SoTier

I think you are misinterpreting why many were people were surprised by Josh Allen. Lots of rookie QBs show flashes of what they might be able to do at some point, but they never develop the skills they need. What makes Allen special is that he actually has done every single thing he needed to do, not just to become a competent QB but an elite one, including learning how to master his emotions during games. Name another QB in the last 20 years who started as raw as Allen who has actually developed into an elite QB. I can't think of anyone. I think that maybe Cam Newton came in as raw as Allen but he never developed into an elite passer although he was successful as a QB. All the other elite/great QBs who have come into the league since 2000 have come in pretty well started as QBs. Most first round QBs described as being "raw" have busted, including JP Losman, EJ Manuel, and Dwayne Haskins.

I think your relative was voicing a very common opinion, especially by professionals. Allen was so far behind the QBs taken before him in 2018 that even the great strides he made in 2019 just made him somewhat "above average". He was still being dismissed coming into 2020. There were even some at the beginning of last season who were convinced that he would "regress" in 2021. What's Allen's done is really remarkable.

Previous bad behavior by sports stars suggests differently ... Ray Lewis pled guilty to obstruction of justice in the stabbing deaths of 2 men in 2000. The next season he was named Defensive Player of the Year. In 2003, Kobe Bryant was charged with sexual assault but the charges were dropped and he settled out of court with the victim. He also issued an apology. In 2009 and 2010, Ben Roethlisberger was accused of rape by two different women, one in Nevada and one in Georgia. The Nevada case was settled out of court. The DA in the Georgia case declined to prosecute because he didn't think he could get a conviction and because the plaintiff requested that the criminal charges be dropped. She did not recant her story nor did she settle out of court with Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger was suspended for the first 6 games of the 2010 NFL season. Winning "fixes" just about everything ... at least if a player isn't convicted of conspiracy to commit murder or murder itself. Rae Carruth was convicted of conspiring to kill his pregnant girlfriend, and Aaron Hernandez was convicted of murdering his fiance's sister's boyfriend. He was later charged but acquitted of murdering two other men. We'll have to see how things shake out for Watson. My guess is that if he returns to being the QB he was in 2020, fans will conveniently forget his bad behavior.

I disagree with your analysis. Most QBs who come into the NFL with as many issues as a passer as Allen had as a rookie never become starting NFL QBs, much less elite ones. He had raw talent, but so do lots of guys who never make it. That he has been able to transform himself into an accurate, disciplined superstar is simply amazing, and is a testament to his drive, self discipline, and work ethic.

I think that a lot of people have forgotten how good Watson was. He played in 54 games between 2017 and 2020. He completed more than 67% of his passes for 14500+ yards, 104 TDs, 36 INTS, and averaged 269+ yards passing per game. He was the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2017 and made the Pro Bowl each of the last three seasons he played. In 2020, he lead the league in passing yards, yards per attempt, and yards per catch. He threw for 33 TDs and 7 INTs and 4800+ yards on a team that went 4-12 because they had no defense and horrendous coaching. The only other young QBs on his level through 2020 were Mahomes and Allen. Add Herbert and Burrow to the mix after 2021. Mayfield isn't even in the conversation with those QBs. He's probably better than Goff and/or Wentz, but not by much.

If your team is built to beat the best at its best, it should be able to beat lesser teams, and until they prove otherwise, the Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders are still behind the Chiefs. As long as the Chiefs have Mahomes and Reid, they're going to set the bar for the rest of the AFCW and most of the AFC, too, just as Brady and Belichick did for so many years. A future HOF QB coached by a future HOF HC is a prescription for winning a lot of games.

I totally agree. You shouldn't pass on a great CB prospect for a lesser WR prospect just because your team needs a WR more -- and vice versa. Sometimes need and availability coincide, which is great, but when they don't, you have to be flexible. IMO, #25 is a perfect spot to find a top CB, WR or OL (except maybe LT), so I'll be good with the Bills taking a prospect to fill one of those positions.

^^^ I'd guess that most OLers who start as rookies, even first rounders, get schooled with some regularity their first year -- and improve significantly in their second and third seasons. Apparently some posters think this way. I'm sure that these same critics started out in their careers as top notch performers in their first year.

Probably because he's not that good. He lost his starting job to Tannehill who sure wouldn't be confused with Mahomes or Allen. Fitz is still under contract to the Commanders IIRC.

#25 is a perfect spot to get a quality DB.

If the Bills win a Super Bowl in the next couple of years, a short stint in cap jail will be worth it -- that's assuming they get caught. Teams like the Pats, Chiefs, Steelers, and Ravens among others are always contenders, so the cap can be managed. It's all about giving the big contracts to the right players at key positions and filling other positions with younger, cheaper players mostly acquired through the draft. Of course, having an elite QB sure helps.

The way that many serious athletes take care of themselves today, it's entirely possible that Miller could be effective for most of his contract, but that's not why he was signed. We all know that Miller was signed to bring a Lombardi home to Buffalo. This is the kind of move an organization seriously determined to win a Super Bowl makes. Absolutely. Look around the league at all the teams that have built dynasties during the salary cap era, namely the Patriots, Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers. Those teams have been perennial playoff teams and serious SB contenders for most of the last two decades. There are numerous other teams that have been pretty good for most of this century, too, so the salary cap is not really an impediment to building a winning team. OTOH, there are several teams that have been perpetual bottom feeders for a better part of the last two decades, despite free agency and the salary cap preventing the "have" teams from hoarding all their talent. Those perpetual bottom feeders use the salary cap as an excuse -- as the Bills once did -- to mask the incompetence and mismanagement on the part of ownership/management.

Right-o. The Bills 17 year playoff drought was because they amassed top-notch FO and coaching staffs and added so many great players that they were always in "cap hell". If you believe that, can I interest you in a slightly used but fairly recently rehabbed bridge over Chautauqua Lake I have for sale?

I wanted Miller so bad in that draft! Better late than never!!!

The ironic part of this is that the commentators on NFLN were just talking about how the Rams were probably going to re-sign Von Miller ... and then the news just exploded! Woohoo!

HOLY CRAP!!!!

My point is simply that there haven't been any QBs who improved significantly because they were put in a better scheme -- or even on a better team. QBs show what they can do early on, and where they are 3 or 4 years into their starting careers is about where their ceiling is. The best ones may get better because they get smarter with experience, but I don't buy the idea that 5 or 6 years into a career some QB who's been only decent is suddenly going to emerge as an elite talent as a signal caller. Mayfield hasn't shown a lot of growth as a quarterback or as a leader in his four seasons in Cleveland, especially compared to how much Allen and Jackson have improved since they were all drafted in 2018.

I disagree. I can't think of a single QB in this century who went from decent to great because of a scheme or team change. Matthew Stafford was great in Detroit but was dismissed by many because of the crappy franchise he played for but he was also great with the Rams, only with a good enough team around him to make him a winner. Both Alex Smith and Kirk Cousins have been well above average QBs throughout their careers. They were both better when they were on teams that suited them better scheme and talent wise, but they weren't trash even when they were on lesser teams. In Mayfield's case, as the #1 pick in his draft class, if he's not an elite QB then he's going to be a disappointment. I think that it's obvious that he isn't going to be elite, and maybe he's not ever going to be better than a Alex Smith or Kirk Cousins level QB, a very good starting NFL QB but not a true franchise QB even as good as Stafford or Ryan or Roethlisberger in their primes.

The Saints, Eagles or Panthers work for me. Actually, just about any NFC team except the Cowboys works for me. Just as long as he's out of the AFC.

Apparently some ham sandwiches aren't quite as indictable as others.

Deny it all you want, but Upstate New York would be an economic basket case without New York City and its environs. New York City and its suburbs have about 64% of the State's population. New York City area residents and out-of-state residents who work in New York City produce about 82% of the state's income tax revenue. New York State contains the headquarters of 54 Fortune 500 companies, and 42 of those are headquartered in New York City. All but 2 of the other 12 Fortune 500 companies headquartered in New York State -- Eastman Kodak and Corning -- are headquartered in the New York City suburbs.

Farmers, villages, factories used to dump their sewage and other waste into any convenient river or creek -- and that continued into the not so distant past, like the 1970s. I grew up in Gowanda where the former Moench Tanning Company and the Peter Cooper Glue Factory used to dump their waste into the Cattaraugus Creek upstream from the village. The odor of decomposing animal parts and the chemicals used to process them into leather and glue permeated village, especially in the summer. The Cuyahoga River in Cleveland famously caught on fire in 1969. It's likely that the highly polluted Buffalo River could have also caught fire. That happened all over the country until the Clear Water Act of 1972 started the long fight to clean up waters in the US, which is still going on. Decomposing organic matter, like carcasses and sewage produce methane, which can bubble up through water. I'm sure that millions of Downstate residents are crying in their beers over your protest. Without the New York City metro, the rest of the state would be on a par with Mississippi, New Mexico, and West Virginia in most metrics. New York isn't alone in this situation. States from Massachusetts to Colorado to Washington to Arizona would all be backwaters if not for their dominant major metros. Why would anybody ever go to Nevada if not for Las Vegas?

^^^ This isn't rocket science, folks. "Downstate" and "Upstate" are terms that have traditionally been used to differentiate NYC and its suburbs, including Long Island, from the rest of New York State. Essentially, any part of New York State north of NYC was considered "Upstate". As NYC's suburbs expanded northward into Orange and Putnam Counties, more and more people began to think of these as part of Downstate. Terms like "Western New York" or "Central New York" or the "Finger Lakes" or the "Southern Tier" or "the Adirondaks" were traditional terms that the local inhabitants, media, businesses, government officials, etc used to describe their local areas of New York, primarily in "Upstate". Because these weren't official, different local people/organizations defined themselves differently, frequently overlapping some other areas. Even using "Upstate" to refer to a specific area north of the NYC metro is simply a local convention. None of these self-assigned descriptions are "written in stone". At some point, New York State officially defined Upstate and Downstate for administrative purposes. The Department of Economic Develop later (late 1970s or early 1980s) divided New York State into smaller regions like the Capital District, the North Country, Hudson Valley, Allegany, Leatherstocking, etc. This was for economic development and promoting tourism. Those are "official" in the sense that NYS created and continues to use them, but some other NYS agencies like ENCON or Department of Mental Hygiene have their own designations . They don't necessarily conform to what local people consider their area. I live in Chautauqua County. My area is part of "Western New York" and the "Southern Tier" as well as the official "Chautauqua Allegany" region for tourism and economic development. The Genesee Valley can be considered part of "Central New York" or the "Finger Lakes". It might also be considered part of "Western New York" by some local people. Both are part of "Upstate New York", but some people might quibble about that, depending upon their perspective. It's essentially TOE-may-doe versus to TOE-mah-toe.

I'm sure there are people in Buffalo who don't think Josh Allen is a great QB, either. People are entitled to their opinions. When the Texans had a competitive team around him, Watson played well enough to go head to head with Mahomes (2019), and he was better than Allen at that point. In 2020, Watson was the only reason that the Texans were even competitive after Bill O'Brien sent most of their best players elsewhere. I like Tyrod Taylor, but neither he nor Davis Mills are in the same universe, talent-wise, as DeShaun Watson. You can dislike Watson for his off-field behavior but don't denigrate his on-field talent because of it. Talent in some endeavor and morality/decency/honesty/etc in private life are not related. Some of our greatest heroes, in sports and in other spheres, were disgusting human beings outside of the spotlight. BTW, people used to say that Matthew Stafford couldn't win "the big game" ... until he had the opportunity to play for a good team. I don't care whether you're talking Brady or Rodgers or Mahomes or Allen, every QB needs support from his team. Watson didn't have that in 2020 in Houston. I can't seem him getting that in Seattle, either, unless the Seahawks clean out the FO and coaching staff. Pete Carroll needs to retire IMO.

The Seahawks FO built a SB team but never figured out how to sustain it when they had to pay an elite QB. For whatever reason, they figured that Wilson was so good he didn't need protection (ie, OL) and nor a lot of weapons, and they sank too many resources into the defense like the Jamal Adams trade. They seem to be clueless about how to manage the salary cap. Russell Wilson is my second favorite QB behind guess who. I'm glad he's escaped the hot mess that the Seahawks have become. I have and will continue to always root for Russ except when he plays the Bills.