospects seems wild to me. I'm not a huge Worthy guy, but I do think Mitchell is potentially a sleeping giant as a future #1 WR in the NFL. And Worthy is probably better than I'm willing to admit, and definitely better in terms of draft value.

Appreciate you acknowledging the silliness of this value at almost every pick here...would be an amazing draft haul of course, but just no way...

I had a very similar first two rounds, and I'd argue, a better first two days. Like this entire draft tbh. Nubin at 129, McCaffrey at 198, and Pearsall at 206 are all hilarious. Good fun.

Don't you get the sense that Thomas is LONG gone by 28, and potentially Coleman and Mitchell are also gone? Franklin has a chance to make it, and I'd be super happy with him. Worthy I don't like as much, but obviously NFL evaluators see him at least as a consideration. There is also McConkey and Roman Wilson as non-prototype #1s, plus Baker and Polk and others who will likely go early day two. I want the Bills to come away with one of the obvious X-receiver guys, which most likely has to happen at 28.

Pulled this shot of WR prospect rankings from the Cosell segment that...differs in some ways from popular fan sentiment: Worthy and Baker ahead of Mitchell and Franklin? That's interesting, for sure.

Value was only screaming RB or LB, if I recall. Cook is halfway through his rookie deal already, and isn't the best blocker or short yardage, power back. Love Cook's talent, but there is a need for a complimentary guy who has some traits. And, in the event of injury, another guy who can attack defenses. (That being said, don't love Estime's feet tbh.) The draft is for adding cost-controlled talent on a longer timeline than next season. The Bills currently have NOTHING in the RB pipeline behind Cook. (And yet, I understand how unpopular a 3rd rd RB pick would be.)

2nd automated mock I ran resulted in 4 safeties again. Funny stuff.

🚨🚨Pump the brakes lol on Pro Football Network's simulator🚨🚨 Did a little experiment where I did NOT choose a team and just let the entire draft run, and here are Buffalo's picks (they did not trade at all). I don't think the logic of this model is buttoned up, exactly. 2 CBs and 4 Ss, and 2 RBs. Bills gonna play a 3-2-6 or even 2-2-7 defense in 2024, apparently. Kool-Aid McKinstry - CB Cole Bishop - S Blake Corum - RB DeWayne Carter - DT Demani Richardson - S Ray Davis - RB Trey Taylor - S Jay Stanley - S Jarvis Brownlee - CB Khari Coleman - LB

Really like the prospects chosen in this one, with one trade back out of the 2nd rd. Those b2b LSU DTs are pretty cool.

Who did KC get with our 1st rd pick?

Trading back out of the first is like a cheat code with PFN's simulator. Stupid value all over the place in this mock. Sign me up.

Wow would many of you HATE this one. Those first two picks are DUDES, though.

Mostly agree with this, provided they get an "alpha," "1b," "X," "potential #1 WR" type prospect (Thomas, Mitchell, Franklin, Coleman types) in 1st. Wonder when this 2nd wave of WRs (listed above) start to come off the board? Or could it just be a steady cadence of 7 or even 8 1st round WRs -- a WR selected every 4th or 5th pick? Could even bleed into the next perceived tier of prospects. We can reasonably assume someone out of the 3rd wave of Roman Wilson, Ladd McConkey, Xavier Legette, Ja'Lynn Polk, and others, will turn out to be super productive early on in their career.

This offer only valid PRE Wendy's industry-first dynamic / "surge" pricing protocols.

This isn't coming from the NFL, though. This is an NFLPA survey. It's very interesting, no doubt. It's also very subjective/skewed. So many player votes are coming from young guys who lack job security and get paid fractions of what their highly drafted, or veteran vested, teammates see in each game check. It's an almost itinerant existence for so many back half of the roster players. A random injury, or sudden trade or signing, can lead to being inactive on gameday, or waived all together. Guys can get fired several times by the same team in the same season. Yet, they're STILL paid much better than the VAST majority of people will ever be. A year or two of fringe NFL rostering can net several decades worth of median US earnings. I'm sure this blend of privilege, risk, and relentless competition can easily lead to negatively reported employee perceptions of their even richer, whiter employers. It's the nature of the NFL machine. To see positive ratings for much of anything on these surveys is no small feat.

Just a ridiculous thing to shoehorn into an otherwise useful writeup. Such a smalltown tangent.

Isn't that last, bolded block of historic breakup analogies (old Brady/New England and of course the still-young effing Beatles) ABSOLUTELY ABSURD AND HYPERBOLIC when applied to the "mutual parting of ways" of an obscure DB coach who hasn't generated squadoosh for genuine outside interest, and a successful-ish defense with multiple rising coaching talents? It's obscene. It's laughable.

Seems to me like Thomas is 100% gone at 28, and Franklin is as well unfortunately. Which leaves a likely fog of Mitchell, Coleman, Worthy, Legette, Polk, Baker, Wilson, Pearsall, (someone I'm absolutely overlooking,) etc., to choose from at WR. Which also opens the door for value at a slightly less fan-obsessed position like DT, DE, OL, etc. #28 pick will represent sneaky good value as long as Beane and Co. can hold tight. Someone worthy of the pick will be there if they can let the board fall to them. Okay, awesome, but what about the salary cap? Where does Monsieur Evans' money come from? Is it Morse? Poyer? White? 2/3? I'm willing to be talked into it tbh

No one could reasonably disagree with your vanilla characterization of Joe B's incomplete assessment of Bernard's play...but that in no way acknowledges the gratuitous Edmunds analogy I am highlighting so we don't ignore the WTF inclusion of such an arbitrary axe to grind...

Interesting (by design) piece in The Athletic by Tim Graham. WTF? So intensely out-of-touch from average Bills fans' perspectives, what even comes BEFORE the blank ad break. What comes after is downright embarrassing. The same way Buscaglia bizarrely wedges in post-hoc, un-provable Tremaine Edmunds evaluations, to then somehow reflect upon Terrel Bernard, who logged more impact plays in one half season than his predecessor did in 5 full seasons! Just bonkers, obviously disingenuous arguments being made.

While the base part of me loves just aggressively eliminating a looming roster need like this, and flipping it into a strength...I don't LOVE the likely answer to the next obvious question: how does Stephen Diggs react to the Bills very visibly giving up major draft capital to draft a SECOND 1st rd WR in 2024? Seems like you could just keep Diggs and pair him with a single young talent + Shakir + Kincaid/Knox (with Shorter and Shavers again competing for the 3rd barrier target). The obviousness of the proposed AGGRESSIVE WR grab would rely on Diggs' character to avoid disruption.