Richard Noggin

We should all HOPE that defenses actively "scheme ways to try and take him out of the gameplan." Get Allen cookin with his WRs and maybe move some safeties and/or LBs out of their ideal run fits.

ESPN, of all outlets, threw up a tantalizing infographic (highlighting a VERY SMALL sample size). Unfortunately, I'm suddenly unable to recall exact parameters, but it went something like this: Last/only three teams to add in one offseason two offensive skill players with four or more pro bowl appearances (possibly over a controlled/recent span). Team Acquisitions Outcome 2023 Jets Rodgers, Cook tbd 2020 Bucs Brady, Brown Won SB ??? ??? (very frustrating) Won SB Probably kind of easy to identify the 3rd team that did it (minus my brain fart)...maybe the Rams with Stafford and Beckham?

My view is that for some athletes who excel at head-to-head collision sports, they are tapping into a hormonally life-or-death level of competitiveness. Losing is like chemically unacceptable. Or psychologically, if you prefer, their egos reject losing in a desperate/violent way. I've played with guys who were obviously on another level, and they were often edgy pricks if things weren't unattainably perfect on the pitch.

Following you around here because this is interesting discourse. Could the reluctance to just insert Elam into the defense and adapt schemes to his strengths have something to do with that making his presence on the field a "tell" for the offense? I mean, it sure seemed like the defense under Frazier lapsed often into VERY predictable schemes anyways, and McD's play-calling takeover hopefully hints at a shift towards a more multiple, matchup-focused approach... We all mostly agree that in the playoffs, against high-end AFC offenses, Frazier's defenses seemed to lack the better answers necessary to frustrate those top attacks after putting an entire season on tape. If Kaiir Elam automatically = press man coverage, then that's one problem the QB and WR don't need to solve post-snap. Or in the case of Frazier's schemes, if the Bills D almost always = off-coverage/cushion and light boxes, then that's even more problems the QB and WRs have easy answers to.

Doesn't this particular discussion of "fit" echo what happened with AJ Epenesa in a way? While he fell deep into the 2nd round and his perceived value was sticking out, his best or at least most common NFL projections were as a 2-gapping 3-4 DE; a Pittsburgh Steeler type of guy. Long and strong and edge-setting. So the Bills draft this stout Iowa bull and immediately ask him to become a fundamentally different athlete. Instead of leaning into his well-documented strengths, they seemingly decided that his "very poor" speed RAS and "okay" agility RAS could be made less mediocre by asking him to lose another 10-20 pounds (he had already shed at least 5-10 lbs for the combine), thus for sure eroding his one "great" RAS, which was his size. Longview draft "strategy" (to reference our other ongoing discussion) supports picking AJ Epenesa when he falls to you in the back half of the 2nd round. But then tactically the coaches need to have an actionable plan to utilize said player's strengths, or else that perceived draft value is rendered moot, and Beane could have maybe identified a better fit.

Elam doesn't seem to fit as a McD CB draft prospect they should have spent extra assets on, given how zone-heavy (even if it's cover-3 and cover-2 which often function like man post-snap depending on the play calls) they have been. Or, if Elam the prospect was such a good prospect that they felt justified in moving up in the 1st round, why aren't they doing more to adapt to his unique skills and utilize his specific strengths? Why wasn't that part of a premeditated shift towards more press and man coverage? Seems like Benford and Jackson (6th and 7th round picks, respectively) provide plenty of promise in the defensive philosophy the Bills have relied upon since McD's arrival. Is Frazier's departure part of this? Was he hesitant to scheme to Elam's strengths? Or was Elam a bit of a reach to ensure they got the last 1st-round worthy CB prospect in a year when that was a perceived glaring need?

So I think what you're sharing in the provided example is potentially considered "tactical" in that it's specifically influenced by contemporaneous circumstances for a given draft and a given perceived roster need, and does not adhere to a longer term, macro view of maximizing draft value year after year to consistently add cost-controlled, high-end talent. It's heavily swayed by current perception of circumstances, and therefore subject to more flexible and relative and potentially undisciplined or short-sighted use of assets. The repeated trade-ups have cost the roster how many day-three picks in Beane's tenure? No one will argue whatever Allen's pick cost. But what about Edmunds, Ford, Knox, Elam, Dawkins (?) et al? (Didn't we trade up for Dion Dawkins? Memory is foggy on that one.) Draft strategy here seems to be to zero-in on specific players each year and spend more to acquire them, if necessary, draft value be damned, which almost no NFL GMs would actually admit to. Maybe it's just that what seems short-sighted and reactive I call "tactical," and what seems more patient and prudent and value-conscious I call "strategy." Semantics is a fraught endeavor in sports convos.

Man, I was still only on the BBMB back in 2005 when "retatta" was a message board thing here. So I am completely missing the actual reference beyond knowing there was some obviously humorous TBD thread 18 years ago when I was exclusively frequenting the "official" Bills message board when that existed. Anyone care to summarize for us BBMB refugees (or for the many youngins)?

While there have been a few glimpses of explosive excellence, the larger sample size of full seasons (especially observable in-person) shows a guy who requires apologies for his flaws: a guy who isn't often enough on the same page as his QB when reading coverages and adapting his routes, and a guy whose catching fundamentals have been puzzlingly fudged up far too often. The numbers actually support these criticisms. His transcendent playoff performance against KC (13-second loss) I guess refutes them for some people.

For what it's worth (almost nothing) my pre-draft mock draft simulations very consistently presented me with Dalton Kincaid as the best offensive weapon who slid to our pick (or within justifiable range of our pick in a trade-up scenario). Prior to those couple weeks of late-night mock draft simulations, I didn't know much about Kincaid (beyond some smallish school intrigue compounded by no pre-draft workout metrics due to a back injury). It's probably searchable, my various shared mock drafts, but I'm somewhat certain that I picked Kincaid more often than many others who shared their own drafts. Sometimes people are just really good at football, and the pre-draft underwear olympics economy doesn't generate much engagement pointing out such unquantifiably positive opinions. Kincaid is the closest thing to Kelce (the TE) we've seen in recent memory, innit?

The obligatory FIFY

I mean, what do medical professionals know that good ol' common sense and obstinance don't?

It DOES make a difference. What the Bills pay Diggs over his first 5 years with the team and what they'd pay a 1st round WR over that same span is dramatically different. (In the 1st year or two we'd want to assume the production is also fairly different, favoring the acquired vet, but then again, the actual production of that #22 pick since entering the league really drives home the potential value in drafting the player instead of trading for him.)

I just think it's more complicated than if everything is technically healthy. And maybe by "100%" you're also considering strength and flexibility, but the surrounding muscles and really the entire body, needs time to get used to functioning all together again, and to get stronger and more flexible and more SYMMETRICAL again.

We are most of us always taking pay cuts.

Two noteworthy things from those offensive highlights: 1) Beasley's role was HUGE in keeping the offense on schedule when Diggs and Davis were taken away. And 2) McD going for it on 4th down early in the 4th quarter UP 10 points was also HUGE.

That first episode was ALL Rodgers kool-aid, as expected. Cringe-worthy at times. However, I have to admit that, despite my more recent years-long annoyance at the private citizen's questionable information-literacy and smugness, while half-watching the 1st episode I was reminded somewhat of my previous (circa 2nd decade of this millennia) opinion that Aaron Rodgers was the obvious best QB in the NFL. The guy had built himself into the best thrower in the league imho. Really spun it better than the rest with that abbreviated 3/4 delivery (very different from his college mechanics, to be sure). And he had sneaky good movement. And here we see some evidence that Rodgers might be re-invigorated, and for sure that his ego must be newly defended/supported in this new chapter of his career. It is worthy of some concern. The guy is no joke on the field when he cares. My hope is that his tolerance for the violence of the game is diminishing, and that his ability to avoid that violence is now more about scuttling plays, throwing it away, and turtling, rather than escaping the pocket and creating off-schedule as he once did often. Gone I hope are the days of him stepping up in the pocket, then back, then up again before releasing the ball. He was a maestro for a while there.

But the rest of his body can. Sort of. Takes time to stop favoring one side and to build back up all the symmetry and supporting soft tissue. In my eyes it's not really about re-injury and more about injuries from compensation. It's not a black-and-white ACL thing. We all know this. The ACL isn't really the issue anymore. But the rest of the interconnected soft tissues could be, if rushed. More time to ramp-up is better for the REST of Miller's lower half.

And yet my wages remain mostly the same.

Totally agree that Cam Lewis has a role as a bottom of an NFL roster DB who can flex between CB and S. Just sounded like you were suggesting he was doing well to cover Jefferson on that play when he was basically just in his spot and the ball was thrown to him. (Being in the right spot is obviously a good thing, of course.) Probably just parsing words too finely. I do that sometimes.

100% agree that Lewis' position flex is huge. Disagree on your assessment of that infamous play against Minn, he wasn't really "covering" Jefferson as in mirroring him off the line, as he was a safety on the play and the ball was essentially thrown to him. All he needed to do was "Knock it down!"

On top of currently solid reports and historical improvement rightly working in AJE's favor, Beane seems to lean into the upside of guys going into contract years. Only ways I'd imagine Epenesa NOT on the 53 are injury or trade. And while I'm not privy to the internal team projections for Basham, from my limited perspective I'd want Lawson on the squad over him this season (if I had to choose between them). Would definitely attempt to recoup a late-round pick for Boogie and get Ray and/or Jonathon on the PS. It's a puzzle with too many pieces (at the outer fringes).

Add to Locks: Harty, Settle, Bernard. Remove from Locks: Murray. Still leaves 4 spots to fill, with a need for at least 1 QB, 1 or 2 OTs, 1 S, 1 DE, and at least 1 or 2 WR (and VERY probably 1 TE). Also probably another RB (depends if Gilliam IS definitely a lock like we both think he is, as he tweens RB/TE). Which all essentially means I'm definitely very wrong about some of my picks. Really challenging year for roster decisions. A lot of bottom 3rd roster talent that WILL get scooped. I actually HATE trying to either predict what they'll do and/or IMAGINE what I'd do. And I normally find this to be one of the most fascinating parts of NFL football.

The vid above displays what I dig most about Phillips (and Lawson, while we're at it): they bring a demonstrably competitive and physical juice/swagger that the Bills haven't seen a ton of elsewhere under McD. The Bills haven't lost a ton of games since this current "run" started in 2019, but when they have, more often than not they've gotten bullied, especially at the line of scrimmage. I'd like to think Phillips and Lawson are role-playing parts of the solution to that ailment, both on the field and on the sideline.

I'll never forget 'Zo playing some transcendent, kind of old school MLB against the Jags in that 2017 Wildcard game. He was such a beast, and playing a role/position he really hadn't before. Here's hoping the Bills want to get back to being more multiple and matchup-specific in their personnel packages, alignments, and efforts to disguise.