grb

All we've seen from Nate is preseason play, almost exclusively against (and with) the 2s & 3s. But please remember : His preseason results were a 54.4% completion percentage for 5.4 yards per attempt. His longest pass was 28 yds long. To contrast, Taylor facing a brutal defense Sunday in a regular season game completed 68% for 5.0 yards per attempt. Personally, I think Peterman facing Carolina - with McCoy gaining .8 yards per attempt & the running backs getting 14 yards all day - would have been an unmitigated disaster.

Geez ..... Sometimes I feel like we're drowning in clichés here. (1) "We all know TT waits until the receiver is open ..." Except : No one waits until a receiver is open to throw a forty yard pass. (2) Above we see this gem : "(Taylor) doesn't throw receivers open" Except : That's exactly what he did this play. He led the receiver away from the coverage and into the endzone. All it required was a microscopic adjustment to the route Jones was running. Not, mind you, the route he was supposed to be running - presumably to the front pylon - because then the adjustment would have been even smaller. (3) I wonder what people think receivers running a deep route typically do. Here's a hint : How many times have you seen a receiver slow-up because the pass is coming in short? That's because he looked back and adjusted to the incoming pass. If you run a sideline out, you cut and expect the ball in your hands. But if you're running forty or fifty yards downfield you make your route precise as possible (Jones fail), you get your head back to track the pass (Jones fail), and then you make your play on the ball (Jones fail). ZJ's route was too shallow, he was clueless where the pass was until it was already on top of him, and he made an incredibly clumsy play on the ball. If you take a half-stutter step, jump straight-up, and the ball grazes between your hands, then I guarantee the pass is sitting pretty if you just run it through. All this is Receiver 101, but nobody blames Jones for a rookie miscue. (4) You know who should take some blame tho? Those responsible for that rookie not being an alternate Three playing in the slot - with Holmes, and behind Sammie Watkins & Anquan Boldin.

The Catholic Church requires two miracles for canonization. I'm one of TT's supporters and even I admit the man is a few miracles short....

The Carolina game was horrible to watch, offense-wise. But it is rather bizarre to see people choking with rage against Taylor about a game where the Bills' running backs rushed for fourteen yards. You can say it's because the Panthers loaded the box (ie : Taylor's fault), but you'd be wrong. According to NFL NextGen Stats, McCoy faced eight or more men in the box on 25-percent of his carries against the Carolina, which was actually a below average percentage for NFL running backs on Sunday. Carolina's front seven is just that good. OK; you can say that : McCoy's 8yds & 0.8 yds per attempt is understandable because he ran into a buzz-saw of a defense. Yet Taylor somehow doesn't even get that as a secondary consideration. Finally, you can say McCoy has done a lot for the Bills, so you cut him some slack. But that's the most bizarre of all. Because regardless of TT's limitations or long-term status with the team, he has played hard and made plays. And in the Carolina game? He was the only person on the offense who came remotely close to providing a spark. Hell, he was 80% of the Bills' rushing and 93% of their total offense.

Interesting. I've assumed it was a front pylon throw which Taylor cheated inside to lead away from the coverage. Jones ran a slightly shallow route, didn't track the pass until the last split second, and made a clumsy play on the ball. With that scenario even the tiniest adjustment by Jones to the pass makes an easy catch crossing the goal line. But some people here think it was a back pylon route. If so, Taylor's pass was perfect and the route Jones ran even worse. Has anyone confirmed it one way or another?

Not to thrash a moldy horse carcass, but I think a roster spot for Jonathan Williams might have been more valuable than, say, Taiwan Jones. Williams would have provided a different kind of relief for McCoy over Tolbert. Cutting JW still seems like a strange move to me.......

Yep. It wasn't a drop, being actually an exceptional effort at a catch. Unfortunately that effort was required by Jones' own mistakes. Look, draw a straight line to the pylon and Taylor's pass was a little bit inside, Jones' route a little bit outside. But Taylor's throw led the play away from the cornerback and into the end zone. Jones' route angled towards the sideline and coverage. But that just set-up the real problem. Jones didn't track the pass until the absolute last second, and then made an extremely bad play on the ball. The result was a half-stutter-step and twisting jump straight up. If he had just run it thru the pass drops right over his shoulder. Not to pick on the man, but Watkins makes that catch ten out of ten times and it looks easy every time. Run a quick out and, yes, you expect the ball right on the hands. But with a forty yard pass, I think most league receivers aren't surprised if they have to tweak the end of the route a few feet. And we're talking about the smallest of adjustment here. After all, Jones ran a too-shallow route, had no idea where the pass was until the last possible second, totally misplayed the ball - and yet still it grazes his hand. It was a rookie mistake, no more.

He would have been in a much better situation on a Bills team with Watkins & Boldin, where he could have stayed in the slot & had less pressure to develop quickly. Not to be tho......

No quarterback regularly gets the ball out in 1.5 seconds. The lowest averages tend to fall around 2.25, though Carr right now is 2.07. The next quickest is Siemian at 2.27. The slowest is Kizer at 3.03, meaning everyone in the league is bunched into a one second interval. Taylor, of course, had the highest number last year at somewhere around 3.3, though the bottom ranks are typically filled with extremely mobile quarterbacks, suggesting scrambling skews the numbers. Right now Brady is at 2.69 and Taylor is at 2.86. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#yards

Draw a straight line to the pylon and Taylor's pass was a little bit inside and Jones' route was a little bit outside. The only difference is Taylor's throw led the play away from coverage and into the end zone. Which brings us to the real problem : Jones didn't track the pass until the absolute last second, and then made an extremely bad play on the ball. Yeah, it looked like a heroic effort to catch a bad pass, but that's what happens when you take a half-stutter-step and jump straight up. Just run it thru and the pass drops right over the shoulder. Not to pick on ZJ, but Watkins makes that catch ten out of ten times and makes it look easy. Run a quick out and, yes, you expect the ball right on the hands. But with a forty yard pass, I think most league receivers aren't surprised if they have to tweak the end of the route a few feet. And we're talking about a microscopic adjustment here. How small? Jones runs a shallow route, has no idea where the pass is until the last possible moment, totally misplays the ball - and still it goes thru his hands.

Once the cliches build up momentum, it's impossible to stop them. "Stack the box with 8"...? Guess again : According to NFL NextGen Stats, McCoy faced eight or more men in the box on 25 percent of his carries against the Panthers. That was actually a smaller percentage than average for NFL running backs on Sunday. Incidentally, the lower than average "stack the box" number was true of the Jets game as well. Carolina didn't need to stack the box. They won the battle at the line with their front seven alone.

Try out this : Dennison means that Taylor was the only person on the offense even remotely making plays. The offensive line was a mess. The receivers were non-entities. The running backs gained fourteen yards total. Taylor was 80% of the rushing attack. So, yes, Taylor had a horrible game - but everyone else was worse.

100% correct.

There are four problems with this : (1) Peterson's camp and preseason was mediocre at best. (2) Peterson's preseason was almost all against the twos & threes. Granted, he was also playing with the twos & threes, but that's why preseason performance is such a crapshoot. (3) Peterson was sheltered in preseason in a way Taylor wasn't. Taylor's reps weren't geared towards producing yardage or points, but basic mechanics. For instance, look at how often TT was in the shotgun vs NP. Also, they didn't run anything like the offense in the preseason. The coaches noted that several times. (4) It's not a question of comparing Peterson's preseason with Taylor's. The latter has two seasons starting real games that mean something. That's the point of comparison with NP. And Taylor's real-season record easily - repeat easily - beats out anything Peterson showed so far.

With the Clay Thing last week I didn't think there was enough fault to lay on anyone; it was just a play which didn't come off. Here I think otherwise : Taylor threw to the pylon, cheating just a bit to the inside to lead away from the cornerback. Jones ran tight to the sideline out at the five yard line, looked back for the pass over his right shoulder, took one stumbling step and jumped up vertically. However with just another stride the ball would have dropped right over his shoulder for an easy touchdown. ZJ did an awkward job tracking the pass and misjudged badly making a play on the ball. No one knows where the route was supposed to go, but if it to the pylon, Taylor's pass was better than Jones' route - even if you don't assume Taylor was purposely throwing Jones away from the coverage. Every game every Sunday receivers running deep make adjustments on the ball. It's a basic receiver skill with a pass plus-minus forty yards thru the air.

Given the offense was a complete disaster all day, obsessing on this one play seems kinda futile, but I guess we must. So : (1) A lot of people here fall into two camps : The "if the receiver gets two hands on the ball it should be a catch" folk, or the "Jones had to jump so it was a bad throw" folk. Both views aren't fair to the players involved and way too simplistic. (2) On the other hand, a lot of people here get very sophisticated with analysis of routes and safety / cornerback coverage. The problem there is what we don't know. I can assume it was a pylon throw bumped slightly to the left to lead away from the cornerback, but that's just speculation. (3) But here's what I see : Jones looks back for the ball over his right shoulder. At this point all he needs to do is continue two strides, look over his left shoulder, and the ball drops into his hands as he crosses the goal line. Instead he takes one stumbling stride, plants & leaps straight up. It was an extremely awkward play on the ball. That seems to me the most relevant point.

The key is Frank. (obscure Dylan reference)

Where's Brady when you need'em?

There's been enough detailed analysis of this play to play to reach War & Peace length. It's been an interesting debate to follow, particularly because it's been more civil & factually-oriented than a lot of topics, particularly concerning Taylor. Whether commentators have blamed Taylor, Clay, or some combination thereof, they've dug deep into the minutia to support their point - one side answering the other in kind. All of which leads me to believe there isn't a lot of there there. If you blame Clay, you still concede it was a difficult catch from someone who was immediately after hammered. If you blame Taylor, you still concede he didn't have any ideal place to put the ball. I'm not disparaging all the analysis, which has been very informative to read. But given the degree people have needed to qualify their conclusion on who's to blame, there just ain't a lot of blame left.....

Interesting point to check. Let's take the Jets game as an example : Mr. Taylor was 16-28, which included 2-3 drops, 2 passes tipped at the line, and 4 balls thrown away (for which McDermott gave great praise btw). So doing the math, we have 3-4 attempts in which to find Taylor's lack of "consistent accuracy with passes". That description fits with one, maybe two of those. I would point out that every quarterback whiffs on a throw or two a game - even the ones who don't "lack consistent accuracy with passes" - but why bother? Of course you'll say the Jets game is atypical and you'll be right. Usually Taylor has a much higher completion percentage.......

With Gisele, even trouble would be sweet.....

Brady was dealing with a Bills-like mess at receiver. People here have insisted it shouldn't make a difference - often citing Brady as their proof. Needless to say however, it does.

Not to quibble, but that statement is based on absolutely nothing. Yes, there was a feeding frenzy of speculation in the media saying just that, but no one got a direct quote, or a background quote, or a deep background quote, or anything like a reliable second-hand deep background quote. Someone was being very careful with what was said. If I had to speculate, this was the chain of events : Post-15 season : Whaley signs a deal with Taylor which is a simultaneous bet TT is either a spectacular success or flop. If the former, Whaley has him locked down long-term at cheap rates. If the latter, Whaley can dump TT after the season. Taylor signs the deal because it's his first shot at real money. Post-16 season (a) : Taylor was neither spectacular or a flop. Whaley does not want a long-term commitment, but had no foreseeable alternative. Renegotiation was the obvious choice Post-16 season (b) : The dance begins. The Bills have to write TT off as yesterday's news without actually insulting someone they look to sign As for Taylor, his payout this season is equal to - or slightly more - than his old deal. Believing in himself, he thinks he'll do better with a future contract over the old one. He wasn't going to get the long-term guaranteed money of the old contract on the open market, but probably could have gotten short-term money equal to - or slightly more - than the Bills deal. He thought the Bills were a better vehicle this year to show himself for the contract to come. Time will test his judgment. Overall, once the Bills decided they couldn't commit long-term, the deal worked-out was pretty good for both parties.

Heck, you want to go into full speculation-mode, you might as well imagine Donald Trump buys the team...... Buffalo takes one for the country !!!

You could say the same kind of thing about virtually any stat. But given the slowest numbers were all from extremely mobile quarterbacks, it's pretty clear the bottom end was heavily influenced by scrambling. Of course a stat with all the numbers bunched within one second of each other has limited value, even before adding context. Suffice it to say Brady is more decisive than Taylor, and all NFL quarterbacks have to see, read, decide, and act by three ticks of a second hand. Even while being assaulted by 300lb behemoths, no less........