Zerovoltz
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Posts posted by Zerovoltz
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3 minutes ago, ChevyVanMiller said:
I guarantee that 3 QBs go in Rd 1. Stone cold lock. ?
It's fluid enough right now that I wouldn't either bet for or against what you are saying here.
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7 minutes ago, NewEra said:
Grier lol
Yes, Grier.
3 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:I really don't know how I'd respond if Hockenson was the Bills pick at 9. He good, but is he #9 good? Mixed emotions for sure.
Kinda like watching your mother in law back off a cliff in your brand new Mercedes Benz.
I can certainly understand this view.....Having Kyle Williams retire means there is a spot and need for someone like Ed Oliver...and that would certainly make a ton of sense. I went with Hockenson because I think your coaching staff knows their D is solid...they need to get Allen all the support they can...because the coach and GM's jobs depend on Allen failing or succeeding....not if the D is ranked 5th or 15th. Given that everyones future success or failure is riding on Allens arm....I figure the choice is Hockensen.
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My thoughts on this draft.
1. This a ONE QB draft. Kyler Murray is it. (it could be 2 IF Grier ends up in a good spot) I love Murray and I like Grier. The rest of the QB's in this class are garbage. Grier would need to land in a place like Cincinnatti where he'd have a chance to supplant the starter in order for this to become a two QB class. Unfortunately for Grier, I get the impression that a team like Indy or Carolina would take him and he'll ride the bench behind a well established starter.
2. This draft has a TON of DL blue chip prospects at the top.
3. Combine the idea here that it's a one QB draft, and that the blue chips will be available into the 20's and that means your going to have a draft with little or no trading at the top. With no QB to go up for, none of the teams like Washington or Miami will be inclined to pay a price to move up for the 2nd QB in this draft who is probably every bit as good (or bad as the case may be) as the 8th QB. Also, if you can get a Blue chip defender at 20, why trade up to 8, 9 etc? The market conditions aren't going to be there for teams to want to pay to move up.
4. This all means the Bills and others up at the top will be staying put and making a selection. And so, with the 9th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Buffalo Bills select TJ Hockensen, TE, Iowa. My thought here is the Bills believe in their defense and their scheme. By getting involved in an attempt to trade for Antonio Brown, the front office has shown they are all in on getting Josh Allen weaponry. The Bills do not have a weapon at TE on their roster. Hockensen would start from day 1 and make an immedeate impact.
5. The Giants won't take a QB in round 1. The Broncos won't take a QB in round 1. The Dolphins won't take a QB in round 1. The Redskins won't take a QB in round 1 (because I think they will be trading their pick to Arizona for Rosen) In fact, after Murray, the other QB's are going to slide down the board....again, based on my assesment that these QB's suck, coupled with the blue chippers into the 20's...no reason to draft a flawed QB high when you can get the same flawed guy in round 4. I wouldn't be entirely surprised at all if only Murray goes in round 1.
6. Round 2 will see several WR that will prove to be good value selections.
Yes, I know you all don't care for the Chiefs fans perspective, but this is high quality analysis and I provide it for free.
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I read the leaves differently. This draft, being deep on defense, isn’t going to have any teams trying to move up early. Couple that with my opinion that outside of Kyler Murray ( who I love) this QB class is garbage. I predict no trade up for QB in round one.
that said, I believe the Bills stay at 9 and take something on offense, and I’ll go further and say that you go Hockenson at TE.
Get Allen every possible weapon you can in the arsenal. Tyler Kroft is not a weapon.
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Just now, Jay_Fixit said:
Your tweet embedding is as good as your thread creating.
lol....so uh....how do you embed a tweet here?
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If I were the Bills...and had the cap space you all do...I'd totally be all over Duke as a trade target....If KC had any room...I'd want him in KC.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Of the 62 RBs w at least 250 early down rushes+targets the last 3 years, Duke Johnson ranks:<br><br>#2 in yards/play (5.8)<br>#3 in explosiveness<br>#7 in success rate (52%)<br><br>Only 2 RBs rank in the top-10 in all 3 metrics: Johnson & Alvin Kamara.<br><br>Duke Johnson is a weapon & a solid asset. <a href="https://t.co/0ij68lSVkw">https://t.co/0ij68lSVkw</a></p>— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) <a href="https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1112866590381494272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 1, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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1 hour ago, aceman_16 said:
MAYBE the Chiefs jump at this opportunity!!
Maybe read the whole thread and you’ll see where it was discussed already.
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1 minute ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:
Bottom Line: Bills got their QB; the back-up Barkley just signed a 2-year extension and is of more value to the development of Allen and the overall team than Rosen would be; Rosen would just be a distraction. The front office would lose all credibility doing this, showing they have no confidence in Allen (which we know is not true) and by blowing a 2nd round pick when they could have gotten another young WR, DT, TE, etc. It's not going to happen, time for this thread to DIE.
This is a perfectly rational counterpoint.
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Just now, Wsam4031 said:
he cant be had for a 2nd. They were already offered a 2nd and turned it down. They want a 1st and will probably get it. Not hanks we have the better Josh already
4 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:So you agree that when Mahomes becomes the next RG3 you should have another solution?
The answer to Which backup QB would I rather have? Chad Henne or Josh Rosen? The answer is Rosen. If for some reason Mahomes gets hurt, sucks whatever the reason, then I would love to have Rosen as my next man up. As of today, he is still a well thought of prospect with potential. The Chiefs current back up, Chad Henne is NOT.
if Allen were to bust, get hurt, etc, the question here is would you want Matt Barkley or Josh Rosen as the next man up?
That is is what the thread is about. The Arizona Cardinals, are about to put Rosen on the market (they should take Murray and keep Rosen, but they aren’t).
It it presents an interesting set of circumstances where a QB with a potentially high cieling, will be available at a relatively low price and inexpensive rookie contract
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13 minutes ago, SoTier said:
- This isn't 1989 ... in case you didn't notice.
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The Cowboys essentially traded the #1 overall pick in 1990 (they crapped the bed again) for the opportunity to draft another QB at the end of the 1989 draft who ended up a career backup, who in a 10 year career, was active for all of 80 games, threw 40 TDs and 50 INTs. How, exactly, is this a move to emulate????
- With the salary cap, no team can realistically afford to use so much cap space on 2 unproven first round QBs from the same draft class for "insurance".
- How do you know that "Rosen is cheap"? Except for speculation by media sports mavens, there's no indication that Rosen is even on the market.
.....if Jimmy Johnson knew Aikman would be the man then he of course in hindsight wouldn’t have also aquired Walsh. He didn’t know what he had. He got both with the idea that one of them would hit.
With the rookie pay scale, it’s actually never been easier to afford two of these guys at once.
Rosen will likely fetch a second round pick. That is cheap for a QB that still has “potential”.
3 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:Interesting take. But realistically, I think it's a better bet for the Chiefs should probably pick him up. If Allen sucks, the Bills won't win any games and can draft a QB early in 2020. But If it turns out that Mahomes doesn't have the stones to beat Brady in a playoff game, you guys have too much talent on that team to be able to draft a decent QB to replace the Mahomes. He could turn out to be the next RG3, a one year wonder. What then?
.......another person who clearly hasn’t read the thread. I DO want KC to get him.
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8 minutes ago, Max Fischer said:
Is this actually true? That guy almost singlehandedly destroyed another board. Either a skilled troll or . . .
go back a couple pages....I'm not Jeffismagic or crayon eater or anyone else.
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6 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:
By this logic - the Chiefs should be all over Rosen then because you still do not know how Mahomes is going to handle one good year. He could come back and with the loss of Hunt and potentially Hill - really struggle in year 3. The value is there and Rosen could be a good fit in the Reid system.
If you had read the whole thread...you'd see that I have advocated for KC to do this.
6 minutes ago, Buddo said:I can think of one reason to do it, and that would be to stop the Patsies from trading for him. He could be a natural successor to Brady, and might be able to run their current offence fairly successfully. I would also suggest that he is likely to be the ‘type’ of QB McDaniels can work with best.
Note, I am not for a single minute advocating this be done, but simply as a viable scenario for it having some value. Tbh, I can see it as the sort of thing evil Bill would be quite prepared to do, in our situation. Prevent one of your immediate adversaries, from improving themselves.
i also think that it would be extraordinarily unfair on Rosen to do that.
The Patriots are one of the teams rumored to be very interested.
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Just now, longtimebillsfan said:
Given what you said about Josh Allen, Using the same evaluation with blinders on, what did Rosen do in 2018 to make you think he will be any better or as good as Allen?
There isn't a single word in my original post or any of my responses saying that Rosen would be better than Allen or as good. Nothing Rosen did in 2018 suggests much of anything about his future. He may well bust out. He may go on to be good. He's still a guy with "potential" at this point. Just as Allen is a guy with a lot of potential. Neither have become good QB's in the NFL yet. The entire point of this whole thing...AGAIN...is not to say Rosen is better or that you should have drafted Rosen....the point is that a QB who was rated as a first round talent, who has played one year in the NFL, and whose future potential is still difficult to gage, and who many still feel has high end potential and talent...is available to everyone in the NFL right now. My suggestion is that this is a rare and unusual set of circumstances...and gving the 1989 Cowboys as an example of a team who also found themselves in the unusual situation that allowed them to aquire TWO first round rated QB's in the span of a year or less, they did so....as Jimmy Johnson explaned...becasue geting the QB right was too important. The Bills could give themselves a better chance at aquiring said franchise QB, if they had TWO first round rated talents on the roster...if one busted or was injured etc....you'd have anohter guy with POTENTIAL on the roster already who isn't costing much.
Most of you are taking this as an anti Allen post...it is not....it is a post about QB development strategy at time when there is a guy available who ordinarily wouldn't be.
Allen may well become "the man" you'd trade Rosen for what you could get. Jimmy Johnson ended up trading Walsh later on for a 1st and 3rd. Allen may bust. If he did for some reason....you'd be turning your franchise over to Barclay or some other journeyman. Your fan base has seen enough journeyman don''t you think? Im' simply suggesting that there is an oppertunity to execute a contingency plan unlike anything we've seen in decades.
There are a TON of threads here debating Rosen Vs Allen..that isn't what this is about. When you can look at it as a possible insurance plan, instead of a debate on wich Josh...you might see the point.
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31 minutes ago, VW82 said:
I think we're a season away from making this type of move. The part you haven't really considered is what message a trade like this sends not only to Allen but the rest of the team. Right now Allen is the guy that Bills are building around. There's a common goal of seeing him improve in his role and become a franchise guy. Trading for Rosen would shake the faith. You bring up Steve Walsh but that was 30 years ago. People are different now. Smarter. These kids see through the BS. If you send the message that you're giving up on one of your main building blocks before he's proven unworthy you risk cracking the foundation of the culture if you're trying to build.
I did address this in the thread...and I can agree there is some validity to this....my coutner point is that Aikman probalby didn't think it was cool for Jimmy to bring in Walsh. Aikman didn't complain or whine about it...he competed and won. I'd like to think that Allen, who is a professional athlete being handsomely paid...would also compete...If Allen folded up into the fetal position because Rosen arrived on the scene then Allen was never your guy to begin with probably.
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6 minutes ago, Nelius said:
Is this the Savior Edwards/Peterman guy? Just revamping his schtick after like 10 long, boring years?
No...I'm Zerovoltz from KC. I'm not Jeffismagic. I don't actually post here that much. I do my actual TROLLING over at Orangemane.com. I enjoy giving Broncos fans crap....I LIKE you folks here. Over there I troll away..they let me join their fantasy leauges.....I drafted Mahomes..won their money...have made and won some other bets with them...and generally just give them crap. https://www.orangemane.com/forum/orange-mane-discussion/orange-mane-central-discussion/20009-
My name is Gary. I am originally from KC, but live in the DFW area of texas now. My wife is pretty easy on the eyes. Here is a picture of me and Poncho Billa at the 2018 Draft down here (Jerry Dome) and here is my facebook page.... https://www.facebook.com/gary.hamilton.714
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Just now, Buffalo86 said:
A welcome bit of logic to the thread. At the same time, teams don't typically earn the #1 pick by making all the right decisions.
Again....Arizona should keep him.....since they aren't though....and since he is available....in my opinion....he would make the ideal insuarnce policy (INSUARANCE POLICY!) to have in case Allen doesn't become what you hope for. It is rare that such a prospect would be available to have as a hedge in such a case. Jimmy Johnson...who knew what he was doing clearly.....had this same strategy form the beginning of his run with the Cowboys. He gave himself the best odds to have that franchise guy. I can't stress enough...I am not arguing you drafted the wrong Josh....or that Rosen is better. I am NOT making that case here. I am pointing out that this is a very unusual chance to increase your odds to find "the man". Once Allen becomes the man...oyu trade Rosen....or if Allen doesn't, you have Rosen on hand to try. You already know Barclay is NOT the man....Anderson is NOT the man....
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2 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:
The basic argument that Rosen can be had for cheap has merit. However, if that was the only criterion, why shouldnt Arizona keep him as insurance instead of trading him for pennies on the dollar? The obvious reason he can be had for cheap is that there can only be one Queen Bee to a hive!!
You cant have the cake and eat it too mate. Either say that Rosen is a good backup in which case Arizona should keep him rather than trade him to the Bills for peanuts. Or say, there can only be one King and that is why Arizona is going to let him go for cheap which means that the Bills (with Allen as the unquestioned king) should not acquire him even if he can be had for cheap.
I said earlier on in this post somewhere that the Cardinals SHOULD keep him and draft Murray for this very reason. If I was on a Cardinals board, I'd be advocating they hold on to him. ....that would be very similar to the Cowboys taking Aikman then Walsh and keeping both until 1 emerged.
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Just now, GoBills808 said:
How's this for an unpopular take- Mahomes will never have a season like the one he just had again.
You'd probalby be right....it's only been done 3 times ever....wouldn't be likely he'll top 50 TD again. Brady and Manning only had one 50 TD season in their careers....would be unrealistic to expect Mahomes to do it again...ever.
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Just now, Logic said:
It is so weird to me that you continue to stick around and talk Bills football. Isn't there a good Chiefs forum somewhere?
And for your one created thread in the past several months, you chose to make a topic featuring the above bolded lines. I mean...sticking around just to troll us about our quarterback?
It seems like once the Bills traded down with the Chiefs, allowing KC to take Mahomes, you gained this vested interest in the Bills and seeing how the trade turned out for both teams. Now that the hay is in the barn and we see that Mahomes is an elite talent, you continue to want to stick around and...gloat? Chime in every now and again about how the QB WE ended up with stinks? Point out in new and different ways that the Chiefs won the trade? What do you want from us?!
I just really don't understand why you're here.No. There isn't. (many KC fans are extreme homers...and aren't capable of inteligent or civil discourse.)
Yes. I came here after the trade....gloat? eh...probably some....troll....sure...but I've really enjoyed this place...lots of knowledgable passionate fans...I participate in some of the non QB threads here. I am ROOTING for Allen. I want the Bills to have overcome the metrics nerds and for Allen to succeed. I like him....he's fun to watch. He seems like a great kid. It's been interesting to observe and discuss with many of you....
Just now, The Red King said:Many? Which 'many'? Who out there still thinks he has high end potential after last season?
The Cardinals will get a 2nd for him....lots of teams still think he does.
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3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:
Going to leave JUST ONE legitimate thought in this thread: if you seriously think the Chiefs are good enough personnel-wise, at present, to spend a 2nd on a backup because 'he's cheaper' than what you've got now in Henne...after losing Houston, Berry, and Ford from that already paper soft defense...you're in for a very sad 2019.
...it doesn't matter that he is CHEAPER...that's just a fact that goes with it....at this point...he still is considered by many to have high end POTENTIAL. That is the point.
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Just now, DCbillsfan said:
If Rosen is so good then why is he available? The Cards gave up a 3rd and a 5th to take him 10th overall and now supposedly want to trade him less than a year later.
Nobody knows what Beane thought of Darnold or Mayfield but we know he liked Allen over Rosen. So far he's been right.
If I were the Cards...I'd draft Murray AND KEEP Rosen. They are going to trade him and move on....they view Murray as a generational talent who is better than Rosen.....if you can get a guy who you think can be a generational talent...you get that guy.
1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:The fact that he was traded would mitigate future compensation. I'll grant you that. However, the Saints gave up a first AND a 3rd for Steve Walsh, who was beaten in a competition by Troy Aikman. Let's say Allen is awesome and Rosen looks great in mop up duty. There is definitely a scenario in which a team could get MORE for Rosen than they'd currently give up.
Let me say for the record that while I'm not sold on Allen, I like him FAR more than Rosen. I do find the idea of a contingency plan intriguing. It's not going to happen, so it really doesn't matter.
I really appreciate your viewpoint on this.
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1 minute ago, 17years&waiting said:
I'll take the bait...Do you believe that a 2nd round pick is really well spent on a back-up QB who looked VERY shaky last season? With all the defensive talent that KC lost this offseason, I think a 2nd round pick would be a poor use of resources. Same for the Bills: Barkley/Anderson will do find as back-up QB's.
In a year or two, when Rosen has fully flamed out of the NFL, he can spend all his time sitting in a hot tub wearing hateful hats.
If you think Rosen = Barkley or Anderson, then NO...it wouldn't be worth the investment. I would do it for a 2nd because in the case of KC...Rosen > Henne...and cheaper. If god forbid, Mahomes had a career ending injury or somehow busted out...then Rosen would at least be a better chance to become "the man" Henne isn't going to ever be that...Henne, Barkley...those guys are out there every year. Rosen isn't. Rosen may well suck, but as of now, he's still looked at by many (including me) as someone with potential.
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Just now, GoBills808 said:
You are never, ever, EVER getting a 2nd for a QB who was traded after one year and then rode the bench for the next 3.
You should know by the end of 2019 what you have in Allen. You'd then either move on from Allen or move on from Rosen. He is a cheap insurance policy, that you get cash back on when you don't need him anymore if you don't use him.
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Zerovoltz Draft Analysis
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
If a MOD would move this to the appropriate location, that would be fine.