Richard Noggin

The Bills drafted a receiving target with their 1st pick each of the last two years. That's SERIOUS investment (better late than never). Kincaid should be their WR1 this season, with a variety of targets behind him hopefully offering solutions to whatever DCs devise throughout 2024. People are sleeping on Kincaid imho. Not yet, no doubt. But was Kelce a game changer in his rookie season? (He appeared in only one game and recorded no stats.) Next two years were solid, but not great. So why can't an even better prospect (without the benefit of hindsight and Andy Reid), playing with Josh Allen, not also ascend?

Being grabby could absolutely stem, in part, from anxiety/panic at the route stem or initial break, when a WR will naturally gain some advantage and it's on the DB to sink and release and recover. Essentially, it's on the DB to trust his technique and innate talent to close without overtly impeding the WR. He's always shown signs of being handsy, and add to that him going from primarily press-man to playing off a bunch and reading multiple cues determining his post-snap responsibilities, and there could def be an exponential need for holistic re-training of his mind and body. Tre possesses infectious, innate confidence and composure that not every talented athlete has. Elam might be a more tightly-wound guy who isn't so clear-headed under duress.

KC is top-5 in NFL arrests over the past two decades and more recently is notoriously less concerned with employee character and off-field behavior than all orgs but CLE, feels like. Easy to dislike. Objectively unlikable.

Not to defend trolling, but it was kinda clear to me from the jump that @White Linen was doing a dry bit to deflect (no smirk at the camera). Just not a serious accusation (the Allen x Tannehill comp) to levy at @GunnerBill, and then also @Beck Water. Out of character for me, or maybe a testament to the poking, I enjoyed how well the bit played out (for those who were potentially watching it in the know).

Completely understand a lot of what you're arguing here. The top of the Bills WR room lacks a proven #1 target who demands defensive attention. But each of the last two seasons, the Bills' elite WR1 faded hard down the stretch and in the playoffs. And their WR2's lack of consistency and efficiency was often costly. And tbh, most defenses were NOT doing much doubling of Diggs and Davis. So really, the Bills don't have a heavy lift in improving upon their top-of-the-depth-chart productivity. It was already significantly spreading out down the stretch. They've now got a few long boundary guys with some serious talent but also some questions, and they've got a couple dynamic motion/slot/z&y guys who could be important chain movers and chess pieces. This of course ignores a potential #1 passing target in Kincaid, and a very solid #2 TE in Knox. And also RBs with serious receiving chops. I like Allen having a quieter array of receiving egos on the field and on the sideline; I like him being the alpha now. Watch him take control... Incredibly interested in how defenses will play the Bills this season, and of course interested in how the Bills will attack those defenses. I expect a mix of 12 and 11 personnel groups and a mix of motions and alignments, including condensed formations and some use of heavy and 2-back groupings. A major question that your post and so many others leads us to is: do we have any guys who will step up on high leverage down-and-distance snaps and win their reps? Will the offense (and Allen) identify and utilize its as yet unproven advantages while overcoming its perceived weaknesses?

That's just silly. With where things are in the off-season, or really ever, expecting/needing the QB to share some kind of revelatory observations about a specific passing target is folly. Allen's holistic and enthusiastic comments about Hollins (a big, gritty pro who is seeking to fill a prominent leadership, depth, and special teams role) are somehow a bad sign?! That's confirmation bias gymnastics. You don't definitively know most of what you think you know. None of us do.

Allen has not been adequately celebrated for his ability to avoid pressure (early penetration especially) that would result in sacks for the majority of NFL QBs. Why an otherwise ultra efficient Marino or Cousins or Goff or Tagovailoa tends to fall short in the playoffs: they don't often transcend/overcome early defensive pressure and extend otherwise negative/dead plays. A talent like Allen can cover up or compensate for so many protection breakdowns that would immediately scuttle the same plays for so many other offenses. Yes. Re-watching even the 13 seconds game recently, I was struck by how efficient Allen was early in drives, targeting Beasley especially to move the chains and get within striking distance (for those legendary deep/intermediate TD strikes to Davis). QB17 has ALREADY shown us he is willing to be the trigger man of an efficient, diverse attack. But Beasley and Brown went away, and Diggs and Davis plateaued, and Mckenzie and Harty failed to fill in. Hopefully Kincaid and Samuel and Shakir and the RBs shine as featured targets in a diverse passing attack, with some combination of Coleman, MVS, and/or Claypool and Shorter/Shavers doing the boundary work to keep defenses honest enough. I do think Samuel and Shakir and Kincaid (and maybe Knox and Cook and Davis) could all be trustworthy targets encouraging Allen to take what the defense gives him.

Really interesting where the author did (and did NOT) project Coleman's value to be seen, schematically: "Both Diggs and Gabe Davis departed this offseason, leaving the Bills sorely lacking in the receiver room. Coleman will work toward getting a major share of the 241 targets that went to them last season. He will work to become Allen's favorite target both inside and outside the structure of the Buffalo offense. The rookie receiver will fight for jump balls, he'll find holes in zone coverage, and he'll work his way toward Allen when the QB gets creative on the move. That'll all require rapport, and they're already planning to work out this offseason at Allen's place in Wyoming. Coleman's path to the No. 1 spot starts there." No mention of winning against press-man coverage on the outside, which of course is the most persistent criticism of his college tape.

There is more content (worthwhile stuff, too) to your post beyond what I'm quoting here, but if we were having a f2f convo, right about here I'd say something like, "I'm gonna go ahead and stop you right THERE." Dawkins and Brown are objectively athletic offensive tackles. Brown in particular tested out as a HISTORICALLY athletic tackle prospect. And Dawkins, despite and/or because he tends to carry more weight in the off-season than some fans prefer, is also a REALLY underrated athlete still, somehow. There isn't really room for reasonable debate on this point. They ARE athletic when compared to other NFL tackles.

Does Pederson employ a high volume of option routes? He's from the Reid tree, so seems likely there is room for complexity in his passing concepts. If so, that's where Davis seemed to struggle, and his QB struggled in turn when targeting him. That TB game remains such a weird outlier, however, that suggests maybe Davis CAN do other stuff, and just ordinarily wasn't asked to? (doubtful, but maybe that playbook just did not suit him)

Taller/better version of Shakir, kinda.

Peterson's comments on this game and this play definitely didn't reflect well on OC Dorsey's passing concepts and personnel usage and the ease in identifying and preparing for those tendencies. Davis' usage in particular in both the run and pass games had become insanely telling pre- and post-snap. Earlier in the game, Minn d-linemen were able to time the Bills negative goal-line sneak in part because of Davis' predictable motion. So obvious, so often. Are you suggesting Davis should have sped-up/shortened his route to protect inside leverage? I see it more as Davis didn't convincingly sell/threaten to the outside, especially in light of Peterson's expectation for Davis to break inside. Was Davis supposed to read Peterson's cheating inside and underneath and then break outside instead? Or did Dorsey simply telegraph the concept with his tendencies and personnel alignments and Peterson slow-played it just enough to bait Allen? Also some room to criticize the throw, given the DB's leverage. Mirror of the same basic throw he fired into Davis for their 4th TD in the 13 seconds game (just breaking right-to-left instead), late, low trajectory missile that's underthrown if the CB is trailing/anticipating.

Can most agree that the loud and persistent angst we're seeing from the WR-Train fan contingent (who I am largely aligned with) is specifically due to a lack of elite boundary targets? If we look at the current group objectively, there are clearly talented and ascending guys (Kincaid, Samuel, Shakir, even Coleman), but the top half of the group all seem (according to popular sentiment) best suited to moving around and lining up inside most of the time. The desire for an elite boundary alpha receiver is not new, but it's also not backed up by historical results. Aside from like Jerry Rice (who wasn't strictly an X by any means) and Michael Irvin back in the 80s-90s (and probably someone I'm forgetting), not a lot of SB champs fielded that prototypical, blue chip boundary WR1 with length and speed (also Rice's timed speed was underwhelming). Andre Reed is the WR Bills fans celebrate most from the 90s teams. But it was James Lofton and Don Beebe who worked the boundaries. Reed made his living in the middle, as we know. Remember how darn efficient and surgical Josh Allen was when he had an elite slot receiver to throw to? Watching the last quarter of the 13 seconds game, and Beasley was SO integral to moving the chains in the first half of those last two pivotal late game drives (got a little beat-up on that last drive, but his impact and target share was unmistakable). Seems reasonable to me to have high hopes for a Josh Allen-led offense that features a strong o-line, better than average running game, talented/ascendant passing weapons at TE (Kincaid, Knox, and Morris) and Z/Y receivers (Samuel and Shakir--with Hamler and Isabella behind them on PS)...and also LONG boundary guys with a variety of traits and pedigrees (Coleman, MVS, Hollins, Shorter/Shavers) who can hopefully take advantage of their limited, but important, opportunities. Maybe even blow up every now and then when opposing defenses leave them on islands.

Probably isn't going to dorm at St John Fisher for a couple weeks, no matter if he's leaning towards one more run or not. He seems SUPER open to running it back in 2024, but this current uncertainty is all an understandable part of NOT attending training camp. Hyde isn't going to half-arse anything, so best he doesn't sign up before they get back to Orchard Park and into the regular season practice groove. There is obviously a cool little league-wide list of end-of-career, celebrated UFAs (often D-linemen or WRs) who haven't signed until the end of summer, or even later, into the season.

How is having an elite QB tasked with simply finding the open given guy on any given play, rather than looking to force it to a specific guy the defense is very aware of, some kind of "bold strategy?" Especially when force-feeding specific players, instead of just taking the open reads, was the offense's undoing at times the last two seasons. How does that work? I get that adding an elite outside, man-beating, separator would have pleased more people, but do we all realize that the 2024 guys who actually fit that mold aren't who you think? Admittedly, Coleman's advanced metrics are generally awful. But there isn't just one mold. Look at the top guys on the attached table. Teams are making all kinds of projections when they're not drafting the TOP dudes. And by most metrics, there is some serious disparity between the stats, and the film, and then the ultimate WR draft values. Troy Franklin had really strong advanced metrics overall (not as much on this chart). Odunze and Nabers, not so much. Worthy actually looks like a stud beyond his straight-line speed. It will therefore be REALLY interesting to see how this WR class acclimates.

I agree with every position group listed here EXCEPT...LB. Can't see Spector getting exposed to waivers so the Bills can keep TWO OLD BACKUPS instead. I'd argue Morrow and Jones are competing against each other for one vet spot. Otherwise, I align with your roster projection. *Love the whisper in this thread that SVPG is actually an elite long snapper prospect?!? What a beautiful way to potentially open up some roster flexibility. Is that real?

If a rd 2-4 draft pick has RB2 production for a couple years and RB1 production for another couple years, then leaves (and possibly assists a little with comp formula), how is that not a SOLID investment? Lots of rd 2-4 picks just bust.

Only need 4 years out of any drafted RB tbh. Doesn't matter what they do on their 2nd contracts because those deals will come from different teams.

I'd argue that a short week after the first game of the season will be especially painful for the players, given how much the preseason has been abbreviated for many of the presumed starters. Not a lot of collisions in TC and PS, so that first game will have dudes sore AF. Not necessarily limited or hurt or anything, just really feeling it. Thankfully it goes this way for both teams.

Agreed wrt Rodgers and all that, but my fear is that this year they've got a competent backup (Tyrod) who's practically lab-designed to get the Jets run-heavy, strong defensive roster to the playoffs. Then lose in the WC round. Why I kinda hope Floyd doesn't end Rodgers' season in week one AGAIN on MNF. Taylor, limited as he is, might be the perfect game manager to capitalize on what the Jets actually do well. Love all the continued Jets hype. So unearned (organizationally) and so market-based and marketing-based. Makes it sweeter when their ridiculous antics (Rodgers hitting the field with the flag streaming, only to be reminded of his mortality 4 plays in, for example). It's kind of heart-warming.

Good thing I, and everyone thinking like me, was wrong about the "Wrong Josh" thing. (Granted I didn't whine on a message board because what self-respecting adult would do that amiright?!) We all know the answer here. Obviously (remember when that was a fun Bills joke, obviously?!) Bernard and Brown definitely outperformed all external expectations. Love to see it from drafted talent entering years two and three. That's REALLY important. But but but what about our Dunning-Kruger Effects?!

Good news. That test is total bulls#!t

I just took a Wonderlic test with no prep and beaucoup mitigating factors and still scored a 41. It's a bogus, ethnocentric standardized test. If you score well you're probably smart, but if you don't score well, that does NOT mean you're not smart. It's more about cultural fluency. It's actually REALLY flawed and problematic, and not at all relevant to football.

Bateman just got a two year extension, that goes into effect after his upcoming 4th season with Baltimore (instead of a pricey, fully guaranteed 5th year option...seems smart AF even if the player hasn't fully stepped up yet). Williams in DET and Dotson in WAS both seem like guys who will be counted on this season to take another step forward. They are VERY likely to leave this list as long as they stay healthy. Difficult to tell for certain what you're driving at here, but I'd argue that Coleman easily comes off as a LOT savvier than most 20 year-old WR prospects. There are a number of icky biases inherent in your assumption about Keon Coleman's aptitude. The Wonderlic is being phased out already and with good reason.