SoTier

The Ravens are a better team, especially on offense, but the Bills acquitted themselves well. Fans can't ask for more than that; the Ravens are certainly the best team in the AFC and one of the best in the NFL. The Bills need a big, fast sure-handed WR and another RB plus improvement on the OL, which might come from either adding talent or younger players improving.

This. I think it's sometimes called the "it" factor. It's not something that can be taught and learned but if a QB doesn't have that ability to make his teammates believe he's capable of marching the team down the field to a TD on any and every possession, he'll never really be more than a competent backup QB no matter how many positive measurables he has. I think that Ryan Tannehill demonstrates how a QB having "it" can elevate a team's performance. The Titans that were an ineffective and uninspired offense under Mariotta turned into a scoring machine when Tannehill took over. I agree that both Allen and Jackson are outliers. It might very well be that they've found success because the teams that drafted them committed to them because the their teams took them in the first round (and spent some serious draft/talent capital in the process). If they had been taken in the second or third round and only cost their teams the draft pick it took to get them, they might not have been given the support and opportunities that their teams have given them as first rounders. If you look around at successful QBs taken outside the first round over the last two decades, most of them benefited from a big lucky break that gave them an opportunity to prove themselves. I think the two most notable ones are Brady who might have remained an unheralded backup QB if Bledsoe had never been seriously hurt early in the 2001 season and Russell Wilson who may have never been given a good look in Seattle's TC if the Seahawks had had a good, established starting QB to lead their talented team.

When you have nothing to add to discussions except to engage in ad hominem attacks, you demonstrate the quality of your football knowledge or lack of same.

Beane lucked out in that there was talent available. You can't sign decent/good FAs if they aren't available, and with OLers, even guys who are decent/good but not great never make it to FA. It's the same in the draft. Just because the Bills really need a WR1 and this looks like a good year for WRs doesn't mean that the WRs available when they pick are what they want -- or that there's not a better player at another position available that ought to be a no-brainer to take.

You can't assume that either FA or the draft is going to produce the right talent that a team needs because the FO was successful in acquiring talent at that position the previous year. The available talent changes from year to year, and that's especially true for positions like OL where the talent is very limited. Beane lucked out in 2019. I think it would be wise for the Bills to make a serious effort to re-sign the OLers who have worked out the best for them, primarily Feliciano and Spain. The OL is absolutely the unit where a team should spend big $$$, especially if they have aspirations for consistent success during the regular season and playoffs.

If Ford isn't doesn't have the footwork and quickness to play RT, he's very unlikely to make a good LT. The big difference between OTs and OGs is footwork and quickness, and LTs generally need to be more agile and quicker than RTs. It's very common for collegiate OTs to move to the inside in the pros because they fit the guard position better than they do the tackle position. A good/great guard makes the OL better than a mediocre tackle. Edit: John from Riverside: I replied to this before I saw that you meant LG rather than LT.

I don't necessarily advocate taking an OLer before Day 3 unless there's a guy they really like sitting there waiting for them. Numerous good OLers, especially interior OLers, can be found later in the draft. If a late round OLer never advances beyond backup or ST that's okay because a team needs those kinds of players too. That may be true, but I don't want to see them pass on a more talented player at a different position just to take a WR in the first round because they need one. WRs are probably as difficult to evaluate for NFL success as QBs.

The Bills have been very lucky so far this season that they have not had to depend upon their second stringers, especially on offense, often or long term. Once past the starters, the quality on the offense drops precipitiously. An OLer, too. If we're a "pass first team" then acquiring a true veteran WR1 through FA/trade and drafting a WR in the first three rounds seems imperative. Other than Beasley and Brown, the Bills receivers aren't good enough for a team that depends on passing.

Maybe they are, but then again ... In 2017, the Jags came out of nowhere (3-13 in 2016) to win the AFC South with a 10-6 record and eventually go to the AFC Conference Championship where they lost to eventual SB Champion Patriots. They went 5-11 in 2018 and are currently 4-8. In 2008, the Dolphins went 11-5 and won the AFCE after going 1-15 the previous year. They didn't have another winning season until 2016 when they went 10-6 and made the WC after which they sank back to their losing ways. This year they've got 3 wins.

Beane gambled on a C with multiple concussions. AFAIK, Green's injuries haven't been related. This is exactly why I never advocate a specific position in a specific round: you never know who's going to be available. The classic example of this is the Packers finding QB Aaron Rodgers still on the board at their turn at #24 in 2005 when they had the great Brett Favre. A draft position in the 20s is a great spot to pick up a great interior OLer, a LB or DB ... or if the cards fall right, a WR1 or DE.

What good is having "cash left over" when the team only wins 6 to 9 games a year and makes the playoffs once every two decades? That's been the Bills modus operandus since the end of the 1990s. If you look around the NFL, it should dawn on you that the business model established by Ralph Wilson and Russ Brandon is a fail unless the team's primary aim is to maximize profits without regard to the product it puts on the field. Other teams -- Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, Chiefs, Colts, Packers, Vikings, Seahawks, and Eagles -- have consistently fielded playoff teams over the last twenty years despite the salary cap and free agency. Numerous other teams have had cyclical periods of winning and losing. The Bills have been notable for their ineptitude on the field, emphasized by the depressing fact that if the Bills win one more game this season, it will be their first double digit win in 20 years. If Pegula/Beane/McDermott are truly different from their predecessors, then the Bills will figure out how to manage their roster within the salary cap to put a consistent winner on the field like most of the rest of the NFL not like the perennial bottom feeders that they've been hanging with for 2 decades.

The problem is that the draft is a crap-shoot and that's especially true for WRs. Moreover, it can easily take 2 or 3 years to develop a NFL WR. The Bills can't afford to wait that long to get a WR1 if they want to take advantage of Allen's rookie contract. I think that AJ Green would be a good target for the Bills. Because he's older and coming off injury, he should be affordable, and he's always been incredibly sure-handed. This signing would also allow the Bills to draft and develop a young WR. ^^^ This is exactly my thought. I wouldn't be opposed to pursuing Cooper but I think Green is a more realistic target. I would prefer that the Bills not trade for a WR1 but for the right price, it would be better than gambling on the draft. Fans who think that the Bills don't need one now, simply don't pay attention to the rest of the NFL.

This. If the Bills had a relatively cheap young DT already on the roster that was ready to replace Lotulelei, then cutting Star would make sense, but Oliver plays the other DT position (his improvement may have contributed to Lotulelei's improved play recently or they may be complementing each other) and Harrison Phillips is on injured reserve, so the Bills can't count on him to come back from his injury and step into a starting role immediately. Otherwise, the numbers don't make sense. $10 million for a marginally better DT, Lotulelei's deadcap hit of +/- $8 million, and whatever a veteran backup DT would cost ($2 million? $4 million?) adds up to more than just keeping Lotulelei for a year even if the Bills could find another DT who was somewhat better. It's also a great insurance policy in case the starter goes down for the season for a team that's serious about winning football games and making noise in the playoffs, especially since the Bills have the cap space to keep Lotulelei for another season.

I upgraded to Windows 10 when it first was offered years ago, but I'm still using my ancient version of Office 2007 because I didn't like Office 2010, and I'm not interested in going to Office 365. I want my docs accessible.

I think Tannehill is a decent NFL QB. He's competent, and if he's given good support, he can give a reasonable impersonation of a top tier QB at times. He's also a good leader. The Titans' philosophy of a strong defense and running offense suits him perfectly by taking a lot of the pressure off him. The Titans have always been a pretty good team, but they could never get better than mediocre with Mariota providing uninspiring leadership along with uninspiring QBing.

So, you admit your personal aim is to make TSW simply another cheerleading platform for the Bills? Good luck with that, fanboy.

I agree with this totally. I think it was a mistake to sign Lotulelei to the big contract that the Bills gave him, but it would be a bigger mistake to cut him in 2020 and add nearly $8 million in dead cap dollars. The Bills are NOT going to find a comparable starting DT to replace him for $2 million, much less a better one -- and the Bills need 2 starting DTs. Harrison Phillips' progress has been derailed by his injury, so nobody know if he'll return to his previous form next season, and if that is good enough to make Lotulelei expendable in 2021. It depends upon Allen's play next season. If he plays like he'll be a $30-35 million QB, then the Bills should probably sign him sooner than later. OTOH, if he looks he's likely to be a pretty good QB but not an elite one, then the Bills should probably wait until 2021 and probably exercise his fifth year option. They can always extend him in 2021 or 2022 if he continues to play well. Exactly. You only extend a QB early if he plays like a generational talent. Right now, I think that Mahomes and Watson have played well enough to merit being signed early. It's too early to talk about the 2018 QBs right now. Actually, it doesn't appear that Jackson "landed" in Baltimore by happenstance. Ozzie Newsome, his assistant GM Eric DeCosta (current GM) and John Harbaugh apparently targeted Jackson as they executed a couple of trades leading up to the draft to acquire that 32nd pick as their second first rounder in 2018. They also executed some trades to acquire Flacco in the 2008 draft. The Ravens also brought in Greg Roman in 2018 to eventually replace Morningwen which he did in 2019, so it's likely this group had a vision of acquiring Jackson and maximizing his talent. The Ravens under Newsome have always been primarily a strong defense/run first offense, and DeCosta seems likely to continue that philosophy. Maybe, maybe not. That was the thought that the Jets and the Dolphins had (adjusted for salaries at the time) when they extended Mark Sanchez and Ryan Tannehill respectively, and neither lived up to their pay level. OTOH, the Jags exercised their fifth year option on Blake Bortles who had been up and down on his rookie contract. When he had another down year, they cut their losses and sent Bortles packing. Both the Titans and Bucs waited to decide whether to extend their first round QBs, and the Titans, at least, are certainly happy they did. My guess is that the Rams extended Goff too early, and that it's too early to say Wentz should or should not have been extended early. The Eagles at least have cap space and draft picks to continue putting talent around Wentz.

Shedding talent and collecting draft picks and then putting an uncompetitive team on the field the next year isn't "managing the cap". It's simply sacrificing talent for current salary savings while pacifying the fan base with hope based on those draft picks, and the Bills have done this before. What is different from previous Bills regimes is that the Bills haven't added a big name veteran like Tyrell Owens or Mario Williams. When McDermott and Beane have to decide on which of their young veterans to pay -- including Josh Allen -- that's when real cap management will come into play.

Why couldn't the Bills "afford" to pay Gilmore, Woods, and Darby? This excuse is getting pretty old because it's been used over and over in the past two decades by Bills fans to defend the team getting rid of top young players they've developed. Other teams, including those paying $20-30 million to a QB, manage to pay talented DBs and WRs -- and other players -- they've developed. McDermott hasn't won anything yet with "his guys". His 2017 team made the playoffs with players he inherited. Moreover, it's pretty clear that in the salary cap era, successful coaches are the ones who can create a "culture" among a disparate group of players that are a mix of guys they've inherited and guys they've added.

I'm not arguing that they (McDermott/Beane) haven't done a competent job, but I am tired of the fanboys rewriting history to make McDermott and Beane into some kind of geniuses. The Bills are in a good situation via the cap because they have very few high priced veterans and their best young players are all on their rookie contracts, not because Beane has done a miraculous job managing the cap. IIRC, most of the OLers signed this past off season were signed to modest one-year contracts, so if the Bills want to have continuity on the OL, they are going to have to give 1 or 2 of the OLers market rate contracts for 2020.

This post is mostly untrue. McDermott and Beane did NOT "inherit" a mess. They inherited a middle of the road offense that needed a QB and a good defense that needed better coaching. They created their own "mess" by choosing to cut current salary and collect draft picks without regard to cap implications. Brandon, Whaley, and McDermott let future All Pro DB Stephon Gilmore and two excellent WRs, Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin, walk in FA without offering them competitive contracts. In the draft, they chose to pass on two excellent QB prospects in order to trade back to take a replacement for Gilmore. When Beane came aboard, his first notable transaction was to trade Sammy Watkins so that the Bills had no reasonable downfield threat. He also traded away highly paid LT Cordy Glenn to move up in the draft to #7, which also incurred a major cap hit. The only player departure that contributed significantly to the 2018 dead cap problem that wasn't based on McDermott and Beane's personnel decisions was Wood's retirement due to injury. One alternative to what Brandon/Whaley/McDermott did in 2017 would have given the Bills much more talent today. They could have chosen to pay Gilmore and taken either Mahomes or Watson, both of whom were better prospects and are currently better QBs, than Josh Allen --- and both have as much leadership skills as Allen. They could have chosen to let Gilmore walk but re-signed one or both of Woods or Goodwin. That would have still left the Bills with a viable WR corps even after they traded away Watkins. They wouldn't have wasted a third round pick on Benjamin and they could have kept Ronald Darby instead of trading him away for Matthews. Another alternative was for the Bills to keep Tyrod Taylor, not take the cap hit, and not sign AJ McCarron. Or if they just HAD to get rid of Taylor, then they should have named McCarron starter not had a rigged competition where McCarron and Allen played against first teams while Peterman played against scrubs so that he looked "better". Moreover, McDermott and Beane WERE given a "blank check" -- and they made lots of faux pas. Don't pretend otherwise. The current team is about at the same talent level as the team that they inherited with the exception of QB and coaching. The jury is out on the Bills right now despite their big win against Dallas. It's very likely that the Bills make the playoffs this year but there's no denying that they've been the recipient of some really good luck -- an easy schedule and some opponents' misfortunes (injuries, illnesses) and miscues (poor kicking) while largely avoiding major injuries to key players themselves. They have also only played 1 truly top class NFL team this season, NE, and they've lost to 2 of the 3 other talented teams they faced (Philly and Cleveland). Nobody knows if they're good enough to go with the big boys of the AFC like Baltimore, KC, Indy or Pittsburgh much less whichever bully comes out of the loaded NFC.

Excellent write up, Virgil, as usual. I will be honest and admit that I didn't expect the Bills to win. My hope was that it would at least be a close game. I thought that the Cowboys, after getting embarrassed in the previous game, playing at home on Thanksgiving, and with Jerry Jones' "frustration" the story of the week, would come out loaded for bear. Well, it looked like that all right -- for the first drive. After that, though, it was all Bills. They administered a certified butt-whooping reminiscent of the kind that the Glory Years Bills regularly dished out to then hated rivals like the Raiders and Fish. I totally agree with Sherpa that Josh Allen seems to have made a remarkable transformation over the last 3 weeks, especially in his decision making and short/mid range accuracy. If he never becomes an accurate long passer, that's something that the team can deal with. What a team can't deal with is a QB who continually makes poor decisions that put his team in holes no matter how well he throws long balls.

Theoretically, they can finish 10-6, and except for playing the Ravens at home, I think their schedule contains winnable games -- @Pittsburgh, home and away with Cinci, @Arizona. if they continue to play like they have the last three weeks, going 4-1 down the stretch and finishing 9-7 seems entirely possible. Pittsburgh and Indy just seem to have too many injuries to overcome. Tennessee, at 6-5 has a much harder road to get to 9 or 10 wins: @ Indy, @ Oakland, home and away against the Texans, and New Orleans at home. I think that the Raiders are pretenders plus they play @KC, @Chargers, @Broncos plus the Titans and Jags with maybe wins over the Jags looking like a "lock" right now, if there is such a thing.

And better support and coaching. Tennessee has been a pretty talented team for a while now that just never played inspired football. They never had that spark, and people were always making excuses for Mariota's mediocre play. Tannehill's not a great QB but he does have enough leadership skills to get more out of the Titans' talent than Mariota ever did. The Bills were lucky to play them before Vrabel made the QB switch.

This is why I was so angry about the Bills not providing Allen with a competent QB coach when he was so unready for the NFL last season and not putting decent talent around him. They essentially wasted a year of his rookie deal -- and teams can't afford that when they have to figure out if they've got somebody worth paying early on. Even with decent talent around a QB, it's hard to tell because some QBs are just good enough to keep management thinking that if they add 1 more piece or give them a little more time, they'll blossom. Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Nashville have been or are in this situation -- wasting time, money, and especially possible opportunities to draft a better QB -- because they couldn't figure out if their former first round pick was good enough or not.