Zerovoltz

.........if Josh Allen was destined to be who he is now because he has McDermott as coach and Bean as GM...and the OC, players, city, uniform and all that, then WHY bother to draft him? I hate this argument. You are suggesting that if JA was drafted by the Bears, he would suck, but if he were in KC, he'd be throwing 50 TD's and for 5000 yards because of coaching and the situation. If that were the case, then Andy Reid did some of his WORST coaching between 2013 and 2017 because he sure as hell couldn't get Alex Smith to do it with the same system, with Kelce, with Hill....and Smith even had the benefit of Kareem Hunt leading the NFL in rushing and he STILL couldn't do it. KC shouldn't have bothered to trade for Smith I guess....because Reid could have just kept rolling with Matt Cassel and schemed and coached that guy into 50 and 5000 I suppose. Speaking of Cassel....he took over a Patriots team that was coming off a 16-0 regular season, that had Randy Moss and Gronk, and Wes Welker..all the same guys Brady had...and Cassel went 11-5 with that squad. Moss's numbers were way down from the year before (but amazingly, Welker, the slant/possession guy had almost identical numbers!) ....Belichick must have had an off year coaching because clearly, the player and their talent and abilty don't matter....it's the organization. That squad carried Cassel to 11 wins, not Cassel carrying them. Mahomes would be great wherever he went.....

This is a somewhat wild stat. Allow me to give it some context though. 2013 KC was drafting 1/1 in a draft that didn't have a QB (you all should know that first hand) and no big time edge rusher...so we took Eric Fisher. Frankly he sucked about the first 4-5 years of his career...he's good now. Took a while. 2014. Dee Ford. We franchised and traded him to the 49ers this past offseason. He had an up and down career in KC. 2015. Marcus Peters. Great cover guy.....bad tackler. KC ended up trading him after he and an assistant coach got into a fist fight on team bus. Got a 2nd in 2019 and 4th in 2018 from the Rams for him. 2016. KC had pick 28 and traded out of the first round with ....San Francisco... 2017. Traded up from 27 to 10....also giving up 2018 1st and 2017 3rd. 2018. Pick was traded to the Bills in 2017. 2019. Pick traded to Seattle. OK. So, let's examine what KC got out of these trades. 2014 pick Dee Ford is now a 2020 Second Round pick from the 49ers. 2015 pick Marcus Peters turned into backup Safety Armani Watts (rd 4 2018) and Starting safety and all rookie Juan Thornhill (rd 2 2019) 2016 trade out of first round plus KC 7th, for SF 2nd, 4th and 6th. That got KC, Chris Jones (2nd round) Guard Parker Ehinger (4th) Ehinger was traded to the Cowboys for KC starting CB, Charvarious Ward....and CB DJ White (no longer on team, 6th round) 2017. Pat Mahomes 2018.....also Pat Mahomes 2019. Frank Clark. So from 2013, to 2019, KC either used their 1st round pick, or traded the pick or player and that got us (KC) Fisher - Starting good LT. Juan Thornhill - All rookie impact starting S. Chris Jones - Starting stud DT. Charvarious Ward - Starting CB. Frank Clark - Pro Bowl DE. and Patrick Mahomes. All world QB. So while the stat is correct......it needs context. KC played the cards well here.

This shouldn't be a debate because the Bills were NOT taking a QB if they stayed at 10. Chicago should, and does catch alot of hell for what they did in that draft because they missed Mahomes and Watson. The Bills, hired Mc D on month before the draft and didn't fire Whaley until the draft was over. Mc D KNEW going into the 2017 Draft he was NOT going to take a QB high, that he hadn't scouted, or had input from the new GM on. It will never be looked at correctly, but what Mc D did, going into 2017 draft, with QB off the board, was a make an A+ rated trade under the circumstances. Considered within the context of the moment, Mc D, was able to trade back, get an all pro CB, and an extra 1st and 3rd which he and Bean then converted in some way shape or form into more impact players in 2018. It was actually a hell of a successful deal for the Bills. ONLY if the Bills were committed to drafting a QB in 2017, should this be looked on as a fail. If anyhthing the Pegulas hiring schedule may have kept the Bills out of the QB market in 2017, but the fact remains...prior to the 2017 draft, Buffalo was not going to be drafting a QB.....once you've determined you aren't taking one, the Bills did absolutely the best they possibly could have. It's a shame they get blasted by the lazy media as being "the team that passed Mahomes". the Bills weren't that team. That was the Bears, Browns, Jets, Niners, Titans, Bengals.....in fact its incredible how little crap the Bengals, picking at 9, one pick in front of the Bills/KC at 10, get for taking John Ross instead of Mahomes. History won't be kind to Buffalo for this because they happened to be the team that made the trade.

The sad thing about Watson is, that if he were the one actually running the Baltimore attack, that would be dangerous, and truly a legit threat because unlike Lamar, Watson is a good passer. I think some of the know on Watson coming out of Clemson was that he'd have some turnover issues, and wasn't the fastest study or all that good or quick at going through progressions. I think some of that has shown up in the pros, but he's way better than I, or many thought, and he is being wasted by Bill Obrien, insisting that he be a classic pocket passing type. ......wich he is good at, but why force a guy to be one dimensional, when he has 2 dimensions? Think of Allen in a scheme where they only let him be a drop back passer, and forbid the guy to run......that's what they do to Watson in Houston.

The major flaw in this comparison is that Manning gets 500 more pass yards becasue the Colts were much more efficient on offense. They converted that 3rd and 8 a couple times a game that kept a drive alive and led to more attempts and points. This board has been breaking down "Completion PCT" since Allen was drafted. He isn't efficient enough. The Bills offense isn't efficient enough. You get bigger and better stats when you move the chains consistantly due to more oppertunity. As I pointed out earlier in this thread, the Bills had the 8th highest number of possesions in the NFL this year. They scored 1.66 points per possesion. That is a poor number. The Bills made plenty of big plays. Allen had a good number of long passes and big runs. He was however inefficient. NFL football games are typically settled by margins less than 7 points most weeks. The difference in winning more often than not, is being efficient. Converting a few more third downs. Executing in the red zone ONE more time than usual, keeps drives going...means a FG instead of punt and means TD instead of FG more often. You can break down the numbers for Allen a million different ways, and compare him to every QB that played in the last 20 years and you can find numbers to make him look like he's on a path to the HOF, and you can find numbers that tell you JP Losman was better. .....and it doesn't matter. Doing the small things in a game, more often, is what needs to happen. Allen needs to be better...he's the biggest part of the Bills being more efficient.....better players, play calls and all that are part of it too, but it's mostly Allen. This is an overly simple way to look at it. Brown had a very good season.....he was used to his AND his QB's strength....long routes, big arm QB....good combination. Beasely had a statitstically good season, but he had more targets than he's ever had so even with a rather low catch %, his stats look good. You say "it's the QB obviously" .....that's a double edged sword isn't it? Brown benefitted from Allen as QB....especially compared to noodle arm Flacco. Allen maximizes what Brown does best. Beasly's stats are target driven...his catch PCT was way low....he runs mostly short routes...Allen isn't "ACCURATE".....alot of his throws are not right on the numbers short...meaning Beasley had alot of tough balls to catch, thrown his way and thus they didn't make the connections at a very high rate...especially for a guy who is your short route/slant guy. .....(PS, Beasley is a very good slot WR...his catch PCT is very good through his career....higher than Edelmans even. IF he were in NE, he'd be a media darling) You can argue both of these guys are very good pieces for Allen to have around......your weapons, especially Beasley, probalby made Allen look better than he might have otherwise. You need better TE and probably a big post up type WR that presents allen a big tall target....again, the help maximize what Allen does best. See my first comment in this post. Your offense has to be more efficient. Trying to pin this on .25 plays a game is being way too selective and ignoring the problem. Offense, including, the QB, must become more efficient....I'm probalby giving what would be considered and overly simple response here....but Allen/the team need about 6-10 plays a game that extend drives...resulting in fewer punts that turn into a FG or 2.....and some drives that instead of FG, turn into a TD or 2.

Buffalo had 183 Drives/offensive possesions in 2019. They only scored 1.66 points per drive. This tells you a couple things. 1. That many drives is a pretty high number. That's top 10 in the NFL. It means either the other team scored quickly and you had a high number of possesions, or your D was stout, got turnovers and got your O the ball alot. It would seem the latter to be the case here. This would be where the little things that a Comp% number being lower than average, would show up. ....and what I mean is, if you miss a couple of completions in a game that might have put your in field goal range, or converted a third down to keep a drive alive that might have ended up getting points....then you accumulate these over a season....it's a huge difference. Most NFL games are pretty close. You can usually point to a few big plays here or there that make a difference, but often, there are 2 or 3 little things that happen...drop, bad pass, bad route....whatever the case may be....where it doesn't seem big at the time, but what if you converted that 3rd down? What if you got into FG range instead of punting there? You have to make these little plays alot more often than not. And it's easier said than done......but this is where Allen and the offense have got to be better....squeezing more points out of each possesion, and you do that over a season by making a few more 3rd downs...kicking a few more FG's because you got in range...and finishing off 1 or 2 more drives a game with a 7 because you converted and kept a drive going instead of punting or taking the FG. I've heard a TON of arguments about Alex Smith being a good QB for KC, surrounded by weapons and good coaching. ...and for the most part that was true. But Alex Smith was NOT efficient at this stuff very often. He'd throw short on 3rd down or run short of the sticks....he'd not make the conversion in the red zone and we'd settle for 3 instead of finishing off with 7. It shows up in these drive numbers. KC has had FEWER drives each year since 2017, but have longer drives, each year, with more points per drive since going with Mahomes. Hill, Kelce, ...Hunt in 2017, but committee in 2018 and 2019. the Bills were 3rd in the NFL in 2018 with 193 drives. Good D giving the O the ball. The O was horribly inefficient. 1.39 points per drive...3rd worst. There was improvement in 2019. 183 drives, still very high, but 1.66 points per drive and 2:34 of possesion per drive. Those are still bottom 1/3 numbers for offenses. For the Bills to be an actual threat on offense....it's going to take a pretty big leap in EFFICIENCY. A big part of that is the passing game....not big plays so much as making the little ones way more frequently. Buffalo had plenty of big plays. It can happen. Need to keep trending upward...need Allen to make another good leap forward. Add another good weapon or 2.

This whole thing isn't all that complicated. Allen and the Bills weren't efficient on offense in 2018. In 2019 there was improvement. They still aren't efficient enough. They need to continue to improve to be considered legitamate contenders. They have a lot of cap space. The draft is coming. The QB will be in his third year. Tom Brady is pretty much done. That is alot to be optimistic about. There are certainly legit reasons to be concerned, but 2020 is going to be an Allen led team with more seasoning and more parts added. If that doesn't translate to substantial improvements in offensive efficiency again in 2020, THEN you can start discussing how to move forward. You drafted a raw QB who was supposed to take YEARS to develop. He's developing....and its taking years. The roster needed alot of fixing and turnover. That also takes time. Many good moves to that end so far. You all are ON TRACK...you are on schedule.

I am sure that 18 year old "child" is scarred for life. These monsters robbed him of his innocence! What a burden it must be on this "child" to have to recall this traumatic episode whenever he's conversing with other children in his peer group. I am sure this will haunt his dreams for as long as he lives. (Lucky bastard)

......The Titans had 272 total yards and their O scored 14 points on NE. They won the game because Brady is heading over that cliff and he had no real help at WR to help him overcome that. 14 points and 272 total yards = crushing loss VS KC. ....the Titans against balitmore.....Baltimore had the ball at the 36, 18, 31, and 16 of the Titans and those 4 possessions ended in ZERO points due to turnovers or failed 4th and inches. They also had failed 4th and inches at their own 45 and an INT at their own 31. The Ravens were moving the ball just fine. They kept either shooting themselves in the foot, or miraculously, couldn't convert 4th and very short. The Titans took advantage of those mistakes.....and Lamar, going into the game, only had a 60 QB rating when trailing by two scores. He is mortal when you make him pass to come back when down. The Titans are going to be crushed like little bugs this Sunday.

I just read this entire thread......entertaining to say the least. Couple things here... 1. KC's D didn't play that bad. the first TD, blown coverage was AWFUL.....but Houston's other points were on a blocked punt, and a 6 yard short field after a muffed punt....their offense was mostly garbage time yards. KC also benefitted from short fields after the Houston punt fake and kick off fumble..but KC also had some LONG drives...one was 90 yards in the 3rd quarter. ....Also...Alex Smith had Andy Ried and Kelce and Hill...AND KAREEM HUNT leading the NFL in rushing and he couldn't touch Mahomes production....Yes, we have good weapons in KC....but Mahomes is amazing. .....and I have also seen nation media and fans alike with the continued stupid take of "keep Mahomes in the pocket" .....Do people not understand his QB rating is HIGHER when he stands in the pocket as opposed to running around? I think folks just see some of his throws on the run and assume you don't want him getting rolling out of the pocket.....not true. 2. I also love the lazy narrative about the Titans. New England held them to 14 points. It's not like they just stomped the Pats into the ground. Brady just has fallen off enough that they couldn't socre. The Ravens had drives end inside the 15, the 18, the 20 the 32, and the 35 and had 12 points to show for all that mess. The Titans weren't stopping any of that...The ravens had turnovers and TWO failures on 4th and 1 that ended drives. ....Prior to that Baltimore game..and it held true....when Lamar Jackson trails by 2 scores, his QB rating is 60. You make him have to pass to get back into a game, he becomes what people always thought he was....a really good athletic QB, that isn't a great passer. Ryan Tannehill has combined for 160 passing yards in two playoff games. KC is a 7.5 favorite to open. KC is going to CRUSH them like little bugs. 3. You might recall, KC lost to the Titans in tennesee this year. .....in that game, KC had a fumble returned for a TD, had a FG blocked late, then after TENN had scored with 30 seconds left, KC still got into FG position to tie the game, but the snap was botched. KC had 530 total yard to TEN's 371. Tannehill had 181 passing. They were 2-8 on thrid down conversions. KC won TOP 37 to 23. If you played that game 20 times, KC wins it 19 times. the Titans played their 1 game that they win because KC had some bad turnovers, bad special teams play....and damn near still had it anyhow. When you have Pat Mahomes. you are NOT out of a game, ever.

THIS is it right here. Josh Allen, Mahomes, Brady, Lamar...doesn't matter the name at a given moment...the NFL made the TV revenue the moment they got the check from the networks.....the networks write that check because they believe they can sell advertising and make a profit. THAT is what determines the prime time schedules....or the flex games and all that. What matchup and game do the networks think will be the one that is compelling enough to draw eyeballs to the TV. They don't sell advertising in 5 year blocks like they do TV contracts. I suspect based on this that the Bills are going to get more "big" game exposure in 2020 because people want to see them. I'd expect at least 1 Monday night game, at least one Sunday night game, at least 1 Thursday night game and probalby a couple "National" CBS late games (probably on the road though) Would be really sweet if that KC / Buffalo game was a monday night game.

Would have been cool to see a Chiefs - Bills matchup this week. I watched her the game. I thought it was a pretty even matchup with the Bills having the better team and coaches but the Texans with the better QB overall. This was Allen’s first go round in the Playoffs. I think he will remember it and learn from it. His 38% completion percentage in the 4th is something to think about. Need better weapons? Yeah. Maybe some better play calls? Maybe? Its something to build on for sure. Lots of good young talent and more to come this offseason. I’d be stoked about 2020.

Instant Replay....brought to you by the United States Postal Service.....just like this replay....we are slow, AND we're bound to get it wrong too!

What? Also....I pointed out where Smith came up short....and it wasn't in the stat line you get from the box score, and it wasn't QB Rating etc. ....Andy Ried didn't think Smith could win the big one....why would they move on from him and trade 2 firsts and 3rd for a guy alot of people were shaky about? Smith, with his 2 TD 0 INT performance also converted one 3rd down in he second half, and only 4 for the game total. This wasn't new. Smith ALWAYS valued ball security WAY more than risking a turnover to get conversions when you need them.

From a box score perspective, you might say he did well...and that wouldn't be wrong. He did. He was absolutely dreadful in the red zone....ranked like 31st in 2017 in Red zone comp%, TD% it was awful. Also not good on 3rd and long. notorius for throwing short of sticks. His stats don't show his deficiencies.

Good advice....I'm going to take a seat on the bench on this one. out.

What would have to happen to change your mind Yav? You've hated Mahomes from the beginning. you predicted he'd suck....and since he doesn't suck, you insist he only does anything because of the roster around him. Alex Smith didn't do much with the same roster. You do know KC CRUSHED the Ravens this year without their starting LT, without Hill, and without a RB..... Is there a rating system you like that suggests Mahomes sucks?

....If you only read Josh Allen posts, you might think that's all I do here...and somehow, when I have postive things to say about Allen...no one remembers because those get lost among all the many other similar posts.....I've posted in several other topics here about football in general, or about stadiums, draft stuff...ETC. Someone mentioned in a post that i didn't need to have gone to the trouble of posting all that crap I posted, and just say what I really think of Allen. I've said it before....here it is again. 1. I thought Allen wouldn't work out in the NFL based on his college career and numbers. 2. I noted at the time, as many others have, that Allen would be the ultimate test case of analytics VS. old school scouting. 3. I stated more than once here, that I wanted Allen to prove the analytics people wrong because that pendulum has swung too far toward the data, and forgets we are dealing with humans, and you can't put a metric on certain human qualities. 4. Even as I have thought he wouldn't succeed...I have rooted for him. I like him. He is fun to watch play. I like the Bills. I spent time with Poncho Villa at the 2018 draft, posted pictures of that, bought my kid a Bills jersey. 5. While still enjoying Allen play, and marvelling at his athleticism, charisma and arm....I still remain concerned and skeptical of the passing overall. 6. I completely agree 100% Allen is your franchise QB. He's well established and entrenched as the man, as he should be. The debate now isn't if Allen is going to be a successful NFL starter. He is that right now today. The debate is will he continue to improve and become that guy that carries a team to a championship... I remain skeptical that unless he becomes a more efficient passer (note, I didn't use Comp%) then I am not sure that Allen, can carry a team to a championship. I don't think my skepticism is unfounded...many others here are as well....I do think it's highly unappreciated because I am an "outsider". I do understand that it's like when someone beats up your brother, you want to go kick their ass. But....you can beat up on your brother because he's family. .......noted...... Fortunatly for everyone...we get to watch and see what happens.

.....does a meteorologist quit forecasting because he misses a forecast? Does a stock broker stop buying and selling stocks because they made a bad investment? I hadn't realized that making a incorrect observation or prediction meant you could never offer an opinion or thought again. .....I didn't predict Josh Allen would fail to continue to develop. I did point out that IF he does..it would be an outlier....MUCH LIKE his rise from a farm boy, unrecruited by big schools, then played at Wyoming and then drafted in the first round and so on....has been an outlier this entire time. I was offering up some anecdotes to consider, not telling anyone that Allen sucks, is going to suck, regress or any of that....I was purposeful to say Allen may very well continue to develop.....it's a hell of an interesting story, made more interesting. Can you, or anyone else point out where I said anything BAD about Josh Allen? I opened my post with the line...some unpleasant things to consider....because entertaining the thought the team might enter a down year in the up-down-up cycle some young teams go through, is not a thought anyone here would consider pleasant...nor is the idea that it's possible that Allen, if he trended like most QB's have...could be done with substantial development.....another thing that wouldn't be fun to think about here... No one at the end of last season thought the Bears wouldn't be a contender or that Trubisky would stall out.....the Bears 2019 season is a case that fits what I am talking about here.....I am suggesting it's a possiblity for the 2020 Bills...not that it's their destiny etched in stone.....Clearly these are unpleasant things to consider.....but that's all they are...just posibilities to think about.....BASED on a broad history. If history dictated everything that happened in the future...we'd all know the future....and no one would care or watch or discuss football....we'd all know the outcome of everything. You certainly don't have to like or agree with my opinion or my methods to support my thoughts......and clearly a good number of people here do not. ....so if I turn out to be wrong...then enjoy the crow that you can serve me...and I'll be here to eat it. I'm certainly getting full of it from my lackluster season predictions that I posted here.

I did copy and paste it...we were discussing this about Drew Lock on a Denver forum I post on. It's part of a post I made there. Easier than retyping it. If you'd like to the numbers I charted from the several I did, I could post them......and what is so hard to understand about saying that MOST, but not ALL QB's adhere to this....and that I further suggest that Allen may yet have more progress to make.....I was suggesting that it is likely that he's about done developing just based on the idea most guys are after 16 games...but I was purposeful to suggest he could be like the guys who improved even more after 16 games. .....did you read what I wrote? I think just about everyone stopped once they got to the part where I suggest most guys are done with major improvements after 16 games and you all just assumed that I must have said Allen is done developing and didn't read any further.

......I did not say ALL QB.....are done....I then brought up examples of guys...who like Allen....made dramatic improvements after their first 16. I didn't say he was done developing....I said he could be an exception....Not sure what you think I should have said? That it's a foregone conclusion that given his current trajectory, Allen will be the ulitmate QB ever in 5 more starts? That he's already the best? What am I missing here?

This narrative is kind of lazy. Mahomes played on a Texas Tech team with one WR who was drafted. (kiki Coutee) None of his horrible O line are even on an NFL practice squad, He produced at a very high level with very low level talent around him his whole career. Certainly KC has better players in place than what Buffalo had at the time, but to say Mahomes couldn't have operated at a high level in Buffalo isn't supported by Mahomes time in college ....When trailing by 2 scores or more.....QB Rating: Mahomes 112 Lamar, 60 You get out to a two score lead and ONE of these guys suddenly becomes pretty ordinary. Trick is getting out to a lead. Mahomes is 2-0 VS Lamar. Quoted this post just because I live that song. Same as it ever was! THIS. Granted, the idea was that McDermott simply wasn't going to allow a lame duck GM to draft his QBOTF ...and McD had only been on the job a month...is a D sided coach and didn't have the time or the area of expertise to pick a QB in 2017....he wanted to wait until the crop of 18 AND have the new GM in place to work wiht on that very important pick. It's just the circumstances that existed at the time. You can not fault McD...and certainly not Beane. If anything, the cumbersome leadership changes at coach and GM the Pegulas undertook in 2017 set up circumstances that simply weren't conducive to drafting a QB in 2017. In that sense the trade was "good" because the Bills got capital and made productive use of it. They weren't taking a QB period in 2017. The TRADE isn't a bad trade.....it should be viewed entirely separately from the circumstances. so.... 1. The ownership created circumstances that set up the draft where there wasn't going to be a QB taken.....so GIVEN THAT YOU AREN'T going QB....then you are operating with the idea of what is the best thing you can do at 10....and that was to trade back for capital, and still get a good player. The trade is actually and A+ given the conditions it was made under.

....before I address you @Gugny I'd like to address the responses to my post 1. ...I am very clear that my prognostications have been poor, and I specifically mention I have been wrong about Allen. I am not sure any of you read that part...it's the last thing I wrote in my post. 2. I didn't say the Bills had unsustainable defensive metrics. I said the Bears did. I also didn't say Allen would be like Trubisky.....I was pointing out....as at least one other person noticed, that Trubisky, really didn't become a bad QB or regress....his circumstances this year changed...injuries, schedule...not as good a D. Many of you took that completely wrong and seemed to think it meant I think Allen = Trubs.....totally not what I was saying there....just pointing out, circumstances changed from year to year. 3. On that note, someone noted that the up- down - up cycle of young and upcoming teams doesn't always happen....true. 4. Regarding Baker and that Allen/Bills record VS teams with better QB rated quarterbacks....I was using QB rating. If I made an error on Baker...then my bad...It could be that his rating changed since I posted that...or probably I read it wrong. 5. I do understand the Bills and Allen have played some tough D...Ravens, Pats, others.... I am not trying to make a case that Allen sucks. I am trying to make a case that Allen A) still has room for some improvement, but likely not a whole lot more, though it's possible. B)....that even as Allen improves, gains experience etc...the Bills will probably face a better slate of QB/offenses next year, so even if Allen and the team are better, the record might not be. C) AGAIN.....As I said in my other post. My predictions on Allen have been WRONG. He has far exceeded what I thought he would do....wich is why none of you should take what I am saying here and run to a bookie with your life savings. I am making observations and posting them. Feel free to discuss, laugh at me, hate me, that's all fine. Part of the joy of sports is NOT knowing what is actually going to happen. If we did, no one would watch or discuss. I put my thoughts out there to be considered, criticized...etc...I like to think I know what I am talking about...but I probably don't. This is a fun (and humbling) way to get my thoughts on the record. ...I can't state this enough, and most of you don't believe me anyway. I ENJOY WATCHING JOSH ALLEN PLAY. I like watching Bills football. Ok....Gugny asked about my data. ....so, I work a job where I sit for 12 hours at a time and monitor a transportation overlay computer system....it mostly runs smooth but sometimes it doesn't and that's why I have a job....to handle things when it doens't. ......I have a TON of time to try and pass and so the other night at work, I started looking at several random QBs first 16 STARTS in the NFL, then compared that to their career averages to see how much deviation there was. I charted Several. I can post if you'd like. MOST of the guys I looked at...it was remarkable who little deviation there was from the averages of the 1st 16 games, to the averages for the whole of their careers. Joe Flacco for example...you can take his rookie year, and those stats don't deviate much at all from his career averages...he was who he was going to be after 16 games. There were a lot of guys I looked at who had similar showings.....Vinny Testaverde, Chad Pennington, Boomer Esiason, Don Majkowski....and many many more....just didn't deviate all that much from the guy they were in their first 16 games. Jay Cutler....his first 16 starts, were damn near spot on what his career averages ended up being. Pretty much the same for Jake Plummer as well.Most guys tended to improve their Yards Per Game by 30-40 yards over their rookie years....the INT pct surprisingly, for many, went up overall, as they progressed. The Completion PCT didn't vary a whole lot....typically about a 3% incresase over the first 16 games compared to the whole of the career.Some guys that were drastic outliers...Tom Brady...INT pct went way down, YPG went way up. John Elway's completion pct improved only modestly, but he was throwing for many more yards per game later on in his career. Alex Smith might be the biggest improvement from 16 games in, to whole career that I looked at....he was absolute trash 16 games in....if he hadn't been a 1/1, his career would have, and should have ended a very very long time ago....but his later career stats really pick way up....took him a long time to blossom into something decent I guess. Peyton Manning is another one whose first 16 wern't very good..but he improved accross the board substantially after that..His second set of 16 games was much closer to what his career averages would be, with the exception of completion PCT. Manning really got ALOT more accurate as time went on.A few guys got progressively worse from their 16 starts onward.....Rick Mirer one of the better known QB's who came in hot, and then flamed out. People might mis remember Dan Marino a bit....his rookie year was 83, when he started 9 games and was quite good....it was 84 that he had his big record breaker year...so the first 5 games of that, along with is rookie year....Marino was mostly on his career averages when compared to his first 16 games overall. Matt Cassel was another one I looked at....his career trajectory...DOWNWARD....was interesting because his first 15 starts were with the Randy Moss patriots...the team that had gone undefeated in the regular season the year before. Cassel went 11-5 with that group and had decent numbers....never to be repeated. Bubby Brister actually was a little better to start than he ended up being over the course of his career....never posting good numbers..they just got worse over time.While there are exceptions both where guys show out better than their first 16 and some show out worse....A TON of dudes....are who their first 16 starts say they are.

....some unpleasant things to consider.... The Bills have played one of the easier NFL schedules this year. The Bills are 1-5 against teams whose QB has a higher QB rating for the season than Josh Allen. Your lone win against a higher rated QB was in Dallas VS Prescott. The list of QB's that the Bills have defeated this year is a really really bad list. It's not the Bills fault they got to play the QB's and schedule they played, but when they've had a good QB/team on the schedule, they haven't won. The Bears played one of the easier schedules in 2018 and went 12-4 with their 2nd year QB and a dominant D. The D had some really great, unsustainable metrics in 2018 that not surprisingly, they haven't been able to replicate in 2019, and Trubisky, hasn't been able to overcome that and carry the team. I don't really think he's that different than he was last year, just different circumstances. It's not unusual, for a young, ascending team with a young QB, to have a disappointing season, following a season where they jump up and have a good record for the first time in a while. .......something else that should be of concern......MOST, but not all QBs, you can look at their stats for the first16 STARTS of their career, and you can get a real good idea of who they are going to be. Most improve their YPG by 30-40 yards over their careers, and comp % goes up an average of about 3% higher for their career over what they produce in their first 16 starts. INT % tends to stay about the same. It's not certain, but it is probable, the Josh Allen we are seeing now, is the Josh Allen we'll be seeing for as long as he plays, with just minor improvement over time from this point on. Given this, .....(prepares to duck as the stones come hurling toward me) ...The Bills will probably lose their playoff game, and probably will regress a bit in 2020. I do think Allen is a superior QB to Trubisky and his ceiling is higher. He's already defied what I thought he'd be capable of....so take my prognositcation here knowing I've already been wrong about Allen.

I have agreed with this for a long time. I like QBR better, but it is flawed also. I like AYN/A but when you run that stat against QBR and Passer Rating.....the list of guys who are the NFL's "leading passers" doesn't really change much. Mahomes is 1st in the NFL at AYN/A but 5th in QB Rating. Lamar Jackson is 3rd in both. Josh Allen is in the 20's in both. I know QBR tries to take into account the context of game situations...but that is arbitrary to the person doing the scoring.