Zerovoltz

you make a valid point about risk management here for sure. I would simply ask....that given the Risks with Rosen are based on his percieved aloofness and arogance...personality....and injury history.....vs the more tangible metric of completion percentage/results on the field for Allen....is Rosen the bigger risk? I don't propose to know, but some arogant jerks who can produce on the field have been good pros before...whereas this completion pct/stats issue for Allen has a lot of actual math behind it to suggest there is substantial risk. .....again.....I am not trying to say one or the other is a more worthwhile risk.....certainly an interesting take on it.

....probalby has to do with the notion that a college QB with such a low completion pct has never been successful in the NFL.....and even when there have been a few to imrpove...the best case is Jake Locker going from a 54% passer in college to a 57% passer in the NFL....3 pct...and still well below what most would consider good enough to succeed. The anger isn't so much at Allen as it is in the idea that for 2 years this whole series of trades, moves, jockeying, etc...was all to lead up to getting "the man" ....and when the pick finally came in, the leadership selected Josh Allen...a huge gamble/risk. (I have my reservations about Allen, BUT...I LOVE that your front office pulled the trigger and is shooting for the stars instead of accepting status quo)

1. - even if your first 8 games happen to be against what ultimately turn out to be the easiest 8 games played in the NFL all year....he should still be on the bench. 2. I certainly could be wrong about my evaluation of the Bills offensive talent. I'm not a scout etc. I wouldn't have a different opinion in regards to Allen if you had for example, the Patriots offensive roster. I THINK that Allen isn't ready to carry what appears to be an offensive side lacking the kind of talent to carry a QB. 3. McDermott did quite an impressive job getting the Bills to the post season. I certainly wouldn't have counted the Bills as a playoff team heading into last season. You and many others have stated that if Allen can show he is heads and shoulders above the other 2 running the offense in camp/pre-season, he should start. I AGREE with that....but since this is pre camp, and no preseason games to watch yet, we are speculating here....and so, I am speculating that his pre draft scouting report isn't wrong, that he is who everyone says he is...(a physical talent, a smart kid, who was inaccurate in actual games, on a bad team in a bad conference) I think this will manifest itself in camp and especially on the field in preseason. I frankly can't wait to see how it plays out. I think what will happen is that Allen will look like a guy who needs some work and time on the bench when we get to live action, but I'm certainly looking forward to seeing what he looks like in a game setting and having my views challenged. Also...I'm not ANTI Bills or Anti Allen. I've said on this board many times that I really want this all to work out for you folks. This board and fan base are GREAT to interact with...it's why I keep showing up here...great group. Unless you are playing the Chiefs, I will be rooting for the Bills. (and hey, I got my picture taken with Poncho Billa at the draft even) .....Anyhow....I am calling it like I see it....like I said...my worthless 2 cents.

1. This really isn't related to my thoughts on Josh Allen but.... 2. We expect Mahomes to have some days like this. He's running with the 1's. We are trying out several players at the C position with the 1's. 3. Mahomes is getting praise from all over the place locally, nationaly, other players, etc...having sat pretty much a year...and this being his first season playing...I am expecting there will be some times where we cringe...but at this point, completely expecting a dynamic, franchise QB over the coming 15 years...nothing at this point to say that isn't the expected trajectory. I stand by my thoughts on Allen. He's an incredibly intriquing prospect because of his physical and mental makeup. On an actual football field, he has had some well documented issues with accuracy. I am willing to entertain the idea that Allens completion PCT can actually be improved by almost 10 pct even though that would be unprecedented. Allen could be coached up to a QB who could exceed the 60% completion pct threshold in the NFL someday but I'm only willing to think it possible if he gets a TON of reps, in practice, with NFL caliber players on the field with him, and good coaching. The only argument I will buy that he had the low completion pct in college is due to poor coaching, poor talent around him and that he spent a ton of his on field time playing sandlot football, totally off script. Josh Allen is the very RARE case where if ever a guy could truly see tangible benefits by sitting and learning then he is it. For the sake of your future, for the sake of seeing this whole thing through the right way and to end up with a QB that can be a franchise 15 year guy....he needs to be solidly planted on the bench for the whole year....and at bare minimum, the first 8 games.

My worthless 2 cents. I think it will be Peterman. ....it could be McCaron, but the important thing here is that the question being asked should be Allen or someone else. The someone else part doens't really matter what their name is or who they are. Some of you posting here have mentioned that Allen was drafted, knowing that there will need to be some time to develop. that has not changed. he's been mostly running with the 3's. He's also lived up to his scouting report. Big arm, athletic. smart. looks like the god of QB's in a no pressure practice type situation (like he always has) I'd venture to say that at some point in the season he will start, but not game one...here is why: 1. The Bills opening 8 games are so are brutal. Let one of your low dollar, not in the future plans, scrub QB's take those hits and losses. No need to expose Allen to the brutal speed and harshness of the NFL over these first 8 games. 2. The Bills offensive roster isn't very good. I'm not a Bills fan as you all know....just objectively looking at your roster on the offensive side of the ball...it's frankly pretty bad. Again, let the other QB's come in and have to work with this less than optimal talent level to start with. Perhaps after 8 games, the talent level won't be much better but at least there will have been some time for the O-line to develop some cohesiveness and maybe some guys emerge here and there. 3. There should be no illusions that this is a playoff team, and certainly not a contender at this point. Let the other QB's take the wrath of the fans and media while Allen remains the golden boy in waiting, the great hope of the future, unstained by what will probalby be a pretty miserable opening to the season. Bring him in when the fans and media no longer are clinging to any hope that this team is has any realistic post season asperiations.....Then the focus can be on watching Allen and seeing how he does game to game..hopefully finding tangible evidence of improvment until the end of the season....giving you something to be hopeful about in 2019 when they can also spend to improve his weaponry, his o line...another draft...etc. You all like to point at "the process". Starting week 1 would be kind of anti process. sacrifice Peterman and McCaron so that Allen can have the best shot at sustained success (if he is ever to have it) Week 1. Someone not named Josh Allen.

He isn't off balance on either throw. unlike many QB's who will spin away and run when the outside rush is collapsing the pocket, Mahomes goes forward, keeping his eyes downfield...and delivers a strike right on target. The other play he moves around in the pocket...again, his eyes scanning the field the whole time as you can see his head progressing through targets...he sets and throws a lazer 20 yards downfiled right on target. He isn't off balance on either of these. I can show you one where he doesn't set his feet and tries to use nothing but arm to throw the ball deep downfield and it ends up being underthrown, but it isn't these two plays. Anyhow....interesting how you see a QB doing everything wrong on these two plays and I see a QB doing what you'd want an NFL QB to do in both of them.

Jay Fixit...please....break down what you see in the GIF....I am very interested to know how you see this.

So...he takes a snap from under center, does a play action fake, turning his back on the defense..things he is supposed to suck at....he climbs up in the pocket, looks right then whips a pass to the left to the open man while moving forward...this is bad? That is everything you'd want the QB to do on that play. The second play, he takes the snap, LOOKS over the field, sets his feet and WHIPS a pass 20 yards upfeild to the open man.....LOL....yes, this IS why we are excited.

You aren't wrong....but you are simplifying it just a little bit by saying he has done "nothing". It would probably be safe to assume that everything he has done since drafted, on the practice field, in the classroom, in preseason and in the Denver game....compelled the Chiefs to feel good about trading away Alex Smith who they still had under contract one more year. I don't think they would have done that for "nothing". It would be reasonable to expect that no matter what anyone says, fans, pundits etc...it is clear the Chiefs coaches and brain trust think they have "something".

You didn't click on the link and read the article, that is full of plenty of video breakdown...detaling why they traded smith and why all the hype.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/6/19/17477286/patrick-mahomes-hype-train

As a few other said...he signed with KC for the money. If KC had Matt Cassel at QB this year and we (KC) offered that contract, he would still be a Chief...and he would say something like, I feel like Andy Ried's O is the best fit....95% of players in any sport, select the contract that pays the most...there are few exceptions here and there to play close to your hometown, or you've been with a team so long you give a bit of discount to stay put...but 95% of the time...it's the money....players say and do stupid things all the time, but it's amazing that none of them ever just say it was about the money....it's especially baffling that in hip/hop black culutre...the way money is celebrated that most of these guys don't just come and brag all about the money.

Well...then we seem to be in agreement about Allen at least...I am strongly advocating that he sit for now....and I am not disagreeing with what you saw Allen do at Wyoming...it's why I think he should sit...that environment was not one conducive to training a QB up to make reads, throws from the pocket. He has nothing but a history of low completion pct..so I don't know if he'll ever improve.....you'd think there'd be a pattern of progress there as most QB's display in college...but I digress...when you take a ton of reps and most of those reps are running around and trying to find open slow targets...that isn't good prep for the NFL....good prep is what he is getting now and he needs to repeat this and work on it on the practice field and in the classroom. He has the tools that everyone wants..it's why he went in the top 10 of the draft...big arm, big body, athletic, mobile and smart..and by all accounts a good leader...everything you'd want...I'm not telling anyone here anything new...the scouting reports all say the same thing.....if he is ever going to be more than a great prototypical tools guy...he needs quality reps with quality coaching and players around him...his college experience did not provide him that.

GaryPinC is seeing what I am seeing. BB@Shooter....curious to know your thoughts on Allens development...should he sit? should he play now? What do you think about what you've seen and hear about him so far? Submitted without further comment.

It's not just that.....but if you study it....and better yet....just take in the reality that they traded Smith away, when they didn't have to at all...for this guy....it speaks volumes.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/baldys-breakdowns/0ap3000000905916/Why-Patrick-Mahomes-is-ready-to-lead-the-Chiefs-Film-Review

Hapless Bills Fan - Last year, in some Chiefs facebook groups I post in, I was looking at the Sit Vs Start now debate raging about Mahomes at the time. A lot of people were just throwing it out there that Mahomes should sit because he was a rookie and needed to learn. No one...not armchair internet guys...not paid sportswriters....no one ever supports this with any data....they just throw it out there like it's a forgone conclusion that a rookie is better of sitting....but is that really the case? It's a tough question to answer because plenty of awful QB, never see a field because they are awful...and plenty of awful QB see the field because they are a high draft pick....so the best I could do was to take the STARTING QB's from the last 20 super bowls. This gave me a sample size of several long term starting QB who are considered to be good to elite for the most part. It also has a nice cross section of high first round picks, a few other round picks and an undrafted FA all in that grouping. The idea was to check the QB rating for each of these QB's over the course of the first 16 games they started in the NFL. IF sitting was a benefit to a NFL superbowl caliber QB, you would think that among this group, those who sat signifigant time to start their career, would have a highter QB rating over their first 16 games started, having sat an learned, practiced more before starting out, etc etc. What that data actually shows is that of that group of super bowl starting caliber QB, their QB rating over the course of their first 16 games was basically identical. the sit and learn group was actually a point or 2 lower in QB rating than the start from day one group. The most telling thing about the data to me was that the rating for these guys was almost the same on average for the their frist 16 games. The data says that if a QB is going to be good/great, it is because he had the talent to begin with and that over the first 16 games of his career, he does NOT gain an advantage having sat. He learns to be an NFL QB at the same rate as the guy who started from day 1 by BEING ON THE FIELD AND PLAYING NFL GAMES...not reading playbooks, not studying film....not watching someone else do it. ......and then YES...I go against my own analysis for Josh Allen and strongly suggest that to ME...in my opinion....is the rare guy who probably would actually see tangible improvement by sitting a year to start with....I do not think that Wyoming prepared him for NFL football at all. (I frankly don't think he'll ever be that good) ...but playing behind a poor line, with poor talent around you, means you repeated over and over again...a lot of things that didn't prepare you to be a good NFL QB. If all your reps were running for your life, throwing to slow targets, then Allen would be a guy who would actually benefit from staying OFF an NFL field on game day until he has made real progress on the practice field. No one is saying he doesn't have the build, the arm, the brains....but he simply doesn't have anywhere near the QUALITY REPS most others got in college football to be ready. To be CLEAR....Wentz, Goff, even Mahomes....got A LOT more out of their time in college football than Allen did. He needs this year to get right. I'm not convinced he'll ever be accurate enough for the NFL...I didn't think he'd ever be before the draft, and I still don't....what I am SURE about is that he shouldn't be thrown out on the field now. That wouldn't be fair to him...and it wouldn't be fair to you, the fans of the Bills to ruin this kid because he wasn't ready. To summarize. Yes, I think if you believe a QB is the real deal, he needs to start....Yes, I think Allen needs to sit because he is the exception due to his unusual college career. And lastly....Mahomes is going melt your faces off this year.

***I am biased*** but being as objective as I can be here.... 1. I don't want to lose site of the actual thread topic. This is a Josh Allen thread and about how he is doing. The reports coming out all match up with his scouting report. He has an incredible arm. He is mobile. He looks the part, and he is missing some throws. He is behind the others learning the playbook because the others have been here longer but he is catching up....high wonderlic score would indicate he can learn fast. This is ALL as advertised.....and he needs to SIT. I've done some analysis of QB's who started in the super bowl over the past 20 years and I looked at the first 16 games each of them started. The data in this case shows that sitting did not matter. A guy who sat 3 years had the same QB rating as the guy who started from day one over the course of the their first 16 games. It suggests that a super bowl starting caliber QB is going to be good wether he sits or not....and that the first 16 games of on field experiecne matter more than anything else. ......in the case of Allen, I would say he is one of the few who WOULD BENEFIT from sitting. His low completion pct playing at a small school, and the notion that he had a poor line and had to move around a lot suggests his reps in college were not very productive reps....in that he was often repeating plays where he had to run around etc and throw to less than decent targets....he isn't at a point where he would benefit by getting on an NFL field until he's had a TON of reps, in practice, with NFL level coaching, getting him prepared for the speed of the game, getting him used to the idea that he'll need to trust a pocket will be there and make reads to guys moving a lot faster. He needs to sit at least a year for all of this to take hold. Against the data, in this case...the exception is Josh Allen...there has never been such an obvious case for completely ruling a guy out of any plans to start for at least a year than this case with Allen. For the benefit of your team and your future....root for him to SIT. 2. Again...I am biased....and trying to be objective as I can....Mahomes is going to be a generational talent...you'll see it soon enough. If you draw your opinions on box scores, you are missing A LOT. Mahomes did have identifiable issues with his footwork, and he did make some glaringly poor throws in college. It's why he didn't go first overall...he needed some work. He got work. .....I can post a ton on this etc...but this is a Bills forum...I understand where I am here....I hope Allen works out for the Bills...I am looking forward to seing how it plays out in time. Lots of new QB talent coming into the leauge this past coupole seasons...very exciting times. 3. If nothing else....let Peterman or McCaron take the beating for the first 8 games at least. If you are honest about where the Bills roster is at this time, it isn't that great. Especially on offense. Let the kid sit...let the lesser guys take the pounding, and the wrath of the fans and media....then when he does get put into game action later on...the season will long be over, the team and fans will be ready to look at the remaining games to see what Allen can do and how he progresses...instead of looking at him as the guy who is going to save the franchise right now (he isn't ready!) SIT. SIT. SIT. Patience....and more paitience. Keep your shiny toy in the box for a while....

My 2 cents on this. Before the draft, NO ONE anywhere was saying Josh Allen would be a day one NFL starter. If ever there was a guy who needed to "sit and learn" it is Josh Allen. Allen is the same guy today he was before the draft..a physical specimen with a powerful arm....who has CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE flaws that need to be addressed before he would be considered ready to get onto an NFL field. Allen is at MINIMUM a one year bench project and probably should be brought along even more slowly than that given what he is at this point. For comparison, look no further than Paxton Lynch. Go read his scouting reports pre draft a couple years ago..he was a "2-3 year project" with great size and arm who played in a spread BLA BLA BLA. They knew he was a project when they took him....and they got impatient and have given up on him already out there. I can't say it's justified to have given up or not, but it's a little unfair to call a "2-3 year project" a bust when you haven't given him 2-3 years EVERYONE though it would take to develope the guy. This is the danger with Allen. It is VERY HARD for a coaching staff to survive at 2-3 year development QB and see it though to where it pays off. If NOTHING ELSE, then ending the playoff drought last season might have bought your staff enough credibility and time to see it through....but that won't matter if the team is losing while waiting for Allen to be ready and the fans quit showing up...ownership will be tempted to compell the coaches to get the kid on the field NOW, or fire the coaches to placate the impatient fans. It's going to be a rough go. ....and after the time has been put in...you better get some results that show he is the QB to lead the team or a housecleaning comes and this all starts over again. One other note....as much as I love Mahomes...and I think he could have started and done fairly well last season, KC had a pretty unique situation being able to sit the kid, work on his issues, while fielding a division winning team with a really good QB onboard already. Whole lot easier for even me, to wait while Smith was still leading a good football team. Buffalo has a really rough schedule to start the year off. Let AJ take that beating..take the negative press, ....Allen needs work and reps...for at least a whole year....I'm normally of the shcool of thought that if a QB is going to be good, then he will be good wether he sits or not. ...this would be an exception. You drafted a KNOWN project...now let him go through "THE PROCESS" of being a project. If it is going to pay off at all, it has to be this way.

Not gloating, bragging etc...just repeating what I have heard locally from KC OTA's.....take it for what it's worth...it's practice....but Sammy Watkins made a couple of spectacular one handed catches (there is film out there, if you search twitter for it.) ...Lots of comments on how smooth and fast he is...sharp sharp route runner. I think KC overpaid by quite a bit for the guy, but he does have a chance to make it look like a respectable contract in this offense...going to be designed to find the open guy/one on one match up and expect that guy to win most of the time....can't double cover Hill, Kelce, Watkins and Hunt every play...someone will be in man or have a matchup to exploit...that is the idea anyhow...If Watkins can "win" his matchup, Mahomes can get him the ball. Watkins matchup win numbers with the RAMS were actually VERY VERY good (I can get the metric if you want me to go hunt it down) ....Goff didn't exploit his wins at a high pct. Anyhow...it's OTA's.....looking forward to preseason with pads on to get a real idea of what Watkins is going to look like in KC.

Just for clarification...when I said the "book is closed"...yes, that means all the moves, picks etc have been executed...so now we know who got what and who went where.

I absolutlely understand...and if I was McD, I'd probably have done the same thing...don't let the guy on the way out, lock me into a QB I haven't seen or evaluated and have that determine my fate....I'm not saying it was the wrong move by McD, but pointing out that these circumstances may come back and bite the Bills.

(yeah, I am trolling a little here) ....the set up for the 2017 Draft meant that the coach and GM weren't working together. Plenty of speculation about it all...maybe so, and maybe not...but it might have prevented the Bills from taking Watson or Mahomes....wich led of course to Allen this year. ....and we simply can not say yet if this was a disaster or not...but we can certainly point to this as a point in time when the coach and outgoing GM were not likely on the same page.

I agree with your initial statement that college stats have never correlated to NFL Success....there is a long long list of college superstars who won trophies and put up "numbers" that bombed in the NFL. However, there is a stat that's been thrown out about completion percentage in college correlating to NFL failure. Someone posted an argument in here in another thread about Josh Allen having not been raised up going to clinics and camps and etc etc....and on and on..and that he is only just now getting real coaching etc. I'd buy in 100% to that argument IF he had show improvement throughout his college career. The biggest red flag to me was that his completion pct was low at JUCO, and no one out in southern california thought they could coach him up..not even the minor players out there like Fresno State or SD State or San Jose State, who have put QBs into the NFL, and always get beat to the top talents by USC, Stanford, UCLA etc...they passed. Even still, Wyoming takes the kid. ....His completion pct sucked. it sucked again, and it never quit sucking. It would bother me a great deal to see that those mid majors out in California, again, who have put QB's in the NFL...Carr, Fales, ...didn't think they could coach that out of him. ....and then he goes to Wyoming, and those guys for whatever reason...failed to coach him up. Now, I am looking at this from a far...so I am sure I am missing something here..but....The same coach (and GM) decided that a guy who had already has a 62.4 pct completion pct with 51 passing TDs against 18 pics, who has thrown for 9054 yards and rushed for 1700 yards and 15 TDs....that guys flaws can't be fixed......but they beleive they can "fix" Josh Allen? .....I'm not here to promote Tyrod Taylor. He may be Alex Smith light...not willing to throw downfield...takes off running out of clean pockets on 3rd and 8 and gains 3 and you punt....From what I have read, it may well be that Taylor had some of that going on....and if you decide that you are moving on from that...that is fine...it doens't change my point. The coaching staff couldn't fix the NFL QB who again has a stat line of 62.4% 9054 Yds, 51 TDS, 18 ints, 1700 rushing and 15 rush TD...but they can fix this other guy that almost no one thought was fixable, and then in college, didn't improve after the guys who thought he was fixable brought him into their program...... I really hope it works out for you all....you deserve a great QB.

Tell me if I'm wrong...but didn't Whaley like Mahomes?