Zerovoltz

I alluded to this in an earlier post. The game is QB driven. Your roster can be outstanding and it better have a generational defensive group if you have a pedestrian QB...otherwise, you need a QB. For every NFL franchise, the smartest thing to do would be to draft, sign, whatever until you find a guy who can play it at a high level. .....to the guy who pointed out most QB's flop....Yes...the vast majority of them do...wich is another reason why you draft, sign, scout the CFL. You never know where you might find one....but based on numbers if you look it up and do some math...most of the guys who have ultimately been "great" (super bowl winners or runners up) were generally drafted in the first round. A very rare few were drafted in rounds 2-4 (Brees, Montana etc) NONE ever in round 5, 1 in round six (Brady, the flukish late rounder turned hall of fame good) and a couple 7th round or later or undrafted (Brad Johnson, Curt Warner) If you just did the percentages of ALL QB drafted outside round 1, it was like 1% who ever made it to a super bowl. Round 1, something in the neighborhood of 30% had made it. that's still a 70% fail rate if the measurement is super bowls...and for outside round 1, 99% chance your guy probably really is the turd his draft profile said he was.

Another way to look at this as a glass half full for Bufallo at least would be that at least you also passed on Watson. (go watch his pre season games. WATSON is the one read guy who was propped up by the talent around him and the simple scheme he played in......and it's obvious when you watch him stare down his target, not look anywhere else, then bail out. In the case where the target is open, the pass is usually not accurate. In the case where he bails and looks downfield, the throw is not accurate, and in the case where he just runs...he does have some wheels..but that isn't a winning combo in the NFL) This is from the Texans war room when they were about to pick Watson...you can see that Either Rick Smith was guilty of letting the fart in there, or his coaches and staff were not stoked about the pick.

Here is the thing about us in KC. Since 1989, when Marty Schottenhiemer arrived, the team has had the philosophy building as good a roster as possible and put a QB in place whose job it is not to mess things up and "manage" the game. Win the turnover and field position battle and wait for the other team to make mistakes. This has proven to be a GREAT formula for regular season success. Seriously, we went 13-3 with STEVE BONO as our QB. Hell, almost everyone we have had here for the better parts of the last 30 years have been "winners". Guys whose QBR, etc wouldn't lead you to believe they should be. The problem with this is that when you go to the playoffs, and you are playing teams who HAVE good/great QB's and your whole philosophy is to wait for them to make a mistake...you don't win in the playoffs. The list of QB's Kansas City has lost to in playoff games could fill a whole wing of the Hall of Fame. Marino, Manning, Big Ben, Brady, Elway, JIM KELLY, Since 93 when we lost to the Bills, the ONLY playoff win the Chiefs have had, came against.........Brian Hoyer. You may look at us whiners in KC and laugh at us because from the outside you see us here going 11-5 or so most years with Alex Smith and it would seem we are taking it for granted. We aren't. We've seen this movie before when it starred Steve DeBerg and Steve Bono, and Elvis Grbac and Matt Cassel etc etc etc. With the collective bargaining agreement being what it is now, it does not cost you 5 years and millions of dollars if you miss on a guy. With the rules now so heavily favoring the passing game, it would be absolutely optimal draft strategy to draft a QB in round 1 every year until you found 1 that was "the man". The league is such that you aren't a real contender unless you have a bonifide QB....OR you have a generationally good defense. Not a top 2-5 defense..but a no.1 that is the best of it's era.

....Mahomes.....(yes I am being a total troll.)

....Of course he makes some ugly throws that he shouldn't make. Almost every QB who is lacking experience does. As I had said before. Manning's rookie year was ugly. Elway's rookie year was ugly. ...and for those of you in the unfounded "sit and learn" camp....Aaron Rodgers, having sat idle for 3 years behind Favre, had a crappy stat line his first year that resembles almost every other QB playing for the first time. Lastly, having been drafted by the great John Elway, and having played behind Peyton Manning, we have Brock Oswieler. He sucks. He was always going to suck because that is who he is. More experience might cause a bit of improvment, but his talent is what it is. (and that goes for Paxton Lynch while on the Broncos. He sucks, he's going to suck, he will always suck.) After all, Simien had less pedigree and less time "siting and learning" than they have had and they can't beat him out. I can't stress it enough, Mahomes can do things right now only a few guys can do...he is going to have a sucky time his first 10-16 NFL starts...as most QB's good and bad do. Once the light turns on, he is going to be a generational player. Lastly, of course they are starting Smith to begin the season. As much as I think they should start Mahomes, in reality, I don't expect this to be a good year for KC no matter who starts...front office shake ups, QB controversies and a couple of old guys on D....on a D that isn't that good, but benefitted greatly from defensive scores and turnovers....eh...So why not let Alex start and when it looks crappy at 3-6 or whatever, you scapegoat Alex for the entire mess and you start the Mahomes era with him taking his lumps in games that aren't going to matter for a team in transistion.......and so you'll have missed on a generational QB....but you' re going to get that high draft pick.

Yes, it is. No one can dispute this fact. Many of us are excited because we think THAT is coachable. We think those things can and will improve over time, whereas, you can either make the incredible plays that he CAN AND DOES make, or you can't. There isn't a coach or system etc that does that....and it is this that we are so excited about. Again...you don't need a number to quantify this...you can SEE this (and I love numbers, but there isn't a number for this)

A few of you guys really understand this...the guy making the point about just drafting the best QB available in round 1 every year would have netted you guys (the Bills) a great QB and all you would have had to sacrifice were some decent position players no outside of Buffalo even know. Many of the rest of you are still missing the point off how to watch pre season football. Myself and other KC fans understand that preseason is a time of vanilla schemes and 2nd and 3rd string players playing. We get all that. We also aren't delusional and fail to acknowledge Mahomes makes some throws that really make you scratch your head. We get it. But think of it like this. If this was Peyton Manning, and KC had just traded up to 10 with Buffalo and we had been watching Peyton Manning in these preseason games make some really incredible, special, RARE talent uncoachable amazing throws and plays....and we also watched him make some really questionable dumb rookie throws....do you think most of us would be able to recognize his special talents? Or would all of us, KC and Bills fans, be sitting here saying....oh well, it's pre season, he's playing against 2's and 3's....and look at those questionable throws he made on this and that play.? ....what I am saying is Mahomes has distinct, instantly recognizable special abilities....I can't argue it with measurable stats....until we get to see more. As someone who has watched decades of game manager, mediocre, low yards per attempt, garbage, all I can say is, he's different, and you can SEE it. to answer another question about what KC fans want...it's 50/50 right now. The argument for Smith is that he "wins". The argument against is that while clearly we can't say with certainty what we have in Mahomes, we do know that Smith "wins" because the good talent on the rest of the roster brings him along for the ride as long as he doesn't screw it up. Alex Smith DOES NOT elevate the roster around him to another level. We think that unless we had a generational defense like the 2000 Ravens or 2015 Broncos, Alex Smith can't win a super bowl. So yes, there is a major QB controversy in KC right now.

If you are measuring anyones preseason performance by looking at a stat line or scoreboard, you don't understand pre season football. Ignore the stat line. It's the throws the guy is making....and you mention a game plan....if another teams game plan is to give the guy confusing looks and put him under presure...that's happend plenty in preseason...watch the film. The man has RARE physical gifts. He does things you can't coach people to do....the bad things he does are the same bad things a rookie Peyton Manning did or a rookie Big Ben did....those things CAN be coached...watch the film. You will instantly see the guy isn't a ryan leaf preseason statline machine...that isn't what this is about. .the film speaks for itself. You will look back at this moment Bills fans and realize that the trade will have been a major error.

If my choice is a guy who has demonstrated in college and preseason, that he can make incredible plays with his talent and physical gifts, and I have to live with a some interceptions here and there....I am TAKING that guy. Even Alex Smith throws a bad pick from time to time...they all do every now and then.....what they all can't do is what Mahomes does....give me the guy with the special talent and I will live with his mistakes. QB TALENT....elite thread the ball in there when it counts, that is HARD to find......and I don't just mean a strong arm..Kyle Boler had that. Jim Druckenmiller had that...JaMarcus Russel had that....none of them could do what Mahomes can.....enjoy your draft pick, I will take the guy who COULD be great vs a draft pick I don't know anything about and also over someone like A Smith, who we know at this point is a guy who can dump it off like no one has ever seen.

I didn't make myself clear enough in my earlier post...I am not raving about Mahomes "escapability". Alex Smith is pretty good at that part of the quarterback position.....what is impressive about the play I am referring to isn't Mahmomes running around....plenty of QB's can run around...it's the accurate zing of a throw, with a guy all over him, across his body, into a tight space to a moving target. Where they second stringers? yes they were....that doesn't change the fact that the pass rusher was immedeatly on Mahomes...and that his target (a third string TE) was basically blanketed by 2 guys...and he makes that play....he makes that elite NFL throw...it was third down, they ended the drive a play or two later with a TD.....there isn't a STAT for this.....but this kind of thing is exactly one of those things that separate a very good numbers passer like Matt Stafford from a great QB like Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers....it's that play, that Mahomes made with his ARM...to keep a drive going. Most QB can't make that throw in that situation..the drive ends..and most teams end up with 3....Alex Smith can't make that throw...he can run and get away to avoid the sack right there just as Mahmomes did, but Alex chucks that pass to the sideline and let's the kicking team come on for the points. .....The Chiefs have won a million regular season games because they have had QB's who on third down, under pressure...don't have the tools to make that play....they have been wisely coached not to even try it....throw out of bounds...kick the filed goal or punt...live another day...let the defense keep us in it...win the turnover battle..that formula has won the Chiefs a ton of regular season games and almost ZERO playoff games because the other teams QB isn't throwing pics...he's making that play on 3rd and 3 when he has pressure...and his man is covered...and he gets that ball in in impossible spot....Mahomes has THAT talent. You can't teach it....it isn't a matter of his footwork. I'll even agree that there is a graveyard full of guys with exceptional arms that never made it...it's a fair point....I would just say, on draft day when they took Mahomes over Watson there were many sources in both KC and Houston that said Mahomes excelled at picking up all the stuff they threw at him in the classroom while Watson struggled with it.....If that is the case...and Mahomes is a good study, to go along with his talent....You guys will have missed....(and obviously vice versa if he fails) .....and having seen a whole slew of "game managers" come in here since 1989 DeBerg, Krieg, Bono, Grbac, Cassel, Smith etc...What I am seeing with my own eyes...is that Mahomes is not like any of those guys. ......again...FULL DISCLOSIRE.....I am a KC fan......so call me a homer....I have HATED what my team has done at QB since I can remember...I have argued up and down that all we've ever had are guys who are really really good at not screwing things up...they are safe..they check down...they don't take a sack on 3rd down to maintain good field position......you beat a lot of bad teams with lesser QB's that way...you don't win in the playoffs waiting on Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and John Elway and Jim Kelly, and Dan Marino and Ben Rothlisberger to make more mistakes than Dave Krieg or Steve Bono. Mahomes is not those guys...he's different and he's better...and you can see it after 2 preseason games. t

1. I am a Chiefs fan. 2. It is pre season. Here is the thing about Mahomes that stands out in the games, in the practices, etc. if you watch the pass he makes on third down scrambling way back and around the side for a completion to convert and keep the Drive going...it's that play that only a handful of guys can make in the NFL. Mahomes makes THAT play because he can. It's the difference between settling for 3 or going on to score 7. Alex Smith can not, and does not make that throw. We've seen smith in that situation 100 times. That drive ends in a field goal attempt 100/100 times because that is a play Smith can't make. It is one Aaron Rodgers can. In a league where most games are decided by less than 7, this is exactly the kind of thing that makes the difference you can't find on a stat sheet. The box score calls that a completed pass for 5 yards on 3rd and 2. It doesn't say only a few guys in the league could have made the play and the drive ended in 7 instead of 3. Big numbers are put up by the Staffords and the Rivers types all the time. It's a passing league. You guys are going to regret missing out on him.