Richard Noggin

Hill was a bit of a RB in college, wasn't he? Definitely short, but not small. Well-built dude. Worthy is slighter for sure, but won't play in the NFL at that reduced, record-breaking (by design) weight of 165lbs. I'd guess he's closer to 175/180 his rookie season. Also agree that Polk is intriguing. Heck, so is McMillan for that matter.

Agree on Thomas Jr as high ceiling trade-up target. AD Mitchell, on the other hand, is all blue-chip traits but Busch League process. Would think Legette's upside, resilience, and physicality make him a much better fit for what Brady wants to do. But based on what's been said about needing to add explosive plays to the offense, which we can pretty much all agree with, my money is on Worthy or Franklin. Problem is, the Bills need BOTH a big boundary specimen AND an explosive deep threat. Trading up for Odunze or Thomas could fill both holes at a premium cost, whereas what's left after them (omitting Mitchell due to his lack of football character) is an assortment of more specialized prospects. I think Worthy or Franklin make sense as downfield threats, and Legette, McConkey, and Polk make sense as more well-rounded prospects. Coleman is an outlier in that his analytics are AWFUL, but for some reason (including his best-ever combine gauntlet) he seems like a sleeper. Walker is a talented enigma who might not be a good football player at the next level. Pearsall has flashed serious ability, but his analytics don't project well outside at the next level. That still leaves, Corley, Cowing, Baker, Wilson, Wilson, McMillan, Rice, etc. In a potentially historic WR draft pool, the Bills NEED at least one top-3 depth chart prospect, if not two top-4 guys.

You're consistently making rational points. Very happy to read your rebuttals. I just don't think 2 FUTURE 2nds and a current 4th and 5th/6th comes even close to enticing a team at 8 to fall back to 28. It's gonna cost a 1st next year in addition to one of those 2nds, and/or a 2nd this year in addition to those 2nds. (You've even allowed for that 1st next year already, if necessary, so we're not really disagreeing much.)

Love the first two paragraphs calling for more fluidity/flexibility in how we label WR traits, ESPECIALLY in light of how E-P passing concepts specifically seek to muddy up all that static, pedantic defining of individual roles. Each guy needs to be able to execute each route/responsibility in order for the offense to really hum. As for the bolded, I'm of two minds. On one hand, yes the Bills had fallen in love with WR pre-snap motion where Gabe Davis (or sometimes Sherfield) very obviously motions/reduces down into box with the intent to run block...and they need a guy who can still do that effectively. On the other hand, that was insanely predictable (think Davis' motion timing on own-goal-line backed up QB sneak against Vikings, or basically every other time he motioned to condense the formation -- minus that early TD play against Rams in 2022 NFL opener on the road at LA). There is a role for a run-blocking WR in this offense, FOR SURE. Might be part of why moving on from Diggs was palatable: he lacked that flexibility and physicality? I'd like to see what Brady's offense looks like with truly interchangeable WRs. WRs who can run after catch and put in an honest blocking effort while also being able to separate downfield. That's the E-P dream scenario. Ignoring all that, Xavier Worthy represents a skillset and downfield threat that our current WR room lacks. McD and Beane have both mentioned a need for "explosive" passing plays. He's better all around that many casual fans realize, and in my opinion, offers blue-chip traits (long speed and explosivity) with enough else (hands and separation skills) to attract a GM like Beane. Allen can benefit greatly from a downfield threat like Brown, younger Diggs, younger Sanders, sometimes Davis, and whoever is next. We're missing that piece just as much, if not more, than we're missing a WR who can block. Maybe Xavier Legette does both?

That's a fair retort. To be even MORE fair you could automatically downgrade each future year's pick by a full round (30ish picks). That would make 2025 2nd rounders actually worth ~90 pts (#72+#90). That would leave a value deficit of roughly 80 pts... ...But now I realize I've been referencing Hill's 2022 updated value chart. Yours is from 2024. Damn. The chart below tells a slightly different story. But no matter which chart you use, the trade you made HEAVILY favors the Bills.

And Kelly was hurt. Belief was low. We often forget how small/stretched the local ticket market really is for Buffalo, compared to other NFL cities, and especially with respect to affluence. Also, I'm not sure traveling NFL tourism was much of a thing yet. Green Bay's small market solidarity is a solid counter to this line of thinking (they would never have an un-sold-out home playoff game), but there is an old school, generational loyalty and exclusivity to those seats in that community that I'm sure limits how many opposing fans sneak into Lambeau for a given game. FATIGUE/FRUSTRATION was a real thing in this 90s example, as it has become again the last two seasons in Orchard Park. 2022 was STRESSFUL in that stadium, and the weather was hilariously bad when compared to every other effing day during each week. From Halloween weekend on the vibe was WAY off. Which was partially influenced by Vikings, Steelers, Packers, and Bengals fans being loud enough to make a difference. That never happened in the 90s run, that I recall. I'd guess that continued price hikes have something to do with the increase in out-of-town fans. Eventually one has to orchestrate a time-share or sublet arrangement to make the financials work. I'm sure the majority of lower bowl seats behind the visiting bench at this point are renewed primarily for profit. Just wish more fans would look for ways to geographically limit WHO buys their seats on the secondary markets and/or seek buyers more privately/locally.

To paraphrase a Louis CK bit: OF COURSE...season ticket holders are allowed to sell their tickets. Of course. It's become over-priced corporate sports entertainment, a luxury commodity, and subject to the market. BUT MAYBE...selling tickets for games that end up being overrun with visiting team fans (Pitts, Dal, KC...any NFC North or AFC East team tbh) is a little traitorous or at least disadvantageous to the fanatic cause.

True that YAC hasn't been a big part of Buffalo's offense since E-P was installed by Daboll and run by Allen. BUT, if we zoom in on Brady's offense since taking over last season, and especially down the stretch, I think we see an increase in screens and NOW routes to the boundary, and almost definitely an increase in YAC as a % of overall passing yards. (I like posting analyses/claims based solely on my recollections of the past season, without doing any research first. Not because I'm lazy (I am lazy, of course), but because I like seeing if my contemporaneous observations (half the games observed live--which means mostly cut-off from replay and informed commentary) hold up under scrutiny. You know: growth mindset, process-based humiliation.)

That's a really cheap trade-up into the top-10, isn't it?

LFG

You managed to grab BOTH the big-time analytics red flag WRs in first 33 picks!!! Cheers to that kind of conviction. (I actually think Coleman could be a dude with a decent QB.)

Traded back one pick in the 1st and still got crazy DE value. Then used late 2nd I'd acquired in trade-back with next year's 3rd to get back in at 50 to grab Legette before he's gone. Plus Jenkins at 60? Those are all difference makers, ideally. The RB, at least one of the S picks, and the IOL all should provide immediate rotational depth. I'd have preferred to grab a 2nd WR prospect, but alas.

Love this as SOP for the draft on a continuing basis. Once you've got a franchise QB in place you need to maximize the draft return each year to ensure ongoing cap health and position group pipelines.

Here's a trade-back draft mock-up that seeks to still acquire elite talent while leveraging 2024's 1st rounder... Fans would have to wrestle some demons here, but overall, everyone should be pleased with the multitude of picks.

Is a prospect like Nubin worthy of that late 3rd rd compensatory value? Not to mention, is Troy Franklin worthy of that late 1st rd value? Most analysts say NO! I guess if Franklin works out to be a dude, then no one will care that he was taken at the end of the 1st instead of the 2nd rd...but, then again: maximizing draft value is in fact super essential to long term roster building in the NFL. Love the above draft but with minor concern over how #28 is spent. (Kinda think OBD is somewhat-aligned with this valuation of Franklin tbh.)

It's super dangerous to trade back out of the 1st with the intent to then pick a WR who might get nabbed in the 9-pick vacuum created by the move back... It's a weird spot to be in right now. Wish they weren't so transparent with their early draft needs.

Kinda effs up a lot of anti-returner/depth sentiments with actual results. But fans will always gripe against modest and under-the-radar FA signings.

Guys will see this and just say "Hell yeah"

That punt return was impactful, but yeah

I think it's the option-heavy complexity of Daboll's E-P fundamentals. New WRs tend to have trouble hitting the ground running. I think Allen has trouble with it from time to time as well. And/or Deonte Harty maybe isn't a great starting WR prospect overall.

Late to the thread (in recent days/pages) but $22/hr is around $45k/yr...THEREFORE you must be...joking?

Obviously McVay's offense WILL feature SOMEone in that ultra-productive Z/move-WR role, year after year. He's especially good at designing production. Give him a healthy Atwell and Cupp to go with Nacua, and you'll see fireworks. He IS entering the final year of his rookie deal, right? Will they pay BOTH OTs big money in 2025? After 2023, Brown isn't on a bargain FA RT trajectory (if he continues to develop or even if he just plateaus where he's at). Of course you'd prefer to see the org re-sign the guy they saw the value in and worked to develop. But you can't keep them all.

Can you elaborate on/clarify the initial trade up to 4 that does NOT include 28? Is the cost only 2025 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rd picks? To get to #4? The future picks value doesn't even come close. Maybe I'm missing info. Love to hear an outlier opinion like this -- can you say more?

Whether Glab's hot mic take was accurate or not was never really the issue for me, as much as "Team reporter gets caught absolutely blasting #1 WR's character and does NOT get fired for it."

Moved up for Thomas Jr using only a future 2nd and 4th. Gained back a 3rd and 4th later. Got 7 real dudes who "should" all make the roster and contribute year one. (Only wish IOL had made more sense when I was picking; major regret.)