Richard Noggin

Have to vociferously disagree on your last points here. Benford, to me, screams AJ/Aaron Williams, who was/is strong and tenacious but limited athletically as a CB. Benford has plus size and strength, but meh long speed and poor agility/change-of-direction. He can maybe get by in a zone-heavy scheme outside, but might eventually actually THRIVE as a safety. Elam is nearly the opposite: he's a rangy, fast CB who is more comfortable relying on his length and speed in press-man/bump-and-run coverage. Not yet a strong tackler (although maybe better than advertised). Not yet comfortable with zone concepts and playing with his eyes instead of his hands. Really bad candidate for safety. Also a project as a zone or "off" CB.

The TB12 method.

I'll admit to being disappointed in his play prior to this season. Amazing what a contract year (and better DTs) can do to light a fire under some guys... He'll maybe never play with the sustained physicality and relentlessness that one might want out of such a supremely talented athlete, but at least we're seeing a glimpse of what they were hoping for when they moved up in the first round to draft him. He's playing well. If this means I'm eating crow, so be it.

These metrics are a welcome addition to the dialogue surrounding Elam's healthy scratch tonight. Seems like a predictable selection of posters are eager for this to be more than a coach's decision based on perceived matchups and competitive advantage. I've read some reasonable guesses at the Bills looking to employ a more zone-heavy scheme, which is not Elam's strength and DOES typically help DBs rally to stop the run. We SHOULD probably trust McD and Frazier when it comes to DB development and gameday management, no? Also, whatever they were trying to do with the secondary DID coincide with Taron Johnson apparently (to my eye) having a heck of a game. So there is that. When he's playing well this defense is playing well.

Second that. I won't pretend to know what the stats will show, but I will admit that this season I'VE finally SEEN Edmunds doing the primary thing he's allegedly been doing all along...discouraging passes to certain areas of the field based on his length (the wingspan of an effing condor) and lateral range. I've even seen him get his hands on the football once or twice. So I'd suspect that some advanced stats will bear this out?

TBH, I don't know how the Bills can cover all SEVEN (7) of those routes on any given play. You win. More Belichick 4D chess.

I tried to account for a loss like Rousseau (or Oliver, or Phillips, etc.) with the generic DL mention. And while I agree that of course ANY of our THREE (3) ONE SCORE LOSSES could have gone the other way if QB17 makes even just one more impactful play (or possibly just one fewer toxic play), it's revealing that in those losses the Bills were only outscored 74-66. It takes a LOT to beat the Bills. And it's not a simple rationalization. Football ain't simple.

This is fairly interesting. I wanted to type out a reply about Gabe Davis being more physically gifted and just less consistent, but then I looked up their RAS scores. Almost identical, with Hamlin actually scoring slightly higher. Both good size and first-10 yard 40s. Not much similar beyond that, other than relatively mediocre testing results (I'm certainly no testing fanatic; it doesn't ALL test out in the wash).

Or Poyer. With Hyde already out for the year, our defense CANNOT overcome the losses of BOTH starting, probowl safeties, the #1 CB, AND the best LB in football. Plus some other losses at CB, LB and DL. It's been effing crazy this year. But if Milano and Poyer are in there, then the defense will make its share of plays. It's difficult for me to process how well I recall Frazier's defenses performing in our early season signature wins (against legitimate offenses), with how bendy and mediocre they've looked in our most recent struggles (against meh offenses). Feels like the film came in and the NFL is now recalibrating for a statistically relevant amount of opponent snaps to study. "Figure it out or get figured out."

Poor Budda Baker. Does he have 15 tackles already lol? Poor dude seems like he's the only guy on his team who brings ANY violence... P.s. wish I had stock in Mexico Kittle jersey sales.

I was there. Just like I'll be there Thursday. Family in the Detroit area. Fun fact (if you believe me): as a junior in high school I attended this game with a handful of family members. Sat next to my Buffalo transplant uncle, and, I swear to you, at one stretch in the first half, to arrogantly demonstrate the Bills stale offensive playcalling, I luckily called/predicted ~5 consecutive Bills offensive plays down to the actual play result. I'm guessing I could reference a game script and zero in on the actual drive (absolutely involved a 5-7 yard Metzelaars pass over the middle on maybe 2nd down, but it's been a LONG time now).

The stadium for the last two home games has housed denser swaths of (NFC) opponent jerseys than I can remember seeing outside of Pittsburg games during the drought. Audible cheers and chants from opposing fans...in Orchard Park. Disappointing, but then again understandable, disloyalty by season ticket holders...reselling for matchups with fanbases who travel. Good business, bad fandom.

It's a fact. The game has not been moved due to playing conditions. It has been moved due to travel restrictions and resource allocation. Everyone out here trying to shoehorn in their favorite dome crusades. Completely unrelated.

Q: What does a dome have to do with this game getting moved? A: Nothing.

The most concerning plays, to me, were two game-changers that displayed an obvious preparation deficiency for the Bills: the backed-up, goal line sneak where Gabe Davis's motion absolutely telegraphed the snap (based on film study) AND the last, OT interception, about which Patrick Peterson admits he knew the route to undercut based on film study.

@6:45 the "hinge" pass to Diggs (during the 2-minute drill at the end of the 1st half) was unreal in person; my perspective from the SW quadrant of the stadium allowed me to really track Diggs's route, so the INSANE TRUST/ANTICIPATION of the throw was W-I-L-D in real time. I was watching Diggs run vertically up the near sideline towards us then slam on the brakes, breakdown, and begin to turn...and BAM! he got hit with the pass. I had decided to watch him work on that drive, and the trust Allen displayed by throwing the pass BEFORE/AS Diggs broke on the route was startling. It arrived like ordinance.

Doesn't bring me joy to completely agree here on both points. First, Bedford had some good, competitive snaps, and a couple impactfully bad snaps. Second, Lewis had some good snaps in the first half, and some impactfully bad snaps in the 2nd half (before Lewis, it was Johnson). Third, and not mentioned, is Edmunds's injury in the 2nd half; in the 1st he was playing his best half this season, to my eye, before re-aggravating the groin. The loss of both Hyde AND Poyer has proven to be too much to overcome when combined with theinjuries to the #1 CB and one of the starting LBs and one starting DL. That equation has proven fatal (alongside other complications).

Allen and Diggs vs the rest of the team's targets? (Hate that I'd even entertain such clickbait-y teasing from a journalist.)

"If we throw out the top two pass rushers' sack totals this d-line's sack totals would be bad." -you, for some pathological reason

Love your suggested gameplan for a Case Keenum-led offense. I might even suggest that sprinkling in more of this with QB17 at the helm might help, moving forward. Gotta force defenses to defend the entire field. With Allen at QB, we know they're already worried about defending the deep areas. Force them to defend the flats and seams, too, while ALSO forcing your gunslinger to be less myopically aggressive.

Seems like no one is discussing Josh's last 3 halves of decision making, and the sudden refusal to NOT take what the GB and NYJ defenses were giving him. Short and intermediate routes were open on many of the incompletions and interceptions in those 3 halves of bad passing offense, and Allen chose instead to be belligerently aggressive. Is it at all possible that forcing him to step back and see things objectively from the sideline for a game (or 2 or 3, god forbid) will actually help him remember what was propelling his early season ELITE play? Taking what the defenses were giving him early and often, and then as the game wears on, exploiting those moments where the opponents finally got impatient/aggressive? The big plays are earned by PROVING you'll take the small plays over and over. Our guy has definitely backslid into terrible habits, both with decision-making and, on some of those skipped throws to the right flat, mechanics. A step back might allow him to flush out those toxic tendencies.

Agree that Davis has been disappointing the last two games, most notably with his inability to bring in contested passes. But we also saw stretches last year, like right now, where he seems to just not be on the same page as his quarterback. We've seen what happens when Allen has, and does not have, that 2nd outside weapon.

It probably goes a little deeper than that, although it IS fair to say that the 2 losses came in the 2 games most egregiously impacted by injuries. Maybe Allen's issues the last 3 quarters are in fact partially injury-related? He's displayed obvious issues with throws to his right, especially when moving to his right...such throws often involve poor/limited mechanics, relying primarily on the elbow-to-wrist action. Didn't Allen hit his hand on a defender a couple games ago, and now he's experienced a UCL/elbow injury? Both times we saw him react emphatically on the field. So maybe he's dinged enough that a combination of sped-up/incomplete mechanics AND diminished lower right arm strength/stability has resulted in skipped and off-target throws to the right half of the field?

Each of the last three seasons have seen a multiple-game swoon like this one: bad defense (especially against the run), Josh Allen out of sync with his suddenly thin receiving corps, no running game or balance, or physicality in general, and a looming fear (backed up by recent results) that the team has been exposed, top-to-bottom. Each of the last three seasons, the Bills have gone from being figured out, to figuring it out. Injuries have definitely exacerbated this season's "swoon," but nevertheless we shall see if our 2022 team can sort itself out and improve in the 2nd half the way good teams do.