Mikey152

Great information. 491. That's the lowest number of pass attempts in the league last year. The Bills will probably throw the ball at least 550 times. Somebody on the Bills is gonna get those targets. Whether we have 8 guys with 500 yards receiving or one or two with close to 1000 and a bunch with 3-400 remains to be seen, but no matter how bad you think our WR are, there are at least 350-400 catches out there. Let me put it this way...everyone hates on Gabe Davis, but last year he was top 50 in yards and top 25 in TDs for the entire NFL. That includes RB and TE, so at the very least he is an average to above average #2 WR when it comes to counting stats. Every Bills fan knows his efficiency was propped up by big plays, and his catch % was trash, but apparently numbers are numbers. Guess we should have kept him. Personally, I'd rather give those 80 targets to somebody more consistent. Even if his efficiency is similar or lower, I'd be ok with that for a better catch rate. That said, I think both Coleman and Claypool are capable of repeating his efficiency with a better catch rate in the right circumstances. 55 catches for 700-800 yards puts that WR squarely as a solid #2 option numbers wise.

Their "best slot in the NFL" was a fourth round pick and is 6' 202 with a 4.5 40. The number one predictor of production in the NFL at WR is targets. St. Brown gets a lot of targets because their other receivers suck. So is he really the best slot receiver in the NFL, or is he just the most targeted? Targets correlate to production, but they don't always correlate to talent. He's the best receiver on the Lions, so he gets lots of targets. If he was a Dolphin, for example, he probably only gets half those targets at best. So tell me why Shakir or Samuel can't do what he does. Why Kincaid cant do what Laporta did. And yes their line is better, but Buffalos QB is WAY better. As for OC, if he is top 3 why isn't he a HC?

I don't know, I think we can run something like the Lions offense.

At this point, we might as well just call a spade a spade...confirmation bias everywhere on both sides. What I can't figure out is why there are so many negative opinions on a Bills board...an NFL board, I get. But this is Bills fans arguing with other Bills fans about how bad something that hasn't even happened yet is going to be. Even worse, you're down on a team that has won the second most games in the NFL since 2020 and has the best point differential over that span. ZERO benefit of the doubt, ZERO context...honestly, it's kinda weird. If our recievers, team, coaches, FO, etc all suck as bad as you guys seem to think, Josh Allen is pretty much the greatest person that ever lived.

And yet, 2020 isn't even the year people point to when they say they didn't fulfil their promise. It was 2021, and in 2021 they averaged 6.8 ypa and all their passing metrics went down despite having basically the same core. Diggs YPT in 2021 was garbage.

The Bills are going to throw the ball like 550 times. Our current receiver core didn't have nearly that many targets last year, so SOMEBODY is gonna get more targets. If you project normal increases for their roles and use their average YPT, you're looking at 4500 yards. That's assuming some positive and negative regression. That's not a feeling, it is basic math. So unless you think that these WR are so bad that they can't even crack 7 YPT in an increased role with Josh Allen as the QB...you're overreacting.

Lets try this another way... 6 teams scored more than 50 touchdowns last season on offense. Dolphins, 9ers, Lions, Cowboys, Ravens and Bills. 5 of them were in the top 10 in rushing yards. 5 of them were in the top 10 in passing yards. Cowboys and Ravens were most unbalanced (shocker). The 2023 Lions are a perfect example of the hypocrisy around skill players. St. Brown is a 6' slot receiver that was drafted in the 4th round, and LaPorta was a 3rd round TE. Their high pick WR has had health issues and put up 24 catches last season. Their #2 WR was a journeyman with 600 yards as his best ever season. And their QB was another teams garbage. They did have two backs almost run for 1k each and two pro bowlers on the Oline. Heading into the season, that looked like trash. But their offense was one of the best in the NFL and their OC (who runs A LOT) is considered one of the best in the NFL. St. Brown got a massive deal despite being a 4th round pick because he produced in the slot with tons of targets. It's almost like all some guys need is an opportunity and balance can result in a great offense.

Which league ranking, exactly, are you referring to?

You keep talking about 2020/2021 like nothing has changed... Offense across the league is down since then, especially passing offense and even more significantly passing in the Red Zone. It's a big reason Gabe Davis seemed to regress...Teams started playing more two high and refs started calling less DPI. It was easier to neutralize him. To me, that was the biggest change going from Dorsey to Brady. Dorsey continued to call plays like nothing had changed, and the only reason we didn't completely suck is because he has the best QB in the NFL on his team. When Brady took over, our efficiency went way down, but we were finally taking what the defense was giving us. I think we realized pretty quick that our roster was not built for more of a possession and YAC game, though. Inconsistent hands and pretty bad ball skills across the board. Right plays, wrong players. Only Shakir looked like a fit. Not a coincidence he is the only WR left. I think Stef could do it, but lets be real...his bread and butter is winning routes against man and making catches downfield. He was never a great after catch guy and most of his drops were on quick passes where LB might be lurking so he isn't trying to work middle zones. So, like them or not, our new WR do fit what Brady wants to do and the way the NFL is trending better. If we had more money (Stef dead cap) maybe we get a better player than MVS/Claypool as the Vet X, but I think Shakir and Samuel are exactly who they need at Y and Z...guys who make catches and can make things happen with the ball in their hands.

To be fair, the league has changed since 2020 (our actual best offensive season) and 2021. Defenses are playing more conservatively to limit big plays. We also see a lot less defensive penalties. Trying to pass like it's 2021 into that might not yield the results you expect. https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-offense-scoring-penalties-efficiency-2023/

If you count Diggs dead money, the Bills are spending ~17% of their cap on WR (depends on final roster). That's more than any other position, including QB. Flat out, if you don't like the WR room right now...it's mostly a Diggs thing.

Or, we can just completely forget defense and spend all our money and draft picks on WR...we will definitely win the fantasy football championship super bowl then

Are you really trying to say that KC WR evaluators are better than Buffalo's? In the last 5 years, the Bills drafted Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakir out of 4 picks with none in the first three rounds. The Chiefs, in those same 5 years, Drafted Rice, Moore and Powell (two of them on day 2) Not exactly killing it to the point Id be worried they knew something we didn't. But the point remains that the BILLS had them graded the same and potentially would have taken Coleman at 28 anyway. There is nothing indicating that he wasn't #1 for them in that tier...

Fine...you go to the store and go to buy literally anything. There are multiple options that are only different colors of said item. Because of the color, some are more expensive than others. Buying the cheaper one because you don't care about the color doesn't mean you don't care about the thing you bought (or maybe you even prefer the cheaper color) You can laugh all you want, but this is pretty much how every team runs their board. They focus on positions and tiers, not on players. Sure, they might have favorites...but focusing on them and taking them before their grade is amateur hour.

That's such silly logic... Unless you can definitively say that Worthy or Legette was significantly higher on their board, the idea that they were focused on a position more so than a player says the complete OPPOSITE of what you are saying. They prioritized the position, not a player. If somebody came to you and said "Here are three Iphones...A black one, a white one and a gold one. If you pick your color first, you get no rebate. If you take what is left, you get $200 off" and you took the $200, you might not care about colors but you clearly DO care about phones. I think they just did it a different way...several new faces at WR that are 28 or less and former high picks.

I thought about listing him, too...but I'm not trying to give more unnecessary ammo to the "he's unproven" crowd. I saw him play plenty at Penn State, and he is about as explosive as they come. I think he is a bit more unlikely because of his injury history and moreso because his hands are inconsistent...but he is another guy in the same vein that could explode in the right circumstances. Further proves the point, though....there are several talented players on the Bills offense. For whatever reason, they have not been able to turn that in to careers worthy of that talent so far. Glass half full thinks this is the year for at least a few of them...glass half empty thinks it isn't. what I don't get is why there are so many glass half empty fans on a Bills message board. If you are that frustrated in the offseason, why even be a fan in the first place? Perhaps you need to take a look at yourselves in the mirror and check your pride at the door.

Curtis Samuel has some of the best win rates in the entire NFL. Listen, I get it...everyone is looking for reasons the Bills will fail again, and WR is the whipping boy this year like MLB was the whipping boy last season. There is a difference between incapable and unproven. The Bills have SEVERAL talented receiving options drafted in the first two rounds of the draft in the last decade. Coleman was basically a first rounder. Kincaid, Claypool, Cook and Samuel are all high draft picks and highly skilled players that have had success in the NFL. None of them have been stars, sure, but none of them have really gotten that opportunity yet, either. Add in guys like Shakir and MVS who have a bit less pedigree, but have produced in limited capacity, and you have a roster full of maybes. Is that ideal? Probably not...but IMO you are putting WAY too much weight on proven/notproven

His style is definitely unorthodox...it reminds me a bit of Stevie, who also was a basketball guy. Gotta love the ball skills, tho.

He would also represent our highest pick since 2019.

That's the real problem, here...Bills fans don't trust the Admin, so they assume the worst. Just like at LB last year.

We don't have a proven #1 We also don't have any guys that have gotten #1 targets. Your argument might be that they've never been good enough to earn those targets, but Im not sure I agree. There was a point in time where Chase Claypool was the next big thing. At 6'4 240 with a 4.4 40 and 40 inch vertical, he is a freak athlete. Ive already discussed Samuel on here. Shakir led the NFL in efficiency last season, and only got better with more targets at the end of the season. Coleman is super young and was a two sport athlete at Michigan freaking state. Like, a point guard for a team that competes for national championships...and we make fun of his athleticism and call him a "big slot" which is just code for slow. What this all really comes down to, IMO, is trust. Bills fans on this board don't trust the GM and they don't trust the coaches. Especially at WR. So the glass is half empty.

First, I was talking about Curtis Samuel, not Shakir. Second, I wasn't "cherry picking" I was using his lone season working with Joe Brady. I even accounted for regression. honestly, It wasn't even really about Samuel (or Shakir), it's more about Diggs. Two of his 4 seasons in Buffalo he had a YPT at or below 7.5. That is not good for an outside receiver, and it is REALLY not good for a guy you are targeting 160 times. Was Diggs 2020 awesome? Yes. Was his 2022, after he rededicated himself and gained some muscle in the wake of 13 seconds almost as good? Yes. But 2021 and definitely 2023...not as much. He got top 10 in the NFL targets and returned top 50 production. To act like Curtis Samuel couldn't do something like that with that many targets is just silly. The reason the responses in this thread bothered me is because most of them talked about how Samuel "isn't talented" or "isn't in the same league" but that's just ridiculous. Unproven, injury prone, whatever...I get those arguments. But while opportunity and talent are often correlated, there isn't always a causal relationship there. In fact, that has ALWAYS been the deal when it comes to Curtis Samuel. Several OCs, bad QBs, several young WR in the room, bad injury timing. All I am saying is, his production to this point is not a true indicator of who he is...all you have to do is watch him play to see that. Go to a Panther or Commander board and ask about him. As for Matthews...his YPT were TRASH. And can we please stop with the "he was #1 so he got the #1 corner" like that is a thing? Most teams don't have their corners follow guys these days, and lots of "#1" receivers get snaps out of the slot.

And here I thought you aren't allowed to extrapolate rates...

Samuel

This thread is depressing. it reminds me a lot of the linebacker threads from last season. I realize they are heading into this season without a lot of production at WR. If that is what you are using to measure how good their WR core is, I guess I get why you are down on them. But the amount of potential they have at wideout this season is WAY higher than any recent season, and for significantly less money. Shakir and Samuel have elite advanced analytics, but are low on production due to targets so their numbers aren’t good. MVS and Claypool are probably the best HWS guys the Bills have had since TO was here. Coleman was a top recruit in two sports…I think his athleticism and potential should be obvious. some of you are too focused on production. You are equating that to talent. But production is a trailing indicator, not a leading one. forget the numbers for a second and go watch some of these guys play. They ARE talented…probably more talented than any WR group we have had in recent memory.