Zerovoltz
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Posts posted by Zerovoltz
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I am NOT saying or implying that Rosen is better or that is who you should have drafted. That isn't it. The whole idea is to have someone who isn't a washed up journeyman, on the roster, as insuarance against Allen not developing.
Walsh was drafted by Jimmy IN CASE Aikman couldn't cut it. It was an unusual situation that allowed Jimmy Johnson to draft/aquire TWO first round rated QB and have them on his roster at the same time....in case one busted, he had another real chance at having a guy who could get it done.
the Bills have that same rare chance if there were to aquire Rosen. This is NOT about who is better! It's about maximizing your odds.
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1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:
Maybe the Bills should trade for Mahomes instead?
Seriously.. hear me out...
Rosen is available. Mahomes is not available.
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1 minute ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:
What makes Rosen a "Blue Chip"? Yeah that Rosen 55% is blowing Allen out the water.
You aren't getting my point. I am NOT arguing that Rosen is better than Allen. I am suggesting that he is a high potential guy to have on the roster in case Allen busts....or if Allen wins out and is great, then Rosen, still having not gotten much game action, will be considered to have potential and becomes a nice trade piece. He is the rarest of QB insuarance policies...that is what I am tyring to say.
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2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
I have two things to say:
1. For what seems the millionth time if he had two less drops a game or two less throwaways he hits this supposedly magical 60%. So once and for all drop that nonsense.
2. You're a Chiefs fan. Go play on their board.
For the millionth time....if EVERY QB in the NFL had 2 less drops a game, their pct would also be higher. ....By this theory Josh Allen has had the unusual bad luck to have been around nothing but a bunch of butterfingers catching his passes since he was 12 apparently.
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I don't know or think that you "got the wrong Josh" they are both unproven high potential prospects at this point. I am advocating to get TWO of those guys on your roster instead of 1.
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Just now, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:
You apparently liked it.
I think it would be the right thing to do given the circumstances. I lurk around here and post often....I see how much most of you LOVE Josh Allen....and rightfully so...he's an exciting prospect, and your team just make several moves to upgrade the roster around him....and we haven't even gotten to the draft yet....Allen could be everything you all are still hoping for....but IF he doesn't turn out to be that guy....how often does a team ever have a chance to literally stock a BLUE CHIP prospect on the bench as an insurance plan? That is what Rosen could be for you. Allen is NOT a sure thing at all at this point. No matter how you break it down, he's gotta make a staggering improvement on that completion pct. His past suggests that isn't a given.
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.....In 1989, Jimmy Johnson, having just drafted Troy Aikman, 1/1, used what ended up being his 1990 first round draft pick in the 1989 Supplemental draft on QB Steve Walsh from the U. Some of you may remember Walsh was a big time college QB at the time. Johnson, when asked why he had done this said that QB was too important to get wrong. He needed to make sure he had one. No one really remembers much about it because Aikman won that competition, went on to win 3 Super Bowls...and Walsh was traded to the Saints for draft picks. ....keep that in mind....
As much as many of you have cherry picked the stats to pieces and conjured up every possible scenario to hide the blight of Josh Allens horrendous 52% completion PCT....the fact is, as exciting and athlietic as he is...Josh Allen is still a major question mark to everyone outside western New York (yes Bills fans...where you see a an ascending future MVP QB, the rest of the country sees a gifted athlete who isn't a good thrower)
Rosen is cheap. He can be had for a 2nd round draft pick.
While the Bills certainly still have plenty of spots to fill and could use that 2nd to do that....what if you had Rosen on hand in case Josh Allen can't get that Comp % up above 55? What if you had the next blue chip prospect already on your roster and under contract if it turns out you've rebuilt the roster, have all this young talent ready to go, and your QB turns out to be a bust? You wouldn't need to rebuild again...you'd have Rosen ready to go.
You might argure making such a move would damage Allens confidence. Maybe it would...but Aikman handled Johnson drafting Walsh, manned up and won that battle. If Allen has the fortitude he's said to posses around here...he'd compete.
If Allen did turn out to be what you all are hoping for, Rosen would remain something of an unknown blue chip prospect that had value and could be traded for something useful next year.
If the object of having a pro football team is to WIN...then getting QB right is worth making this kind of move. That's why Jimmy did it. Just something to think about....these kind of situations don't come around often.
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Jesus Christ. I jumped on this and kept saying Haskins was going 1 overall! Meant Murray, but main point was they were moving on from Rosen. Must have been drunk when I posted. I have “Murray” in all the other spots where I said they’d go QB 1/1.
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4 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:
If you have been watching the AAF, the 4th and 12 - instead of the onside kick - is truly an exciting option. Last year's onside kick rule change made it nearly impossible to recover an onside kick in the NFL, at least the proposed 4th and 15 gives a chance of a recovery.
This would benefit my team (the Cheifs) SUBSTANTIALLY....and I still think it's a horrible idea. If your team has proven itself over the course of 59 minutes or so in an NFL game, it SHOULD BE VERY HARD for the other team to win. Onside kick recoveries are VERY HARD. so be it. What isn't very hard for a team like the Chiefs...is to ask Pat Mahomes to complete a 15 yard pass? With Andy Ried? They'd have 3 or 4 of these drawn up and practiced just for this occasion...and they'd convert this MOST OF THE TIME. If your team has done enough to hold a team like the Chiefs and Mahomes down for 59 minutes and you are on the cusp of victory...do you really want to give the Chiefs an option to score 14 points in 1 minute to wipe out everything you did?
Football is fun enough, enteraining enough, high scoring enough and fair enough as it is. we don't need this.
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....How much improvement are you expecting?
These are all 1st season numbers.
Darnold 57.5%
L. Jackson 58.2%
M Trubisky 59.4%
D Watson 61.8%
Mayfield 63.8%
Allen 52.8%
Certainly Trubisky and Watson improved.
Trubisky 66.6% That is a nice jump of 7%
Watson 68.3% That is also a nice 7% Jump.
Trubisky was a 67.5% comp thrower in college....so it's expected that once he adjusted, this number would go up.
Watson was a 67.8% comp thrower in college....so it's expected that once he adjusted, this number would go up.
7% is an impressive leap forward...and is really at the high end of what could ever be expected.
If Allen were to jump 7%....he'd still be a 59% completion rate NFL QB. That would be a bottom 3 NFL QB.
Josh Allen was a 56% thrower over his college career.
You are expecting A LOT to happen here. 1. Allen getting a 7% increase as a best case scenario, still leaves him at the bottom of the pack of NFL starters.
And......a 7% increase would bring him to a pct that FAR EXCEEDS his college number....also not likely
You can tell me 100 different factors that go into Completion %, but ultimately, it's a reasonably good number to look and use to make a judgement.
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2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:
No it hasn't and now you're just being dumb. This thread was stated by an individual who did an exhaustive analysis of several young QBs, with the data indicating the supposed accuracy issues Allen has are overblown. We also discussed at length accuracy and precision, and discussed at length why completion percentage is not really an indicator of accuracy.
Go back through the thread and look at the dartboard diagrams that show what accuracy means. You can only define accuracy by how close a given throw is to the target. Ergo, if you don't know the exact target you can't really define how accurate a throw is. That is basic statistics and if you want to just ignore that it's your problem.
An example would be a throw over the middle Allen made to Clay. Clay had to reach for the ball and it was incomplete. The uneducated would say Allen was inaccurate. But Clay immediately got up and gestured it was on him, I.e. Allen put it right where he wanted it but Clay didn't get to the spot.
So again, do you want to have a serious discussion, or be silly? Either way I'll be watching UB so it'll be a while. Maybe you can spend time on your beloved Chiefs site for a while.
1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:I think it’s pretty funny hearing the KC fan say ‘supporting cast doesn’t matter’, myself. Nothing like Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, and Tyreek Hill for putting things in perspective.
I've seen this exact argument a 100 times here. I can't put it any better than having you look at Alex Smiths 2017 season. (wich was good) ....With Hill, Kelce and an NFL leading rusher in Kareem Hunt, Smith threw for a career high 26 TD, had a 67 PCT comp % and threw for over 4000 yards.
With the SAME supporting cast. Pat Mahomes put up 50 TD, 63 pct Comp % and threw for over 5000 yards. The Chiefs ran exactly NINE more total plays in 2018 than they did in 2017. The offense was the same. The coach was the same....Mahomes executed the whole thing THAT MUCH BETTER.
I can get you some GLARING 3rd down conversion stats and some GLARING red zone stats that were also WAY WAY better with Mahomes.
And to top it off....if you take Kelces stats away. OR Hills....Mahomes STILL would have led the NFL in TD passes by 5 and still been in the top 10 in yardage. Keep in mind they cut Hunt mid year...
He threw at least 1 TD to 12 different targets in 2018.
Sure Mahomes has a very good supporting cast.....but I would contend that he elevates WHOEVER he's with out there.
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14 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
Now you're being silly. Peterman threw a ton of picks. Do you want to have a real discussion about this or resort to silliness?
I'm being silly? basically this thread has devolved into
A. Any data and theories that support Josh Allen, the data is valid
B. Any data and theories that suggest Josh Allen has problems passin a football are not valid....
And since we can't know what Allen is seeing or thinking...we can't know how accurate he is?
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4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
The data you show does not really address the question. All you're doing is what others do: trying to use completion percentage to conflate with accuracy. There have been lengthy discussions about this in the thread; I encourage you to read them if you haven't.
Ultimately to gauge accuracy in any athletic endeavor, whether a football, basketball, bowling ball, golf ball, the only person who truly knows exactly what his target is is the one with the ball in his hands. Without that knowledge you can't really say for sure how accurate a single throw, etc. is.
? well then why cut Peterman? Only he really knew what the target was! Without that knowledge we can’t really say for sure how accurate any of his throws were!
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14 hours ago, Warcodered said:
That's decision making and while one of the most important attributes of a QB it definitely isn't the same thing as accuracy.
A fair point.
6 hours ago, oldmanfan said:I agree with this. But completion percentage has more to do with reading defenses, adequate protection, receivers running good routes and showing good hand and such than it does accuracy.
I’m not sure the data backs this up. When you look at QBs who had long careers and played for different teams etc, you can see from year to year they are who they are and that it is in fact NOT about the supporting cast. Look at Randall Cunningham. He had a great year on that 98 Vikings team. Completed 60.9 pct of his passes. He had an incredible supporting cast. Cunningham completed about 60 pct of his passes several seasons in his career, for different teams and coaches.
Joe Montana passed for 60.5 in his final two years playing for KC. With crap at WR and TE. He hit 61, 62, 60 in 84, 85 etc with great coaching and an incredible cast around him.
I know everyone is highly anticipating a big jump forward from Allen due to the roster upgrades....but data suggests that a QB is a lot more about who he is than who is around him.
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Forgive me if I missed it...but if you are going to go to all the trouble to account for every factor that determines "Accuracy" like you are trying to do....have you put any work into watching each play, and looking at the patterns ran, and wich one Allen SHOULD have chosen or what the design was?
You've put a great deal of effort into emphasizing that Allen tends to throw further downfield than most (true) and that longer throws are naturally more difficult (also true) and therefore, based on Allen throwing further downfield, we should EXPECT a lower completion pct.
This reminds of a the Alex Smith debates we used to have in KC in reverse. Smith had HIGH completion pcts because his depth of target was very shallow and therefore easier, so we would EXPECT a high completion pct.
IN BOTH INSTANCES, I submit to you that Smith AND Allen are not being EFFICIENT! It isn't accuracy (or it isn't ONLY) accuracy that is the problem here...I've seen people smarter than me post some breakdowns of plays the Bills ran last year and they point out the design, and where the ball should be going and why...and Allen doesn't make the right choice far too often....he tends to opt to hold it longer and want to throw deeper even when the better play is something less than the deepest route ran. Smith was the opposite...he would opt out of a well schemed route/design with a good target intermediate or deeper, and opt for the lesser play short.
Allen is still young and they've improved the roster around him....and some of his can still be coached out of him.....what still bothers me is that when Allen does opt for something shorter....he isn't especially consistent or good at shorter range targets....and that is something I am not sure coaching can fix.
Allens running ability can overcome some of this....that helps....but I still claim, as I have from the beginning, that Allen's "accuracy" or efficiency...or both....aren't going to ever be quite good enough to get the Bills where they want to go.
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21 hours ago, Poleshifter said:
Some interesting thoughts here, Zerovoltz. Thanks for the post.
Do you think Will Grier is a system QB? He looked good all season, but does Holgorson's system make him look good? He is never mentioned among the top 5 QB prospects, but Daniel Jones usually is.
I am not a 100% metrics guy....but I do like to use metrics in an evaluation ALONG WITH what I see with my eyes. in the Case of Grier....the thing that really stands out to me...the thing that separates him and makes him my No.,2 QB in this draft...is that he has a high completion pct beyond 15 yards. It's a good metric to consider when you are trying to see how well guys scan the field AND find the guy who is open or breaking open. This metric tells you he DID look down there AND that he clearly found a good target to throw to..AND he was able to make the throw to get it to that target. Grier was super at this! In my opinion, this one stat tells a ton about the QB. I'll go to battle in the NFL with a guy who can:
A. Scan the whole field
B. Identify the right target
C. Get the ball to that target consistantly when he has identified the correct downfield target.
You still need to win from the pocket in the NFL to win regularly. I think Grier is that guy.
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Pigging backing on some of the other comments here...
Murray is going 1/1...that's been apparent for a long time. And he should. he is the one blue chip prospect in this draft.
Keep in mind, this is supposed to be a very very good defensive draft....and lots of teams have settled their QB situations....
As Alphadawg mentioned..if paying attention the Broncos...you'd understand that Flacco is their QB...Elway says he's "entering his prime" and that they gave Flacco assurances they wouldn't be taking a QB high this year....they hired a 60 year old, defensive minded coach. That guy doesn't have the skill set nor the time to develop a rookie. EVERYTHING they've done this offseason is about NOT taking a QB at 10.
It would appear Dave Gettleman has doubled and trippled down on Eli Manning....and I can't see them using pick 6 on a QB either...not this draft...not on these prospects.
Miami just signed Fitz....I believe that did that with every intention of starting him this year while they see what develops next year.
My personal evaluation of this draft class is that Murray will be a start. Haskins isn't that good. Lock is going to be a bust...and even as I know that QB's are usually climbing up draft boards this time of year...I actually think Haskins and Lock are going to slide quite a bit. Jones too.
Given the depth of defensive talent...and the lack of legit prospects at QB...along with most teams having a guy...I can see ONE QB being gone by the time the Bills select. I think the Redskins are truly the one team that will take a shot at Haskins or Lock. If both are there when they pick, it will probalby be Haskins.
My thoughts on the class
Muarry = STAR
Haskins = could be ok in the right spot...he'd need talent around him....and even then, I just don't see it happening.
Lock = I am a HUGE Missouri Fan...and even I think Lock is going to be an NFL bust. his 40 speed does NOT translate to the football field. He doesn't make anticpation throws at all....his strength is deeper routes over the middle...he SUCKS..and sucks hard at anything outside the numbers...the deeper it is, the worse it is. Good gritty college QB....not an NFL QB in my opinion.
Jones, Thorson....etc...5th round or later project types who'll never amount to anything.
The ONE other guy in this class who I think would be a good NFL QB is Grier. He is UNDERATED...and some team will get him a bit later, and have a gem on their hands...he gets in the right spot and he'll make this a two QB class. He is the guy the Redskins should take but won't. Cincinnatti should be all over this kid in round 2.
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Looks like the plan is coming to fruition. Still going to be adding in the draft. The roster is shaping up fairly well.
I am looking forward to watching Buffalo this year. I’m either going to see Allen sling it all over, or I’m going to see Allen sling it over everyone again. Either way, it’s going to be exciting to watch because he does have an arm. He can run, and he is a competitor.
Prove me wrong Josh Allen! I’ve doubted you from the beginning. I have come in here over the past couple years to say why and troll a bit about Mahomes.
This is your chance to make me eat a lot of crow (hopefully just the wings with some hot sauce and celery).
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58 minutes ago, whatdrought said:
When are you guys cutting Mahomes? That’s someone we might be interested in...
errmm......you kind of had your chance at him already....and kind of passed.
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Some info for you folks to ponder as FA approaches
Justin Houston carried a 21 Million Dollar cap hit if he stayed with KC. Cutting him saved KC 14 million in Cap space with a cap hit of 7 million. Piror to his release today, KC only had 9 million in CAP SPACE. After his release (and the signing of Carlos Hyde) KC has about 22 Million in Space as of this post (there will probably be some more cap saving moves to come)
There had been talk KC would want to renegotiate Houstons deal....and I think in most years, Houston would have been motivated to do so instead of being released. However, this FA crop of EDGE rushers is WEAK. Houston and his agent aren't dumb. They know this and they know that there are about 6 or 7 teams with a staggering payload of cap space that will line up to sign him. The Jets and Colts are going to be right at the top of the list. Watch the Falcons as well. houston is from the Atlanta area. I'd like to have Houston back..he's a good run defender AND pass rusher...very solid..but he's been too injured...KC probalby helped ruin his health by having him play on a bum knee they knew was bad a few years ago.....because he was getting paid after that 22 sack season and they needed him out there. Anyhow...21 million is too rich for KC to stomach...and need the cap space.
As far as Morse goes....KC already signed Austin Rieter (C) to an extension during the year last season. Reiter started while Morse was out with concussions. Morse is a very good player when available...but he's not been available all that much the last few years. He has concussion problems. You don't need to worry about KC trying to bring him back...he'll have a market (Buffalo being one of the interested teams, if not THE most interested team) I'll miss a healthy Morse in KC. If he's healthy, you'd be getting one hell of a center.
Eric Berry will either be cut by this Friday or he'll be on the team. He is due a signifigant roster bonus this upcoming week. There had been talk of a post June 1 cut..but it is moot due to the bonus coming this week. EITHER WAY.....he is a huge dead money hit if released....his contract is untradable.....either he's cut this week or he isn't getting cut. either way, he is a big anchor on our payroll. Best we can hope for is that somehow, he gets healthy and returns to his old pro bowl level self. I don't think so...but we are kind of priced in until next off season when the cap hit is still substantial, but more palatable. He'll probalby be on the team for 2019.
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'for those hating or doubting on the deal......you have all been saying that the Bills needed to get a better surrounding cast for Allen....this move helps accomplish that...what other WR out there was in your plans? As long as brown shows up and is a good soldier (I realize that is part of the risk of this deal) then you've made a move that the fan base has been calling for and that the front office said it would be making. If this isn't an "upgrade" I don't know what is.
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It's from Rappaports real twitter....so looks like it's happening. congrats Buffalo.
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6 hours ago, Formerly Allan in MD said:
Isn't that what they said about the last "great" quarterback coming out of W. Virginia?
If you mean Geno Smith....then NO...this isn't what people were saying about him.
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Get your predictions on the board.
1. Kyler Murray - will go 1/1 to Arizona. I've been on it for a while. The only game difference maker in this class, goes to AZ to play for the coach that runs the system he excels in.
2. Wil Grier - That's right...not haskins, not drew lock....Grier....the only other QB in this class worth taking in round 1. Period. His tape is good....high completion PCT (yes that is a stat, and it matters.) coupled with his relatively deep depth of target says he reads the field well, AND makes good decisions when he sees something downfield. Good arm, good size, and good stats...very good tape. Some team will end up with a winner here.
3 Haskins.....I think Haskins won't be all the good..but he'd benefit on a team like the Giants that has a good young supporting cast...but otherwise, I don't see anything special here.
4. Drew Lock...I am huge MIZZOU fan...watched this kid play alot. Love him as my college QB...don't love him as a pro. Kid doesn't anticipate very well..and deeper throws outside the numbers are not very good. For being as measuably fast as he is...he does not run well nor have a good pocket feel. ineficient trying to escape pass rush. I don't see a lot of NFL success in his future.
5...Everyone else.
It's really a 1 and 1/2 man class. Murray....and Grier...if he lands somewhere that he can get on a field....I still think Mason Rudolph will show well when he finally plays, but stuck behind Big Ben in pittsburg.
Unpopular Take. The Bills should trade for Rosen
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I'd be ALL for it! Mahomes could bust an ankle or shoulder in a car wreck...Rosen is cheap and can be had for a 2nd. I'd be ALL GOOD with KC doing this.