Zerovoltz

....This is one of those carefully worded articles...that if you just read it closely, and how it's worded....is PURE speculation....Watson has said nothing.

I can't think of a better place or better group of people to chat about a Chiefs/Bill AFCCG. I love it too!

So....if you go back and look at that game again.....the Bills ran 10 personel 16 times that game. HALF of those were in the 4th Q trailing late. Sounds like a good plan. KC has the guys to cover that...I hope the Bills run 10 personell the whole game.

Breaking this down even more.... These are only stats from the KC/BUF game earlier this year. Buffalo targeted WR on 84% of their pass plays in that game for a 48% success rate and an average of only 4.9 yards. In that game, KC only 46% of their targets went to WR...35% to RB and the other 19% to RB. Buffalo not having a TE or RB threat in the passing game plays to KC's strengths on D....and the Bills inability to cover TE....plays into why Kelce is a huge difference in this game.

....KC would LOVE for the Bills to go 5 wide.....because we do have 4th and 5th corners that can cover. Someting esle to watch for....Honey Badger led the leauge in passer rating when covering the slot reciever.....

it covers only the regular season.....in wich you didn't play indy.

@Hapless Bills Fan If you read into those stats more....you see Buffalo has an even better pass D VS WR than KC does....however, the difference maker for KC is Kelce. Buffalo had 25% of their opponents targets go to TE...that was tied for highest with a couple other teams...and as you see the Bills have a poor success rate VS TE (makes sense that teams would target the TE vs a team that isn't good at stopping the TE) ..... Kelce is what gives KC the advantage in the game. He is a big part of what makes KC dangerous....if you stop the WRs with two deep zone etc....you aren't stopping Kelce...if you dedicated 2 guys to stopping Kelce, Mahomes is going to find the open target elsewhere......couple that with your lack of a 4 man pass rush....that is advantage KC. It's why I have KC winning the game. All other things being equal...TE is decidedly not equal here.

....I am not unaware that most teams are in Nickel etc more often than not. So to back up what I am saying....https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/target-rate-by-position--def-.html KC has 4th best success rate VS WR regardless of D on field. KC is 29th VS TE and 26th VS RB. Again, regardless of D on field. As percentage of targets, teams targeted WR only 56% of the time wich was the lowest in the NFL....Buffalo is close as teams only targeted WR 57% of the time.....indicates a good secondary. The team(s) that gave the Chiefs fits this year...especially the Raiders...throw to TE and RB alot.

The reason why it matters: Buffalo plays more 3 and 4 WR than anyone in the league. If you guys are going to come out in 3 and 4 wide all game, then you allow KC to put it's optimal defense on the field. That matters because KC's linebackers absolutely SUCK in coverage. KC allows a TON of points and stats to TE and pass catching backs.....when they are in base defense....with the 3 linebackers out there. You all might not think so, but part of why Josh struggled VS KC in week 6 is because the Bills don't have a TE threat AND...important AND...not a big time threatening running game..... When the Chiefs aren't worried about a TE or an RB running....they will nickel and dime you to death. It isn't a coincidence that Diggs tied his 2nd lowest number of recpetions and second lowest yardage total on the year VS KC. That's what KC does ......when they can play extra DB's all game long. KC has a slew of really good corners and safeties. it's the main reason why the KC defense is a bad matchup for the Bills.

Ok......here are my thoughts......from your favorite KC fan on this board (probably the only KC fan on this board, except @Yav He loves KC more than anyone I know) First a note about the weather. Mahomes played college ball at Lubbock, TX. That place is very windy and cold and sometimes snowy in winter. Mahomes has played in a couple snow games with KC and many times in very cold temps. KC does NOT change what they do (and unless it's a crazy deep snow game, they won't...and that isn't anticipated) So....all of what I am saying here, applies regardless of weather. WHEN KC HAS THE BALL: Will use a ton of presnap motion to see that Bills coverage looks like. Also use that presnap motion to show same play a few times...then start running 2 or 3 variants out same look to keep D off balance. KC won't insist on trying to run into stacked boxes. Mahomes will check out to a pass, and vice versa. KC will be looking, as they always do...to exploit matchups with Kelce. If the Bills go with a heavy zone scheme...watch for KC to run a lot of "floods" to one side and let Patrick read the defenders either moving to cover, or staying in place...Mahomes will look to exploit the spot that wasn't/isn't covered in that situation. KC's weak points on O. Interior O line....this group is a bottom 5 group and has been since Mitch Morse left. KC's entire interior is 7th round or later JAGS that they get by with because Pat Mahomes. RT has been a revolving door also since we lost Schwartz, our pro bowl RT. Only LT Eric Fisher has been consistent....and most games he's solid but elite edge rushers get the better of him...fortunately, the Bills don't have a Bosa brother. If you want to put a wrench in the works of the KC offense, a good way to do that is with interior pressure. Teams that can rush 4 and get there in a hurry, give Mahomes trouble as he needs the time to sift through the 7 deep zones in that case. KC isn't a good red zone team. Close in, if you can keep tabs on the small WR's, you've got a fighting chance....just have to make sure you've got Kelce fully accounted for. No fade or jump ball options limits what KC does down close in. Couple that with again, the POOR interior O line, you have a team that doesn't get a push in short yardage situations.....also limitiing what they do in close. KC relies on Mahomes improvisation and shemed up misdirection type stuff down close to make up for this. Holding KC to red zone field goals is a MUST for the BIlls. WHEN BUFFALO HAS THE BALL: The bills run more 3 and 4 WR sets than any team in the NFL....wich plays right into what KC does best on D. KC allowed the fewest receptions by WR's for the year. KC has a DEEP stable of very capable pass defenders who according to PFF (NOT a service I like, but just using the stat to make my point) ....KC has 6 Corners ranked in the top 60 overall. (or something like that) If you do the math...PFF thinks KC has 6 guys who are good enough to start on just about every team in the leauge. That isn't even counting Honey Badger. Badger is used as an occasional blitzer, but generally plays an exceptional centerfield, and his AT SNAP reads are exceptoinal VS the run....counted a good number to times VS Cleveland where he flew up on pitches to the outside and turned the play back inside before the lead blocker could get to the inside defenders. KC doesn't blitz a ton, but when they do, it's often a DB...KC will show alot of saftey action on the line and then havet those guys drop out the majority of the time. CB L Jarious Sneed had a few sacks from the CB spot and is a deceptively good blitzer when called on. ....As long as the Bills are in 3 and 4 wide...KC is going to give you a steady diet of Nickel and Dime packages...wich is what they prefer to be in. If the Bills can generate a threatening running game....that gets KC into more base looks wich means KC's POOR LB corps is on the field more. KC is among the worst LB units in the NFL at covering TE's and RB's out of the backfield with LB's. It will take some doing to get KC out of Nickel.....as KC doesn't mind letting a team have chunk runs between the 20's as long as the big pass plays are held in check....strong chunks running in the red zone would make KC roll out the base D more often....thus removing some good DB's from the field and giving the Bills a better look to pass against. Cleveland was generally getting the ball out pretty fast VS KC. KC had no sacks...and this isn't a big pass rush/sack D, but Chris Jones is disruptive, and has a knack for playing his best at big moments in a game. Frank clark has been disappointing this season, but he was getting around the corner pretty good VS cleveland...The other DE's are not pass rushing threats at all. Mahomes has proven these big games are not too big for him...and this is a battle tested, championship team, that brought back ALMOST the entire super bowl winning roster from last year. They don't panic and with Mahomes on teh field, eveyrone knows there is always a chance until the clock hits zeros. Keep in mind, Mahomes has won 2 playoff games where the other team returned a blocked punt for a TD...he's 5-1 overall. He's never finished 4 quarters of a playoff football game with his team having lost. (only loss was OT in 2018 AFCCG where he never got the ball) In my opinion, this isn't a good matchup for the Bills in that what KC does best on D, is stop what Buffalo does best on O. And while the Bills also have a very very good secondary....Travis Kelce is the difference maker. ....and as seen before, if the Bills try to play a bunch of light boxes, KC will take what is given. Also, without a strong 4 man rush, Mahomes will beat 7 man zones. Ultimately, I think the Chiefs, are just a little too much for this very very good and talented Bills team.

...I was about to add...and I've alluded to it in anotehr post aroudn here somehwere.....KC defends WR very well...RBs and TE's they don't....it's all a because KC's LB corps is well below average. Their DB stable is DEEP. KC is playing the strongest D it can field when it is in nickel and dime....and if you can't run or threaten with passes to the RB and TE....then KC is going to be in Nickel and Dime A LOT. You wnat KC in base packages with 3LB on the field...it's by far our worst look on D.

Just for information..... The idea you need to run the ball well to win VS KC...just doesn't bear itself out when you look at the stats. KC has been outrushed 8 times this year. KC won all 8 KC has lost TOP 8 times this year. KC won all 8 If you are looking for a blue print....you'd want to look at the Raiders. I don't want to credit Gruden too much....becuase in teh Loss...a big part of that was KC's defensive gameplan of daring Carr to beat the blitz (something he isn't good at) and he beat it all day long for big plays. But ...in both Chiefs Raiders games....lots of throwsto TE and RB. KC is NOT a good team at defending TE's or pass catching backs ...KC is GREAT at defending WR. KC ranks amond the worst in the NFL in coverage vs TE and RB...and is top 5 VS WR. ....from a KC perspective, Buffalo isn't a horrible matchup for our D....Buf already isn't a power running team, and Buffalo doesn't have any major threat at TE or out of the backfield. This is a plus for KC. Anyhow...the Raiders fed KC a steady diet of Darren Waller and passes to fullbacks and running backs....in both games, Waller led with 7 catches....and the TE/RB/FB had like 66% of the catches. KC's LB corps is poor at coverage. However....we have an excess of talented DB's. This is a plus for KC vs Buffalo. Buffalo runs 11 personel (3WR) more than any team except Cincy. ....and Buffalo runs 4 WR more than any team except the Cardinals. This plays into the strength of KC's defense. In contrast, the Radiers played the 4th fewest snaps in 11 personel and 2nd most in 22 (1 WR). The radiers do things well that KC sucks at defending...so even a crappy team like the Raiders....gave KC all it could handle and more both times they met this year. And it's also a big reas why Allen probalby had one of his worst games vs KC earlier. Again, just info.....I think it will be a tough game.

Other than the fans of the two teams playing in an AFCCG, no one will remember if player X is injured or not in a year...Super Bowls are what people remember. To that end, if I were a Bills fan, I wouldn't want to see Mahomes. It's not like anyone is going to think the Bills aren't a deserving team if they won a game Mahomes didn't play and made it to the Superbowl...

1st thing that needs to be addressed here....The Chiefs defense is good. This isn't the 2018 Chiefs D...it was good last year...it's good this year. Ranked top 3 VS the pass, and if you minus out the week 17 game where we played all backups...KC was 6th best in total points....furthermore..KC LED THE LEAUGE in fewest receptions allowed to WR's. Tyrann Mathieu is every bit as good as you've ever heard or thought he was....and we have a kids playing CB named L'Jarious Sneed who does everything...he's the best CB you've never heard of...go look him up. Baker had 200 yards passing today. KC didn't get torn up by their run game either. It was a good performance. Also...I saw some talk here that Bashaud Breeland, one of our CB, was out during the game and went to concussion protocol....true...but again...go look at rankigns...ALL our CB are good. Fenton was out today with an ankle..he'll be back next week. CEH will be back. Now, as far as Mahomes...what you might not have noticed was he RAN to the locker room on his own after leaving the feield...he didn't take a hit..but he was jerked by teh neck and kind of choked. I'm not saying he wasn't concussed, but he came around pretty quick. I expect him back. Buffalo is a good team and belongs in the AFCCG...I am looking forward to it. As far as the Chiefs fan base....Internet Chiefs fans are.......pretty crappy. As I said, I don't do Chiefs Planet...I am in some facebook groups...but 80% of the poeple on there....not the sharpest. There is a major divide...seems like we have about 20% of our fans...who are super knowledgable and very gracious and would invite any bills fan to a tailgate and have beers....and then there are the internet fans.....75% of the fans you'd encounter at a Chiefs game at arrowhead would be good....the others are camaroheads....and they are ridiculed and denouced by the rest of us. It is what it is. I can't wait for this game....I of course want KC to win...but I can't express how pleased I am that after the trade, and then you guys getting Allen...how it's all worked out and now here in 2021 we are the top 2 teams left standing in the AFC....who would have thunk it? Good luck this Sunday.....but GOOOOO CHIEFFFS!

I do not post on Chiefs Planet. You can read into that what you want.

Just a couple of items for the game today. I of course want KC to win....and I hope we do so we can host the Bills...the 2 best teams in the AFC in the AFCCG is how it ought to be. This season, (not counting week 17 in wich KC played all 2nd team) KC was outrushed by their opponents 8 times. KC won 7 of those. KC lost TOP 7 times and even in one other game. Won all 8. KC has led big through 3 quarters all year...and have played prevent giving teams scores that make games look closer than they are. KC scoring differential through 3 quarters: KC Q 1-3 313. Opponents Q 1-3 184. KC +129 KC Q 4 135. Opponents 120 KC +15 With Pat Mahomes at QB. KC has has played 5 playoff games. The Chiefs have never scored fewer than 31 points in any of them. KC has had 2 punts blocked and returned for TD's against them....they won both of those games by double digits. Mahomes has never finished the 4th Q of a playoff game as the losing QB. His only playoff loss was 2018 AFCCG when Pats got ball 1st in OT and scored TD. Mahomes never had the ball. Mahomes has 6 rushing TD's in 5 playoff games to go along with his 13 TD passes.

Congrats Buffalo! What a game! Hope to see you all at Arrowhead in a couple weeks!

I'd love to visit Buffalo someday....just from reading some of the things posted here, western NY sounds really cool. If you don't need a beach or a HUGE media market....you can do alot worse than KC....really nice, fairly clean and vibrant downtown, more lanes of highway per capita than any large city in the US....traffic is a breeze..you can get from one side of metro to the other in 30 minutes. Experience of all four seasons....lots of thunderstorms. Very passionate sports fans and a really good beer and food scene. Low cost of living....reasonably low taxes. ....and a thriving arts and music scene as well. ......I currently live in the Dallas/Ft Worth Metro plex...and I hate it here.

I don't do Chiefs Planet ....I am on Chiefs facebook pages...I actually have a Chiefs planet Login as Zerovoltz...I've just never posted there.....always just done the facebook thing for Chiefs. I also read some of the Chiefs fansites and I've submitted some articles that have been published to those. I really don't have a good explanation as to why though...probably because I have been long established on the facebook pages and people know me and what I am about there....where as on the board(s) I don't have presence or a reputation to tend to.

Just now saw this....I don't post on Chiefs boards...(I do participate in Chiefs related facebook) ....but I can't disagree with the comment here. KC people (myself included) are instantly piqued when someone mentions that anyone or anything is better than Mahomes. Most are you run of the mill fans that would do the same if Matt Cassel was our QB....but if you had to pin me down, I could probably make a formidable case that Mahomes was no.1 .....that isn't to say that folks here couldn't make a formidable case for Allen....just saying, there is a healthy data set to draw from to make the Mahomes case. also having spent a few years on this board.....I get a sense that there is some civic pride inoloved and that like KC...the find people of western NY have a chip on their shoulder when people try and dismiss Buffalo as being a podunk town with no redeeming qualities. KC people (myself included) are very proud of the city and are very defensive about it anytime someone calls it a cow town. Try telling a person from KC that Texas BBQ is better and see what happens....you'll get a fierce rebuttal and a list of 10 BBQ places in KC that you should go try. so to sum up....yeah...we are douchebags about it.

Maybe so....Buffalo is clearly a super bowl contender as long as Allen is playing....He IS the definition of a franchise QB. I'd love to see a KC/Buf matchup in the AFCCG

KC was without it's no.2 WR. (Watkins) It's starting C and .it's starting RG. All teams have injuries and miss guys from game to game.

The reason everone forgets the Bills were without Edmonds and White is because they actually played. Edmonds led the team with 12 tackles that game. White had 5 tackles. Bass missed a FG. KC missed an extra point.

Yes...8-8 was not a good take...but I did at least lay out what it would take to be better than 8-8 and Allen and Diggs completely nailed that....and come on...I was spot on about the Jets sucking....so maybe...just cold take instead of artic cold?