SoTier

It's less not knowing football and much more simple homerism that refuses to acknowledge that any team except the Bills can turn around long-term crappiness.

How, exactly, has Pegula "finally got it right for the Bills"? The Bills landed in the 2017 playoffs only because the Colts defenders couldn't tackle Shady in a snowstorm and the Ravens defenders fell asleep on 4th and 12 at the end of the game. The Bills won 6 games in 2018 and, frankly, are lucky they still have a healthy starting QB for the poor offensive talent they put around him. They lost 4 games by 2 TDs or more in 2017 and 6 more by 2 TDs or more in 2018. Maybe the Bills will turn it around in 2019 but there's no guarantee that they will -- and no evidence that the Pegulas have learned much about building a winning football team which starts with building a competent organization. They have certainly failed to do so with the Sabres in their seven years as owners.

This list smacks of simply repeating excuses circulated by the Bills FO to cover their collective backsides for making poor decisions. Don't give me this "They never anticipated losing Wood and Incognito" BS. Yes, Wood's force retirement was an unexpected blow, but Incognito was 36 years old. A competent FO anticipates that 36 year old OLers just might not be around too much longer ... or, heaven forbid, OLers might get injured. Despite losing Incognito and with John Miller having struggled in 2017 and Vlad Ducasse being a career bottom-feeder OG, the Bills finally got around to drafting their one and only 2018 OLer at the end of the fifth round. Technically, the Bills had Tyrod Taylor and Nathan Peterman on the payroll at the beginning of free agency, and then traded Taylor to the Browns a day after the FA began. McCarron was signed after Taylor was traded. If FA WRs chose to sign elsewhere because of the QB situation, that's on Beane/McDermott for choosing to have such inexperienced/incompetent (Peterman) QBs on the roster. Saying that "they were committed to only spending only so much in free agency, because the objective was to free up as much room under the cap as possible" says that they -- Beane, McDermott, Pegula, all the bean-counters at OBD -- were perfectly okay with spending huge amounts of draft capital to get a first round QB but weren't really interested in seeing him succeed. How is that significantly different from the way that the Donahoe or the Brandon/Levy/Jauron or the Brandon/Nix/ Whaley regimes operated -- exciting the fan base with individual FA signings or draft picks but never building a quality team to make those signings worthwhile? As for re-signing Woods, I doubt that the Bills ever had any expectations of doing so. Woods was simply too good to settle for whatever the Bills were willing to offer him. The last top class WR that the Bills drafted and re-signed for the current market rate for #1 WRs was Eric Moulds. While Lee Evans was also re-signed, he had never played as well as expected. It wasn't a case of they couldn't "afford" to re-sign Stephon Gilmore, either. It's that they chose to not to do so because that's been the Bills practice for decades: draft first round DBs, develop them into top players, and let them walk away in FA rather than pay them. Only first rounder Leotis McKelvin, who was never more than a competent DB, was re-signed. Winfield, Clements, Whitner, and Gilmore all left because the Bills decided to draft their replacements rather than pay them. One of the big reasons that I'm not sold on the Beane and McDermott regime being any more successful than their predecessors is that they've done so many things the same way they've been done in the past. They seem to be carrying on the tainted legacy of Russ Brandon of putting the making more profit ahead of winning more games. Before he was hired by the Bills, Brandon's claim to fame was gutting the Florida Marlins the year after they won the 1997 World Series (Fire Sale ). That shouldn't be surprising since they were both hired while he was in charge of the team, so it's likely they share his views about paying for players. From your post, it certainly sounds that way, which to my mind doesn't bode well for building a winning franchise on their watch. The way the entire QB situation was handled in 2018, from not providing Allen with an experienced QB coach to the get-go to keeping Peterman on the roster long after it became clear that the team wouldn't play for him to waiting a month for Anderson and to finally getting around to signing a somewhat competent backup QB only after Anderson got injured doesn't scream "this organization is going to do whatever it needs to do to win games". It says just the opposite. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not jumping on this bandwagon until it proves itself. I've been fooled too many times before by the Bills.

Famous last words, Nostradamus. Think about all the teams that looked like shoo-ins for the playoffs in the preseason -- like Pitt and Jax in 2018 -- that come a cropper for all kinds of reasons other than injury once they started to play the games for real.

So, if neither Allen nor Edmunds improves significantly and the team has another 6 win season, you're okay with that? Really?

1. Edmunds has to improve significantly. Moreover, lots of rookies who play decently fail to improve. Dion Dawkins on the OL is a case in point. The NFL is not college, and the general rule for DTs is that it will take them 2 or 3 seasons to not only master all the techniques but to learn their opponents and how best to beat/neutralize them -- while at the same time the OLers will be concentrating on learning how to best neutralize Oliver. DT is one of the hardest positions to transition from college to pros because a lot of these young studs who got by on their raw talent have to become students of the game in the pros. 2. I have no doubt that the OL will be better than last season but that's because it doesn't seem possible that it could be any worse. That doesn't mean that it will be good. It's simply wishful thinking to believe that it could be good enough to consistently open holes for the running game without having a decent passing game to keep defenses honest. 3. Nick Foles was never sitting at home in October hoping some team would call him. He contemplated retiring after being cut by the Rams in 2016 but re-signed with the Chiefs about a week later. He also has started 36 games prior to re-signing with Philly in 2017, and was named to the Pro Bowl in 2013 when he threw 27 TDs and 2 INTs in Chip Kelly's fast paced offense. Foles played in 3 regular season games in 2017 and 5 in 2018, although they were split between the beginning and end of the season in 2018 IIRC.

The Bills chances for a positive season are dependent upon Allen growing significantly as an NFL QB. If he does that, the Bills should be able to get 8 or 9 wins but if he doesn't improve his passing game as well as demonstrate some mastery of the mental part of the game, which includes learning to run judiciously so that he is less likely to be injured, then not only will the season be a disappointment but the likelihood of him developing into a good/great NFL QB are seriously in doubt. First round QBs who don't make significant improvement as 2nd year starters seldom go on to become successful starting QBs. That's nonsense. Just because fans want to see results on the field before anointing McDermott and Beane the second coming of Levy and Polian doesn't mean that they wish the Bills to fail. Numerous NFL teams bring in new regimes and start winning with regularity within 2 years -- sometimes winning big like Philadelphia -- so it's not unreasonable to expect the Bills to start showing real improvement by their 3rd season into a new regime. What's unreasonable is continuing to make excuses for a regime that shows little improvement. Whistling past the cemetery again, eh? The Bills D was not dominant last season, and it's not going to be all dominant this season. The Bills need to significantly improve their run defense and their pass rush. The Bills anemic running game from 2018 isn't suddenly going to transform into the 2005 Bears simply by improving the worse OL in the NFL last season and adding a 36 year old veteran RB and a rookie, especially if Allen is hurt and can't pad their run stats with his own runs. If Matt Barkley was good enough to be more than a stop-gap backup QB, he wouldn't have been sitting at home in October.

Yada yada. The Bills have been blaming the salary cap for their on-field woes -- and their fans have been accepting that excuse -- for twenty years. You can continue to buy it if you want, but I'm no longer buying the BS the Bills are selling. Either they produce on the field or McDermott and Beane deserve to go the way of all the other failed Bills HCs and GMs over the last twenty years. I'm not going to lionize McDermott and Beane for drafting Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Ford or any of the other youngsters until those players prove themselves on the field, either.

How is this different from McDermott and Beane? McDermott didn't like Watkins, and he was traded and replaced by Benjamin. McDermott didn't like Dareus, and he was replaced, eventually, by Loutelei. McDermott didn't like Taylor, and McDermott attempted to replace him with Peterman in 2017, and then did see him replaced by Peterman in 2018. While there wasn't any indication that McDermott didn't like Glenn per se, certainly he was deemed expendable and was replaced by Dawkins who played poorly enough as a sophomore that there's realistic questions about his role on the 2019 team. I don't think that Bills fans should laugh too much at the Jests and their fans because the Bills have done nothing in 20 years to demonstrate that they are in any way a competent organization. The currrent Bills regime hasn't yet proven their competence either.

And all those great moves got the Bills 6 wins in 2018. If the team doesn't do significantly better on the field, then Beane will be no better than the duds who preceded him in the Bills FO.

As the Bills over the last 20 years demonstrate, pain doesn't necessarily result in gain ... and winning or losing the off-season counts for nothing if you don't win when the games count for real.

We don't know that that's actually true since both McDermott and Beane were hired while Brandon was still in control of the team, and they haven't won anything yet with players they've brought in. I want to see real success on the field, ie double digit regular season wins and playoff appearances more than once every two decades, before I'm willing to say that the current FO is actually better than what the Bills had under Ralph Wilson and Russ Brandon.

I would argue that it wasn't really Nix or Whaley's decision to draft a QB, just the decision which QB from a poor lot. In the 2013 off season, Ralph Wilson died about a month before the draft but he'd been in a final decline throughout 2012 and the fate of the franchise in Buffalo was in question. Russ Brandon was in charge, and he was yet again dedicated to keeping butts in the seats despite the uncertainty ... and there is nothing like a first round QB to fire up a fanbase like drafting a first round QB.

It's entirely within the realm of possibility that that could happen. It might not necessarily be reflected in his stats -- or even in the Bills record -- if the Bills' potential offensive improvement on the OL, running game, and receiving corps materializes but Allen has to improve his passing and his decision making regardless of whether or not his supporting cast is good or not. The quality of play that's acceptable, even encouraging, in a rookie shouldn't still be the norm for a QB at the end of his second season as the starting QB. If Allen isn't significantly better as a QB in December than he was in September -- even if his September was better than his rookie December -- that will be real cause for concern. NFL QBs tend to get better as they gain experience, but at some point, they hit a proverbial wall that defines the upwards limits of their ability. "Busts" hit that wall early on, but most QBs get at least somewhat better in their second and third years as starters, The better the QB, the longer they take to reach that limit. QBs like P Manning, Brady, and Brees seem to never hit that wall. I certainly hope you are wrong, VW82, because if you're right, then Allen will be another first round QB bust. In order to be a genuine franchise QB, one who is elite or close to it, a QB has to absolutely possess "hardwired football instincts" that enable him to almost instantly recognize and process what he sees into action -- appropriate action (ie, a good choice). The closer to the ideal Allen can come, the better QB he will be. If he can't recognize and process what he sees on the field fast enough, he's just a Trent Edwards, an EJ Manuel or a Tyrod Taylor.

I want to see Allen make significant improvement in his mechanics and in his decision making. I want to see that improvement continue throughout the season so that he's a significantly better passer at the end of the season than he started out. I want to see him make more clutch passing plays in the Red Zone. I want to see him run less but more judiciously (and therefore, more effectively). I think if he can do that, his completion percentage will be 60 or better and his TD ratio in the 2/1 range. The hard numbers for passing yards and TDs will depend upon what offensive philosophy the Bills concentrate on (run or pass) and how successful the team has been in improving Allen's supporting cast but the percentages should be about 60 and 2/1. How many games the Bills win depends upon the success of all three phases of the game, and are largely outside of Allen's control. He won't control whether the Bills field a run-heavy offense which will lower his passing stats or the defense lays too many eggs or the special teams suck again. He's not the guy doing the hiring and firing. He's not the one making the game plans or the play calls. All he can do is his job, and if he improves in that role, then he'll be successful whether his team is or not. PS - I didn't include improving his leadership in what Allen needs to do because I think he's already established himself as a leader. He needs to improve his play enough so that his leadership doesn't turn into foolish bravado.

That's his job when he's doing a CBS game. It's not a local broadcast but a national one. If you want to hear Bills-centric broadcast, cut the tv sound and turn on the radio broadcast.

Exactly this. Hard work and good attitude doesn't mean much if players don't have the necessary talent. My biggest gripe about McDermott is that he seems much too willing to forego talent if a player has the right attitude, as exemplified by his insistence on keeping Peterman on the roster.

This. Why is it that so many fans seem to think that moving high first round draft picks to other positions, especially before they've even seen real NFL action, is in any way desirable? If these guys can't play the positions they were drafted for all that well, then the team may decide to try them elsewhere to see if they do better there, and sometimes it works, but usually it just delays the inevitable conclusion that the team drafted a bust. If a team has a pick in the top ten, that pick ought to be used on "made" player -- one who can be expected to come in and start as a rookie at that position -- not one who is some kind of project who needs to learn a new position. The Bills made this mistake when they drafted Mike William #4 in 2002 and tried to make him into a LT when he'd been a RT in college. In that era, LTs and RTs had much more defined roles, and Williams simply didn't have the skill set to be a LT. Playing at RT as a rookie, he did well enough but moving him to the left side where he struggled badly helped derail his career.

Why are they "dumb"? Because you don't like that I don't see the Bills winning more than 9 games? That I think that teams like Miami, the Jets, Cleveland, and Baltimore -- that TSW mavens all believe are trash -- are going to have decent seasons? If you don't like my predictions, post your own -- which you haven't done yet.

Nothing, except that I ALWAYS confuse the Bucs and Jags. I don't know why. I can't blame it on old age as I've been doing it for many years. I'm usually excellent in geography (I once harbored aspirations to be a cartographer since I love maps) and I know where Jacksonville and Tampa Bay are ... I just always confuse their teams. Mea culpa. PS - Thanks. I fixed.

Agreed. Barkley has started more games in his five years in the league than Anderson has started in his last five years, so relevant experience is about the same. More importantly, Anderson never exhibited a brilliant grasp of the game when he was playing. Those guys who get by on their brains because they lack enough physical talent are guys like Keenum or Cousins or Taylor. The Bills have Barkley to give Allen and Jackson a "veteran's perspective". They both need to work with Dorsey to fix their mechanical flaws (if they can) and become better NFL passers.

I'm surprised that nobody brought up Mark Sanchez's bold prediction yesterday on Total Access that the Jests would go 13-3 ... only because they have the division already won and allowed the Bills to win the last game since they rested their starters. My bold predictions are ... The Miami Dolphins win between 5 and 8 games, and aren't in running for the "tanking for Tua" sweepstakes after mid-season. The NY Jests DO NOT win 13 games ... maybe 9 but not double digits. The Bills fail to win 10 or more games for the 20th straight season. NFL DCs do not effectively figure out how to stop Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense so the Browns and Ravens fight it out for the AFCN and both make the playoffs. Jameis Winston plays all sixteen games but the Bucs win enough to lose out in the "tanking for Tua" sweepstakes by a hair. Marcus Mariota plays all sixteen games but the Titans win the "tanking for Tua" sweepstakes anyways. Kliff Kingsbury gets fired before the season ends when his "Air Raid Offense" crashes and burns despite the heroics of Kyler Murray, David Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald. NFL DCs finally figure out Jimmy Garoppolo because he finally plays more than 5 games in a season ... and proves once again the genius of Bill Belichick in netting a high pick for another mediocre QB. The Seattle Seahawks re-emerge as the true power in the NFCW and serve Belichick and Brady with poetic justice with a goal line INT in the closing seconds to cement their second Super Bowl win under Russell Wilson who is named SB MVP.

Agreed. There's absolutely no proof that Anderson did more than offer some advice to Allen. More than likely what led to Allen's improvement was his forced seat on the bench because of injury. The crew on GMFB discussed how sitting and observing for several games after having started a few games significantly helped Sam Darnold with his understanding of what was happening on the field. That both rookies looked a lot better -- seemed to actually have a better idea of what they should do -- after they came back from warming the bench and just watching for a while suggests that was the real reason for improvement. When you think about it, that's probably why most young QBs tend to improve at least marginally as second year starters: they've had a baptism of fire as it were, and then have an off-season to think about what they did/try to improve their skills/better understand what they're watching on film, and then they go back out to try again -- and most of them have figured out enough to play better while the good ones play a whole lot better.

Thanks for the article. I find it incredible how so many people can forgive/dismiss Rigas for the misery his and his sons' crimes caused so many people while at the same time condemning some stupid/addicted guy robbing a convenience store or stealing a car.

Why do you assume that Anderson would make a good QB coach? Because he gave Allen some pointers last season when the Bills had a QB coach who wasn't qualified to be one? They have a real QB coach in Dorsey, so they don't need an apprentice QB coach. Since the Bills went into last year's regular season with 3 QBs with 5 total NFL starts among them, I doubt that the Bills are all that consumed with adding a third experienced QB since Josh Allen already has 11 starts and Matt Barkley's had 7 starts over 5 years. Moreover, as last year's TC and preseason amply demonstrated, preseason "competition" is a joke when the HC's favored candidate is incompetent. If you think that McCarron made a stink just because he was an idiot, guess again. He complained because he wasn't given a fair shot at becoming the starter -- and the team knew it. That the team instantly played better when the completely inexperienced Allen took over in the 2nd half of the season opener for Peterman proves that. I'll take a "rookie QB with mechancial issues", which described Josh Allen last season and describes Tyree Jackson this season, over a QB whose only positives are knowing the playbook and trying hard. Learning the playbook and trying hard isn't only the province of veterans.