Zerovoltz

These are all straight from the TBD Archives, staring, You all. Here is this gem, discussing trading out of 10 pre draft....amazing how many people were calling for a trade back into the 20's so you could pick up the extra 2018 First round pick. "The Frankish Reich" has a very prophetic quote in this one. .....this one not so much.... Another long one with MOST eveyrone on board with trading down and passing Mahomes. This one is just gold.... Interesting pre draft take here

This is another quote that keeps coming up over and over and over again...... A) If every QB, no matter how talented or good they look in any other offense or on any other team, would do no better than Josh Allen, then WHY expend all the draft capital to draft Josh Allen? B) If any QB, no matter how talented, or not, they are, would look as good as Mahomes does now, then why didn't Alex Smith do this with same offense and weaponry?

.....I have to laugh at the “wait until they get film on him” takes. Watson was throwing a lot of Ints last year and a lot of 50/50 passes. The tape showed that he isn’t as effective from the pocket. Dak never was especially accurate without a strong play action game. what are teams going to actually see on film watching Mahomes? That in the pocket he will go through reads quickly, get the ball out quickly? That he looks off safeties and no looks a pass the other way? Or that you send pressure he just runs left or right and still throws strikes 25 yards down field? He has more completions with his off hand (1) than he has interceptions (0) Mahomes is different.

90% chance of steady rain at game time does not help us (KC)

Heard a rumor in KC that you all might trade Lawson to us. Sign me up. He can’t be worse than what we have here.

I am bumping this again because it's right after Mahomes Monday night magic and alot of you are over reacting or mis remembering the situation in 2017. First a refresher......your owner made the odd call of hiring a new coach, and leaving Whaley in place for the draft. The new coach, a defensive minded coach, wasn't about to draft a QB on his own, less than expert opinion....and he wasn't going to draft one on the recomendation of Whaley, who was leaving (have seen some rumors Whaley liked Mahomes) .....So this doesn't come down on McDermott...he wasn't in a position to make this call with any confidence, and since his job would be and IS, riding on the future of the QB position, he couldn't make this call at the time. Whaley didn't have control of the picks....he was providing scouting info to McD....ironically, IF Whaley was right about both MAHOMES and TRE WHITE...props to Whaley. .....the choice to avoid QB in 2017 was due to the owners method of reshaping his front office and staff....there is where the blame goes. I'm not a Bills fan, but your current staff isn't the reason you didn't take a QB...that was Pegula. Now, that said (again) .....your staff was all set, all the moves and trades etc were made and you ended up with Allen (I am well quoted here saying Mayfield, was the man, then I liked Rudolph second. then Darnold, Rosen, and NOT either of Allen or Jackson so I won't go over that again) ...you have Allen. You've all read the scouting reports...You know what you have...so...while you will always look back at 2017 at Mahomes, Watson etc....the guy you need to be looking at is TRUBISKY. I'm not telling you Trubs has arrived as a QB....but I am telling you that GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES and that you drafted Allen, your realistic assements of Allens developement need to be based on the Bears and Trubisky. The bears had a decent D and a crappy O all last year. They spent heavily this past offseason to upgrade the weapons for Trubs...you will be doing the same this upcoming offseason. Trubuisky was not good last year...he didn't look good most of the time....there were instances here and there that some could point to that suggested he might be able to improve, but no one really thoguht much of him after a season. He hasn't been much to look at this year either, until this past game where he really lit it up with the 5 TD in the first half. It's been a boon of optimism for the folks in Chicago who were really dreading that they had missed on their QB. Alot of football to play, but Do yourselves a favor....forget 2017....that happend, it was pegulas fault. Let your coach and GM have a minute to get out of cap hell and see if you got something in Allen or not....it's going to suck ALL YEAR most likely....compare to the 2017 Bears and Trubs.....see if you can identify similarities or even points where Allen may be ahead of that schedule if there are any.....you will be misserable trying to look at what KC etc are doing...your TEAM isn't there right now.....The path is the bears....that is who you are trying to catch and pass.

Kendall fuller dropped a game ending INT the play before.

It is hard to measure progress without a comparable player or situation. I was thinking a comparable player and situation would be Mitch Trubisky with the Bears. He was drafted onto a team with a decent RB and no other weapons. The D was decent. They spent the whole first year that way then spent this offseason to add to the offense. Mitch didn’t have a good first year. 7 tds, 7 ints. Low yardage etc. he hadn’t been all that much better thus far until today. PS. Allen wasn’t very good against the Vikings as these things go. The defense gave him short fields, he fumbled three times, and the Bills fell on all three. He threw a few balls that should have been picked and his one deep pass was a well under thrown duck that the receiver got under and the defender overran. Compard to Mitch as the season goes. He’s a good measuring stick for the player and situation

I've addressed this in other threads....I came here because the Bills traded out of 10 and we moved up for Mahomes. I am fascinated by the dynmaic of that trade and it's even more interesting since the Bills opted to participate in the QB class of 2018 instead. I am SURE that I rub some folks here the wrong way at times....but this is a really fun board with smart fans. I enjoy reading and posting here even though I am a Chiefs fan. (local boards are WAY WAY too homeristic) I am not against Allen....I have stated that I don't think he will succeed, but I am rooting for him to prove me, the metrics people and many scouts wrong...he's a great story, and I don't hate the Bills at all....I hate the Broncos and Raiders. Anyhow...good smart fans...lots of inteligent discussion.

.....so Allen, who has played only a couple fewer games than Mahomes, isn't subject to getting tape and teams adjusting?

I would implore anyone here to consider the following: Alex Smith had ALL the SAME WEAPONS and 4 out of the 5 same linemen...the lone exception being Sammy Watkins. Watkins is nice piece to have, but I think if anyone can understand this, it's Bills fans....Watkins isn't the reason for the offensive explosion we are having. Smith has had 5 years of Reid, plus all the same weapons and he was the WORST RED ZONE QB in the NFL the last two years...and last year alone....44% completion pct to THESE GUYS? .....Alex Smith is a good QB, and he wasn't even close to putting up these kind of numbers with this coach and these weapons.....We'd be 1-2 at best with Smith right now. Mahomes IS the reason this is happening.....he's the difference between this year and last.....and if he was in Buffalo right now, you'd be 2-1. Lastly....I watch the plays he makes....sure there are a good number with guys wide open....but watch Mahomes as he turns his entire body, and head to the right, and the safety runs over that way, then Mahomes, in and instant, seemingly without even looking, snaps back to the middle and rips a dart to Kelce...who IS now wide open down the seam because Mahomes literally willed the safety away. Call me a homer, that's fine....but this isn't flash in the pan, jump ball garbage getting caught all game long (Like Watson last year) ....He's on another level.

Lol! Yeah, beating the Chargers and Steelers on the road to open the season is as creme puff as it gets in the NFL. He wouldn’t have 13 red and 0 I think, but he would be playing at a high level. Your line would look better. Mahomes gets the ball out quick. Some other points. None of the games have been shootouts. The Chiefs have built huge leads in all 3 and then kind of let off the gas. The other team gets a bunch of garbage yards trying to come back. The scores in all three are not indicative of how the games went. They aren’t close. some said Allen’s WR have dropped passes that would make his stats better. Umm....that’s happened in KC as well. some suggest that Mahomes has an advantage sitting for a year. I’d contend KC wasted his rookie year having him sit. He’s looked as good as he his now from the git go. A few few of you clearly have SEEN him play while others have seen the box score. Mahomes is a cyborg. Reads the field in a hurry and gets the balm out quick. Makes throws into tight spots, keeps eyes always downfield. He’s special. If you put Alex Smith back out there, he wouldn’t have 13 TD and 0 ints. Smith had all but one of the same guys last year and couldn’t perform anywhere close to this. Mahomes is is going to break the NFL TD record this year. im not telling you to be sad about it. Maybe later it could be that way but because you took Allen, you have that prospect and hope. Mahomes isn’t the comparison to make right now. A better measurement should be ALLEN vs Keenum. ALLEN bs Rosen and maybe Allen Trubisky. The first two are scenarios the Bills could have had this year. The Trubisky scenario is more appropriate because that is going to be the Bills path. Drafted a QB, then the following year, spend money on upgrades. These all are better benchmarks.

Happy Days...first, your assesment of Watson and mine are the SAME. Watson was a turnover machine last year that threw up a lot of junk that was hauled in by his talented WR. He hasn't changed..he is the exact same guy he was last year...just not as lucky with the garbage throws. He often doesn't progress through reads and if he doesn't like what he sees, he looks to run (wich he is good at, so not all bad but) ....A lot of folks got on that bandwagon last year...I was not one of them. I would like to take a little issue with your notion that Mahomes is throwing to wide open guys..sure, sometimes he is...but if you take the time to watch the film...he throws guys open. looks off the safety....it's incredible. ....and lastly....to be a downer....Mahomes and Allen are NOT the same prospect. Try as many of you may....Allen is inaccurate...he has always been inaccurate. Mahomes was a 63% completion pct thrower....and I have no idea where the turnover machine rep comes from..he threw 10 INTS in a million attempts his last year in college. Both had scouting reports that said footwork was poor. Wich is true...Mahomes and Allen both had very bad footfork in college. The other thing......Mahomes looked like a stud the very first preseason game, and all preseason he played in his rookie year...you could already see what Andy Ried saw in the kid the moment he threw a couple passes....the throwing guys open, the pocket pressence..the scanning of the field...it was evident. .....it's why alot of us got excited so quick....we could see the physical tools AND the mental part was close already. ....I know I'll get blasted by some here....Allen hasn't looked like that. I've watched the "every throw" from every game he has played in for your guys. He has a cannon...you can see that for sure...but he isn't accurate, and he does NOT throw guys open. Maybe it comes with more time, more timing with his recievers...I was impressed with how hard he is to take down....dragging Igram accross the field was pretty cool. That is a trait you can't teach...so there is that. No reason to call the kid a bust ...he's a rookie....but it should be clear that there is A LOT of work there to be done if he's going to make it.

You all know I am biased, but as far as Watson goes, the box score stats he put up last year were very good. He was chucking balls downfield and his talented WR were making plays on the ball. You might argue Mahomes is benefitting from throwing to talented targets, making plays on the ball. This is NOT the case. Watson is the same QB he was last year. He makes one read and either throws or looks to run. Last year when he did throw, he had a lot of bad passes get caught by his guys. He had a ton of turnovers last year as well. This year, he is the same guy, the luck on the bad passes just hasn’t been there, and he is still turnover prone. Not only do the box score stats shine for Mahomes, if you watch the film, he goes through reads, he stands in the pocket. He keeps his eyes downfield even as pressure comes at him, and he throws accurately and has touch at the appropriate time. when D coordinators go to look at the film they’ll see this and do what? Blitz? He has ice cold blood, he’ll stand tall and find the open man (he has insane rating under pressure). Drop 8? He’ll audible to a run or RPO. Mahomes on the range > Greatest show on turf.

I would like to point out that we had Alex Smith here already....behind the same line with the same weapons.....Mahomes isn't just succeeding because he is here...certainly it helps....but Mahomes is legit....Reid went to get him because he understood he needed someone who could drive the porche like a racecar and not like a minivan.

.....He threw pics in training camp that the MEDIA was conernced about. Andy Reid repeatedly said he was pushing the limits of the offense and wanted to see how much Mahomes could handle....they weren't worried about it all....it was party of training camp prep.

I think it would be good for the NFL if 5 or 6 teams actually came out as big ground and pound style teams and were successful. I miss the 90’s NFL where you had some ground and pound like KC, some west coast like SF, a couple of Run and Shoot teams, like Houston, and then you had the dynamic Bills and Cowboys. I remembervas a Chiefs fan, part of the week leading up to a game was talking about adjusting to the different style of offense you were facing in a given week. There was a lot of variety. Now teams either run a spread or some variation of a pass heavy west coast.

From afar, I thought Buffalo was going to be pretty good under Ryan...it looked like you all were about to turn the corner there for a bit....

As the lines have become small and quick...I've wondered if it would now be a good idea to go get a couple really big Jerome Bettis backs..big hulking fullback, and then a QB like Cam Newton..and run or RPO out of some big sets......these teams who stay in the nickel almost the whole game would get bowled over if they came up against something like that....I think if it happens it will almost be by accident....some coach who doesn't have a great QB, but somehow has a big TE or a bruiser type RB decides he has nothing to lose and goes double TE with an I formation because that's what he has....would be something to see for sure...

The article is directly related to the original poster and his thoughts on the vertical passing game disappearing etc.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/9/11/17844496/patrick-mahomes-ii-is-here-to-save-the-deep-ball-and-destroy-the-nfl

I did some research on this a couple years ago after we drafted Mahomes.....I took every QB who had started in a superbowl going back 20 years (this was a couple years ago so didn't include Foles) ....The reason I chose only super bowl starters is simply that if you are a QB and were good enough to be starting in a SB, that is about as good a baseline as I could come up with for what constituted a "good" or "Successful" QB. What I found was that of all the QB's on my list, over the course of their first 16 STARTS, the guys who sat, had a QB rating in those first 16 starts that was nearly identical to the guys who started right away. IF there were a benefit to sitting, then you would think that there should be some tangible difference in QB rating over the first 16 games....the idea being, all these QB made it to a super bowl, so they were good...so the benefit of sitting should have shown up when they got on the field having had more time to practice, more time to study, more mentoring. The numbers DO NOT show that at all. .......and I have posted this other places on this board....but IN SPITE of my own thoughts and my own research to back up that starting is better than sitting..Josh Allen is the rare case where I think actual, tangible improvement might have come from practice to work on some things and bad habbits that come from scrambling behind a bad line, and having inferior talent to work with..... On the other hand...Josh Allen might be perfect for the Bills because, having played behind a bad line in college, and had inferior targets to throw to....he should actually be able to come right in feel comfortable with the situation around him.....and throw for 45% completion pct. Good luck. The kid isn't ready.

I watched the "every Josh Allen pass" video from the Baltimore game. It's glaringly obvious that his arm is special. I won't go as far as to evaluate his decision making etc...in a game you are down by 40, the defense isn't doing much at that point, but what is crystal clear is that Allen can put alot of mustard on a football. I see they are starting Allen this week. I don't think it will go well because I don't believe he is ready....if they thought he was, he would have started week 1. In retrospect, the "process" to start a veteran while Josh sat.....is still the right call to me...but a big mistake was trading Tyrod....if you keep him and start him, your coach has ALOT more credibility to keep Tyrod at the helm because he is a seasoned veteran, coming off at least being at the helm as you made a playoff appearance. Peterman sucks....and now your coach has basically no choice but to throw Allen in because he'll lose the locker room if he runs Peterman back out there. Not optimal.

I don't need to do that....I've made that case all over this board...no need to do it again right now.... Consider this Bills fans.....IF you all believe in the process etc....then you really need to embrace what that entails...WAY too many of you (not all) haven't honestly considered what the current FO is having to do here.... 1. You are in salary cap hell. There simply isn't any magic that fixes that until you get past all this dead money. 2. You did in fact draft a QB who isn't ready to go out of the box. That's FINE for now as long as you understand that is what you have right now...and even if he is more ready than that, your roster isn't. 3. Your team made the playoffs in a year where you had a negative point differential and some stuff fell your way. Matt Cassel once led one of the worst Chiefs teams I have ever seen, to a division title using smoke a mirrors one year...the schedule broke just right, every bounce went our way...the underlying stats and the eye test told us all they were awful. The Bills are aweful, and they weren't that much less awful last year. Given that...at this point, you are on schedule. If you can just come to terms with the idea that THIS year is going to be miserable and it has to be that way to wait out the cap and to develope your QB, you'll be fine. in 2019, you'll be picking top of draft and have money to spend....AND if it is meant to be, then Allen will have become more NFL ready. You can then spend big on that roster to actually then find out if the QB you have is the man. This may or may not work but at MINIMUM, you have to let these guys undue the cap hell and see Allen through enough to determine if they got it right or not. Any new regime would have to carry through with the SAME plan for the first year at least anyway. Stay the course. Watch a lot of college football to see wich D Lineman you like this year...supposed to be a prime D Lineman draft coming up. Watch some youtubes of your reactions making the playoffs....it sucks, but the real progress can't begin until you get through this year. Good luck.

Someone had asked about the summary of the trade involving Mahomes etc...here it is....but it doesn't include any subsequent moves to get further up in this years draft for Allen. Chiefs Get : QB Pat Mahomes (R1 pick 10, 2017) Bills Get: CB Tre White (R1 pick 27, 2017) Pick 91 (R3 pick 91, 2017) packaged with other picks for trade up to 37. Rams used pick on S John Johnson. Bills go to (R2 pick 37, 2017) and select WR Zay Jones. Pick 21 (R1 pick 21, 2018) packaged with other picks for trade up to 16. Ravens traded out with Titans who used the pick on LB Rashaan Evans. Bills go to (R1 pick 16, 2018) and select LB Tremaine Edmunds. Esentially, after it was all said and done, it was Mahomes for Tre White, Zay Jones and Tre Edmunds more or less ish.