Zerovoltz

Need some kind of offense/QB efficiency rating that means more toward a winning (or losing) performance. The current metrics aren't really very good at telling that story.

Ok....first...I must have misunderstood what you were saying with Mahomes....so, let's dismiss that...no one here (besides me) wants to discuss Mahomes. Regarding Allen, I had mentioned elsewhere I think in this long thread, that regarding drops....I have seen Allen throw some passes that you might be grading as catchable that I think are actually really tough to catch....what I mean is that Allen will throw a very high velocity, NON tight sprialed knuckleball from time to time and often, not right on the numbers.....that is a ball that is really hard to catch because it isn't going to cleanly fit into the hands of the reciever and it is very likely going to need to be aided by being brought into the body. When that ball is off the nubmers, it's often off the hands, and into should pads, helmet or just plain through the hands. Someone tried to say guys field punts that are wobbling like this....and that is NOT the same thing at all. Also....I do see you try and make a call on drops, then add those as catches to see what that brings the PCT up to.....1. It's still low. 2. Even teams that drop at a lower rate...if you adjusted everyone, you'll never come close to dressing up Allens completion numbers to something top half of leauge. You kind of negate the idea that adding better targets is going to make Allen an upper echelon QB when it comes to Comp %....your drop pct add on proves that even if you had guys on your team that never dropped anything, Allen isn't completing passes at top half rate. I'm not arguing that Allen can't be a winner (clearly, the Bills are winning in 2019 with Allen) but he is NOT the guy that raises the talent around him...you might even say that at times with his poor ball placement, he negates the talent around him wiht lost YAC etc. .....but makes up for hit with his incredible escapability and running. ......The Bills are 1-5 this year against teams who started a QB with a higher QB rating than Allen.....Dak Prescot was the win.

.....Come on Transplant....they lost that game. After all the work you've done to make the completion % number whatever you want it to mean, you are going to tell me that a 23/36 for 352 4TD and 2 INTS with a 110 passer rating.....is an L BECAUSE of the QB. and one of those INTS was a hail mary attempt at the end of the 1st half. Patrick Mahomes has played the NE defense 3 times in his career. He is 65/107 for 930 Yds, 8 TD passing 3 INTS (one a hail mary at half) NO QB in the Belichick/Brady era has anything remotely close to that per game average against them. Josh Allen has also played the Pats D 3 times in his career. H is 46/95 (under 50%, ton of drops I guess in all 3 games right?) for 578, 3 TD, 5 INTS and 1 rushing TD. Even if you took out the drop% and added those completions...he's under 50% still. 2 of Allens games were this year....when the Pats are slowing down. 2 of Mahomes were last season VS higher level Pats teams.

??? Mahomes put up 40 points in that game and NE had the ball last, kicking the go ahead field goal with no time left to win 43-40.....Mahomes didn't carry his team that day? He was the only reason the team was in it. Sitting here bored at work.......i was wondering how many games do you really need to see before you get a good idea of who the player is. so what I did was started looking at the first 16 STARTS of a QB's career and then compared that to their career averages to see how much deviation there was from those first 16 games to what they produced/became over a career. MOST of the guys I looked at...it was remarkable who little deviation there was from the averages of the 1st 16 games, to the averages for the whole of their careers. Joe Flacco for example...you can take his rookie year, and those stats don't deviate much at all from his career averages...he was who he was going to be after 16 games. There were a lot of guys I looked at who had similar showings.....Vinny Testaverde, Chad Pennington, Boomer Esiason, Don Majkowski....and many many more....just didn't deviate all that much from the guy they were in their first 16 games. Most guys tended to improve their Yards Per Game by 30-40 yards over their rookie years....the INT pct surprisingly, for many, went up overall, as they progressed. The Completion PCT didn't vary a whole lot....typically about a 3% incresase over the first 16 games compared to the whole of the career. Some guys that were drastic outliers...Tom Brady...INT pct went way down, YPG went way up. Elways completion pct improved only modestly, but he was throwing for many more yards per game later on in his career. Alex Smith might be the biggest improvement from 16 games in, to whole career that I looked at....he was absolute trash 16 games in....if he hadn't been a 1/1, his career would have, and should have ended a very very long time ago....but his later career stats really pick way up....took him a long time to blossom into something decent I guess. Peyton Manning is another one whose first 16 wern't very good..but he improved accross the board substantially after that..His second set of 16 games was much closer to what his career averages would be, with the exception of completion PCT. Manning really got ALOT more accurate as time went on. A few guys got progressively worse from their 16 starts onward.....Rick Mirer one of the better known QB's who came in hot, and then flamed out. People might mis remember Dan Marino a bit....his rookie year was 83, when he started 9 games and was quite good....it was 84 that he had his big record breaker year...so the first 5 games of that, along with is rookie year....Marino was mostly on his career averages when compared to his first 16 games overall. Matt Cassel was another one I looked at....his career trajectory...DOWNWARD....was interesting because his first 15 starts were with the Randy Moss patriots...the team that had gone undefeated in the regular season the year before. Cassel went 11-5 with that group and had decent numbers....never to be repeated. Bubby Brister actually was a little better to start than he ended up being over the course of his career....never posting good numbers..they just got worse over time. While there are exceptions both where guys show out better than their first 16 and some show out worse....A TON of dudes....are who their first 16 starts say they are. Just wanted to share this because while there are exceptions....starting to get into the territory of where Josh might be who Josh is gonna be. Tags: None

QBR: Mahomes 77.7 That is 2nd in the NFL Joe Flacco 48.6 Josh Allen 48.5 I am SURE I'd take Allen over Flacco, but the QBR isn't digging Josh.

....I thought today would be the day the Bills would announce their presence as an upper echelon team with a signature win and vanquish a long time foe. I enjoy watching Allen play. I enjoyed watching him play today. He continues to be very entertaining to watch and you can see the toolset on display. At some point, you have to call it what it is...super athletic kid, that can make some big plays, but he is always going to be erratic....that's just the way it is. He's a roller coaster ride from play to play and from game to game. .....I'd like to think the Bills can defeat the Texans, because that's who you've got...that's locked in now. I'll be rooting for Fitzmagic and the dolphins to wreck New Englands first round bye ..... would have been cool if it happened today..Miami has been a thorn in the Pats side many times...maybe they got one left....not counting on it...so...... ....KC will face either the Steelers or Titans at Arrowhead...we will win that...and we will go to NE and finish the job. I'm counting on you Buffalo to handle the Texans and then going into B-more and winning that game. We'll see you at Arrowhead for the AFCCG. GO BILLS! (and Chiefs!)

No. I’ve said Bills are my 2nd team on here a while back

Come on Bills...let's go. I got playoff tickets for whatever home playoff game KC has, and man do I want that to be after a bye VS the Patriots in KC. Hope you guys win everything you possibly can unless it's VS Kc...If KC were to be eliminated etc....The Bills are my 2nd fav.

Not a bad list. I'd alter (as others have suggested) that the Jets have thier guy, and even though we still have games to play, you can pencil in Joe Burrow for the bengals. I think the Titans are going to pay Tannehill. I agree Ben has gas in the tank. One more note....Denver is going to head to 2020 with Drew Lock....that may or may not be a good idea at this point, but they aren't going to be in the QB market....Lock would have to be so incredibly bad these last 2 games....I don't see that...they'll move forward..not unlike Buffalo with Allen. That leaves Chargers. - Rivers is done. NE - Brady is pretty much done, although if he plays again next year...I'd think it would be in NE. Indy - I agree, Brissett isn't a long term answer, but I'd guess he gets another season. Oakland - Because of how it all plays out, I don't think Carr will be replaced this offseason, but he's done being the undisputed starter. Gruden will have guys in to compete and could replace Carr....I don't see the Raiders really in a place to draft a guy this year. The good news for Buffalo is that it appears you have a solid team and even if the QB isn't elite....you can win with him and he can make some plays in the clutch. That gets you places. Should be a good era for a while for you guys. Last....I am rooting like hell for a Bills win this week! KC gets the 2 seed if you all can get it done. (I think you can!) ....and that may lead to us seeing each other in the playoffs....would be fun! Might be the first of many Allen/Mahomes postseason meetings. We'll see!

Queston for Transplant....or anyone else.....I haven't gotten to watch much Bills football this year...I did see a good bit of the game tonight VS PIT. On an Allen INT, I noticed that he threw a high velocity, flutter ball that wasn't that well placed (slightly behind and maybe a bit elevated) on the target. That fluttering hardball would be hard to catch if it was spot on, but it made for what would have been a very hard catch (I think for Brown) and it deflected off him and was picked. ...so my question is....regarding drops....is this due in part because Allen doesn't always uncork a tight spiral? does he throw knucklers at his guys often like that? That kind of throw can't be that easy to grab. Just wondering.

Just going over scenarios....Indy would need an improbable win VS the Saints tommorrow, then a few more things to fall their way.....they are all but done. Cleveland would need to win out (highly unlikely with a game VS the Ravens) or they are done. In reality, the most likely opponent for the Bills is going to be the Texans. Even if Texans L next week but win at Home VS TEN, they get the 4. Unless Buffalo goes WW and NE goes LL, then Buff gets the 5. Seems the most likely matchup is Buff @ Hou. Buffalo could host with the 3 seed if KC goes WW, Buff goes WW and NE goes LL. If you had the 3, you'd almost certainly host TEN or PIT.

Congratulations! Blowing my awful prediction (7-9) out of the water. Maybe see you all at Arrowhead later?

NOOOOOOO!!!!!!

That isn't me...but uh....that's not too far off as far as what I look like....ugh

A quick note on the Pats this week.....They are going to win because Cincy is going to want to stay locked into that 1/1 Joe Burrow draft pick. I'd love to NE to lose this week as well...and Mabye Andy Dalton will play really hard to keep his replacement from being drafted...but I don't think so. On the other hand, KC just needs ONE more NE loss and that 2 seed will be ours....I'm looking at you Buffalo.

......in most years yes....but not this one (Man, I need some good crow recipes because you all are making me eat ALOT of it. ugh.)

I've been playing around with Playoff machine....there is a scenario where Buffalo wins the EAST, and ends up the 2 or 3 seed. Buffalo loses to Baltimore. Buf Beats New England. NE Loses to KC and on other team....I have them losing to Miami in this case...If KC wins out in that scenario. Buffalo is the 3 seed, and NE is the 5. Or same scenario and KC loses once. Buffalo is the 2, KC is the 3. Still so many possibilities. I've mostly been doing KC....and so with that in Mind, KC can still get the 1 seed if KC wins out. Baltimore loses twice. And New England loses Twice (including KC head to head next week) That isn't very likely...but would be a little closer with a Buffalo win VS Balt. KC does have decent path to the 2. KC wins out. (KC @NE, Home VS OAK, DEN, CHARGERS) And Buffalo beats NE but loses one other game.....doesn't matter wich one....or NE simply loses to KC and one other game, along with ANY scenario where the Bills lose one other game. Still very very muddy waters. Very exciting though.

.....not especially good...but I have a wager that I am winning over at orangemane, that will cover this wager if I happen to lose. I also don't want to rain on the parade you guys are having and deserve to have. I very badly want you to beat Baltimore next week. Hell, I'd like to see you guys win your division. Maybe it could still happen if New England loses on the road at houston, KC wins in NE and you guys beat them at their place.

I don't have a revisionist take. I thought Allen would suck. I have doubted him for a long time. I started to come around on him this year as I have seen improvement. If you want me to eat the crow...that's fine, I'll eat it... not the first time. I don't hide from my bad takes. I post them so that I can either brag when I am right or eat it when I'm wrong. I've said here for a long time that I hoped I was wrong about Allen because, I enjoy watching him play...I think he's fun to watch. I wanted the upitty analyitcs people to be wrong...even as love analytics...it annoys me that some of the math folks take the math at 100% and forget that math should inform a HUMAN decision. I don't know what else you want me to do....I'm already celebrating along with you.

I'm here..been posting here and there the last few days. GREAT WIN!

5.....technically 6. I am on this board, Orangemane.com (Broncos) Jetsnation.com, ChiCitySports, Brownsboard and I am a member of Chiefsplanet.com but have never posted there. I joined this board, the Browns board, and Chi City sports to kind of follow along with the fan bases of those teams that had some involvement in drafting a QB or trading out of 10 for KC to draft Mahomes....and kind of follow along to see how things went...what people would say, and how things changed over time. I joined the orange mane to torment and troll the Broncos fans...I hate that team. I joined Jets nation mostly to just see what they had to say in comparing Allen and Darnold. Over the course of time, I post a ton on the Broncos site, but this is where I spend the 2nd most time. At first I got a kick out of the folks opinions here about the trade, then it was kind of interesting to see many have remorse over passing Mahomes....then leading up to the 2018 draft, seeing everyone debate on who the Bills should take...and frankly, MOST of this board didn't want Josh Allen...then having drafted him....some being mad..some backing him because he was Bill....then the debates on completion pct, and coaching and adding pieces to the team for 2019 and the improvement in Allen. It's really been cool to see it all and participate a little here and there. Eat some crow....etc....good fan group here...really lively place...lots of well educated fans. Since joining, I met Poncho Billa at the 2018 draft....I bought my 7 year old son a Bills jersey. the Bills are my second favorite NFL team now.....just not when playing KC. I used to post on the Chicago Board some..but rarely do now....Mitch Trubisky crashing and burning has caused that fan base to melt down...they are all sad. For a while they thought they had something. I only ever posted a token post here and there on the Jets and Browns boards pertaining to Mahomes back closer to the time when he was emerging last year.

I live in the Dallas Ft Worth Metroplex. .....the HEAT is way up on Garrett now. That could be a good or bad thing. Garretts teams have tended to respond well when they've been backed into a corner and Garretts job seems to be on the line. One of the two teams is going to get their first win VS a team with a winning record this week unless they tie. Anyhow...there are actually a ton of fans here that would practically welcome a Buffalo win as the final nail in the Jason Garrett Coffin. No one down here thinks this is a contender with this coaching staff...they all think the roster is good enough for that, but the coaching holds them back. Because the NFC is east so bad....Dallas can still win their division if they lose thursday, so it isn't critical...but if they lose and the whole damn city is going to want blood.

KC can still get a 1st round bye because we beat the Ravens in week 3 but gotta get level with them for that to happen. Need 2 losses for them somewhere. Buffalo, SF, and cleveland seem like chances. In a really perfect World KC catches the Pats...we play them head to head soon....but need another couple losses out of them also....one of those could be you guys. P.S. Really enjoyed you guys beating the hell out of the Broncos. THANKS!

In that thread only a few would want Allen, and the guy pointing out Allen doesn’t throw guys open is me ?

Of course it is. But.....I have a job where I work 12 shifts at a time, and I monitor a certain computer system that doesn't have all that many problems, but when it does, they need someone around that understands it and can fix it....and so I have A LOT of down time at work that goes by really slow unless I do things like "troll" message boards and what not. So even at that...yeah...you could say it's an odd way spend the time...but given the choice of taking my kids to the park or having dinner with my wife etc etc...I'd be doing those things instead of this.....the circumstances are such that I have time to kill and this is one of the ways I do it.