Richard Noggin

How is having an elite QB tasked with simply finding the open given guy on any given play, rather than looking to force it to a specific guy the defense is very aware of, some kind of "bold strategy?" Especially when force-feeding specific players, instead of just taking the open reads, was the offense's undoing at times the last two seasons. How does that work? I get that adding an elite outside, man-beating, separator would have pleased more people, but do we all realize that the 2024 guys who actually fit that mold aren't who you think? Admittedly, Coleman's advanced metrics are generally awful. But there isn't just one mold. Look at the top guys on the attached table. Teams are making all kinds of projections when they're not drafting the TOP dudes. And by most metrics, there is some serious disparity between the stats, and the film, and then the ultimate WR draft values. Troy Franklin had really strong advanced metrics overall (not as much on this chart). Odunze and Nabers, not so much. Worthy actually looks like a stud beyond his straight-line speed. It will therefore be REALLY interesting to see how this WR class acclimates.

I agree with every position group listed here EXCEPT...LB. Can't see Spector getting exposed to waivers so the Bills can keep TWO OLD BACKUPS instead. I'd argue Morrow and Jones are competing against each other for one vet spot. Otherwise, I align with your roster projection. *Love the whisper in this thread that SVPG is actually an elite long snapper prospect?!? What a beautiful way to potentially open up some roster flexibility. Is that real?

If a rd 2-4 draft pick has RB2 production for a couple years and RB1 production for another couple years, then leaves (and possibly assists a little with comp formula), how is that not a SOLID investment? Lots of rd 2-4 picks just bust.

Only need 4 years out of any drafted RB tbh. Doesn't matter what they do on their 2nd contracts because those deals will come from different teams.

I'd argue that a short week after the first game of the season will be especially painful for the players, given how much the preseason has been abbreviated for many of the presumed starters. Not a lot of collisions in TC and PS, so that first game will have dudes sore AF. Not necessarily limited or hurt or anything, just really feeling it. Thankfully it goes this way for both teams.

Agreed wrt Rodgers and all that, but my fear is that this year they've got a competent backup (Tyrod) who's practically lab-designed to get the Jets run-heavy, strong defensive roster to the playoffs. Then lose in the WC round. Why I kinda hope Floyd doesn't end Rodgers' season in week one AGAIN on MNF. Taylor, limited as he is, might be the perfect game manager to capitalize on what the Jets actually do well. Love all the continued Jets hype. So unearned (organizationally) and so market-based and marketing-based. Makes it sweeter when their ridiculous antics (Rodgers hitting the field with the flag streaming, only to be reminded of his mortality 4 plays in, for example). It's kind of heart-warming.

Good thing I, and everyone thinking like me, was wrong about the "Wrong Josh" thing. (Granted I didn't whine on a message board because what self-respecting adult would do that amiright?!) We all know the answer here. Obviously (remember when that was a fun Bills joke, obviously?!) Bernard and Brown definitely outperformed all external expectations. Love to see it from drafted talent entering years two and three. That's REALLY important. But but but what about our Dunning-Kruger Effects?!

Good news. That test is total bulls#!t

I just took a Wonderlic test with no prep and beaucoup mitigating factors and still scored a 41. It's a bogus, ethnocentric standardized test. If you score well you're probably smart, but if you don't score well, that does NOT mean you're not smart. It's more about cultural fluency. It's actually REALLY flawed and problematic, and not at all relevant to football.

Bateman just got a two year extension, that goes into effect after his upcoming 4th season with Baltimore (instead of a pricey, fully guaranteed 5th year option...seems smart AF even if the player hasn't fully stepped up yet). Williams in DET and Dotson in WAS both seem like guys who will be counted on this season to take another step forward. They are VERY likely to leave this list as long as they stay healthy. Difficult to tell for certain what you're driving at here, but I'd argue that Coleman easily comes off as a LOT savvier than most 20 year-old WR prospects. There are a number of icky biases inherent in your assumption about Keon Coleman's aptitude. The Wonderlic is being phased out already and with good reason.

mmm hands catches galore!

WUT? He laughed at a joke about his billionaire money launderer (funneled money to his TB12 enterprise to avoid salary cap restrictions), Robert Kraft, then awkwardly and unprecedently leaned in and told a comedian "don't say that s#!t again." Okay. Yeah, that's confident energy at a roast when a 100% true topic is raised. Defending him is a funny bit.

I know a dozen or so St Joe's grads who were all 2 years ahead of Kelly and so were around for all the nonsense at that level. Chad Kelly has been overwhelmingly despised at every step along his journey, it seems. What a terrible nepo bro.

Beane has said very recently that with current summer practice rules, there aren't enough snaps to go around for 4 QBs. FWIW And tbh, looking at this roster, I very easily compiled a 53 without really any sacrifices: Josh Allen #17 Mitch Trubisky #11 James Cook #4 Ray Davis #22 Ty Johnson #26 Reggie Gilliam #41 Keon Coleman #0 Curtis Samuel #1 Khalil Shakir #10 Mack Hollins #13 Justin Shorter #18 + 1 more (isabella and hamler seem like candidates) Dalton Kincaid #86 Dawson Knox #88 Quintin Morris #85 Dion Dawkins #73 David Edwards #76 Connor McGovern #66 O'Cyrus Torrence #64 Spencer Brown #79 - La'el Collins #71 Sedrick Van Pran-Granger #62 Ryan Van Demark #74 Alec Anderson #70 Von Miller #40 Greg Rousseau #50 AJ Epenesa #57 Javon Solomon #56 Casey Toohill #95 or Kingsley Jonathan #59 Ed Oliver #91 Daquan Jones #92 DeWayne Carter #90 Austin Johnson #98 DeShawn Williams #99 Matt Milano #58 Terrel Bernard #43 Dorian Williams #42 Edefuan Ulofoshio #48 Baylon Spector #54 Deion Jones #45 or Nicholas Morrow #52 Rasul Douglas #31 Christian Benford #47 Taron Johnson #7 Kaiir Elam #5 Daequan Hardy #25 Ja'Marcus Ingram #46 Cole Bishop #24 Mike Edwards #21 Taylor Rapp #9 Cam Lewis #33 Tyler Bass #2 Sam Martin #8 or Matt Haack #15 Reid Ferguson #69

Can't disagree with the McD + (slow-playing) rookies sentiments, but... ...there have been significant challenges to our widely accepted view of McD's conservative rookie development approach. These include: O'Cyrus Torrence, Tremaine Edmunds, Tre White, Spencer Brown, Christian Benford, Groot and Ed Oliver. Roughly 1 rookie per year gets starting traction from the jump, on average. And usually another rookie or two begins to contribute with increasing frequency/impact as the season progresses. Bunch more really solid examples there: with Allen and Milano leading that accelerated year-one progression charge. Sounds to my Bills ears like Coleman will have EVERY chance to see the field a LOT early on, and like Bishop will definitely rotate in and play Teams, and Carter will absolutely be the #3 or #4 DT in the rotation there. I think Solomon will actually get a bunch of pass rush reps by mid-year if game scripts allow for it. (I hope Shorter and/or Shavers take a legitimate step forward this season. We all should, of course, but I am actually optimistic one of them will earn an outside spot.)

Jim Kelly, at this point, would just hope for his nephew finally getting "saved" or some such BS. Kelly was a notorious terrible dude until his unfortunate family wake-up call. Chad has ALWAYS been known as a privileged d-ooo-sh since way back. They're a-holes. Just the way it is.

For a 6'5" guy who was married to the world's richest supermodel, Tom Brady exudes small D energy. Amazing how petty and petulant he is. What an angry little loser. Sure, he won a lot of football games, but he is a humorless weirdo. Eff him.

Some football guy was on WGR today or yesterday sharing what he's heard about the Bills (SUPER vague, apologies) and he claims the Bills see Shakir as much more than just a strictly slot guy. They allegedly think he can play outside just as well. Didn't say the same about Samuel, mind you, who most think will be their pre-snap move monster in a way they had hoped Harty might shine early on last season (they def tried in the first few games). So that leaves Coleman as the Gabe Davis X role on the depth chart, obviously. I think McD is FULLY willing to let that happen early and often if Coleman can get on Josh's page. (Shouldn't be difficult to get synced up with Allen as well as Davis was OR WASN'T.) Then I'd see Shakir and Samuel flexing between Z and Y a bunch with Kincaid also effectively being a Y guy.

Corey Moore was 2 inches shorter, even, about 20 lbs lighter, and definitely didn't have NEARLY the length of Solomon (who might not be TALL, but he is long af). Corey Moore was a bad NFL projection. Javon Solomon, imho, is not. A team will need to play with a lead to really employ him in his first couple years as a pass rush specialist, but I have a sense he can excel in that defined role.

NOT a great player against the run right away, or maybe ever, is the other major concern. Still a component of the historically low percentile height/weight. A story in charts (curious why shuttle/3-cone aren't included here but are for others...who picks which numbers rate?): (for the record, but don't tell anyone in case I'm wrong, I think Solomon might be SPECIAL)

Agree with both of you. I think people are snoozing on this guy. Even that embedded video was brief on him (although McD DID really seem authentically high on the guy).

I really thought Franklin was a fit. So curious why popular opinion (and my own) was mostly wrong about his draft value?

His combine 40 kinda broke a lot of brains. He's a decent prospect even if he didn't run that record-(and brain)-breaking time. I thought he might go a bit earlier.

That's for sure relevant. Losing Super Bowls, however, tends to be a setback that carries over into the following season, doesn't it? Not a lot of runners-up are remembered fondly as excellent teams.

Why wouldn't Hardy (CB pick) be in the running for the returner jobs? Seems like his most immediate value is clearly there. Because he's a rookie? Seems like mentally the easiest onboarding in all of NFL football, being a returner. Shakir and Samuel both seem like guys who could be all right with the new kickoff structure. Only the Rams, above, have actually won a SB. So...