Zerovoltz

.....going to strain my forearm patting myself on the back.

This takes the Broncos out of this QB market. Here is why. Keenum is being brought in to keep the window they think they have open. (I'm not sure they really have any open window left, but whatever) Keenum is going to cost WAY TOO MUCH to be a bridge...this is to be the starter for the next 2-3 years while they still have a good WR pairing, still have Von Miller, still have Harris...they aren't completely bereft of talent. Paxton Lynch is now officially a bust, but he's still on his rookie deal, still a guy they drafted in round 1 and paid dearly for to move up...and Trevor Simien....Simien isn't very good, but he's experienced and also cheap. They aren't going QB this year....they will stay put at 5 and get one of the top 3 Non QB players in this draft....again in line with trying to win while the window is open. AND....the coaching staff are all basically working THIS SEASON to prove themselves....this is not a situation where they have a staff in place, ready to start the franchise rebuild with a new QB....this staff won't be coaching any QB they take in the draft now...they are all in with Keenum and winning to save their jobs. Elway isn't going to ask for their input on wich QB fits their system etc.

Clearly I am a Chiefs fan....but even I can't wait for the draft to see how this all plays out. I've always looked at the trade last year as a great thing for KC to get Mahomes, and I am glad you got White last year...and I hope that the extra ammo you got from the KC deal last year helps you all get "the man" this year. Buffalo has been a GREAT recent trade partner for my team. I am rooting for this to go well for you all. .....also the NFL=crack. This offseason has been entertaining as hell.

Your analogy assumes a pro bowl linebacker is equal to a pro bowl QB. that simply isn’t the case.

I should just stay away from my computer for a few days. THREE. Need a franchise Qb. Not 4 . Sorry. Man I am off kilter.

Ugh. You are right. I botched this. the advantage of the round 2 picks and later is they are not subject to the stipulation when signing an extension, that are not equal to or better than the average of the 3rd-25th salary of players at the same position, but I would contend that Giants and Colts MIGHT both be inlcined to move back just a few picks, still get a nice haul and still get a blue chip prospect.....purely speculation on my part of course. I can't dispute any of this....I would simply contend that the situation at the top involves 4 teams drafting in the first 6 picks that all have a need for a "franchise" QB. and two teams who can add some serious draft capital having only to move a few slots and still likely get the NON Qb they were going to get anyhow. ....the last 6 QB drafted in round 1 were all trade ups. And to Hapless Bills Fan....when I was talking about Blue chips in this draft, I was using an arbitrary number. i don't propose to know how many of those type prospects teams think there are. simply pointing out if you think the group of guys between pick 20-40 for example are of the same quality, trading into round 2. Again, dependant on a teams board and philosphy etc.

Not many people realized it at the time, but when the NFL went to a slotted payscale for draft choices, and that system allowed for a 5th year team option on all rookie contracts for players drafted after round 1, the value of draft choices weren't the same anymore. Teams have slowly but surely began to realize this and it's reflected in how more and more teams are doing business on draft day. Let me break down what changed, and then how that applies to the Bills situation this year. The slotting system has made it MUCH MORE APPEALING to take a chance on a QB. The mistake used to cost your franchise millions and millions of dollars, setting everything back years, costing coaches and GMs their jobs, scaring off fans from buying tickets...it was an incredibly risky proposition all the way around. Now, if you swing and miss, you have a player who isn't killing your cap or your willingness to turn around and try again to find his replacement. Given that more and more teams have come around to the reality that if you don't have a QB, you are facing a steep uphill battle to compete, and given that there are plenty of teams who need to find that guy, the market for QB's in the draft is as strong or stronger now, than it has ever been. At the same time you have these forces at work, the picks in round 1, that teams are sitting with, once the "sure things" have been drafted, are not worth nearly what they once were. Here is why. Lets say you have pick 18. Your scouts/gm etc have decided that the draft has 10-12 really good, blue chip, can't miss, start day one, plug and play guys in it. After pick 12, those guys are off the board and you pick at 18. You are drafting a guy who may have a 1st round grade, but he might be every bit as good or the same as the guy who will go at 33. (first pick of round 2) The big difference being, the guy picked at 33 will have a contract that includes the magical "5th year option". An extra year of club control, that is almost certainly going to be at a bargain rate if the player is any good. The market is now set up in such a way that the 33rd pick is considered at least equal to pick 18, 14, 22...whatever the case may be...and in many teams thinking, pick 33 is the better pick to have. Again...I can take a guy who grades well, who may or may not pan out at 18, or I can take a guy with the same grade, same expectation of success, but get him a little cheaper to start with, and again, the magical extra year of club control. Now lets apply these dynamics to this years upcoming draft. At the top, you have the Browns, who should be taking a QB at 1. (I just don't see how they don't at this point) At 2, the Giants are in great shape here to basically trade down a few spots. If Allen is on the board especially, the Broncos will move up to 2. The Giants will move back to 5. they will get a 1st in 2019, and you can be sure they will get the Broncos 2nd rounder this year. 40th Overall (8th pick in round 2) that carries that contract value I just mentioned. ....I'll get back to the Giants in a moment. With two QB off the board, the Jets will be hot on the phone to move up to 3. This could very well be Baker Mayfield. The Jets will of course be trading a 2109 1st, but also that valuable early 2nd rounder. 37th Overall. The Browns now sitting at 4 take Saqon Barkley. Everyone in Cleveland is happy for a day. Then the Giants pick at 5. Having gotten a nice haul out of Denver to move down three spots, they still get a choice of Chubb, Minkah, or that Ellis guard from ND. They still get the blue chipper. The colts, Also, are still in line for Chubb, or Minkah etc....one of the blue chips. Lets examine these circumstances cloesly.....If the Bills want to move up to 2 or 3, is their ammo of 21 and 22, and a 2019 1 (and more) really more attractive than say the Giants taking 3 steps back, a 2019 first, and an early 2nd.....with the guarantee you end up with one of the few can't miss prospects in this draft? Same with the Colts..step back a few spots, get a 2019 1st, and an early 2nd this year....and still get one of the few cant miss guys now....is that better or worse than 21, 22, and 2019 1st? That is the reality the Bills are facing. Ok...now continuing.... Pick 7, Tampa. This may well be the last spot to grab a "Can't miss" blue chip guy...either Ellis, or if the Giants took him already, then whoever the last man standing is..Chubb, Minkah. There are still 2 teams.....and certainly 1 for sure, in the QB market. ARIZONA, sitting at 15. for the sake of argument, the Bucs take the last big time blue chip, and now we are on to 8. Chicago. This will be the first spot where the can't miss guys are gone, and you also have a team that either likes Calvin Ridley here or they think they can get him or some other WR a little later. They have holes to fill and need more picks. Right here the question becomes, WHO are the QB still on the board? Is he "the man" according to your board? and Is Arizona going up to get him? Sitting at 21 and 22.....isn't quite the AMMO that it would have been 10 years ago when you look at it like this. You are also looking at a near impossible climb to 2 or 3 and after that, you are realistically looking at takign the FOURTH QB OFF THE BOARD even if you can get up to 7, or 8. That is the reality of the situation. And as if this wasn't enough to consider....Arizona can stand pat, or move up and get that 4th QB if the Bills do stay put.....and lurking in front of the Bills are......... 12. Cincinnati Bengals They can walk away from Dalton after this year when his contract no longer is a cap killer. MaCaron is gone. I don't think they will go QB, but....15. Arizona Cardinals They stay in place and grab one or trade up and grab one..but here they are in dire need of a QB.16. Baltimore Ravens They can walk on Flacco after this year and that awful contract. Ozzie Newsome is retiring after this season, so I would suspect he won't go QB, and leave that problem up to the next guy....but can't rule it out. Newsome might see it as a chance to extend his legacy by drafting the next guy.17. Los Angeles Chargers Phillip Rivers isn't getting younger...and they could draft a guy to sit and learn, so a project isn't a concern here....Could totally see Mason Rudolph. Given all of this, as a big picture, it seems UNLIKELY the Bills will emerge from this draft with their present/future QB when it's said and done.

....Uh.....IF the idea that Lamar Jacksons running plays were by design......and if he has been running a Bobby Petrino "Complex NFL offense"......then doesn't that just make his crap completion pct even more glaringly bad? And wouldn't also stand to reason that if you have a QB who can run like Lamar can....and who isn't the most adept passer, you'd probably WOULD design run plays for him...lots of them. BUST. Running backs don't play QB.......because they can't complete more than 60% of their passes too. BUST.

Just something to consider......the last 6 QB's drafted in the first round were all selected by teams who traded up to get them. Given the number of teams needing a franchise QB, and given that next years class looks awful.....draft day is going to be a frenzy of trades. Cousins signing with the Vikings will hurt the Bills. Cleveland...(it is Cleveland) should take a QB at 1. Cleveland can deal the Bills another blow if that QB is NOT Allen because Denver will then call the Giants about moving up from 5 to 2 to take him. If the QB Cleveland opted for was Rosen or Darnold, then the Jets will look to move up to 3 for Mayfield. Cleveland will then be delighted at 4 to take Barkly, Fitzpatrick, Chubb...whoever they want...the Giants at 5 could have tons of options..take Chubb, take Fitzpatrick...they could go Ellis...or trade out again...or if the QB still left is the one they covet...Darnold in this case..they might do that. Colts at 6 will still have something nice to take, then you are literally looking at Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson. With Arizona needing someone, and possibly Miami, New Orleans, Baltimore, Cincy....lurking ....none of them are that likely, but I'm thinking the top 4 are gone by pick 7. and all via trade up except Cleveland. .....The Bills are going to have to be very aggressive...there are more teams that want one of these guys than there are guys to take.

I'm going to buy that this is a smokescreen to keep Rudolph clean to pick 21 (or within trade up range) I predicted in this forum a while back that Lamar Jackson would fall out of round 1, and I continue to believe that. I could see a team that already has a running/passing QB and offense taking him in round 2 as a backup and long term developement project. Carolina would be my prediction on his destination. I simply don't think any front office is going to trust the guy and is less than stellar completion pct to be the undisputed QB of the team the moment he is drafted. Recency bias is working against the kid too....Bridgewater and his injury being a light weight narrow guy from the same schoool....I don't like Allen for his crummy accuracy either, but at least some FO is going to point at that guy and say...look at his arm! Look at his size! I think there is going to be a frenzy at the top with trades and the top 4 will be gone by pick 6. Allen, Mayfield, Rosen and Darnold. ...After that, someone that missed out up at the top is going to be lurking on Rudolph. Here is what I think at this time. Cleveland take Barkley at 1. Giants trade down with Denver. Denver takes Allen at 2. Colts trade down to 6. Jets take Mayfield at 3. Cleveland takes Rosen despite his overtures of not wanting to be there at 4. Giants can't believe their luck....Darnold is here still. They take him....they have time to work with him while Eli rides off into the sunset. Colts are happy as they go Chubb at 6. Then it's no mans land all the way to 21. Mason Rudolph and Lamar Jackson are on the board and Arizona is sitting there at 15. Tampa is on the clock at 7. This is what I believe Buffalo is going to be looking at on Draft Day.....I can totally see a scenario where the Bills have to contemplate moving up to SEVEN, to take the 5th QB off the board if they want Rudolph. Once Rudolph comes off the board, then it's all downhill for Jackson....if the Bills are still sitting there at 21, with no QB, they aren't taking Jackson either because he may well be there in round 2, or you go with the second tier...Lauletta etc. If I was the Bills and this plays out, it would make me sick.

.....I'm trolling, but ....you could have had that combo at 10 last year.....(Pat Mahomes)

Well....if he is Vick...that's worthwhile. If he's Geno Smith...not so much. I don't think he's accurate enough to win consistantly in the NFL....I would not draft him in round 1. (I have the same concern for Allen)

This is a great way to look at it. .....but it depends also on what you think of Jackson...he WOULD be the best in the class...I'm still very unsure about what I think of him....but if your front office grades him as EJ Manual...even if he is the best of the class....that isn't a class you want any part of....if he's Mike Vick, Cam Newton or something good or better than that..you'd be all over it...NOW while you can get him. I can't wait for this draft....NFL=CRACK. ....and still hoping this works out for you guys...Would love to see the trade be a "win-win" for everyone. They are the best kind of deals.

It is supposed to be Zerovoltz. I fat fingered it when I signed up

I'm actually advocating that the Bills draft one this year.....just illustrating how much more bleek 2019 looks

both of you clearly didn't read that book I just wrote...that's what I said in the post.

I've seen Drew Lock listed at No.1 on some lists....it's not an impressive list.

With the situation at this point still being so fluid, none of us really know who is going to end up where. We do know that as of today, the Bills are at 21/22, and that's all we really know. We don't know if they will be compelled to trade up, or if someone is willing to trade back, or if the guy they want, if they like one of them, will even be there. There are several teams in the "Franchise QB" market even as there are plenty of journeyman types out there, and Kirk Cousins who will be someones franchise QB soon enough. What if the Bills simply can't get the guy they want went the dust settles? It might not even be due to lack of interest or lack of trying...just being in the position they are in could simply mean they lose by default this go round. In 2019, should the Bills be in the market again, let's consider who else could be in that market. Let me speculate about 2018 first. Cleveland is going to end up with a QB one way or another in this draft. The Giants MIGHT take one, or trade out. I am going to call it now that they DO NOT take one in round 1 this year. The Colts shouldn't be in the QB market now, but I can't 100% call that until Luck throws some passes. Reports are that he won't need another shoulder surgery, but he still hasn't thrown. For the sake of this post, I'll assume he is healthy. No QB now, No QB next year. Denver- is a real wild card here. I don't think they are going to be able to sell Cousins on winning now in Denver, nor will they make the highest offer. I'd say they lose out on Cousins, but sign BRADFORD. (could be Keenum...half a dozen of one, 6 of the other ...whatever) They could still take one to develope, but that would be counter to trying to win now. The coaching staff is being given THIS YEAR, the roster window is basically THIS YEAR. They have holes to fill THIS YEAR. Elway may not have the green light to go QB after missing on Oswieler and Lynch...They may be inclined to wait until next year just because of where they are with their roster. Taking the QB now, with the coaching staff you are going to fire if they don't win now, is poor form. Lynch is still on the roster and while they may have determined he sucks....the situation almost demands he get one more shot before they tear down the whole thing...the roster, the staff..maybe even Elway himself. It seems like the timing is all off for Denver to be drafting one high. The one caveat being Josh Allen. If Denver can get him, I think that is who Elway loves and would be willing to go up and get him if they can make a deal to get to 1. I am going to say, in the end, Cleveland keeps the 1 and takes Josh Allen. Jets- This is another team that will end up with a QB be it Cousins or a draft pick. I am going to say that I think the Vikings are the leader in the clubhouse for Cousins. Cousins can get paid there, have a stable front office and roster, and coaching staff all there. The jets roster and staff or in limbo. So for 2018....Allen goes 1. Giants go Barkley. Colts go Chubb. Cleveland could look to trade back at 4, but dont' and go Minka Fitzpatrick. Denver again is the trade up wildcard here. If Bufalo likes Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold, they will need to be on the phone. I think the Jets will possibly pay a price just to move up to 3,4 or 5 and go with Mayfield. If not, Arizona will be hot on the phone to get up here for one of those 3. i don't know who arizona likes out of that grouping. I do think the Jets love Mayfield...either they have to go up a few spots to get him, or they get word that Arizona is coming up for Rosen or Darnold and stay put. Either way, the Jets are going to be Baker Mayfields new team. Assuming Arizona has traded up at this point, and the Jets have taken Mayfield....then it gets interesting for the trade up teams because that means Darnold, Jackson, and Rudolph are still on the board and the next several teams aren't in the QB market. If this plays out as I have it here, you are looking at dark horse teams who might be interested in moving up to grab Darnold. Miami could suddenly find itself interested in going QB. Cincy could consider going QB as they will have lost MacCaron. the Saints could be interested in finding Drew Brees replacement, and the Chargers might be looking at Phillip Rivers successor. All but New Orleans is currently ahead of the Bills....but at this point, the Bills draft Ammo is more than sufficient to get up there...the problem is, do they like Darnold, Rudolph or Jackson? Since this is about looking ahead to 2019, I will assume ONE of those teams trades up or stays put and lands Darnold. Then it becomes a two horse show. Does Buffalo like Rudolph or Jackson enough to move up if they feel they need to? Do they stay put and see if one of them makes it to them? Do they even want either of those two? for the sake of argument, lets say that they DO NOT go QB for whatever reason at this point.....you are looking at QB again in 2019....so what does that look like? First lets examine who might be in the QB market. Chargers if they don't get Rivers successor this year Saints if they don't get Brees successor this year Steelers if they think Ben is considering retiring Bengals if they are tired of Dalton and don't get a replacement this year. Oakland if Gruden decides Carr can't be redeemed. Tampa if they sour on Winston Tennesee if they sour on Mariotta. Miami if Tannehill can't stay healthy and they didn't draft a round 1 guy this year. Denver if the whole thing comes crashing down. All of these teams aren't certain to be in the QB market....a lot of things would have to play out to have any of them shopping for one. Let's go with Cincy being finished with Andy Dalton, being the actual main threat to draft one high. The Chargers, Saints and probalby Oakland will have a good record so will be drafting late even if they are looking QB. Miami won't be in the market if Tannehill is healthy and puts up Top 15 numbers...that's a reasonable expectation. Tennessee might be growing a bit tired of Mariotta, but I don't think they give up on him yet. Same with Tampa and Winston...and Winston has at least had some big stats here and there. that means really there might be 2-3 teams really in the "draft a franchise QB" mode to compete with the Bills. Next years Class does not look strong as of now...it could change....but Drew Lock as the top of the class next year would make me consider what's out there in 2018 pretty hard. I am a Missouri Fan, and I love Drew Lock as my Tigers QB....I don't think I'd want him leading my NFL team. So, summing it up.....Even though there would seem to be fewer NFL teams with a need in the 2019 draft for a QB, and that the Bills might be better positioned in that draft to get one, the class seems pretty weak at least this far out. You'd be kicking that can another year down the road for likely an even less appealing option than this year. In conclusion. Now is the time to make it happen. Good luck.

From what I have seen of him, his ceiling is Trent Green. Green needed parts around him to be good, but he was very good in Dick Vermiels offenses based on timing routes. Green did NOT have an elite arm...he had a damn good brain and could execute that offense and those routes very well. You can do worse than a Trent Green clone.

Couple of thoughts. I believe Denvers pick at 5 is going to be in play no matter what Cousins does. Denver is set up to win NOW. They have a coach basically coaching for his future this year, they have the team getting old and the window closing shortly, and John Elway, on top of needing to find players to win now, already swung and apparently missed ,or is still evaluating Paxton Lynch. If Cousins ins't in Denver, I'd bet that Sam Bradford is. Denver can stomach the injury history in exchange for a chance to keep the window open. Throw in that the longer this goes, the less enticing this class is...and that Denver may see 3 QB go off the board ahead of them....pick 5 is in play. And if the report is true that Cousins isn't considering the Bills or vice versa or both...then it will be imperative to get your QB....how will the fans possibly accept passing on Watson and Mahomes for draft capital that you don't end up spending now to address QB? One last thing.....for the Defense Wins Championships crowd....have you ever considered the possibility that a defense can perform much better when the QB on their team converts 3rd downs, scores points, doesn't make bad turnovers in his own end of the field? If you ask a defense to be great and win you a title that is a tall enough task as it is...but to overcome having to defend short fields, be on the field more often and the pressure to know your QB probalby isn't leading you to a comeback are major factors....it's part of why the teams with the franchise QB's keep showing up in the playoffs all the time....you can retool a defense and help it along with strong QB play...much harder the other way around.

I'm on record in other threads here saying the same thing, but this is the guy that is going to have draft day stock go up. ....he's prototypical size...lots of reps...good arm...well spoken and articulate speaker....looks and sounds the part....Not comparing from a physical talent perspective, but that guy sounds JUST LIKE TRENT GREEN. This guy has more physical gifts than Green had....Green had to max out his brain to get the most out of his limited tools...and he did it....The guy sounds like he could confidently command a huddle. ....This is the guy I am predicting will be the ultimate winner out of this draft class. Allen will bust. ....I am on the fence about Jackson but heard his interviews today, and all I could think of listening to him speak was Geno Smith. .....anyhow.....Here is your target Bufallo. You missed Mahomes, but you can totally redeem the day, and WIN the KC trade by getting the franchise QB in this draft (because it will have paid off for you to get the high end CB AND the draft capital) *Prediction* Rudolph goes in top 10. Buffalo will need to get up there.....and they have the ammo.

This is the most disappointing part of all this....Reid is supposed to be able to handle this kind of player and get the value out of him. The Chiefs are NOT in rebuild mode. They are in fix the defense mode. Offense is locked and loaded. The players that have been let go, aside from Peters, were old very costly vets that played very little as it was, and didn't contribute to a bad defense. Eric Berry back from injury, Amerson and Fuller added to bad secondary.....and Ragland expected to step up and be leader in the middle. ....I would not have thought they would make this trade. From a purely football perspective, Peters will cost you from time to time with dumb fouls...but he is a turnover machine..teams don't throw his way much at all. A true shutdown corner. And on his cheap rookie deal. 3 million this year, 9 million next year....could franchise tag a third year at about 15 or so probalby...still a bargain for a CB of his caliber. Given the LOW interest generated for him, he must be an awful nightmare in the locker room...he has NOT been a problem in the community at all. The Chiefs must be thinking this is "addition by subtraction" ....again from a football perspective, it makes no sense....gotta be a purely locker room/coaching issue driven move. Compensation still not announced, but we are expecting to be underwhelmed and hugely dissappointed in the return. In my opinion, you keep Peters and deal with him...he is worth more ON the team with his cheap contract, then not on with with the team getting a middling pick or 2. (BARF!) The last bit about moving on from Houston seems interesting...no talk of it...but given that they have traded Peters...anything is possible I guess. I'd venture to guess he stays as his contract is a nightmare to trade away and his dead money is too painful for the team to cut him.

Your assessment has caused me to reconsider my evaluation on Jackson....I'm going to go watch more film.

I don't know who John McClain is if he isn't slaying bad guys at Nakatomi plaza.....but Peter King? Come on...that guy is living off of reputation at this point. I will concede the version of events you describe is quite convievable....I don't think the Texans liked Trubisky. I don't think the Chiefs liked Trubisky. We know the Browns didn't like Trubisky or Watson. .....Watson looked good in the games he played....sad to see he suffered that injury..I'd like to see more....will be interesting to watch how that goes over the next couple of seasons for sure.

.....It probalby will be a kind of weak point due to his performance thus far in a somewhat small sample size, but an example of a team trading up to go get someone, anyone, becuase, hey we have to our QB situation sucks...would be the Texans last year. Some speculative reports suggested that they were more or less directed by the owner to go up and get Watson once Trubisky and Mahomes were off the board....reason being that owner wasn't going into yet another year with no QB he could sell to the fan base....Watson was a name, and in the time he was on the field, did put up some decent numbers and exciting play...before getting hurt...so jury still kind of out considering the whole picture including the injury. ....