Mikey152

Right...more like he doesn't need to be much more than that. He's likely the guy that comes off the field when the Bills go 12. He probably loses snaps to Coleman as the season goes along. On any given play he is probably at best the third read. But he can block. He is big, physical and can get deep. Typical low target, high variance X that can do the dirty work. Is useful, but not integral. I assume they will use MVS the same way.

You should google circular logic... We are at THE BEGINNING of 2024, not the end. If you compare the receiving options of the Bills on day 1 2024 to the Chiefs on day 1 2023, the Bills win in a landslide. You don't have to look any further than the fact that MVS was a starter for the Chiefs (10 games) and is 5th on the Bills depth chart. By the end of the season, SOMEBODY on the Bills will have a career season and close to 1000 yards, maybe even two or three somebodies. It might be Coleman (who is a better prospect than Rice was) or Shakir (who is a better player than Watson) or Mack Hollins (who clearly beat out MVS in camp). That is to say nothing of the Bills best WR, Curtis Samuel, who is light years better than Hardman/Moore/Toney. And, quite honestly, I don't think the gap between 2023 Kelce and 2024 Kincaid is enough to cover that spread above. Flat out, the Bills are gonna throw 500+ times this year. Josh Allen is gonna pass for 4000 yards and somebody is gonna catch those balls and accumulate those yards. There will be a Rice on this team...it's bad faith to act like there won't be. Odds are it is Shakir or Samuel (or both?). The Chiefs didn't hit on some hidden gem...they gave a guy with decent skills a bunch of targets from a great QB. There are probably 100 WR in the NFL that could do that, including 2 or 3 on the Bills.

Have you ever managed someone? Leading a group of grown men isn't about making all the decisions and telling them what to do. It is about guiding them to reach their full potential as a group. You set the strategy (ie give them an install list for the week) then let them help you determine the playcall sheet based on how they feel install went. There is a big difference between something being a good call on paper, and something being a good call on the field. Recognizing that isn't weak, that's great leadership.

Likely practice squad or resigned after IR. He is CS insurance...maybe between the two of them we will get a whole season.

If our talent is not great and our coaches are poor, but we have won the second most games in the NFL over the last 5 years with the best point differential... ...does that mean that Josh Allen is the single greatest player in the history of the NFL? Or maybe some of the assessments of our talent are a bit hyperbolic?

They are the two most valuable players in the league and it isn't close. QB is clearly the most important position on the football field, and it makes sense to invest a sizable portion of your cap in one you think you can win with. Paying the wrong guy probably limits your team, but not as much as having a bad QB...so it is a decent risk. Paying a WR 10+% of your cap when you need to start 3 WR (let alone all the other positions) seems pretty crazy. Sign two more good players and you are saying that WR position (all 3) is as or more important than QB. More important than OL. More important than DL and CB. That is a recent development...it wasn't that long ago that WR was not even a top tier position. We will see what happens with teams that pay WR like the second most important position on the field. What I can say is this...If you are paying a QB top money AND a WR (or 2 WR like the bengals), you better be REALLY good at drafting all the other positions or plan on winning a bunch of shootouts.

To be fair, if this is all club level, it's probably heated seats, too.

But they don't have to be on the line...Kincaid and Knox can both be on the line and close to the formation, for example. Ends don't need to be split wide...backs can line up outside them.

Condensed sets... Kincaid/Shakir/Samuel can be in "the slot" and on the line at the same time. The days of a traditional split end are coming to a close with all the two high zone everyone is playing these days.

Younger, faster and better YAC?

Kind if like how the fact that Shakir was a 5th rounder is causing people to hedge? They never said they needed outside speed...They lost some depth players to injury and are trying to replace them with similar players. You're reading into things that aren't there.

What? Samuel doesn't play like he is fast????

That actually works in JA's favor Josh was 9/14 with 6 tds from inside the 5. He also scored 8 Tds on 14 carries. Mahomes was 16/19 with 12 Tds from inside the 5, and scored 0 TDs on 6 carries. So, Josh was 14/28 (50%) and Mahomes was 12/25 (48%) Jordan Love was 10/15 total, Hurts was 17/26 and Purdy was 9/15. Everyone else was 50% or less or was so far down the total list I didn't bother with the math. What it does show is the Bills put the ball in their QBs hands, run or pass, more than any team in the league inside the 5 last year (aside from Tua, who threw it 28 TIMES!!!! but mostert also ran it a bunch because he failed so often)

I think you need to read the stat again... The stat isn't about scoring from the goalline...it is about passing touchdowns from the goal line. Patrick Mahomes led the NFL in 2023 with 12 touchdown passes from inside the 5 yard line. Josh only had 6. But Josh also had 8 rushing TDs from inside the 5 compared to Mahomes 0. Josh Allen accounted for the second most TDs (passing/rushing) from inside the 5 in the NFL last year (14). He was second to Jalen Hurts. Inside the 20, He had 33 total, and the next closest guy was Hurts with 28. I will say this...our RBs didn't contribute jack squat in the RZ. It's the Josh Allen show.

Two things: First off..Stefon Diggs is a 31 million dollar dead cap hit this season. In order to eat that AND sign or trade for a proven #1, the Bills would likely have to go without at another position or create future cap/roster issues...and unlike the posters on this board that seem to think that WR is the second most important position in football (when did this happen???), they decided that wasn't wise this season. Second, lets take a look at the Bills 11 personnel options this season and last season...not as a list, but in real, practical terms 2024 11 personnel likely has Cook in the backfield, Kincaid at TE, and Shakir, Samuel and Coleman at WR 2023 11 personnel likely has Cook in the backfield, Kincaid at TE, and Diggs, Davis and Shakir at WR On its surface, you'd say Cook is a wash, Kincaid should improve over his rookie season, and swapping in Coleman and Samuel for Diggs and Davis is a huge downgrade...so they got worse. I can easily see how you got there. But lets talk about last year...One of the biggest problems was the offense was too predictable. Davis was almost always on the line and ran like 3 routes. Most of Diggs targets were within 10 yards and he clearly wasn't interested in doing the dirty work when they started losing. Same with Kincaid on the short routes. Shakir was the only one with any kind of surprise to his game, and it's probably why he had the best YPT and YAC by a wide margin. They didn't motion, they didn't really move positions, and they ran a lot of the same concepts over and over. Some of it was the scheme, and some of it was because their players were pretty specialized. It got even worse when Davis got hurt, because nobody could play that role. This season, the receivers might be worse on paper...but they ARE more diverse in both their skill sets and as a group. They are FAR more interchangeable, which allows the offense to have more control over matchups with formation and motion. They all have RAC ability. They all have good ball skills. They probably get a bit more predictable when the backups have to come in, but at least the backups can play on the line and allow the other 2 to remain free to exploit matchups. I am fully aware that they are missing a proven #1. But all of them are decent sized and athletic. They're all smart. They can all catch. And if called upon, they can all perform as a primary receiver. To say it more simply...You keep saying that Samuel had good numbers because he faced #3 corners. Well, if you have 3 receivers that are basically equal, you can pretty much just throw to the one going up against the worst corner over and over...instead of forcing the ball to your best guy who is going up against a top corner. That is the point. Coleman, Shakir and Samuel won't all face a #1 corner AT THE SAME TIME. Somebody gets #3. And if they all can make plays, maybe the #1 changes from week to week, or even series to series...but the production will be there If you listen to Lafluer talk, this is what the philosophy is in green bay

I understand his point. That doesn’t make it factual. You see flaws because you want to see flaws.

Maybe. But to be fair, Our #1 RB the last 5 seasons hasn't exactly been a big back, and they aren't really downhill runners either. As for the passing, I think the Bills and Chiefs have gone opposite directions. Once upon a time, Josh didn't turn the ball over in the RZ...then all of a sudden he did. We threw it alot in 2020. He also got really good at sneaks. Conversely, Mahomes is not a big guy and got hurt on a running play...so the Chiefs moved away from sneaks (and running in general) inside the 5. They use Mahomes legs to create TDs, just in a different way. But at the end of the day, both teams play to their strengths and the Bills works better. For what it is worth, I think Josh would do better passing from inside the 5 than Pat would do running if you flipped the attempts.

On Diggs... You should really look at last season again. He had over 160 targets and didn't break 1200 yards. Compare him to the other guys that got 130+ targets and the only WRs who were less efficient were Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams...both of them had trash at QB all season. He was low in 20+ yard plays, 1st down %, yac, etc. In other words, he was one of the worst #1 receivers in the NFL. Do I think any of our current guys can do better with that many targets? Not sure...maybe not. But I also don't think we are gonna see that. Do I think that Kincaid, Coleman, Samuel and Shakir will have better combined #s than Diggs, Davis, Shakir and Kincaid last year on a similar number of targets?...You bet.

I was curious Top 5 WR from last season: Diggs - 5th - 6' - 191 - 4.46 Davis - 4th - 6'2" - 225 - 4.54 Shakir - 5th - 6' - 190 - 4.42 Sherfield - NA - 6'1 - 205 - 4.45* Harty - NA - 5'6" - 170 - 4.48* *pro day Top 5 WR for 2024: Shakir - 5th - 6' - 190 - 4.42 Samuel - 2nd - 5'11" - 195 - 4.31 Coleman - 2nd - 6'3" - 213 - 4.61 MVS - 5th - 6'4" - 206 - 4.38 Hollins - 4th - 6'4" - 221 - 4.53 So, compared to last season this years receivers are younger, significantly higher drafted, taller, heavier, and (outside of Coleman) faster. They are also WAY cheaper.

Josh scores more than Pat from inside 5 yards. I didn't do that math, but just based on where Josh ranked each year...he probably scores more than every other QB in the NFL inside the 5. Splitting hairs about HOW he does that and using to bash Josh, the receivers or the Oline seems silly. Almost as silly as using as a way to explain why the Chiefs win more.

Thanks for answering...you kind of confirmed what I figured. None of the Bills WR are proven in the NFL as anything more than a #3 or low end/gadget #2. I don't think there is really any arguing that point. All the difference comes down to projection: Is that their ceiling, or their floor? What is clear from this thread is it depends on who you ask. Negative or "realistic" posters tend to favor what has already happened. Low target share, poor cumulative stats, draft position, contract, etc. Positive posters tend to favor things like context (ie depth chart and QB), efficiency stats, measurables, etc. Both of these statements are true...the Bills WR are both less productive (ie worse) AND bigger/stronger/faster and higher drafted than last years roster.

In 2019, Josh was tied with Mahomes for Passing TDs from inside the 5. (4 to 4) In 2020, Josh had more passing touchdowns than Mahomes from inside the 5. (14 to 13) In 2021, Pat had more (13 to 9) In 2022, Pat had more (16 to 8 ) In 2023, Pat had more (12 to 6) thats 58 for pat and 41 for Josh Over that same period of time Josh has 28 rushing tds from inside the 5 and Mahomes has 6. In case you were wondering, thats 64 for pat and 69 for Josh

And the Chiefs pass because they can't sneak...and round and round we go.

But, if they have a terrific offensive line, shouldn't they NOT use a sneak because of the 3rd one? Hurts is just as $$$ as Allen is. The point is the Eagles have the best QB sneak team in the league. The Bills have the second best. Third isn't really even close. The Bills don't sneak because they have to, they sneak because it works. Josh has a better percentage than Pat with the Ball in his hands inside the 5. Period. In 2023, anyway...I didn't look at other seasons

Can I ask a somewhat simple question? What is your definition of addressing the position well? I ask because I feel like we go round and round on this and the goalposts keep moving to fit a narrative. Coleman isn't the first pick in the second round, he's the 8th receiver drafted (Tee Higgins was 7th and Michael Pittman was 8th at the top of the 2nd in 2020). Shakir isn't the most efficient receiver in the league last year, he's a 5th round pick (but so was Diggs). Samuel is a gadget guy and Hollins is a special teamer, but Darnell Mooney and Gabe Davis are difference makers because they signed a bigger contract. So what is it? Draft slot, production, RAS score, contract? Because as far as I can tell, it's whatever makes them look bad. It feels like confirmation bias.