SoTier
-
Posts
5,101 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Gallery
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by SoTier
-
-
If they were tanking they wouldn't have brought back Tyrod. Unfortunately what we are doing is worse. We are shooting for mediocrity. We are in the same place we have been for 20 years: Hoping beyond hope we MAYBE make a wild card if we have a miracle season and all of the cards fall right. The Bills are a case study for how not to run a franchise. If you are bad then be bad and get good draft picks and rebuild. If you are good then go for the Super Bowl. There should be no in between. Living in the in between is why we have been so bad for so many years.
This is BS. No team has ever gone from cellar dweller to Super Bowl winner in a single season for the very simple reason that if a team jettisons its talent in order to tank, it will take years to rebuild it. That's especially true in the present NFL.
Use your head for something besides keeping your ears apart. A football team needs 53 players, not just a QB. A Super Bowl team needs real talent at numerous key positions and a lot of luck. There are only 7 rounds in the draft. About half of draft picks bust or fail to live up to expectations. The average career length for NFL players is just over 3 years IIRC, although that number was from a few years ago, so it may be a little longer. Then there's injuries and suspensions for rules violations. The salary cap imposes a limit on how much a team can spend in salaries in any given season. Rookie contracts for first rounders last for 5 years and for others only 4 years. Too many veteran players are not going to want to sign with a losing team if they can sign with a team with a realistic chance to make the Super Bowl -- and a team with recent playoff runs and repeated Super Bowl appearances constitutes a "realistic chance" as opposed to a team that went 0-16 the previous year, which is why Chris Hogan, Stephon Gilmore, and Mike Gillisless are all Patriots. Oh, and let's not forget the quality of scouting, drafting, and coaching.
Moreover, there's no guarantee that there's a franchise QB in any draft. In 2002, neither David Carr nor Joey Harrington were any good. In 2007, 2010, and 2013 none of the QBs were better than backups. In 2006, Jay Cutler was the best of a poor lot, although some considered him a franchise QB for a while.
Also remember:
- In the 2001 draft, Michael Vick was the #1 pick, but Drew Brees was the best QB, first pick in the 2nd round (or what would be the end of the first round today).
- In the 2004 draft, #1 pick Eli Manning was drafted and then traded to the Giants for #4 pick Phillip Rivers and a carload of draft picks. E Manning has won 2 Super Bowls with the Giants but since Rivers has only been there as a spectator, it's unlikely the streaky Manning would have done better.
- In the 2005 draft, while Alex Smith was the #1 pick, Aaron Rodgers was the best QB at #18.
- In the 2008 draft, Atlanta took Matt Ryan at #3 and Baltimore took Joe Flacco (who was Super Bowl MVP) at #18.
- Despite all the hoopla about Indy tanking to get Andrew Luck in 2012, the best QB to come out of the 2012 draft was third rounder Russell Wilson who has already won a Super Bowl. Luck has not matured significantly beyond what he was as a rookie/sophomore QB, and he might not be as good a QB today as Tannehill (#12) and Kirk Cousins (4th round) who have matured professionally.
The Bills have been bad for nearly 20 years because the FO has been far more interested in making profit than in winning football games, and no QB is going to rescue the team from that reality.
-
The Redskins FO is as dysfunctional as Buff's has been
- How many times have the Redskins made the playoffs in the last 17 years?
- How many times has the team won more games than it lost in a season?
- Have they been continually drafting first round DBs and RBs for the past 20 years only to get rid of them after their rookie contracts rather than pay them?
- Have Redskins coaching staffs lasted more than 2.6 years before changing out over the last 17 years?
On a dysfunctionality scale, only Cleveland comes close to the Bills FO.
- Correct. And the Luck contract has doomed the Colts to failure until he is gone.
This is the swing that will happen in the NFL. I can foresee the QB glory being severely diminished. Only large market teams, with the exception of Green Bay due to their heritage, will be allowed to have their QBs call penalties and such like Brady. After a few teams like the Raiders, Ravens, Cardinals, and Colts shoot themselves in the foot with big big contracts to decent QBs, the league take the total spotlight off the QB. It won't disappear but it will be less. The only good QB "strategy" is to only pay a below average salary and build the rest of the roster or strike gold on the rookie contract.
They wouldn't have been able to afford both in their prime if Flacco wasn't on his rookie contract.
This sounds like the prediction that pundits made about 15 years ago about the effect of the salary cap on teams being able to regularly field winning teams. Teams like NE, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Kansas City, etc weren't supposed to happen. Well, guess what, they still do. Unless the NFL bans the forward pass, teams aren't letting their QBs walk, and so QBs are going to get paid, even if the league has to exempt QBs from the salary cap.
-
There are lot of doom sayers on the board, and it's not that I don't respect their opinion; it's just that I don't agree. Look at it this way: last year we had the 10th best scoring offense, and considering that the receiver position, with Watkins' out for half the year and sub par for the other 8; Woods missing substantial time, leaving Goodwin as the healthy guy; well, the trio of a healthy Watkins with the additions of Zay Jones, and Andre Holmes just have to be superior. When you add in things like a more seasoned Tyrod, an improved O line, and in all probability better coaching, well, IMO signs look pretty good for a very good offense.
On the much criticized D, the switch to a 4-3 is a winner! The line has a good chance to be one of the tops in the league. LB's have new blood with high potential, and the DB's are stronger in 3 of the 4 spots.
I know, lots of guys belittle the posts of an admitted optimist, but I believe that with good health, my projections above have an excellent chance at fruition.
I think it's a lot less "doomsayers" and much more "let's see what he actually does", especially among those of us who've been fans for decades and have seen this hype for new coaches over and over again. McDermott comes into a much better situation, talent-wise, than any of his predecessors with the Bills in this century except for Ryan. If he's a decent HC, he'll do more with it than Ryan.
-
I agree but think this year will be rough: New coaches, new players, new systems.
This is an excuse the Bills faithful trot out every time the team hires a new head coach, and since they change HCs every 2 or 3 years, the faithful remain placated. As long as the fans continue to fill the stadium and buy merchandise, the Bills are going to continue to do what they've been doing for the last 17 years ... what they've done for most of their history except for the brief time in the "Glory Years". Why would they spend big bucks to put an improved product on the field when the fans fill the stadium for an inferior product that costs less to produce?
For those who are younger and might not remember, it wasn't all that long ago that both Cincinnati and Arizona were as much perennial bottom feeders as the Bills. IIRC,the fans in Cinci, and maybe in Phoenix, too, held new stadium approvals hostage to promises of improved performance based on the teams getting serious about fielding winners.
Even the Bills "Glory Years" had their roots in fan discontent. It might be hard to believe, but support for the team -- and its losing ways -- deteriorated in the mid-1980s to the point where usually only about 30k fans filled then 80k seat Rich Stadium. I think that the Bills sold fewer than 20k season tickets. Back then, teams actually depended upon ticket sales for much of their profit, so the lack of fans in the seats at last encouraged Wilson to bring in Polian and upgrade the organization ... especially when the long term lease the Bills had on Rich meant they couldn't pull up stakes and find another sucker city like teams do today.
As long as Bills fans continue to make excuses for poor team management and to fill the stadium every Sunday, nothing is really going to change with how the Bills do business.
I know that is a very popular outlook on this board but many coaches and teams have success in year 1 in today's NFL. It's about how good the staff can get the scheme to adjust to players strengths rather than players adjusting to a scheme.
As far as too many new players/not enough talent, I completely disagree.
Offense we have all 5 OL back, and a potential upgrade at RT. And we have our 4 top offensive weapons now going into year 3 TOGETHER,Taylor, Sammy, Shady and Clay.. Added a stud FB in Dimarco. And upgraded our WRs. Sammy-Zay-Holmes> Sammy-Woods-Goodwin. Our only hit came at backup RB, the easiest position where an unknown can come in and replicate TD Mikes success. Overall we improved an already dangerous offense...
Defense did experience some losses but we have leaders at every level. Kyle , Lorenzo and Hyde all have natural leadership qualities and are very respected vets. Shaq,Dareus,and Hughes are now in a scheme that they are perfect for and should have huge bounce back years. Adolphus is a great fit as well.
So DL-upgrade
We lose Zach Brown at LB but gain Ragland, imo a natural MLB that I can see having an immediate impact and storming on the scene. He will add a nastyness to the middle of that D. We add Hodges who is coming off a fantastic year, so essentially Ragland /Hodges> Brown
LB-Upgrade
Safety we upgrade big time. Poyer and Hyde are much better than Graham and Duke or Colt Anderson.
CB is the only group on D we MIGHT have downgraded but I could also see it being an upgrade. Seymour > Robey. Darby is Darby and I feel White can be more Consistent than Gilmore. Not to mention they will benefit greatly from the new scheme.
I just don't see the lack of talent that many on here are so adamant about
I totally agree. This team is significantly better talent-wise than the teams all of the Bills previous new HC inherited in this century. It has both a functional offense and defense. Even the team Ryan inherited, which had a good defense, lacked a competent offense. This one has the talent to be decent on both sides of the ball if it gets competent coaching.
Keep in mind, the Bills don't have to good enough to win a Super Bowl this year. They just have to be good enough to get double digit wins, something they haven't done since 1999.
Reading the media, and the Pegula hires (with both teams) they seem too change what they want in FO hires. Then hire the first people who meet their new criteria. This board had a lot of Rex lovers. And the McD and Beane love is no different. Your points above for the most part make sense in the sense of the Bills philosophy over many regimes. And 2 owners. I still believe in the unpopular view that Russ Brandon owns the owners ears and eyes. He must go. The new regime gets full support until proven otherwise. The gameday coaching is critical. And why is Crossman still employed? My first negative on this regime. Lets hope the new regime can get it done. The offseason accolades is pure fluff. Dareus made comments that lead me too believe this team will be different and every player will be held accountable. That was not fluff.
I agree, especially about Russ Brandon. Previous to joining the Bills, Brandon worked on dismantling the Florida (now Miami) Marlins baseball team after it won the 1997 World Series by selling off talent to make more profit. That career stop is conveniently missing from Brandon's current on-line bios BTW. It's like his professional career started when he joined the Bills.
FYI, in 1997, the Marlins had the 7th highest opening day salary total out of 28 MLB teams. They took the NL wild card in their division and won the World Series. In 1998, they ranked 20th out of 30 MLB teams and compiled the worst record in MLB history for a defending World Series champ.
-
Are you aware that Terry Pegula is the owner and that Jeff Littman is no longer associated with the team?
How have the Pegulas changed the Bills' FO philosophy?
- Overdorf is still in charge of "cap management", which can best be described as replace pricey stars/vets with much cheaper rookies and never weres and hope for the best. Terrence McGee for Antoine Winfield ... Zay Jones for Robert Woods ...
- The Bills preferred to let 2012 first round DB, Stephon Gilmore, who made the Pro Bowl in 2016, leave, which is exactly what the Bills did with 1999 first round DB Antoine Winfield, 1999 second round WR Peerless Price, 2001 first round DB pick Nate Clements, 2003 first round RB Willis McGahee, 2006 first round safety Donte Whitner, 2007 second round LB Paul Posluszny, 2009 second round DB Jairus Byrd, 2009 second round LG Andy Levitre, 2010 first round RB CJ Spiller, and 2013 second round WR Robert Woods. The Bills have also let other top players as well as key role players leave through FA or trades rather than pay them ... in 2017 as well as in the past.
- Who did the Bills have on the roster to replace Peerless Price in 2003? Who did they have to replace Chris Hogan in 2016? How many years did it take to replace Pat Williams at DT or Ruben Brown at LG or Jason Peters at LT? So, how long will it take for the Bills to fill Sammy Watkins' spot when he signs with another team next season?
- They're on their third HC since purchasing the team in the fall of 2013. As somebody said, Ryan was supposed to be this era's Chuck Knox. When it turned out he wasn't, the Bills went back to their "tried and true" philosophy of hiring a cheaper HC with a mediocre record and limited experience.
Sorry, dude, but I just can't see significant differences between the behavior of the Bills FO under Ralph Wilson's ownership and the Pegulas' ownership. Maybe I'm just getting pessimistic in my old age. Maybe I've just spent enough time in the working world to realize how impossible it is to change corporate/organizational culture without a willingness to shed some blood at the very top of the food chain. That the Pegulas have owned the Sabres for several years longer than they've owned the Bills and have failed to get that organization squared away doesn't seem to bode well for the Bills, and that includes McDermott.
Hopefully, I'm dead wrong but I'm not buying into anything until I see some results that look different from the results of the last twenty years.
-
They kind of had to be. The contracts given out the last few years have been awful. We can't get out of the Dareus contract if we had to. I like they are being smart with these contracts.
Would people really be upset about losing gilmore if he wasnt a Pat*?
Oh, puh-leez! This has been the Bills FO's excuse for letting key players walk away for 20 years, and in many, perhaps most, of those seasons they weren't even within 10 million $ of the cap even including dead money! I am sick of the Bills organization fielding crappy teams because they either can't or won't manage the salary cap well enough to put a winning team on the field! Maximizing profit is a whole lot more important at OBD than winning games for this entire century!
Jeez maree! It takes real skill to manage to put together only 2 winning seasons and no playoff appearances in 17 years!!!! Even Cleveland's done better than that because they made the playoffs at least once in the last 17 years.
What I'm upset about is constantly watching ex-Buffalo Bills help other teams make the playoffs and play in and even win Super Bowls ...
- Antoine Smith won a Super Bowl with NE.
- Jabari Greer won a Super Bowl with New Orleans.
- Marshawn Lynch won a Super Bowl with Seattle.
- Chris Hogan won a Super Bowl with NE.
- Ruben Brown, Mike Gandy, and Donte Whitner all played in the Super Bowl within the last decade.
Then there's all the former Bills who took Pro Bowl and All Pro honors while helping other teams to make the playoffs during the Bills playoff drought.
I have no idea whether McDermott can be a good HC coach or not, but my gut feeling is that he's doomed to mediocrity at best because he's unlikely to get the support from the Bills FO that he needs in terms of retaining key talent. Oh, they might bring in an expensive FA to excite the fans like Terrell Owens and Mario Williams but they'll let key players already on the roster go and then use the draft to try to fill those holes, leaving McDermott and his staff to rearrange the deck chairs on Titanic.
-
W should have never cut him
I agree. I think if Fitz was the QB in 2013 and 2014, the Bills would have had at least a 9-7 record in 2013 (they went 6-10 with virtually no QB at all). They went 9-7 in 2014 with Manuel and Orton, and by the end of the season, Orton had lost interest in playing in the NFL. They would have made the playoffs in at least one of those years, and possibly both with Fitzy.
He was the perfect example of the Bills organization's willingness to sacrifce wins for profit. They wanted to maximize profits, so they cut Fitz without having any viable QB on the roster. Then they drafted Manuel in the first round even though there wasn't a good QB prospect in entire the 2013 draft and signed Kevin Kolb who couldn't even stay healthy enough to make the first preseason game. I believe Jeff Tuel was the starting QB at the beginning of the season, followed by Thad Lewis, and then Manuel. In 2014, they lured Kyle Orton out of retirement late in preseason, and he eventually replaced Manuel who sucked. The problem was, Orton called it a career about 3 or 4 games before the end of the 2014 season, even though he was still the Bills starting QB.
-
He's a fine coach, you can tell already.
Won't matter without the franchise QB though, sadly enough. We may already have the right qb on our roster, but if we don't he'd better have a plan to get one AT ALL COSTS or he's back to a lifetime coordinator job.
There are a lot of coaches that could have been HOF but were fired after a few years because they didn't have the right qb. We have 2 1st rounders next year, I'd throw in our 2019 1st round pick to make a run at a trade up for a stud qb if I were the coach and could influence my front office enough to do it. Gotta roll the dice baby.
Nonsense. "Fine" coaches make the playoffs even without QBs, as witness Rex Ryan in 2009 & 2010 (Mark Sanchez) and John Fox in 2011 (Tim Tebow). Rex took those Jests teams to the AFC Championship game both years. Fox won a playoff game with Tebow, beating Pittsburgh in OT in the wild card. Neither Sanchez nor Tebow were ever even half as good as Taylor is today.
Minnesota has made the playoffs several times with different HCs when they didn't have anybody resembling a franchise QB, the last time in 2012 with Christian Ponder.
New England won a Super Bowl in Brady's first year as a starter when he replaced an injured Drew Bledsoe, and Seattle went to the AFC Championship with rookie QB Russell Wilson. Neither Brady nor Wilson were "franchise" QBs in those years.
This.
Why can't people just wait until he actually coaches ONE game before annoiting him as the next great coach?
I've heard this SO many times the past 20 years. Seems some never learn.
I totally agree. Same old, same old. I reserve judgement until I see what McDermott actually does as a coach. Ryan came with much better credentials, and he flopped. Jauron and Gailey both had more NFL experience than McDermott and they both failed.
I guess I wouldn't call Taylor a Franchise QB but I feel he can be a Winning QB.
I feel he has a very unique skillset that can be successful in the right scheme and with a defense that isn't so bi polar.
Being that Seattle has had so many prime time games, I've watched enough of Russell Wilson to say he wouldn't have sniffed the divisional Rd of the playoffs without that defense. Yet he's considered a Great franchise QB, because of Carroll and that D.
I think Tyrod has the same potential , hetc does need some help from his defense and his WR to stay healthy though. I just feel he makes enough plays to win games and very very rarely will lose us a game with his knack to not throw ints. Give Taylor the defense we thought we were getting with Rex and not only do we make the playoffs but we'll have a legit shot at making a run in the playoffs.
I agree. If Cinci can make the playoffs with Andy Dalton, KC with Alex Smith, and Miami with Ryan Tannehill, the Bills can certainly do the same with Tyrod if the rest of the team is up to snuff, which, I'm afraid it's not AGAIN. IMO, the problem isn't that the Bills lack a "franchise QB", they lack the commitment to winning on the part of the front office that's needed to assemble and keep the necessary talent. The FO is primarily interested in putting a fancy shine on the same old product with a new coaching staff or new stars or whatever will put butts in the seats.
What if he is really awful the first 2 years?
McDermott won't even get two years. Two months, maybe, and the same posters who are "all in" on McDermott today will be leading the cheerleaders for firing his arse.
-
Thank you Kirby. I have no idea why this board thinks the cap has had anything to do with any decision the Bills have made.
^^^
Because it fits the narrative of incompetence. It's easy for people to think that even if it isn't true. They haven't had to make a cap decision that I remember since Fletcher, Schobel and Pat Williams (at least I think that's the group). Peters could fit in there but they dealt him for a 1st prior to having to make that decision. They've done a fine job with the cap. There isn't a lot of bad dead money sitting there. They haven't had to let anyone go. The Bills don't have a cap problem.
If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, there's a good chance it's a duck.
For your edification, gentlemen, I will list 1st and 2nd round draft picks that the Bills either did not re-sign after their rookie contracts or traded away during their rookie contracts in the last seventeen playoff years:
- 1999-1-Antoine Winfield - signed with Minnesota in 2004, made the Pro Bowl in 2008,2009,2010, 2012 and was named to an All Pro team 3 times.
- 1999-2-Peerless Price - traded to Atlanta in 2003 for first round pick
- 2001-1-Nate Clements - signed with Minnesota in 2007, made the Pro Bowl in 2004.
- 2001-2-Travis Henry - traded to Tennessee in 2005, made the Pro Bowl in 2002
- 2003-1-Willis McGahee- traded to Baltimore in 2006, made the Pro Bowl in 2007 and 2011
- 2006-1-Donte Whitner - signed with San Francisco in 2011, made the Pro Bowl in 2012, 2013, 2014
- 2007-1-Marshawn Lynch - traded to Seattle Seahawks in 2010, made the Pro Bowl in 2008, 2010, 2011, 20112, 2013, 2014, and was named an All Pro once. He also won a Super Bowl ring.
- 2007-1-Paul Posluszny- signed with Jacksonville in 2011, made the Pro Bowl in 2013.
- 2010-1-CJ Spiller - signed with New Orleans in 2015, made the Pro Bowl in 2012.
- 2012-1-Stephon Gilmore - signed with New England in 2017, made the Pro Bowl in 2016
Other infamous instances of the Bills deciding that players weren't "worth paying":
- Ruben Brown, 4 time All Pro and 8 time Pro Bowler with the Bills, signed with Chicago in 2004. He made the Pro Bowl again in 2006 and helped create the wicked ground game that got Chicago into the playoffs in 2005 with rookie Kyle Orton at QB.
- Pat Williams, 3 time Pro Bowler with Minnesota, signed with the Vikings in 2005. Williams, along with Winfield and Clements, helped create a deadly defense for Minnesota that got them into the playoffs despite poor QBing.
- London Fletcher, signed as a FA from ST Louis in 2003, he was released in 2007 and went to make the Pro Bowl from 2009-2012, twice being named All Pro.
- Jason Peters, 6 time Pro Bowler and All Pro, traded to Philadelphia after a contract dispute.
You can make all the excuses that you want for the Bills FO but the plain fact is that the Bills got rid practically every Pro Bowl caliber player they developed during the playoff drought rather than sign them to a second contract, including most of their 1st and 2nd round picks from 1999 through 2012 who weren't busts. Aaron Schobel and Marcell Dareus are among the few exceptions.
What I'd really like to know is how the New England Patriots can figure out how to pay Stephon Gilmour as well as Brady and Gronkowski? How can the Miami Dolphins (who made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and so are much closer to the Bills' talent level) afford Tannehill, Landry, Suh, and Wake?
-
I just don't get how we separate player valuations (salary cap and negotiation) from evaluation (scouting) in a truly meaningful way in order to absolve the money guy from the player decisions. Maybe he doesn't get the full weight but it amazes me that he can stick while so many others have been axed.
I stand by most of us not knowing the breakdown but I'm a bit confused by the process in this specific slice of the front office
That's because you can't separate player valuations from talent evaluations. Fifteen years ago or so, all the gurus in the media were convinced that the salary cap meant the end to dynasties because teams supposedly couldn't pay top talent, especially QBs, and maintain enough quality around them to make the playoffs with regularity. Well, all the gurus were wrong. Teams with truly smart guys working their cap numbers figured out how to do it, which is why teams like NE, PIttsburgh, Denver, Atlanta, Green Bay, KC, etc have continually been able to field playoff teams year in and year out.
The Bills haven't made the playoffs in 17 years because they're clueless about how to manage the cap. They don't have a QB taking a huge bite out of their cap,but they STILL can't retain the talented players they've developed. They're still operating on principles that were proven unsuccessful fifteen years ago. You don't need to know how the Bills FO operates to realize it's not doing its job. The results speak for themselves ... over and over again. Overdorf needs to go .. and all the rest of the good ol' boys at OBD, too.
-
Good post.
Thanks. It's common sense. A franchise QB -- even if he's only as good as an Andy Dalton or Ryan Tannehill -- commands big bucks. The Bills haven't had to pay that freight for the last 20 years, yet they've still regularly failed to retain the talent they've developed. That's not "managing the cap" with anything approaching competency. Teams that are good at managing the cap figure out how to pay Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger or Tom Brady while providing their QBs with protection, targets and a respectable defense. The Bills haven't figured out how to do that even though they haven't had a decent NFL QB since Bledsoe was cut in 2005 ... and it's reflected in their record.
-
I have read here, and other places, he should be canned for his bad contracts...wrong. HE didnt make contract decisions The GM's did. His job is to have the GM come to him and they say "make this work in the cap" that is it.
HE didn't give Dareus an insanely stupid contract, Whaley did. Jim Overdorf is considered to be one of the best in the NFL with the cap. The Next GM needs to keep that in mind and make better decisions on who gets what and for how much, before asking Jim to make it work within the cap.
Not sure why part if that is bold, but meh...
Who, exactly, other than some Bills fans and the organization, considers Overdorf "one of the best in the NFL with the cap"? It's easy to manage the cap when a team does not have an elite/franchise QB, an All Pro LT or an all-world defensive end or a future HOF WR. It's even easier to manage the cap when the team regularly uses its first round picks on DBs to replace the top DBs it's developed and sent packing rather than pay.
The sad state of the Bills franchise over the last twenty years rests squarely on the shoulders of the owner(s) and their suits from the second floor of OBD, and it's not going to improve much until there's a change in attitude and personnel there. Unfortunately, new ownership still hasn't brought all about all of the necessary FO changes needed to set the team on the winning path. Overdorf, among others, needs to go.
-
I think the glaring anomalies found in your stats, OP, say that there's something logically wrong with your methodology. There's no way that Daunte Culpepper or Michael Vick belong in the same category as P Manning, Brady, and Rodgers, and Robert Griffin III, David Garrard, and Josh Freeman certainly belong significantly lower than your numbers say they are. None of them was as consistently good as QBs like Tannehill and Carr, both of whom have been good for longer than these duds who had about 1 good season each in their short starting careers.
I think part of the problem is that QBs with relatively few seasons as starters are being either more severely punished (like Carr and Tannehill) for being on poor teams or more generously rewarded (like Griffin and Freeman, both of whom had 1 good season each) for being on better teams.
Another problem, as Crusher pointed out and which is the real problem, is that your stats don't account for differences among teams. For example, the Miami Dolphins sucked at least until the last year or two of Tannehill's tenure with the team, including poor coaching and poor talent, especially on the OL and among receivers. In contrast, Andy Dalton has always had good coaching, a strong running game, a decent OL ... and AJ Green in Cinci. At the beginning of his career, Phillip Rivers had the luxury of playing on a team overflowing with talent but in recent years, as that talent dried up, Rivers' stats have declined. There's no other position on the football team as dependent on the talent surrounding him than the QB. Every QB needs protection and targets, but those aren't evenly distributed, not only among teams but also on a single team over the course of a long career such as with Rivers or Roethlisberger or Eli Manning.
When/If you figure out how to adequately factor in the length of QBs' careers and how to account for the differing quality of teams QBs play on, then you might be able to get a usable statistical measure without the anomalies.
-
Just keep in mind all lawn mowers fall apart in 2-3 years.
As others have said, not so. I'm a Craftsman fan. My old Craftsman walk behind was 18 years old before it finally needed more than just tuning and blades sharpened. I'm still sorry I put it out on the curb with a 'Free' sign on it rather than have it fixed. My newer Craftsman walk behind is a self-propelled model from 2010. It had its first "professional" tune up (ie, not my simple oil change/new spark plug/have blade sharpened) this past spring. My Craftsman lawn tractor is 18 years old, and aside from about $300 worth of work done to the starter mechanism a few years ago, it's never missed a beat in all that time except for twice when careless drivers ran over things and bent blades. I use it regularly to mow my backyard as well as the large backyards of three elderly neighbors who have only walk behinds. For a couple of years, I used to haul it out to the camp every two or three weeks to mow the 2 acres of lawn we had out there.
-
You might actually be more boring at parties than I am.
Dissertation topics are meant to be boring. In fact, the entire process to get a PhD is a test of endurance -- just how much excrement can a person tolerate without becoming violent to him/herself or, more likely, his/her advisor?
-
What was your PhD thesis on (in 1,000 words or less that won't give me a migraine)
One of the worst thing about University was that the most gifted instructors in the non-STEM areas had no hope of finding employment in the ivory tower.
The female side isn't rushing to sign up for the upper regions of STEM, nor is it carrying it's proportion in the real world. I guess an argument can be made for discrimination but I won't bother with any other theories.
My thesis disputed the idea/myth/stereotype that most of the early settlement of the Great Plains was done primarily by individual families living on isolated homesteads separated from others by long distances. Rather, I argued that most early settlers in the area tended to settle in groups, creating small towns that served as little social and commercial centers from the very beginning. Other communities were created as railroad stops by the Union Pacific RR or as steamboat landings or ferry crossings to facilitate commercial activity. In Nebraska specifically, there seemed to be a tendency for groups, sometimes based on hometown, ethnicity or religious affiliation, to migrate together and create communities out on the prairies ... literally in the middle of nowhere.
I find the lack of women following STEM courses of study in college to be extremely frustrating. My guess is that there's still a strong bias in western culture that discourages women from going into mathematics and science. Specifically, in the US, math education just sucks, which exacerbates the problem. It seems most American students graduate from HS lacking an understanding of fundamental math and/or convinced that they "can't do math" (ie, algebra), so they shut themselves out of most STEM fields.
-
Yes.
I have a PhD in history and used my degree for a few years as an adjunct (ie part time) college prof and middle school teacher before taking some programming classes and switching to Information Technology where for 30 years I made computers jump through the hoops my clients wanted them to jump through (applications programmer).
If I had it to do over again, I'd have definitely gone into engineering. Of course, back when I was in HS, girls didn't go into what we now call STEM (science/technology/engineering/math). Actually, not enough girls go into STEM today. If you're a HS or college student of the female persuasion, ladies, seriously consider STEM majors. If you're a parent, encourage both your daughters and sons to go into STEM. That is where most of the new jobs for the future will be.
-
That dog sure don't hunt in the States...cant believe a CEO would use undocumented meetings as a basis for termination, especially without documented performance improvement goals that were not met. Lawsuit waiting to happen in the states, even in so called "right to work " states.
In terms of tests, I am looking at a new position and had to take a verbal assessment the other day...I had never heard of a subjective verbal assessment. They started with some basic demographic information, and then asked my birthday...and I was floored. I mean here they are asking subjective questions.
I am not exactly a spring chicken anymore, and told the recruiter holy moly are they opening themselves up to an age discrimination suit if my assessment came back negative. I can see in a written, objective test, bias does not matter. But subjective answers and age involved????
The thing is that most people, like CBF don't make waves when they're screwed over, so private employers can get away with this crap easily.
I do believe that asking about your age/race/gender/ethnicity/marital status on job applications is not illegal for private employers, but it is in some states and local jurisdictions, and definitely an invitation to anti-discrimination lawsuits if there's a pattern. It's much harder in public service positions where many states have civil service and anti-discrimination laws for public employees that are stricter than the federal standards.
One thing that employees in toxic situations should do is document all meetings. Use an appointment calendar to mark down your meetings, the attendees, the topics, either electronic (do NOT keep it on company hardware) or hard copied. Be especially detailed about private meetings, especially those with supervisors. Forward emails about your performance, private meetings, goals, expectations, etc. to your private home email.
If you feel you are being harassed because of your gender, race, ethnicity, sexual orientation, handicaps, etc, keep diaries recording the dates and times of all incidents and what happened. If there are witnesses, record their full names in case they leave the employer and need to be tracked down years later. You should record the names of any individuals who you know have suffered the same harassment.
Hard evidence is priceless.
-
Woah!
You may be the only man on that particular hill.
Nope. I agree with mannc. Rivers was horrible last season. At 36 years old, the chances of him improving to become the kind of passer he was 8 or 9 years ago are much less than the chances of Taylor stepping up to become a QB good enough to lead a team to the playoffs. Moreover, what it would take to get Rivers, including whatever the Bills would trade for him plus his 2017 salary, would limit the Bills' ability for improvement elsewhere. At the present time, Rivers wouldn't be a good fit for the Bills: too old, too immobile, too expensive -- and maybe done for.
-
What, exactly, does having $10-12 million in cap space in 2017, but no Maclin possibly get the Bills?
A team doesn't improve unless it adds talent where it's lacking. If they add it for a short term, then they'll have to either re-sign that player or find somebody to replace him. There's no law that says every FA has to be signed to a multi-year contract.
A one year deal for Maclin, as others have pointed out, doesn't impact next year's cap at all, and having Maclin as another target for Taylor may very well mean the difference between the Bills winning 8 games and winning 10. I'll take that even if it's not quite good enough to get the Bills in the playoffs, because the Bills haven't had a double digit win season for as long as they haven't made the playoffs. I'm sick of the Bills losing.
-
“Witness what he did with the secondary in Carolina last year. They lose their linchpin player and they’ve got to play two rookies who aren’t ready to play,” said Polian. “By the end of the year they were performing at a maximum level and he never uttered a negative or cross word through the whole situation. That tells you a lot about what a guy is going to be as a head coach.”
This is one of the reasons why I like McDermott. It wasn't just last year, either. That defense wasn't filled with a ton of big names (at least at the time). Like Josh Norman - he was originally a 5th round draft pick. It wasn't like he was some huge star. McDermott did an excellent job developing him. Back at the start of 2013, Carolina's defense was looked at as filled with a number of lesser known players, not a lot of star power, and they ended up being one of the top defenses in the entire NFL.
Being able to develop players and get the most out of what you have is extremely important IMO, and I think it's something McDermott has been very good at.
I hope this is true because this is what the Bills need. They have had enough talent on the team to make the playoffs for a couple of years now -- and they had it a few other times during the last 17 years, too -- but they've never had a HC who could -- or more importantly, would -- alter his "scheme" to fit the players they've got. That's especially true on the defense where there's been a 4-3/3-4 pendulum with every change of DC it seems. How about the FO hire a HC who wants a DC and OC who are flexible enough to adapt their schemes to the personnel available instead of demanding that square pegs fit into the round holes created by their egos?
-
No doubt. Rivers is a big name and a lot of people like to cling to the past. Let's trade 3 firsts for a 36 year old who has 1 or 2 years left of decent football. Rivers is the only qb to lose to the Browns last year. But somehow those same people will be telling us that the NFL is all about the quarterback and you must have a good one in order to win. It just does not add up.
To underscore your point, here are some teams that have been to the playoffs with QBs no better than Tyrod Taylor and sometimes worse ...
- 2001: NE Patriots won the Super Bowl with second year pro/first year starter Tom Brady. Remember when we all debated whether he was a "flash in the pan"?
- 2002, 2004, 2006: Chad "Noodle Arm" Pennington took the NY Jets to the AFC Championship.
- 2004: Pittsburgh Steelers went 15-1 with rookie Ben Roethlisberger.
- 2005: Chicago went 11-5 and won the NFCN behind rookie Kyle Orton filling in for injured Rex Grossman.
- 2008: Chad "Noodle Arm" Pennington took the Miami Dolphis to the AFCE championship with an 11-5 record after the team went 1-15 the previous season, edging out the NE Patriots (also 11-5) under Brady's sub, Matt Cassel.
- 2009, 2010: Mark Sanchez took the NY Jets to back-to-back AFC Championships.
- 2011: Houston Texans won the AFCS and won a wild card game without a QB after Matt Schaub went down. They finished up with Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, and TJ Yates.
- 2011: Denver Broncos actually won a playoff game on aTim Tebow TD pass in OT.
- 2012: Seattle Seahawks made the playoffs with rookie Russell Wilson, who threw for 100 yards or less in a couple of games.
- 2013: Minnesota Vikings made the playoffs with Christian Ponder as their QB.
- 2013: Philadelphia Eagles made the playoffs with Nick Foles at QB.
- 2015: Brock Osweiler got the Broncos to the playoffs, although he was benched for the playoffs in favor of Peyton Manning.
"Game manager" type QBs like Matt Schaub, Alex Smith and Andy Dalton have led their teams to the playoffs for years. Joe Flacco is a decent QB with a Super Bowl ring to prove it but HOFer he ain't. Brad Johnson won a SB with Tampa Bay. Jake Delhomme got to the Super Bowl. Kurt Warner resurrected his career in Arizona and almost won another Super Bowl. OTOH, Drew Brees won a SB ring in New Orleans but in recent years the Saints have struggled because they haven't been able to build a good enough defense. The same is true for Andrew Luck in Indy.
My point is that it takes more than a great QB to win. Teams can win games and make the playoffs with less than perfect rosters, even at QB. The Bills have tried really hard to disprove that over the last 17 years, but it's true. Just about every year, other teams around the NFL prove this.
-
his late game pick 6s would bother me
Turning into west coast Fitzy
Rivers has a history of not playing well in big games, and that goes back to his early years in the league when SD was stacked with talent on both sides of the ball. Early on, he failed to help get SD playoff wins. More recently, he's failed to help SD get into the playoffs. IMO, he's the opposite of Brady or Rogers who seem to play their best when situations are most crucial.
I think the comparison to Fitzpatrick isn't far off.
-
I've never been that drunk or that high to ever try something like that ... and I never will.
Most likely TANK theory I've heard thus far...
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted · Edited by SoTier
I'm not missing the point. Setting impossible goals and achieving them is the stuff of fiction, not reality. In the real world, setting attainable short term goals sets the stage for accomplishing more ambitious long term goals, and that's true for school children and football teams. A student who doesn't master multiplication is never going to become a mathematician or an economist or an accountant. A football team that doesn't learn how to win the game they're currently playing is never going to go on to the Super Bowl.
Furthermore, the Bills have not been building a wild card team. They've been "building" a team that wins just enough to keep fans happy enough to have respectable attendance while producing plenty of profit. You can see that in the way they've drafted and in the players they've drafted, retained, and sent packing as well as most of the HCs they've hired over the past 17 years.
FYI, a team has absolutely no chance to get to the Super Bowl if it doesn't at least make the playoffs.