Mikey152

...I didn't make the thread

I am sure having Cooper has been a great addition, but to act like he is the key that unlocked it all is kind of silly. He really isn't getting a lot of snaps or targets and certainly not enough to explain the sudden increase in production. The real difference the last two weeks has been A) Healthy Shakir B) Emergence of Coleman (taking snaps from Hollins and MVS) C) Worse teams and a home game. I will say, Samuel was a big miss on my part. He just has not been a factor, at all. That clearly hurt their ability to beat man against good defenses, and it also pushed some guys up the roster that maybe shouldn't be getting so many snaps.

sounds silly, but it almost makes sense to get a personal foul intentionally.

Maybe I can ask this way... What is more likely, last season...that Stephon Diggs lost a step and could no longer "separate" or that changes to the scheme limited his ability to do so in favor of a more team-based offensive system? In other words, certain routes and/or route combinations make it easier for receivers to win against man. So do certain alignments and personnel groupings. This idea that a good receiver just constantly separates from coverage regardless of who is covering them, where they line up, or what route they run is ridiculous and not at all realistic. I would bet money that teams that more frequently use 6 OL, 12 personnel, and condensed sets tend to have a lower average WR separation regardless of their perceived talent. They also probably have a better epa and running game, so it's a trade off.

I don't know, does it? Matt Harmon also loves Curtis Samuel because he separates... Matt Harmon has an agenda. The idea that on a given play all the receivers will be open/separating is just silly.

Dorsey had a JA friendly system...

Ah yes, I am sure Ross Tucker poured over hours of tape before making that claim... And I have watched the games and some all-22, including some posted on here. In fact, there were just two clips the other day "proving" that our WR don't get separation...Only, the first they showed had 7 DBs in cover 2 and Kincaid could have been wide open but he ran right at the safety, not to mention the back was available and Josh didn't even look at him. But please, tell me all about how that was on the WR. FWIW, Diggs wasn't really getting separation when they made the switch to Brady, either...everyone assumed he just lost a step or was disinterested. But maybe it has more to do with the scheme, and more specifically with the type of adjustments they are allowed to run. It's pretty clear (to me) that, unlike under Dorsey, the WR are being coached to run the routes as assigned. That pretty much means the route combinations become the coverage beater, not the player. In theory, that works...but it forces your QB to process a lot more information pre and post snap and generally only one or two guys will be open on a given play. Oh and as for teams with bad receivers throwing less to first read...maybe you should take off the blinders and look at the other teams below average in that stat...Bears, Packers, Lions, Niners, Vikings...those are all good receiver teams.

A few things: There is no way someone can, with 100% accuracy, determine the first read in a play simply by watching all-22. Beyond that, who is compiling/vetting these charts? Credentials? Bottom line, this is not an objective stat and should t be treated as one. Second, even if this stat is 100% true, I think you are committing a logical fallacy due to confirmation bias. Your premise is the WR suck, and this “stat” which doesn’t say if the first read was open or not, if the first read was even a WR, or the type of defense being played against the call confirms it because the first read isn’t good enough to get open. there are a lot of reasons this is happening, and I don’t even know wr is at the top of the list. First, Josh has always had a tendency to hold the ball…he’s not really an anticipatory thrower AND he has a ton of confidence in his ability to extend plays. Second, this offense has changed to more of a “run your route” style offense, which means the post snap defense has a lot of influence on where the ball is going. His first read is going to be based on his presnap read. It’s not like he picks a receiver and says “get open” and the receiver can’t, so he moves on. Honestly, I don’t think the problem is the receivers, per se. I think trying to read the whole field under pressure while trying to not make a mistake is causing Josh to be indecisive. It doesn’t help that none of the receivers can just destroy man coverage and make it easy for him, I guess…but he shouldn’t need that if he is who we think he is. pretty much, I think Josh is the best thrower of the football in the NFL and I don’t think it is close…that covers up the fact that he is middle of the pack when it comes to decision making, and this offense and receiver core is exposing that to a certain extent. Hopefully some more “easy” reads with Cooper gets the job done.

Do you not see what is happening here? Your original premise was the Bills offense will struggle because they have bad WR. That we are wasting Josh Allen. Clearly through three games, this has not been the case. So now you have moved on to the premise that Josh and Brady are doing this IN SPITE of the Wr. I can show you your bias pretty easily… Our Qb is low in attempts (don’t trust him), most of his passes are around the LOS (probably because he throws so many picks otherwise), He barely completes passes to his WR despite the fact they are one of the most efficient groups in the nfl (game manager), and he never throws to his first read (indecisive and timid). You give Josh the benefit of the doubt because you think he is great…but he’s middle of the pack in yards this year too, yall. He’s also on track for not even cracking 4K, and yet this is his best season ever. i won’t go as far as to say it is hypocrisy, but it is 100% rooted in bias heading into the season. With Josh, you think he is great so you focus on the good. With the WR, you think they suck so you focus on the bad. Maybe, just maybe…football is a team sport, and the Bills have built a good team. WR included.

Ironically, this same crowd told me all offseason that I wasn’t allowed to project rate stats. (Even though that’s literally the point)…but apparently highly variable volume stats are fine to project.

That's why this thread is pointless... They are starting with a premise (the WR are bad) and using confirmation bias to support their theory. Josh could have the best season of his life and win the MVP, and sentiments in here will be that he did it IN SPITE of his WR. How silly is that? Here is my question to all the haters: Joe Brady isn't new. Josh Allen isn't new. The Oline isn't new. The RB aren't new. The TE isn't new. Even the scheme isn't really new. The only thing that is new this season is the WR room. Why are you SO sure that some of this success isn't because they are good in this scheme? And if they are good in this scheme and the offense and team succeeds, doesn't that make them good for the Bills? And doesn't that equally make guys like Diggs and Davis worse IN THIS SCHEME? Flat out, this scheme requires the receivers to catch, RAC, and block. Same as the rest of the skill guys. The guys this year are CLEARLY a better fit than the guys last year, regardless of your arbitrary metrics about who is better. All it takes is two eyes to see it. Everyone talks about how much better Josh looks, like he took some magic potion this offseason...maybe he just has a better team??? Analogy: A Ferrari is better than a RAM 1500...unless you need to tow something.

So true... But just for fun, lets just try and pin him down... Badol - Ignoring the small sample size for the moment, the fact that the Bills are the top scoring team in the NFL, 3-0, and have very low yardage output from their receivers compared to both the league and their own team last season are all true. So, that leads us two one of only two possible conclusions, as far as I can tell. Either: A) Yardage is an important indicator of WR quality/performance, and the Bills are succeeding IN SPITE of their WR...which also suggests that maybe top-flight WR isn't critical for a good offense? or B) Top flight WR are important to a good offense, and the bills have a good offense...which logically means their WR are good (or at least a good fit) and yardage totals maybe aren't the best barometer of success because they are at least partially dependent on targets.

Here is my predictions…looking pretty realistic IMO…just sayin

That’s not actually what I said, but it’s fine. What I actually said was, why can’t Curtis Samuel play the Diggs role of flanker in this offense? They’re similar athletes from a size and skill perspective. When I predicted production, I projected him for like 90 targets and 700 yards. What I didn’t know at the time was how different the offense would look and how many personnel groupings they would run out there…my assumptions were based on last year and last years usage rates when the bottom half of the depth chart was trash. And Badol, I DID project targets and yards based on 550 attempts and previous year ypt. So far, it looks pretty right…Shakir with around 1k yards, Kincaid around 8-900 and everyone else between like 2-700. If they throw less than 550 times, obviously those numbers drop proportionally…more they go up. But it had Josh around 4300 yards, which is right around 8.2 ypa. He’s at 8.8. Edit: Looks like I actually projected Samuel for 80 targets and 500 yards.

You keep missing the point. Counting stats like yards are for losers. Bills might be 14th in receiving yards, but they’re also 29th in attempts, 1st in touchdowns and second in receiving touchdowns. In other words, they’re extremely efficient. Josh’s yards per attempt this season is 8.8, and it’s being drug DOWN by the Miami game where he clearly wasn’t trying to or needing to make plays. Last season, Only 4/17 games were better (none of them were the first three) and most weren’t even close. you might argue they are doing all that in spite of the receivers, but all the other position groups and the oc are the same as last year for the most part…it’s not all the receivers, but clearly they are playing a part in the success. individual stats down, team stats up. Sounds like exactly what the “positive” crowd was predicting.