Zerovoltz

Skins...I agree Warner is a great story. But, can you really call a guy who was basically barely on the radar a project? Maybe you can....he gained some notoriety playing in the Arena Leauge wich drew some interest from a few teams....but it's not like anyone went into that draft year and said Kurt Warner...he could be great but he's a project. I would think he is more a story about perserverance than being seen as this talented guy who just needed time and coaching.

Been reading through the recent Josh Allen threads and as has been hashed over and over....many think of him as a "project". It got me thinking....how many "project" QB's ever have really made it in the NFL? Steve McNair was the first one who came to my mind....he was drafted more or less as a project from a small school who was considered physically gifted but needed time to develop...and in his case...he actually did become a very good NFL QB after coming on pretty slow to start out....just as he was projected to do. Some would say Brett Favre was a project, but I can't really recall if that is what he was projected as, or just difficult to coach and tended to go off script to much as opposed to needing to work on becoming a better QB....(I am sure someone here can remind me/us) On the opposite side of that...the most recent disaster of a guy who pretty much everyone declared as a project is Paxton Lynch.......not being a Denver fan or close to that situation, I can't say I'd seen enough to declare him a bust, but they have....Case Keenum isn't there because they believe Lynch is about to be ready. Anyhow...post some examples of success and failures....identify what went right or wrong...might provide some insight into the draft class this year and maybe cause a few of us to reflect further or take a second look (I know just from visiting this site alone, I have wavered all over on Lamar Jackson based on peoples thoughts here)

Good write up. I don't agree with all of it, but it's useful information. I remain skeptical due to completion pct.....and the bothersome part is....this kid was a physical specimen, from California. He had to go to JUCO, where he had a low completion pct. .....you are asking me to believe that that this manchild with a golden arm, in California, was NOT RECRUITED to a divsion 1 school, where you would think that a coaching staff would be interested in coaching him up. That didn't happen. He went to JUCO and didn't light the world on fire there. He can throw it far. His targets, had a low drop pct. He was playing against lesser talented defenders. There is alot to like....clearly he is being considered because of the good qualities. I certainly can't say the OP is wrong, or that Allen can't be coached into being better than he has been....but I don't like the odds. I will remain skeptical.

.....Yes....there is no reason for HYPE....they are actually all in on the guy....trading a pro bowl QB, with a year left at a reasonable 20 million ought to tell you way more than anything myself or some pundit could SAY. They BELIEVE it....and so do I.

The 2017 Draft year, for the Chiefs to get Mahomes, a lot of things had to line up just right. The Bears taking Trubisky, then the Niners, opting not to like any of the QB, waiting on Cousins, The Jets, having only taking Hackenburg one season before, were still willing to wait on him, The Browns opted for Myles Garret at one. The bills having the FO in flux, as you say, with McDermott not about to have his career determined by Doug Whaleys scouting and draft, weren't taking a QB. As a long suffering Cheifs fan...it was wonderful to see my team FINALLY identify a guy and then go get him when he was there. I hope it works out for Buffalo this year. I understand your pain.

http://www.espn.com/blog/kansas-city-chiefs/post/_/id/24424/a-year-later-the-chiefs-would-do-it-all-over-again-with-patrick-mahomes-ii

....first lets get past this "they could have kept Jimmy G" garbage. No they couldn't have. .....He was going to be a UFA this offseason if he hadn't been traded. New England WAS NOT going to use the franchise tag on a QB who won't start. You can't pay your backup Starter money while you are paying your starter, starter money. The Pats did give him up cheap, but they still got more than what they would have gotten if they let him walk. (they got a 2nd, letting him walk would have netted a compensatory pick at end of round 3.) So, please folks, quit prefacing all your patriots takes with "they could have kept Jimmy G". they could not have. ...second. It may well be true they like Baker Mayfield...and as some others have noted....they can't get him. If the Browns don't take him. AND, the Giants opt to trade out of 2 AND the Giants don't take a phone call from the Jets to move down ONE pick so the Jets can assure themselves their choice at two AND the Bills also somehow, if the Giants are open for business...also can't beat the pats offer..then and only then, would the Pats be able to get Mayfield. ....the notion is ABSURD.

I've seen enough of Allen that I would avoid him until day 3. I'm not a coach or a scout. I am just some nobody like everyone else here. I like speculating, watching film, making a judgment like everyone else here. I can completely understand the fascination with the guy. He absolutely has the physical traits you want a QB to have. Big, tall, rocket arm...and high wonderlic score to boot. Seems to have interview quite well, and looked great at the combine and senior bowl. There is a ALOT to like there. To me....you can't overlook the flaws...wich are substantial. He makes poor choices at the line...he stares down targets. he isn't an accurate thrower. That alone, I could almost accept and deal with it...but the fact he did not IMPROVE over time is the single biggest red flag in my mind. This sort of flaw is major. If the Bills end up with Josh Allen it will be precisely because they couldn't get into the top 3 AND they will be panicking because frankly, you aren't going into this season with McCarron, no no.1 drafted QB, and the bleak prospects of 2019 at QB. The front office, after passing like they did last year, CAN NOT come away from day 1 without a QB. They CANT. If you get to pick 7 or so, and you know you have the Patriots, Cardinals, Chargers, behind you making calls, and for who, Allen, Rudolph, ? Jackson?...the pucker factor in the Bills war room will be defcon 5 if 1-2-3 is all QB and Allen isn't one of them....

We aren't talking about the order they will be picked in. you claimed he his recievers dropped the ball alot. they didn't. No one said anything about draft order. Just own it and move on.

Umm...not so much. Target drop passes percentages:Lamar Jackson - 8.5%Baker Mayfield - 8.0%Josh Rosen - 7.5%Mason Rudolph - 6.6%Josh Allen - 4.8%Sam Darnold - 4.3

True.

Of all the posibillities, I haven't seen much alluded to about the absolute worst case coming true on draft day. Here is a very real possiblity. 1 Cleveland takes a QB not named Josh Allen 2. Giants take a QB not named Josh Allen 3. Jets take a QB not named Josh Allen 4. Cleveland takes non QB. 5. Broncos take Josh Allen or non QB. 6-7-8-9-10-11. Someone trades up for Josh Allen if he is still on the board and it isn't the Bills. 12. Bills having missed top 4 QB, don't take one here. 13-21. Cardinals take Mason Rudolph, Chargers take Lamar Jackson or Saints(or New England) trade up for either of these guys before pick 22 and the Bills stay put. 22. No QB of note. Bills take non QB. The "build the roster first" people will be STOKED.

Browns - Darnold. They are going to end up doing this if for no other reason than, so if he doesn't work out they can sort of say "out of that grouping, most people had him no.1" He does seem to be no.1 on many folks lists. The Browns need some fallback excuse if they choose wrong. They can't take Allen even if they like him....red flags everywhere. Giants - Rosen. They could trade out, as Bills fans continue to hope is the case. Here is the problem with the "Bills trade up with Giants" scenario. Lets assume for a moment the Giants really don't want a QB and are considering Chubb, or whoever. The Bills will be on the phone certainly. The problem is the Jets. They will also be on the phone. The Jets will be taking a QB. The Giants can move back to 3 if they dont' want a QB, and gain a nice extra set of picks...like the Niners did with the Bears last year. They still get the Non QB they want. In this case the Giants get the player they want and extra picks. The Bills offer to get to 2 in this market, is going to have to be outrageous. (I'd pay whatever it took if my QB was there but....) I still think the Giants take a QB and it's a moot point. If they do stick or only move to 3, it's Chubb..but I am staying with Rosen. The Jets moving to three was a stroke of pre emptive brilliance frankly. The Bills are effectivly boxed out of the top 3, or at best, the price is going to be astronomical. One way or another at 2 or 3, the Jets will get Mayfield. Cleveland at 4 will stay put and get a non QB. Broncos at 5 will consider a trade down, but will take the Notre Dame guard they need badly...read my other posts for why. 6-7-8 Non QB. 9-10-11. Ripe trade up destinations for whoever wants a piece of Allen. This is the reality the Bills are facing down. Trade up for Josh Allen? Stay for Josh Allen? Someone else comes up for Allen and the Bills stand still for someone else? worst case. Bills don't move off 12 and someone (Arizona) comes up for Allen. Bills don't move off 22 and Mason Rudolph goes to the Chargers. Saints get wild hair and move ahead of Bills and take Lamar Jackson at 20 or so. Bills wait to day 2 or 3 for Lauletta, Mike White, etc.

You guys are looking at Alex Smith using box score analysis. His stat lines are often very good. The box score doesn’t show the clean pockets he runs out of, the wide open receivers he misses or won’t throw to, drives he kills by being too safe. Even the playoff loss. They didn’t pass to much. Also, moving on from Alex to Mahomes isn’t because they have “Zero Evidence”. It’s exactly the opposite. They saw enough to be comfortable with trading away a proven veteran under contract. Last. YES. The expectations are that Mahomes will be as good or better than Smith and he will be.

The first link at the bottom of my post is a good summary....in the preseason....(YES, I know..PRESESAON) ...I'm not looking at the stat line...watch the arm talent...the poise...watch his head...he does NOT stare down targets...he is very good at scanning and moving safeties with his eyes. ....the other thing...he can move pretty well, but Mahomes is NOT a running QB...he is not Vick, not Lamar Jackson...hell, Alex Smith is much more athletic runner than Mahomes.......so, to sum it up...he has good pocket presence..doesn't lock on to a target...and the arm talent is incredible. ....so not just that he can throw it far....but if he has to move left or right..your play isn't broken....he can accurately throw a football from anywhere on a field while on the move...to any target on the field. All the coaches say he eats and breaths football and is a remarkable young man. (sure, they say that about everyone, but you can see it when he talks, etc) .....I've seen plenty of so so QB's...Grbac, Cassel, Bono, DeBerg...Trent Green....Green and DeBerg had enough brains, but not the physical talent. Grbac had a pretty good arm, but was a poor leader. Bono...and others like him...they were just there.....I'm very very excited. BillsFan4....my post wasn't intended to be critical of what you had posted.....just more or less agreeing that those rankings are a guideline. I don't agree with your assement of Mahomes...but I completely understand your stance, and that it would be very hard to make a call on the small sample size of Mahomes in the NFL so far....I have no problem with anyone who needs to see more before they change their mind about him. Totally fair.

Yav, do you really think they will be looking for a QB again soon? Trading away a good QB like Smith with a year left on his contract at a reasonable 20 million....that doesn't signal they beleive they have the QB....if they weren't sure, or thought he wasn't ready....you know, they could have kept the well established good QB they already had the last 5 years on the roster........that doesn't tell you anything? It's not even an opinion...just read the tea leaves guy.

The Alex Smith die hards even exist on Bills forums apparently.

NFL coaches and front offices would take Mahomes 1 overall knowing what they know at this moment.

I hear the 2029 QB class is going to be incredible.

***Biased KC Fan Post Warning*** First, let's draw a couple very important distinctions in this discussion. There is a difference between how the consensus "grades" a prospect, and how the prospect actually turns out to be, or is evaluated by the team that took him, the teams that passed him, the teams that wanted to trade up and couldn't. With that in mind this could almost be a two or three part question. 1. Based on PRE DRAFT GRADES this year and BEFORE the 2017 NFL draft, where would you rank Watson and Mahomes when mixed with the 2018 class? 2. Based on what you know about the 2017 QB's now, where would you rank them Watson and Mahomes when mixed with the 2018 class? 3. Knowing everything you know now about how the season turned out, who you drafted at 27, what pick you got trading back, and what the landscape looks like to get your QB this year, would you still do that trade? or Would you undo the trade and take Mahomes or Watson? ....here is where you should be warned about my bias....so take the following with that information in mind as I attempt an objective take on this. Regardless of the consensus draft "GRADE", the Chiefs clearly rated him higher than a 2nd round caliber player....and because the Giants, Saints and Texans also had him rated higher than that, the Chiefs, knowing this is their target CORRECTLY identified a trade partner to get to a point high enough up in that draft to get him. With the idea that KC had identified Mahomes, understood there were others who had come to the same or similar conclusions that were NOT IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS DRAFT GRADES, they drafted him where he had to be drafted if you wanted him. Mahomes may therefore have had a consensus ranking of "2nd Round" but the actual market was he was top 10-15 round 1. All a pre draft grade does is set a guide to media, fans, and a very general broad look overall for front office types. Front offices/GMs/scouts etc...are paid to be right, not paid to contribute their thoughts and ideas into a pool so that a consensus can be established that everyone just follows. Having had all of 2017 to evaluate Mahomes further, see him in practice, work on his perceived and/or real issues, the same staff that drafted him, and the same staff who had won with pro bowl QB Alex Smith, decided that what Mahomes has shown them since they drafted was enough to trade Smith away. ....They traded away Alex Smith, who led the NFL in Qb Rating, won two straight division titles, and wasn't especially expensive considering the QB market we are now in. Smith had another year on his contract. They didn't have to trade him. Now, for those of you who remain skeptical because you haven't seen enough....you are absolutely entitled and justified in your thinking....I would simply say that you haven't seen enough because you didn't see him in the Denver game, or you haven't seen him in practive, or you didn't see his pre season (YES, I KNOW IT WAS PRESEASON) and you haven't heard Ried talk about what he has in Mahomes...or most likely, you've gotten bits and pieces of some of this at best. That is fine, and to be expected. I don't know the day to day intricacies of Buffalo and I couldn't attest to Tyrod Taylor for example, except reading what folks here might say, or reading his stats....I may have an opinion about Taylor, but it wouldn't be all that well informed. Having said that...and again, I am a biased Chiefs fan (one who has seen three decades of bad to mediocre QB play) and Mahomes is different, he is special. The scouts missed on his grade but Andy Ried didn't. Totally fair that most folks here can't buy in based on what I am saying here...but 4 games into 2018, your eyes will all be wide open. http://www.nfl.com/videos/baldys-breakdowns/0ap3000000905916/Why-Patrick-Mahomes-is-ready-to-lead-the-Chiefs-Film-Review https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2018/3/30/17180500/the-moment-andy-reid-knew-he-had-something-special-in-patrick-mahomes http://buffalonews.com/2018/03/01/combine-notebook-sean-mcdermott-thinks-patrick-mahomes-is-going-to-have-a-heck-of-a-career/

I'm a Tigers fan and I love me some Drew Lock...and I think he will be the best prospect coming out next year....but the kid needs to make more progress....on the field and off it. (he is fairly immature yet) ....Missouri has ran a QB friendly offense and has a good tradition on going for producing some good college QB....I wouldn't get on the Drew Lock train just yet.

This was the part of the article that really made the least sense....If they took Rosen, Darnold, or Mayfield....at 1 there is at least to me...still a very good chance the 2nd pick is a QB and the 3rd pick is 100% going to be a QB....Chubb has a MUCH better chance to be at 4 still than Rosen to be at 4. Surely the coaches, scouts and GM all are well aware of that this is the case.

If it has been posted here or alluded to here somewhere else...I apologize for being redundant if that is the case.

Came accross this.....I am not saying one way or another what I think of this....it is one of those "I know a guy who knows a guy" type of things. The guy seems to have at least a shred of credibility as his posts last year on this football forum where he posted prior to the draft seemed to have came to be. Again....I am posting this for your reading enjoyment...not as fact, not as an endorsement of my opinion....in fact, this runs counter to what I still continue to think will happen wich is Darnold no.1 overall. Anyhow....here it is....for entertainment purposes only. This stirred up reddit a little while ago when a poster imported it from the Browns' section of another forum, Football's Future. Personally I found the reported takes to be plausible, if not credible, in no small part due to confirmation bias, if nothing else. However, regardless of the credibility you give it, you might find the described recon approach teams take to be as fascinating an account of corporate espionage as I did. Below is the OP from the original site with later edits of the reddit back and forth removed. Here's the link to the thread: https://forums.footballsfuture.com/topic/7725-the-coaches-want-rosen-at-1-other-serious-browns-draft-rumblings/ =============================================================================================================================================== **LONG POST ALERT*** I have some terrible news to inform everyone. It looks like we really will be passing on Darnold.... THIS IS NOT SOME STUPID TROLL, or me doing the reverse psychology thing saying Baker's going first while secretly feeling giddy and knowing we're taking Darnold at 1 as a way to cope with the possibility the Browns might screw this up. (Skip to The News below if u must) As I've said before, my brother in law was a scout & personnel assistant exec for 11 years. I never ID'd his team when he was employed but he was canned in the mass firings when Mr. Reese and co. were fired from the Giants. Although I'm often wrong about my own predictions, my b.o i. always cautioned me that what he'd tell me in terms of rumors has a chance of being misinformation put out by other teams to hide their true intentions. However, the vast majority of things he told me that I posted on this forum came true. For example, for those people that actually paid attention to my posts on the old forum before last year's draft, you'd remember that based on what my b.o.i. heard at the combine I posted "the Bears will look to trade up for Trubisky with either the Browns at 1 or San Fran at 2." At the time, only 3 people responded to that post. I also posted that "Sashi Brown was seen twice via my b.o.i.'s team spycraft department, 1st with Rick Smith of the Texans, and 2nd with Ryan Pace of the Bears at a private membership only room at a Wine & Cigar lounge in Indy" and... "Dont be surprised if we trade one of our picks to the Bears or Texans." That post received 2 responses and came true regarding the draft. Teams have 10s and even 100s of thousands of dollar budget for their "spycraft" depts that includes things you wouldnt even believe all in order to propel the interests of their million dollar cash cows. One of the more basic ways for teams to get inside info is to recruit disgruntled "soon to be fired" scouts and personnel staffers away from another team while they are still employed and possibly privy to strategic information. ALL teams try to do this. The best and smartest teams top execs leave scouts & even key personnel staffers in the dark on real rankings and strategy for fear of info leaking out. The elite top execs only inform the owner & a select few before the draft. Smart top execs run disinformation campaigns and put up false rankings in plain view of scouts and staffers so the disinfo will leak to teams giving them an advantage to operate under the veil of confusion. The News: My b.o.i. told me this morning "the scuttlebut is that 6 Browns scouts & 1 personnel exec have been "respectably" flipped (i.e., they already agreed to move on to a team without breaching the trust of their former employee) due to being promised future jobs & due to being disgruntled"...However, 2 scouts and 1 personnel exec has been "unhonorably flipped" (i.e., informing on the teams draft beliefs while still employed to another team) with 1 person in particular "lacking any sort of ethics and is singing like canary so much that the team he's giving the info to is secretly laughing their a**es off b/c they know there's no way in hell they're hiring this guy after all this." Apparently, there is already a major rift between the offensive coaches & the top personnel execs regarding the pick at 1 and ranking the QBs. It's likely irreconcilable. In what was a shocker to me as a "Darnold no matter" what guy Todd Haley, Ken Zampese, Hue Jackson, and Al Saunders (he's become a de facto QB scout) are united in the belief that Josh Rosen is their guy, clear cut by a wide margin. The combine interview only confirmed this and they are all in. They all agree that Sam Darnold is their number 2, but there are some disagreements between the coaches on who is 3rd as some say Baker Mayfield while others surprisingly say Lamar Jackson. All the coaches apparently have Josh Allen 5th which completely surprised me. The only personnel execs that mostly agree with the coaches are Eliot Wolf & Andrew Berry with Wolf having Darnold as QB1 and AB having had Darnold at 1 precombine but put Rosen ahead at 1 after the interview as Darnold tanked the interview and had no presence on the white board (I'd say did Mariota or Eli have a presence? Did Favre do a great job with X&Os on the board? No... but I digress..) The rest of the top personnel staff (John Dorsey, Scot McCloughan--yes he's a top staffer more on that in a bit, and Alonzo Highsmith) along with Paul DePodesta have Baker Mayfield as their clear cut leader by a wide margin. The personnel guys then have Josh Allen number 2! Followed by Sam Darnold at 3 and Josh Rosen at 4. Paul DePo supposedly has it Baker, Rosen, Darnold, Jackson, & Allen. Complicating the matter is apparently Scot McCloughan has come in waving a big stick as a former GM like he's the de facto top personnel guy when John Dorsey isnt around. He pulls his "when i was GM" card out in every debate. He is not consulting with other teams as that was just a farce to buy him time to finish some past due work that he and his company owed some teams for purchasing their scouting services. He is a full time Browns employee. This has in particular caused friction with Eliot Wolf as he thought he'd have that "right hand man assistant GM" role and it seems that Scot will have a powerful permanent position after the draft unless something changes and problems can be worked out. Right now, John Dorsey is supposedly selling Jimmy that Baker is the top prospect as identified by Analytics and Traditional Scouting methodology with Paul DePo in his corner. Dorsey and Scot were blown away by Baker's combine interview while coaches thought he was too defensive. As a temporary compromise just to keep the peace while much draft work is still to be done, the coaches and personnel execs are now strongly discussing that they will take their number 1 player on the big board Bradley Chubb at #1 overall and their QB at 4. Which to me makes ABSOLUTELY NO FU**ING sense at all when we need a QB.....but again I digress... Distraught on Skype I immediately asked my b.o.i. " if this was all a joke" and "how certain are you that this isnt just elegant disinformation on the Browns part"? He told me it's absolutely not a joke and the same spycraft dept heads (some of the best in the business) that he trusted in NY all those years have the Giants new personnel staff convinced that it is real enough to the point where everyone on the Giants staff except for new GM Dave Gettleman and an assistant staffer are operating as if it's true and they'll have their pick of all the QBs at 2 or at worst Baker Mayfield will go 1. I've jokingly been saying Baker would go 1 but secretly believed Hue and co AND Dorsey all loved Sam Darnold at 1. I never even considered the thought that Josh Rosen wouldve been the unanimous selection among the coaches. My only hope now is that some compromise is struck and we go Chubb at 1 and Rosen makes it to 4 based on the personality thing, or Hue and the coaches win out and we take Rosen at 1 to guarantee we get our QB, or that meathead Dorsey is running the most sophisticated 4D chess misinformation game utilizing scouts, coaches, and personnel people as pawns to fool the scouting community. I'll hold my breath on the latter. Say goodbye to Darnold for real my friends. He's the hero we deserved...I'll never stop believing that based on the tape review. It just really sucks... I'm now going to watch Rosen again and try to 1. convince myself I like him more than Darnold and 2. Somehow the coaches desires win out...wish me luck.. Oh...P.S. I hate-love (more hate than anything) this sh** team with all my heart..

In hindsight of course he would have. Doesn’t change his goal or idea that going in he had to find a QB and was willing to expend resources to do so