Richard Noggin

Definitely appreciate this approach to identifying a range of "realistic targets" per pick, filtered by perceived roster need and positional value. It's a neat exercise, and I enjoy this type of pre-draft analysis. However, it would be unfortunate to use this type of projected/hypothetical data point to criticize any team's draft decisions, within reason. The Bills might very well have a couple-two-tree tight ends on their 1st round target list, or a couple linebackers, in addition to these receivers and linemen. And who could reasonably blame them (I type, knowing full well the answer is: anyone)?

Paris Johnson falling to 27 would be bonkers.

The board fell so beautifully here (although I DID trade back ONE pick in the 5th; just couldn't pass up the value there).

In Williamsville? It did as of this past Fall. Not sure about now...the owner wasn't super optimistic about his prospects back then (I work with restaurants).

Campbell's short shuttle and 3-cone were effing spectacular, weren't they?

The bolded shows your whole arse. Beane's job is not to show YOU that he agrees with YOUR roster-building strategy, and therefore "dramatically shift [your] perceptions about him." This isn't about you. You don't necessarily know better. You DEFINITELY aren't privy to all the information and expertise that they have access to. You say you want a championship, but then you also say what you really want is for the Bills to try to win that championship in a way that you agree with up front, as though failure under those circumstances is somehow more palatable. Because YOU agreed with the approach. Get over yourself. Have some intellectual humility.

Let the board fall on this one, and while Bills fans would be apoplectic after the first two rounds (calling for McBeane's removal, no doubt) I think the rest falls nicely (probably unrealistically) for perceived needs and long term value. And of course, BUILD THE TRENCHES 27. Lukas Van Ness - EDGE Iowa 59. Calijah Kancey - DT Pitt 91. Matthew Bergeron - OT Syracuse 130. Ricky Stromberg - OC Arkansas 137. Bryce Ford-Wheaton - WR West Virginia 205. Max Duggan - QB TCU

This one definitely addresses perceived needs with some degree of value:

That's outlandishly unrealistic. The value on those picks is bonkers. No way. (But great for the Bills in whatever universe allows for such draft value to fall into their laps.)

Funny how the OP broadly throws shade on HCs who would run their defenses, yet ignores how much the league celebrates HCs who run their OFFENSES. Almost like this isn't a completely objective perspective.

This is all solid. First, Dunne is a smart guy who can write. Second, Dunne has unfortunately often leaned into recently 86'd players and personnel for quotes and perspectives that play to the frustrations of long-suffering Bills fans. And he seems too willing to base entire articles on a single source/interview. This particular excerpt (I believe there's much more behind the paywall?) is NOT terribly salacious, tbh. No big deal. But above you mention several examples of him using potentially or even likely biased.scorned "inside" sources. He's playing the content-click-engagement game that an unaffiliated "reporter" probably HAS to play to cut through the noise...but in so doing sometimes he's just platforming and amplifying limited, subjective, possibly flawed perspectives.

Forgive me for isolating this last bit of your thoughtful post - but while I agree that for 2023 the Bills have enough talent at the skill positions assuming no injuries (minus the hole at TE2...still see Q. Morris as solid TE3 at this time), I think the fairly pervasive opinion is that the team NEEDS to add a HIGH VALUE talent to the receiving pipeline because after Diggs we don't seemingly have anyone who has the potential to rise to that level. For one ill-fated playoff game, we all saw Davis become a righteous and repeated punishment for Spagnuolo's unwavering, dedicated doubling of Diggs. It was legendary. And on the heels of a perfect offensive game the week prior, in those conditions in front of that crowd, there was a natural spoiling of our collective expectations for what Gabe Davis could be with more opportunities. But with a QB like Allen and a WR1 like Diggs, it really does boil down to oline play: pass protection and the valid threat of a running game.

I don't think the bolded really reflects the way NFL front offices have been thinking about the position of late. Big Money RBs* don't correlate favorably with deep playoff success in recent years, to my knowledge. *by working definition: RBs on extensions / 2nd deals, or 4th/5th year 1st round RBs...

Maybe don't feel so compelled to reign in the kool-aid drinkers? I dunno. At least don't try to get out in front of the...gasp!...optimism with irrational mockery of what was at least a defensible move to add value to several units, including WR. You're better than that.

Really weak effort here. Too blatant. To best spread your gospel of "I know better" you should consider teasing the dimmer, more susceptible posters with at least A LITTLE TASTE of your infallible logic/evidence/warranting assumptions. Show off that big brain.

The bolded reads like a statement of fact, when in fact it is not. It's not even the prevailing opinion based on the limited information available. One could even argue that Miller might be back early in the season (if we agree that his surgery was something short of a FULL tear & repair...whatever the bleep that means lol; but wasn't that the subtext in some of Von's post-surgery comments? There was a degree of intentional ambiguity coming from both the team and the player, so it's difficult to discern without more access). P.s. aside from PFF -- who has been shoving Nathaniel Dell in my face the first two days of the draft, every draft -- which draft simulators are folks using?

I don't trust Hopkins to age gracefully, as a guy who reportedly doesn't outwork anyone in the off-season or even in practice DURING the season. If those things are partially true, then it does not bode well as he moves into his 30s. Then again, he has basically ALWAYS performed, including when he returned from suspension (or was it injury?) this past season.

I think Shaq Lawson is a dawg. He will never live up to where Rex drafted him, but he belongs in the NFL. Provides much needed juice. If he comes back on the cheap, I'm all for it.

Some of the most knee-jerk, unmoored proclamations of doom, just because their dopamine initially spiked with the exalting news of a Bills transaction they can tear apart with reflexive, immature takes...and then gradually they are empirically reminded that such cynical campaigns don't always reward the crusader, and mayhaps often offer them up for reactive retribution. Cortisol spikes a bit, serotonin is scarce, dopamine got them into this in the first place, so maybe physiologically they feel exposed? Maybe they lash out with hot takes to keep us occupied. Best defense is an obvious, Freudian offense?

It HAS?! What did I miss? Did the Dolphins win the free agency championship? Are the Jets lighting the future on fire to go all-in with an old, salty/narcissistic GB HoF QB...AGAIN? Is the Buffalo defensive roster suddenly terrible minus only really a divisive LB? Roster/depth chart holes only persist at IOL2/3, OT2/3, TE2, RB3, WR2/3, and MLB1. Going into a draft, that ain't half bad.

I can only disagree with the totality of claiming "Josh has always...had issues taking the checkdown [emphasis added]." In certain stretches of 2021 and (early) 2022, Allen had the quick game swinging smoothly like a "Summer Wind." Zen Josh, with his (kinda basic) pregame Sinatra-based serenity, was an assassin. He has conquered his own tendencies for amazing stretches of football. We've seen historic play. But there are some corrections, some regressions to the mean. Often injury-related, turns out.

This no-trade dream unfolded nicely: The 3rd round OT is a bit of a reach, but perhaps less so than Spencer Brown was a few years ago? Gotta grow some competition and depth at OT (as well as the more commonly accepted hole(s) at IOL). After Dawkins we've got Brown, Doyle (off injury), and Anderson. That's not good enough.

The 1st round EDGE pick shoves a cheap, rotational NFL DE (Lawson or Epenesa), or two (BOTH Lawson AND Epenesa?) off the roster after Miller and Rousseau and Basham. And I guess that's useful if the pick turns into a disruptive pass rusher. After securing a franchise QB, it's all about protecting yours and attacking theirs. Hard to get mad at DL or OL picks on day one ever. And in 2023 I'd include a target for JA17 as an acceptable alternative. It's all about helping the QB absolutely thrive.

Unfortunately, they'll have an opportunity to trade him for reasonable value. And as the Bills can attest, it really CAN work for both sides: trading a 1st for an emerging WR1 who needs to get paid and then fed, AND getting 1st round+ value FOR that guy you won't be able to re-sign. Stefon Diggs has been an all-time franchise great in Buffalo, has been integral in Josh Allen's ascension, and STILL brings an edge to the field that most of his teammates can't match. AJ Brown was pretty decent for the Eagles, and I guess we'll see what the Titans make of their draft picks. Devante Adams had high-end production for the Raiders, but needed a HIGH volume to get there. Catch % and 1Ds were WAY down, while Y/R and TDs were up...so maybe he was working downfield considerably more. Tyreek Hill was an effing beast for the Dolphins. Huge jump in production. DeAndre Hopkins definitely had a big first year in Arizona, and since then, when healthy has still been a #1 guy. But age is maybe catching up (which is more likely to be true for a guy who has never been accused of outworking anyone off the field). Bottom line? I don't know. It still seems like a decent move to spend draft assets AND big money on a bona fide WR1 in his prime. Nothing helps a QB more than an alpha dawg WR out there who reliably wins his reps and/or forces defenses to over-commit. (Think KC in the 13 seconds game. Davis was repeatedly singled-up, often with a big, flat-footed cushion. No safety help. No 2023 Patrick Peterson insight on Davis's reliance on in-breaking routes. But it was Diggs who created the coverage liability Allen and Davis exploited repeatedly.) A team would be smart to trade for Higgins after the season. And Cinci would be wise to maximize their return before the player leaves withOUT compensation.

They MAY get glimpses of the guy from a couple seasons ago with rare traits for the position, or they may get the 30+ year old, oft-injured guy who is on the decline.