SoTier

"It's the economy, stupid" -- defacto campaign slogan for Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign. New unemployment claims have been running about 750-800k weekly since about late August. The unemployment rate is running about 8%. Entire industries like travel and tourism and entertainment have been devastated. Small businesses coast to coast are failing with regularity. In 1928, Republican Herbert Hoover won the presidency in a landslide over Al Smith. In 1932, because of the Great Depression that Hoover couldn't deal with effectively, he lost in an even bigger landslide to Democrat Franklin Roosevelt, and the Republicans didn't win the White House for the next twenty years. The US economy isn't going to significantly improve until the pandemic is brought under control, and Trump has proven incapable and disinterested in doing that.

It's an interesting approach but it doesn't mean a whole lot for the actual election unless it accounts for where these social media posts are coming from, which I don't think it can do on Twitter or FB or other social media. Hillary won the popular vote in 2016 by nearly 3 million votes but lost in the Electoral College 304 to 227, so I'm not sure how the advocates for this approach can make the claim that their way would have better predicted a Trump win. In a direct election where popular vote is all that matters, this method might be a valid polling approach, but not in US presidential elections where it's not necessarily how many votes a candidates wins but in what states he or she wins them that counts.

Plus significant votes for third party candidates in some states that cost Hillary battleground states like Wisconsin.

October 13, 2020 - The U of Washington's IHME projects that more than 363,000 Americans could die of the coronavirus by January 1, 2021 and more than 394,000 by February 1, 2021 with the seasonal flu making the coronavirus more deadly. Don't be a dumbass like Covid Donnie who has the luxury of the federal government paying the bill for his recent hospitalization for Covid-19. Be smart and get your flu shot. Be smarter and wear a mask and practice social distancing. Hospitalization for Covid-19 averages about $20-30k above what private or public (Medicare, Medicaid) health insurance covers. October 14, 2020 - 216,904 Americans have died of coronavirus with a single day death toll of 909. Average daily deaths from coronavirus, October 7-13, 2020: 851 Average daily deaths from coronavirus, September 30-October 6, 2020: 707 October 13, 2020 - 215,995 Americans have died of coronavirus. October 6, 2020 - 210,909 Americans have died of coronavirus. October 1, 2020 - 21,311 Americans died of coronavirus in the month of September, an average of 710 per day. October 1, 2020 - 207,808 Americans have died of coronavirus. September 1, 2020 - 185,594 Amercians have died of coronavirus. July 1, 2020 - 127,299 Americans have died of coronavirus.

You're quoting the American Institute of Physics? What could they possibly know about anything, especially about masks? Common sense says masks are useless in stopping the spread of coronavirus. //sarcasm off

Here's an interesting chart relating Covid-19 and state partisanship: Covid-19 Cases and Partisanship by State since June 1, 2020

What kind of cheese do you like with your whine, snowflake?

When the economy is doing poorly, which is the case with the US economy despite to Trump's assertions otherwise, incumbents suffer. Both Carter and Bush 41, the only elected Presidents in the last half century to serve only 1 term were both done in by poor economies. High voter turnout frequently reflects voters' dissatisfaction with the incumbent's performance in office, whether president or governor.

Trump will be remembered as the worst POTUS ever, not simply not up to the job or incompetent or corrupt but all three plus also a wannabe dictator who tried to undermine the electoral process.

I'm not talking about the "Drain the Swamp" crowd because they're enamored of Covid Donnie's macho facade. I'm talking about the many Republicans and right leaning Independents who may not vote at all rather than vote for Biden unless they have a reason to do so. GWB's endorsement might bring them out -- and save some Reps and Senators in tight races.

There was a former George W Bush staffer/advisor on a CNN show a couple of nights ago who said he thought that GWB would endorse Biden. That would have a much bigger impact than a Romney endorsement IMO.

Actually Covid Donnie is a sick caricature of a clown.

Believe what you want.

they sought to make fundamental (hence "radical") changes within institutions and remove from political life persons and institutions that threatened their values or economic interests. Yes, I do. If Biden wins 271 EC votes, then he's won the election. Republican Senators, just like Democratic Senators, and voters of whatever party affiliation or not, love their country. Moreover, politicians are always worried about their next election. I can't see them sacrificing both their country and their careers to support an incompetent wannabe dictator whom the electorate has already rejected. The Radical Right is made up of the extreme conservatives who want to turn the clock back to the 19th century. Neo-liberals crossed with social Darwinists probably describes them best. I hope that shoe doesn't fit you. Unfortunately, it fits some Republican officeholders/candidates too well.

I think that the Republicans will continue to be dominated by the Radical Right for a few more election cycles -- until they get tired of continually losing because their ideas don't resonate with most Americans -- or the party fades away and results in the rise of a new party that's fiscally conservative and socially moderate. A lot of rank-and-file Republicans have become independents already. Trump doesn't really have a political organization; he's got a personal following made up of family and sycophants. Trump's 2016 victory was a reflection with the American electorate's unease with the way the country was going, but he's not only failed to deliver on any of his 2016 promises, his handling of the pandemic has revealed his stupidity, incompetence and self-absorption. Trump's supporters in the GOP have been tarred with that same brush, and as soon as it becomes clear that Covid Donnie is done -- as in Biden accumulates 271 EC votes -- GOP politicians will bail on him. It's already happening. In my Congressional district, Tom Reed, ardent Trumpster in 2016, hasn't mentioned "Trump" in his re-election bid at all. Hell, you wouldn't even know he's a Republican.

Exactly. Originally, the new Congress was seated in December after the election and the President and VP didn't take office until March of the following year. The Twentieth Amendment changed that to Congress taking office on January 3 and the President/Vice President on January 20. The Attorney General has no standing in this issue. In a disputed election, the new Congress sworn in on January 3 decides. That's also specified in the 20th Amendment. It's likely that the new Congress sworn in on January 3 will be Democratic but even if the Republicans hold on to the Senate, I think that enough Republican Senators -- perhaps even all -- will join the Democrats to give Biden the election because they care about their country and its institutions. They don't want to turn a wannabe dictator into a actual one.

October 13, 2020 - The U of Washington's IMHE projects that more than 363,000 Americans could die of the coronavirus by January 1, 2021 and more than 394,000 by February 1, 2021 with the seasonal flu making the coronavirus more deadly. Don't be a dumbass like Covid Donnie who has the luxury of the federal government paying the bill for his recent hospitalization for Covid-19. Be smart and get your flu shot. Be smarter and wear a mask and practice social distancing. Hospitalization for Covid-19 averages about $20-30k above what private or public (Medicare, Medicaid) health insurance covers. October 13, 2020 - 215,995 Americans have died of coronavirus with a single day death toll of 906. October 12, 2020 - 215,089 Americans have died of coronavirus with a single day death toll of 318. October 11, 2020 - 214,771 Americans have died of coronavirus with a single day death toll of 434. October 10, 2020 - 214,337 Americans have died of coronavirus with a single day death toll of 489. October 9, 2020 - Public health officials, including Dr Deborah Birx, warns of a troubling increase in coronavirus cases in the Northeast. (Dr Birx warns of new Covid-19 threat) October 9, 2020 - 213,787 Americans have died of coronavirus with a single day death toll of 1003. October 8, 2020 - 212,784 Americans have died of coronavirus with a single day death toll of 1875. October 7, 2020 - 210,909 Americans have died of coronavirus with a single day death toll of 935. Average daily deaths from coronavirus, October 7-13, 2020: 851 Average daily deaths from coronavirus, September 30-October 6, 2020: 707 October 13, 2020 - 215,995 Americans have died of coronavirus. October 6, 2020 - 210,909 Americans have died of coronavirus. October 1, 2020 - 21,311 Americans died of coronavirus in the month of September, an average of 710 per day. October 1, 2020 - 207,808 Americans have died of coronavirus. September 1, 2020 - 185,594 Amercians have died of coronavirus. July 1, 2020 - 127,299 Americans have died of coronavirus.

A thoughtful and insightful post as usual, RKA. I see the majority of the American people lacking real commitment to any political ideology. In general, they are pragmatists who love their country and are willing to sacrifice for it; who don't like to pay taxes but will raise them on themselves to support institutions, policies, and goals that they think are important; who struggle with accepting social change but get around to it eventually if grudgingly. I think the sound and fury of the ideological wings of the two parties, spurred on by 24-7 media coverage and social media, have obscured the fact that the bulk of Americans want a country that works for them, their families and friends, and for their communities. When they feel that the country isn't working, they abandon whatever political label they may have embraced previously to vote for the opposition.

The Wishful Thinking Club and Tin Foil Hat Society would be likely sources in this election but I think their polls are private and only available to those who have a tattoo of Covid Donnie on their rumps. Seriously, I don't think you'll get many answers from Trump supporters. My guess is that even internal GOP polling is looking bad, which is why Trump is staging his campaign rally tour. The problem is that he's simply preaching to the converted. My guess is that for most of the voters who remain "undecided" at this point, Trump is not really an option. They're torn between voting for Biden, voting for a third party candidate or, worst of all for the GOP candidates in tight races, not voting at all.

Nostradumbass speaks.

I absolutely agree. We really can't even do more than begin to consider all the eventual consequences of this pandemic. I think that one thing that's absolutely true is that we as a nation and society are never going to be "the way we were" in January and February, 2020. Ever.

The choice is not between "shutting down the world" and pretending the pandemic is inconsequential, which is simply untrue. Nobody is even asking much less demanding that. Taking reasonable precautions -- wearing masks, staying socially distanced, not gathering indoors in large groups -- is not a left or right "thing". It's the responsible thing -- like making sure that your kids are strapped into car seats or booster seats in the rear seat of the car rather than riding on Mom's lap in the front because "it's Mom's choice" to put her kids at significant risk of death and/or serious injury in even a relatively minor accident.

As long as you and yours aren't among the dead, it's all good, right? As long as you and yours aren't among those who spend months in the hospital recovering and incurring massive medical bills that health insurance doesn't cover, it's all good, right? As long as you and yours aren't among those "long haulers" who suffer physical and psychological symptoms that prevent them from returning to work, it's all good, right? As long as you and yours aren't among those who suffer what might be permanent health conditions that limit their quality of life, it's all good, right?

Gase and Trump may very well go down in flames about the same time. Gase is supposedly going to "evaluated" by the Jests brass over the next couple of weeks, so he could very well be gone by November 1.

This isn't 2016. He's not running against Hillary Clinton. He's also not "the new guy on the block". Trump is the incumbent who has failed to deal effectively with the pandemic, which has not only killed over 215,000 Americans, but has brought economic hardship and outright disaster to tens of millions of Americans. Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush were the last two incumbents to face re-election in poor economies, and neither won. Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are spiking around the country and Trump's economy is in far worse shape, but he keeps bragging about how he "beat the China flu" and how the economy is great because the stock market is up ... and the dumbass is still touting the "make America great again" slogan like he hasn't been the guy in the Oval Office for the last four years.