Richard Noggin

The Harmon drop is in fact my first really clear emotional connection to the Bills specifically. I was into sports earlier than that season/that play, but I remember instead an assortment of connections to successful and popular teams in the mid-eighties, like the '85 Bears, the '86 Mets, the Broncos and 49ers, and in-person the Sabres-vs-Bruins bloodbaths in the Aud that scared the poop out of ten-ish year old me. That Bills game, and that finish, was my first Bills scar. Extended family members were spitting mad. Those Sicilians...

I mean...that particular drill DOES look effing useless. About as useless as David Carr's analysis. And like Carr himself said: "two things can be true."

Yeah, well, they kinda DID lose that game in terrible, deflating fashion. Only to be bailed out by the refs. I watched the play that lost them the game. It happened. I don't hate this argument. I don't hate it at all.

Maybe this post violates the rules of engagement on a thread like this one, BUT: does anyone else think, and maybe it's been discussed in the first 20 pages I didn't pour over or even acknowledge until quarantine finally broke me, but...is Miami's first pick a bit bonkers? They ignore QB when everyone but Burrow has fallen to them at #5?! That seems crazy by mainstream standards. And I hate it. I don't want them to build a solid roster from top-to-bottom. I want them to swing and miss on an early QB, or at least spend years determining if a young QB is the right guy. Tua doesn't scare me in the pros. Please take Tua.

I really don't understand what you're getting at. I don't think Watkins has ever realized his full potential at the NFL level. That's a fair criticism.

You're right, of course. Reporters/journalists are often unfairly criticized for doing their job to the best of their abilities. But what a nothing burger nonetheless.

See, now this is a really compelling counterpoint. For those of you pooping on the OP's hindsight premise/projections, or on hypothetical football discussions in general, here's a reply that analyzes forward while also looking backward. Maybe the presence of Diggs would have put pressure on Allen to weight his reads in favor of #14, sacrificing overall offensive chemistry/cohesion with a mostly-new battery of weapons? OR, conversely maybe the presence of Diggs would have put pressure on defenses to back out of those cover-0 pressure packages? I'm thinking of the last pass against Baltimore: would Diggs have fared better against Peters on that play? Would Brown have also fared better against their #2 CB (Smith?) on that same play? Interesting questions. What else are we supposed to do with our fandom these days?

With all due respect and good humor, I applaud this sentence. I only wish my underprepared college writing students wrote sentences that were this clear in spite of all the words getting in the way.

Breaking news. Thanks, Vic.

A player can only be judged upon his play. The player has no say in where he is drafted. The general manager who drafts the player, however, SHOULD be judged based upon draft value relative to performance. Think critically.

Really well-explained argument here. Bravo. I can't say for sure you're wrong, because what do I really know about what will happen in the future, but you sure aren't giving us much insight into why you think what you think.

The RB debate is compelling. Nice to see a number of you here recognizing the NEED for another RB who isn't JustAGuy. Singletary missed time last season, and as noted, hasn't yet displayed: a nose for the endzone (could've been due in part to Gore being the primary goal line guy) or a knack for receiving (definitely needs to develop there), pass-blocking, and straight-line power. I like the player. He's fun to watch, and effective. But he's not the only piece a versatile offense needs back there. And we know the Bills want to be versatile. Yeldon brings (sneaky effective) pass-catching. Full stop. The roster has no power or speed at RB. Maybe they sign a FA who fills the void. But many of us think a 2nd or 3rd round pick could land a dynamic weapon who would help the offense more than any other pick in those rounds.

You say he's "one of those rare guys" like it's a good thing. But he's not a steak. He's raw so he'll need time to learn the game...but don't worry, his body will break down sooner because he's old(er), too.

You can't make me.

I'm saying it has to do with a guy whose specialty is fantasy football analysis. Which has little to do with actual football analysis And I'll discuss what I please, thank you.

Oof. Your hard work is GREATLY AND SINCERELY (I'm not kidding, for once) appreciated, but it's no reason to hop on a cross over a misused word.

I dig your directness.

You don't think those biases are informed by a Bills team that does not perform highly in most fantasy metrics? We haven't had beastly WRs or consistently productive RBS in a couple years (or decades), at least. Allen has put up some numbers in fantasy terms, but doesn't record the passing volume that makes him elite week in and week out. Our DEs and DTs might get pressure but they don't record many sacks. Our secondary is amazing but doesn't take the ball away a ton. It seems like you made my point for me (which doesn't have to mean you're wrong in any way). The Bills aren't a statistically impressive team, with respect to fantasy production, and this particular fantasy analyst ranks their roster a bit harshly as a result. And I don't really agree with that statistical production-based assessment.

That's exactly what I was getting at. Fans often see college production and success and want a player based on that past performance at a lower level of difficulty. Scouts often see through all that to focus on the traits to project how the player might perform under VERY different conditions at the NFL level. Both approaches get it wrong. Both have merit. I tend to weight it 60/40 in favor of traits. Maybe more. The experts are usually better at this than the fans. But not always.

I'm curious about the entire crew, to be honest...

Just filthy. He a dawg.

The analysts who focus primarily on fantasy football need to be viewed almost exclusively through the lens of fantasy football. NFL statistical production matters very much, but is also so contingent upon so many variables. It's different than other sports. So this kind of analysis and ranking is cool, for fantasy football purposes.

Good stuff here, gang. I find it difficult to disagree with what I'm reading. Some of you value college production, and others (mostly one personnel evaluator here) value traits. Burrow's production was legendary this past season. No doubt. But will he be able to enjoy similar success at the next level, with different coaching and much greater competition both physically and schematically? That's the question. When Kirk Cousins was on the market a couple years ago, I had decided I wanted the Bills to go all-in on a precise pocket passer like him. I convinced myself he was the answer, and that NFL success still requires pocket precision above all else. And I think that is right, IF (and maybe only if) a number of other offensive factors are consistently accounted for (like scheme, protection, running game, weapons, etc.) at an above-average level. Immobile guys with average-ish arms (like a Cousins or a Brady, for example) have a difficult time producing at a high level when things around them break down. And more often than not in the NFL, things break down a bit. With the margins as thin as they are these days, it seems like physical gifts and improvisational ability are damn near essential to NFL success (let's just set aside the TB12 outlier for SO MANY reasons). Sure, a Manning and a Brees can win one or two 'ships when everything lines up (even though that was a while back now), and can certainly be successful overall. But who will be winning the next ten SBs? Probably REALLY physically talented QBs who also play the position well.

Don't rile them up. Social justice as a valid and important subset of American civic life triggers some people who don't wish to hear complaints from historically marginalized peoples. Let's just stick to the NFL.

I'm coming at this from a similar perspective. Ordinarily I rage against investing much in the RB position. Truly. Pass rush is far more important. But then again, pass rush is most valuable when playing with a lead. And we're often reminded that scoring lots of points above all else is the best path to success in the modern NFL. DE should ideally be valued more highly in the draft. But what if the RBs available are just so much more impactful than the DEs available on Day Two? I mean, the guys from Wisconsin, LSU, FSU, Utah, etc. are really dynamic prospects. I don't think the (potentially) available DEs come close this year. The Bills offense needs another option at RB, whether Singletary is awesome or not.