Zerovoltz

As a Chiefs fan, the most exciting draft event I have ever seen was last years trade up to 10 so we could draft Mahomes. ....Even before we knew it was Mahomes, it was pretty well understood that as soon as that trade was made they'd gone up there for Watson or Mahomes. It was incredible knowing that they had A) Identified "the man" and B) they actually went and did what it took to go get him. I hope that you all have a similar draft day experience this year...especially since it has been at least somewhat alluded to that by punting on QB last year, the Bills had turned their eyes to this QB draft class and had aquired ammo for it.

I think sometimes people get caught up in stats a little too much...and I love stats and trying to find ways to quantify things. ....As someone who has carefully observed Alex Smith for 5 seasons, if all we went off of were Alex Smiths stats, then you would think KC had a top 5 QB...and even this year, using only stats, you could make a top 3 argument. Football is still a game that the metrics have trouble capturing the whole package. Smith is a perfect example of this. His completion pct is incredibly high. He also rarely turns the ball over. He had some great "deep ball" stats this year as well. Going off of all this, one would wonder why in the world KC would ever want to move on from him? The answer is, you have to actually watch the games to see the story the stats aren't telling you. In the case of Smith, his completion pct is high because he A)opts to throw a lot of short, open, easy passes. B) He doesn't throw the 50/50 ball. EVER. if he does go downfield, it's because he does see the wide open target and gets it there. C) he will not risk a turnover to make a play. KC has been an AWFUL DREADFUL 3rd down team for years. Smith will run, or check down and throw short on 3rd and 8. No INT. No sack. No turnover. Stat sheet shows complete pass. Stat sheet doesn't account for the fact you needed Smith to make something happen to extend a drive etc. There is also no stat for pocket presence. Smith doesn't have good pocket presence. To the untrained eye, he appears to be "extending the play" but 7 out of 10 times, he has abandoned a perfectly good NFL pocket to go running, often at the expense of a more positive outcome if he stood in and found the open man. ....Going back to Smiths deep ball stats this year....if you look at the plays, he literally felt Tyreek Hill was open enough and that he could throw it out there (Smith has tendancy to overthrow when he goes deep to avoid the pick) so far and Hill could still get it...that Smith had some success on these this year. ....again, because they were wide open. (you could say he at least hit the guy who was open) ....but you would pull your hair out watching games and realize for every one of these he hit...he NEVER SAW the other 3 wide open shots becaue of the poor pocket presece. My whole point here is that Smiths stat sheet doesn't paint the whole picture and neither does Cousins. Someone here said they went back and watched Cousins actually play football games....I highly recommend that before making a call on what you think of Cousins (or Smith, or Rosen, Darnold, etc) is that you go watch games...pay attention to the situation, do they stand in a pocket and read the field? Do they take a chance and make a play when you need a play or do they play it safe? Can they "feel" the pocket? Do they check down at the correct time? How open are their targets? Does the play inflate the QB's stats (60 yard screen pass) vs ball in the air yards?

We (KC) signed him to a one year "prove it" contract. Given how awful the CB's opposite Peters have been....probably worth a shot since he didn't cost much.

....All this speculation is further ammo for the idea that the Bills should be all in on Kirk Cousins. Sitting there at 21&22, having to speculate on A) that you can find a trading partner and B) that the guy you have identified will be there to trade up for, is a whole lot of uncertainty to be betting on come draft day. All Cousins costs is money, and his contract will seem steep at first, but it will fall right in line with the leauge in short order. He has proven to be able to produce with a sub par roster and broken O-line. If I were the Bills, he would be option one, then use the draft capital to start building with others and their cheap contracts. For what it's worth, I do think Cleveland is going to win the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes. Again, all he costs is money.

Off Season - Cousins ends up with the Browns. They ultimately throw even more money at him than anyone though possible signing 5 years at 32 millions per. Dorsey sees this QB class and knowing he has so much cap room, opts to go Shaquon Barkley 1/1, trading his 4th overall to the Cardinals. The Bills don't find a trading partner to move up, and end up drafting Mason Rudolph in round 1. LeVeon Bell re signs with the Steelers. Nick Foles remains on the Eagles roster. The Indianapolis Colts sign Sam Bradford as either the fill in while Luck comes back...or just flat out as Lucks replacement if he can't come back. They draft Nick Chubb, thus denying the Bills a potential trading partner. The Denver Broncos, stunned hat having missed out on Cousins, show interest in.........Tyrod Taylor. Elway, having swung and missed on Lynch, can't go back and draft another big tall QB again....he has a coach on the hot seat...he has a 1st round QB on the roster that he selected....he gets the veteran Taylor to compete for the job with lynch and they stumble into the 2018 season having not had the off season they were hoping to have. Minnesota resigns Case Keenum AND Teddy Bridgwater. Kansas City signs EJ Gaines. 2018 Season the Patriots and Tom Brady get very old in a big hurry. Don't win the division, miss playoffs. Miami with a healthy Tannehill, wins division with 9-7 record. Jets with New QB Baker Mayfield, go 8-8 and have a bright future to look forward to. Bills struggle to go 5-11...everyone is disappointed, but talk about the great non QB draft picks the team has, and looking forward to drafting more very good NON Qb's in the 2019 draft. The Eagles remain a force to be reckoned with. The Redskins quickly learn that Alex Smith can't elevate garbage talent around him like Kirk Cousins could...they go 6-10 and regret mishandling the cousins situation even more. Eli Manning throws a bunch of picks and is replaced at some point by Rosen. He looks good, the future is bright in NYC. Dallas makes the wild card as strong contender with their RB being back on the squad all season. The Cowboys resign demarcus lawrence. Dez Bryant takes a pay cut and stays. Cleveland, with new QB Kirk Cousins, go 8-8....Cleveland misses the playoffs but fans in Cleveland are stoked. Pittsburg grinds out another division title at 10-6...ben starting to feel his age, Bell still strong....Cincinnatti goes 4-12. Baltimore goes 5-11. joe Flacco finishes his last season for the ravens. Green Bay, with a healthy Rodgers, wins the division going 11-5. Chicago surprises some folks going 9-7 with an improving Mitch Trubisky. Detroit remains lost with Matt Patricia going 5-11 and the Vikings suffer a regression with Keenum reverting to the mean and the team suffering a playoff hangover in general. Indianapolis ends up losing Luck for the year and another surgery...probably ending his career. He and Bert Jones share beers and cry about what could have been. The colts go 3-13. Jacksonville wins the division with a surprisingly improved Bortles leading the way. Houston, with a healthy Watson, disappoints as the defense now suddenly sucks..they go 8-8. The Titans, who do nothing in the offseason besides change uniforms, suck badly. the team internally believe Mariotta isn't the man for the QB job. The Seahawks flame out entirely as Carroll retires at seasons end. They go to rebuild mode. The Rams win the division with a progressing Goff and more pieces added to the offense. Arizona struggles with whoever their new QB is. The Niners make the wild card with Jimmy G. Kansas City goes 13-3, clinches homefield advantage in the AFC, win their two home playoff games and prepare to face the Eagles in the Super Bowl. Denver implodes with Tyrod Taylor starting most of the games as Paxton Lynch can't wrestle the job away from him. Elway resigns, they go into rebuild mode. Chucky comes back and turns David Carr into a respectable QB, but the team has issues and can only muster an 8-8 record. The Chargers get one last good push from Philip Rivers and make the playoffs. New Orleans re signs Brees...they win the division. Atlanta suffers playoff hangover, Julio Jones slows down, the whole team slows down...they miss playoffs. Carolina has an off year....miss playoffs. Tampa has another bad season....internally they decide Jameis Winston isn't the man. Chiefs win super bowl....beginning the next NFL dynasty, this being the 1st of 4 in the next 8-10 years.

Frankly, Cousins should be OPTION 1 for any team needing a QB this off season, including the Bills. He costs anyone that signs him only money, not draft picks. He is a known quantity. He has shown he can produce with less than optimal talent around him. That's worth the contract. If you try your best and miss on Cousins, then you look at your other options, including the draft. The best thing the Bills could do this off season, is sign Cousins. You can't possibly say right now that Cousins in your hand, is worse than the unkown of going to draft day wondering who will be picked where, if your guy will be gone, if you can work a deal with a willing partner if he is there, and then if you get your guy, if he will actually turn out good. In this unusual year when a Cousins is actaully on the market..you get Cousins if at all possible.

I don't have a dog in this fight but, IF I was in charge and was sitting with pick 21 and 22, Tyrod Taylor under contract, and Kirk Cousins available for only money, you almost have to do what it takes to sign Cousins don't you? You can't possible know in mid March, how the draft will unfold, and you don't know what QB will be available, or if you'd even be able to find a willing trade partner. Cousins is a known quantity. He will cost you 28-30 million, but it's not absurd when viewed from the perspective that QB raises have stayed within the rising cap pretty much....his contract will be high the day he signs it and mid level the day he finishes it. You'd have to ask yourself if you believe what you MIGHT get on draft day, will be better than Cousins is now and in the future.....how can anyone say right now, that is the case? You can't. ....that's why you make the effort for Cousins and only resort to the draft and all that manuevering, scouting, and hoping events fall your way ONLY if you made your best effort to get Cousins and he goes elsewhere.

Ummm....sure HOF players come from all rounds or undrafted...but just like QB's....your percentages of hitting a hall of famer or franchise QB go way up the higher the draft selection. http://www.profootballhof.com/heroes-of-the-game/hall-of-famers-by-draft-round/

I am going purely off that picture. Does that look like a group of folks that are excited about trading up to get Watson? I am sure the sources close to the team all say it was Watson from the beginning....what else would they say after drafting him? Watson has looked really good so far. I am sure they are delighted to have him, as are the Saints to have Lattimore and the Bills to have White. The big loser in all this appears to be the Cleveland Browns....shocking. Second...I really am a guy from Kansas City (who now lives in Ft. Worth, TX) and joined the board to observe over time, how the Bills fanbase sees the trade. I do think it is a bonus that you think I am another guy who apparently isn't here anymore, that had been a big Mahomes supporter. Third. In the short time I have been on this board, I have mentioned this in another thread somewhere, but I really enjoy just the general football talk here, or even just reading about what you all have to say about your team. I joined a Browns board for the same reason, and I often go read Broncos boards and now with smith traded to Washington, I cruise some redskins sites. This place has the best and most inteligent conversations....that includes the Chiefs groups I am a part of. (Kansas City fans are very homerish and don't take well to constructive criticism of the home town team and players) Glad to be here...hope to be here for a good long while if you all can put up with me interjecting here and there.

...yes, I am trolling... This is part of why we thank you so much for the trade. most of us KC fans think we are about to get high end QB play for 2-3% of our cap space for the next 3 seasons. Patrick Mahomes Current Contract Year Age Base Salary (Guaranteed) Bonuses Cap Number Cap % Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension Prorated Roster Workout Other Total $2,400,000 $10,086,152 $3,939,810 $0 $0 $16,425,962 2017 22 $465,000 $465,000 $2,521,538 $0 $0 $0 $2,986,538 1.8% 2018 23 $555,000 $1,211,635 $2,521,538 $656,635 $0 $0 $3,733,173 2.1% $13,439,424 ($9,706,251) 2019 24 $645,000 $1,958,270 $2,521,538 $1,313,270 $0 $0 $4,479,808 2.4% $9,706,251 ($5,226,443) 2020 25 $735,000 $2,704,905 $2,521,538 $1,969,905 $0 $0 $5,226,443 2.6% $5,226,443 $0 Embed This Contract <iframe src="https://overthecap.com/contract-embed/5594/" width="600" height="343" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe>

This is the Houston war room when they picked Watson.....lots of reports Mahomes was their guy and that they HAD no choice but to go up and get Watson (reported the owner told them to make it happen) Does anyone besides GM Rick Smith look happy about getting Watson there? That's a war room that is disappointed that Mahomes got sniped in front of them. (On a side note, professional golfer Justin Speith, was a guest in the New Orleans war room, and he flat out said Mahomes was the Saints pick at 11 if he was there)

Considering his injury history and his price tag, I doubt anyone would trade for him, and considering all the dead money involved with cutting him, I don't see us (KC) cutting him. What most folks don't realize about Houston in the 2017 season, was that due to injuries to Eric Berry, lack of LB depth and speed, and really poor CB play opposite Marcus Peters, we literally had Houston drop into coverage almost every play. Houston is a very good all around player, but he isn't being paid all that money to be a coverage LB....Many fans were very unhappy about how he was utilized this season. I would expect he will remain a Chief and will be once again utilized as what he does best, wich is rush the passer. IF he doesn't do well in 2018, they will look to part ways, and next year, they can absorb that cap hit easier if need be.

Now seems like a great time to mention Patrick Mahomes will cost an average of 4 million per season through 2020 and has the fifth year option available to the team in 2021.

I have not. I am a member of a couple of facebook groups for my Chiefs posting activities....I should probalby get on a board so that I can point back at some of what I post more easily. Should I be on that board?

That trade is viewed as "good" so far. Ragland of course was still coming of the injury when he got here (to KC) but got better as season progressed. Had some moments where he flashed, and we could see the potential. We anticipate that he will take a step forward in 2018. It would be a dissapointment if the Ragland we saw this year, is the same one all of next year. We can see why he was a high draft pick as he is noticably faster then what we (KC) had on the field with him....2018 makes or breaks the trade. Liked what we saw..need to see more.

One stop shop for everyone's one the record QB projections. (Yes, I am a CHIEFS fan, but we got our QB last year, and no one in KC wants to speculate on this fun stuff) Josh Allen - BUST. This to me, is the guy who fits all the prototypes and tools and measurables everyone thinks is important, except the part that matters, wich is he isn't accurate. He didn't demostrate in college that he is progressively getting more accurate. Some old school GM's are going to say "wow, look at this big tall kid with the big arm" and think that equates to being a franchise QB. It's not 1977 anymore. You can't win in the NFL with a sub 60% completion percentage and throw 22 picks with 19 INTS. That's what Allen will be. Darnold - HIT. Doesn't have the arm that Mahomes has, but I've seen enough film of him to see he does have an understanding of using his eyes and head to move safeties and identify the target downfiled and "throw him open". I do think he will need some seasoning and will look like garbage his first 16 or so games starting in the NFL. Rosen - MISS. I think the guy has talent, but I put alot into the talk he's not in it for the love of the game, and he is injury prone. Not loving the game and being injury prone means you aren't going all out all the time. He is Jay Cutler. He will alienate too many people but will make some really good plays when he is healthy and trying....I don't see him as a winner. He will frustrate the coaches and fans wherever he ends up...too talented to give up on...too aloof and injured to ever really get you where you need to go. Mayfield - HIT. Johnny Football with all the swagger and none of the drugs. His leadership and high energy are contagious...he'll get his teamates to enthusiastically join in trying to win. The fans will love him and he'll help sell tickets and jerseys. Also, tottally underated quality about him..he is SEASONED. He's started a ton of games in college...that does matter. Reps help. He has progressed every season...completed 71% of passes two years in a row...low INTs. makes plays. So what he is 6'1. In this class, he is my no.1 guy. Lamar Jackson - BUST. While he did progress each year, he's still not a very accurate thrower. He doesn't "win" in the pocket. He's a special COLLEGE player...what a gifted athlete!......but that's it...to me...great athlete..I do not see great NFL QB. This is going to be the guy that starts tumbling down the draft board. My thoughts on some other notables: Mason Rudolph. - Will be better than Josh Allen. I think you put him behind a good line and give him some deep targets....like old school raiders bombs away attack and you have something. Luke Falk. Career backup. Accurate thrower. Not a strong NFL arm. benefited from system he played in. Best to play on team that emphasizes short passing game. I have not seen enough film on any others to make any kind of evaluation...I've heard some like the kid from Virginia...I haven't seen him...can't say. ***Just my worthless KC two cents here*** If I were the Bills, If I could go up for Mayfield or Darnold, I would totally go all in. If I sat at 21 and Rosen fell to me (he won't) I'd do it. Lamar Jackson might fall that far...I'd pass or trade out. If I have missed out on Mayfiled or Darnold, I make sure I don't miss Rudolph, even if I have to use 22 to do it. .....Also.....If I can make the numbers work, and I am sure I can't get Darnold or Mayfield on drat day, I DO, make the push for Cousins. He's proven he can put up numbers with less than optimal talent around him. that matters and it's worth paying for.

No.....it doesn't. It means the Redskins fanbase is about to be bewildered by having a QB who somehow has a good stat sheet, and you can't quite put your finger on the problem for a while. The more observant fans eventually figure out that Smith's stats are sparkling because he is super SAFE with the football and simply will not throw a 50/50 ball to anyone at anytime. All the 3 yard completions and 3 yard runs on 3rd and 8 look like postive plays in a box score, and in your passer rating, but in reality, these are drive killers, momentum killers. You start to see Smith runs from ghosts and the ghosts get scarier as the game gets into more critical stages. The man refuses to let you down by taking a bad sack or a making an awful turnover in the clutch.....and by deliberatly making this effort, he dooms you to a slow death, unwilling to take the slightest chance to make the play you need when you need it. Best of luck to them. Their fan base will divide into the "Alex Smith is great, look at his STATS" camp, and "Alex has flaws that kill us, and don't show up on a stat sheet" camp. He is a curse. Too good to bench, not good enough to get you over the hump. Paid to elevate the roster around him, but needs others around to elevate him. Washington will be 6-10 to 8-8 or so.

Something to consider going forward - If you are a team that doesn't have the "franchise" QB....and getting one of them costs a very lopsided value against your cap vs. the other 52 on your roster, it will not be long now at all, in this QB market, that some of the shrewder teams in the "have not" QB category, will revert to old school ground and pound. Most teams place a premium on pass rushers and DB who have cover skills. A team with no QB could counter the trend with big road graders on the O-line. Get a couple or RB or even three horses. Get some WR who will block, then run at these defenses with undersized defenders and bunches of DB's. The era of the great middle linebackers is long gone and such a team could potentially roll todays defenses into the ground if they built such a team....you get yourself a cheap QB who can run and throw playaction passes, and you could compete without participating in the absurd QB market. You only pay that QB the lopsided contract if he is in fact Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers and you can throw 52 other guys on the field with him that he elevates to being very good every year no matter who they are. In such a market, you could get the best blocking WR's best blocking TE's, revive the FB position and get the best one of those, and your QB would be so much less money because you wouldn't need him to be the focus. Won't surprise me to see two or three teams who don't have a stud try and take advantage of this skewed market in such a way.

Your point about the QB's and Mahomes is a valid one I hadn't fully considered before. I suppose I should have said that Cleveland doesn't see any of them as day 1 starters, and that Washington didn't see any of them, or at least any they could expect to get at 13 or trade up for, to be the long term answer. With Denver in hot pursuit now of Cousins, they are bowing out at 5....I suppose other than Trubisky, who did start day 1, you could say the same for Mahomes, Watson etc...I'm making more of it I guess than there is. Ried will absolutely get another year...he's under contract for something like 5 more years. There will be a good number of pissed off fans if we miss the playoffs...Alex wasn't universally hated here....very large number who would rather KNOW you can go 10-6 again instead of trying to develope the QB.

The fanbase here is probalby about 70/30 in favor of Mahomes. There are some skeptics who do not think we will be competative in 2018, but that is the minority. Most, myself included, believe that Mahomes is ready, he has some weapons to utilize and the team now has a little flexibility having begun to remedy the cap issue we had and adding Fuller. Even those of us who are optimisitc that we can win now, realize that first time starting QB in the NFL often struggle as opposed to winning right out of the gate. Manning was awful his first 16 games, Elway was awful his first 16 games...Dan Marino is the exception, not the rule. We get that. It is PROBABLE that 2018 will be disappointing in the short term. I have no numbers to point to that I could back this up with, but having watched the parage of mediocre OK QB's come through here (KC) since 1986 (when I was old enough to pay attention) I can tell you that Mahomes is going to be special. He isn't Jay Cutler, he isn't Kyle Boller. I wish I could throw up some stats or something to make my point, but all I can say is that I can SEE it. But to answer the question....50/50, the fanbase will tolerate one year of being less than competive if it means Mahomes becomes that 15 year guy who has us as a legitamate threat every season to win the SB. We have been begging for this for so long...that's why the trade up last year was so exciting to us....many of us finally think the Chiefs are TRYING to win the super bowl instead of trying to win 10 games and keep the seats and 80 dollar per car parking lot full. So yes, in that case it would be well worth the cost. Wouldn't you trade a bad year in exchange for 15 seasons of knowing you'll always have a chance becasue you start each season with a legit QB? Also....I've seen some posts saying KC has a decent/good O'line. ....eh...not really. Our LG position has been a revolving door of nobodies. RT is solid. LT Eric Fisher, the 1/1 of the 2013 Draft (a bad draft year overall) finally....FINALY had a season where I would grade him as ADEQUATE. ....and he's under contract for 4 more years..hope he takes another step....anyhow, the line is smallish and finesse. They are ok at pass blocking and decent at pulling and trapping...but AWFUL trying to get a push in short yardage. Lastly, saw some other posts here about cleveland offering a 2 and some people thinking that it was a better offer than what we got...NO...not even close. Getting a CB, who would be a 1st round pick if drafted this year, under contract for less than 1 million per for 2 seasons is BETTER THAN a 1st round pick. You already know he won't bust, you already have him signed to a cheap contract. and you already have seen him succeed and be ascending in the NFL. That is WAY better than an unknown quantity in round 1 that will cost more. ...and one final note...If Denver gets cousins....that will be two teams...Washington at 13 and Denver at 5, basically looking at this QB class and saying...No thanks. If Cleveland was deep in trying to get Smith, that means they see NONE of these QB's as a day one starter....that's fine, but just more proof this class is a crap shoot with a bunch of guys who each have some sort of flaw.

Mr. Happy Days - I am well aware of the stats you have posted. I am not here to tell you Alex Smith is hot garbage...he isn't. He is pretty good. He will protect a football like it's his first born child and take very good care of it. You aren't going to lose a game because Alex Smith makes a bad turnover at a bad time. ....Now, that said, if you look at Smiths QBR, Passer rating or whatever measurable metrics you like...they all go down from the first quarter, on. His measurables in the red zone are not as stellar as his overall metrics...BUT....that aside...where Alex Smith kills you, are things that stats don't tell you...things you can't read in a box score. His pocket presence is AWFUL. Smith has very very happy feet and will abandon good NFL pockets, take his eyes off of targets breaking open, run and occasionly makes some decent yardage, but most often he takes something and makes it nothing.....especially on third down. If you watch it live, you'd say, wow, look at Smith extend the play! Look at Smith go off schedule here and improvise! He's not. When he stays in a pocket, keeps his eyes downfield, goes over his targets, sets up, and throws..Alex Smith delivers a beautiful NFL pass....unfortunately, he doesn't do this often enough, and the higher the stakes are, the safer he is with the ball....It works well most of the time....but when it counts most, Smith and his sparkling stat sheet don't show up. ....And look, the thing is, He does NOT elevate the roster around him..THEY elevate him.

This is a good breakdown of what we see, what we saw all preseason and what the players and other observers say they see in practice....he's ready and he's going to be awesome.

NFL Passer rating is a rediculously outmoded and outdated stat. in 2000, Brian Greise was no.1 and Brett Favre was something like 21st. If you look at the formula for NFL passer rating it is HEAVILY skewed toward completion percentage and interceptions. Smith completes a TON of very high percentage short passes....and he will not throw a ball with a reciever that has even a defender nearby. He is VERY VERY safe....passer rating rewards Smith for completing a three yard pass on 3rd and 8, and it doens't penelize him on 3rd and 8 when he jitters out of a clean pocket for a 2 yard gain...he didn't take a sack, he didn't throw a pick, he didn't have an incomplete pass...NFL passer rating rewards that. So, yes, Smith was the "highest rated NFL passer" it's 100% true...and he earned it.

I'm totally rooting for you guys to get your QB. I was actually at the wide right super bowl rooting for the Bills.

I joined to keep track of Bills fans attitude toward the trade and Mahomes over time.....Thanks for having me. I also joined a Browns group for the same reasons (Dorsey there, they passed on every one last draft) This group here is a WAY WAY more inteligent and thoughtful group than the guys on the Cleveland boards, and franly, the KC boards I am on...lots of frustrating Madden players who don't understand the cap or real football....I hope you'll see fit to let me stick around....even as I will poke you for Mahomes here and there.