Richard Noggin

The Jets have a solid track record of taking things away from Allen and causing him to reconsider and/or force the issue. His cleaner play in recent matchups is a testament to him and Brady.

That's the McDermott Difference™️

Totally agree about Cincinnati's downfield passing: Higgins is like a better Mike Williams (long strider who can haul it in down the boundary...the prototypical #2) but Chase is a complete WR who does everything REALLY well and makes you defend the entire field. Something to note about this year's downfield 50/50 balls and the downfield game in general: the ball is in a lot less danger than in past seasons. Hollins, Coleman, and Cooper are much more QB-friendly contested catch dudes than what we had previously.

Home opponents are tough. Last year to defend the turf against a tough slate. Bunch of primo matchups.

Not unreasonable to fear Henry and Lamar in bad conditions. But I still think Allen has a passing advantage over ANY other QB in the league in bad conditions. Bills could have won that insane wind game against NE on MNF if only they'd unleashed Allen as a passer sooner.

Gotta lock up the #2 seed to at least guarantee Baltimore would have to come through Buffalo in the playoffs. They're not as imposing on the road. And we beat them at home in the playoffs already when they had a better defense. Lamar has definitely progressed since then, and their offense is more dangerous overall, but I'll take the matchup as long as it's in OP.

It's about time we debate the Worthy vs Coleman picks. Finally.

The calls felt incredibly one-sided towards the end there. We did some vigorous booing. I still need to watch a replay to get a 2nd opinion from myself.

Bills fans appear to be doing the oft-dreaded "over-looking" thing. Someone ought to warn us about letdowns or trap games or whatever. Because we all know that fans need to be disciplined and take it one week at a time. Or else. (none of this directed at you necessarily)

Newton used to be an easy and reasonable comp for Allen (especially physically), except Cam never grew enough as a processor and facilitator to remain in that company. Allen is playing the position on and off the field at a level Newton never even sniffed (despite Cam's statistical productivity, especially early on). Plus Newton's arm was kinda forever effed midway through his career.

It's always been Cunningham and Elway who most favorably compare IMHO. Both were a bit lighter and a little shorter, but both were the elite physical specimens of that era who could also play the position. Difficult to compare numbers across eras, but upon closer review, Cunningham was an effing monster for most of his career, relatively and statistically speaking. Elway was much more pedestrian throughout. Both became better game managers later in their careers, with Elway winning a couple 'ships while hobbling around and handing it off and converting important downs, and Cunningham being the first QB to enjoy explosive productivity with the domed WR duo of Carter and Moss (Culpepper would inherit this historically rare privilege). That 1998 team was electric, and could have given the Broncos trouble if they'd defeated the Dirty Birds. Interesting little rabbit hole to go down here.

Well the pressers don't actually reveal anything, as you well know. And I also have not watched Maye outside of some game highlights. I think we all know he has a hose, and is big and athletic. But he also has a somewhat elongated release, and probably isn't always clear and decisive in his coverage reads. Maybe holds the ball at times. You're right that McD's Bills defenses have feasted on similar QB profiles, provided they can neutralize the Pats running game. I imagine that will be the focus Sunday: stopping the run to set up advantageous 3rd downs. My concern is that the Bills will be vulnerable to screens and slants and RPOs on 1st and 2nd downs. Maybe Ed Oliver decides to show up again this week and Maye is made to be uncomfortable from the drop. That's kind of the lurking X-factor. Individual matchups the Bills SHOULD win.

...baby

My honest memory is that Randall Cunningham was similarly gifted physically to Allen (which is to say absolutely ELITE arm and athleticism), but his release IIRC was much more elongated, and he was more about post-snap reactions than pre-snap reads.

Agreed at least in part. However, 2020 saw a serious reduction in offensive holding penalties and a significant jump in passing productivity. I immediately think of that pass over Fred Warner to Gabe Davis on a play action, deep slant/skinny post/dig up the left hash marks. That immaculate pocket and Allen's calm feet were a signature of that season. Many QBs seemed to enjoy similar advantageous working conditions. I think the numbers overall bear this out? (Could be wrong)

But actually the point made in that quote is super relevant/cogent. As professional, in-person scouting got increasingly over-shadowed (in media spaces) by internet arm chair "analytics" that rely on past-results-predict-future-outcomes statistical models, the Josh Allen anti-hype pre- and post-draft stands as a stark indictment of the PFF/money ball analytical model. So Allen DID outsmart nearly every human and math itself. Including me. I heard Beane mention in person, in passing, how intrigued he was by that kid at Wyoming. "Hoping" he had a bad final college season and/or a bad pre-draft process. He was always intrigued by something the numbers couldn't account for. And he was right all along, mostly thanks to Allen's incredible and humble drive to improve. I never viewed that piece, especially with its original title, as a hit piece so much as a willingness to admit that mathematical models might/will occasionally miss, however unified they might be for or against a given prospect.

It's curious, because I agree for sure, but also I suspect McDermott likes his coordinators these days to show THE LEAST they can and still get wins against lesser competition. I don't know if that's accurate, but they sure have rolled out some refreshingly aggressive and innovative game plans and play calls on both sides of the ball against the Chiefs and the Lions, for example. This would suggest that the Bills won't show many diverse or novel pressure looks on defense against the Pats and their rookie QB. Then again, sure seems like a good week to bring some heat, especially delayed/spy pressures from the 2nd and 3rd levels.

Hmm really thought that was the Dawkins formation call (but not surprised I'm wrong). We were pretty rowdy as we watched last week in my buddy's basement bar. Have to maximize my away game viewing fun before it's back to OP.

Campbell has always been more of a 2-gap, odd-front tweener. Perfect for the Pittsburghs and Baltimores. A 5-technique ideally. But he can definitely play inside in an even-front against the pass and outside in a heavy alignment against the run.

Aside from the LAME and probably incorrect call on Allen's scrambling shove-pass to Kincaid last week (Dawkins called for illegal formation innit?), I've noticed his splits often being unusually wide and moreover his alignment being unusually tight to the LOS, like tighter to the line than the LG a number of times. That's a weird look, traditionally. But then I think of Kromer's novel gameplan for Jordan Mills (at RT) against JJ Watt way back when: Mills consistently lined up tight to the line and then stepped UP to engage Watt on majority of pass pro snaps. And it worked. I forget the specific game. But I remember the unusual and ballsy gameplan that helped a mediocre but aggressive RT mostly neutralize one of the game's most disruptive D-linemen at the time.

Reasonable. Just HATE the idea of Mixon > Chase, Higgins, and Gesicki carving up the Bills D

Eeeek! (what happened when I picked each game for remainder of season)

Felt to this observer that early on in the season, Samuel's targets (when on the field) were VERY obvious/predictable screens and targets close to the LOS. Defenses seemed to really key on him. Looked a lot like the attempted early usage of Hardy the year before. Which also didn't work. Both guys were downhill keys for opposing defenses. Before the Bills had this more fully developed, 2024 diversified offense (with both gap and zone running success, and both horizontal and vertical passing success), certain players and personnel packages had predictable and attackable tendencies. Against Detroit, Samuel's only target/catch that I recall (right to left near the far side of the goal line) was an intermediate route (unless I'm an idiot). More of that usage, which he's capable of, could potentially open up the motion and sweep and screen stuff. *he got banged up on that impressive-ish catch down by the goal line, innit?

Smart topic in that the answer is so obvious. Posters will be eager to offer different perspectives. (Bad topic in that of course the Patriots aren't our most hated rival any longer. Next question.)

Would have been the PERFECT Jim Kelly successor on and off the field. Both during and then after their playing days. The similarities are pretty wild. To be honest, Big Ben probably had the stones to win a 'ship here. And be a menace at the same time. Happy to have waited for the current guy.