SoTier

I think that the real problem with picking QBs is that the evaluators seem to put way too much emphasis on arm strength and size to the neglect of other qualities that are much more important to NFL success. I think the most glaring -- and embarrassing -- example is the prejudice against shorter QBs. Two of the very best NFL QBs in the NFL -- Drew Brees and Russell Wilson -- weren't drafted in the first round because they were considered "too short". One of the biggest busts in NFL history was overall first draft pick in the 2007 draft, 6 foot, 6 inch JaMarcus Russell. The real key to a QB's success is what's between his ears. There are lots of tall QBs. There are lots of big throwers. There are lots of athletic runners. What there's not a lot of is guys who can almost instantly assess what they see on the football field, make the right decision of about how to react to that situation, and then execute whatever action they need to do to be successful. NFL professionals don't seem to be able to identify collegiate QB with these abilities with any kind of consistency, which is why selecting QBs seems to be such a hit or miss proposition.

Well, Firechance's comment on Allen was fair, and it's also disingenuous for posters to tout Allen's fourth quarter comebacks without acknowledging Atllen's own responsibility in creating the need for those comebacks. Moreover, just because a poster is skeptical about about a coach or player's ability/quality/future doesn't mean that he or she hates that player or coach and wants to see him fail.

Are you personally offended that a poster DARES to view Allen with any kind of objectivity rather than subscribing to your "Josh Allen can do no wrong" hero worship mantra?

The success or failure of any offensive (or defensive) system usually depends upon the pieces that the OC (or DC) has to work into that system. I think that in Roman's case, neither Kaepernick nor Taylor were good enough to sustain it. What I got from the ESPN article is that neither Winston nor Mariota developed enough since their rookie/sophomore seasons to be considered competent NFL QBs much less than excellent ones. Neither seems to have improved/overcome some of their worse flaws, and the situations of their teams -- coaching changes, talent levels, etc -- only obscure their failures. In Mariota's case, his frequent injuries have been used as an excuse for him, but at least some of those injuries occurred because he takes too many sacks because of flaws in his own game.

Why would anybody think that there is some miracle formula for developing quarterbacks -- or other positions? People are different and they respond differently to the same teaching/training methods. Maybe McVay isn't the genius his fans think he is -- or maybe Goff (and Trubisky) actually aren't truly as talented as people think. One or both of those scenarios may or may not be true. Long before Sean McVay, coaches guided young QBs -- and their teams -- to success by tightly orchestrating their play. Russell Wilson started from the get-go as a rookie. Ben Roethlisberger was thrown into the first game of his rookie season when Tommy Maddox was injured.

If the GOAT doesn't play in NE next season, then he'll be playing a whole lot more golf from July through January than he has for the previous 20 years. He's going to retire a Patriot.

If that's your intended point, then you haven't been making it very well. What it sounds like is that you are arguing the "poor Kaepernick has been shafted" line. As for Antonio Brown, he's been accused of rape/sexual assault, not convicted. In fact, he hasn't been charged with a crime but sued in civil court which suggests that it's a she said/he said situation without much evidence. Are you advocating that Brown should be punished simply because he's been accused of a heinous action?

I think that Kaepernick was definitely black-balled, but the hard reality is that he wasn't a very good QB before he became controversial. Like many young QBs, Kaepernick looked like a superstar early on when he took over the Niners for an injured Alex Smith, but hit his talent ceiling fairly early on. Veteran QBs who are good enough to be even lower level starters like Tyrod Taylor, Case Keenum, Ryan Fitzpatrick, etc aren't unemployed. Kaepernick's current situation is reminiscent of complaints by Jeff George years ago when teams lost interest in a QB with a great arm and no brain and picked JAG veterans like Barkley or obscure rookies/second year pros over him.

Very simple: Russ Brandon took control of the Bills in 2006. Between 2006 and 2013, the Bills were 49-80 with no winning seasons, but Pegula retained Brandon while easing out most of the "old regime" in the Bills organization. Between 2014 and 2017, the Bills went 33-31 with 2 winning seasons and a loss in a WC playoff game. For that mediocre record, Pegula promoted Brandon to boss of both the Bills and the Sabres. If Brandon hadn't sexually harassed the wrong Sabres employee, he'd still be charge of the Bills and the Sabres even if his teams seemed "genetically predispositioned" to losing on the field/ice.

That's only "smart" if you are NOT continually using first and second round draft picks to fill the holes created by allowing young vets to leave. That's what the Bills did with depressing regularity between 2000 and 2017, and all they did was spin their wheels. The Bills drafted a DB in the first round in 2001, in the first round in 2006, in the first round in 2008, in the second round in 2009, in the second round in 2011, in the first round in 2012, in the second round in 2015, and in the first round in 2017. That's 8 DBs. taken in the first two rounds out of 15 drafts. They also drafted a RB in the 2nd round in 2002, in the first round in 2003, in the first round in 2007, and in the first round in 2010, which is 4 RBs taken in the first two rounds of 9 drafts. The 2003 and 2007 RBs were Willis McGahey and Marshawn Lynch, both of whom had long, successful careers, with Lynch likely to be a HOF candidate at some point. In contrast, the Bills drafted only 5 OLers in the first or second round between 2001 and 2017, and only 1 of those -- Eric Wood -- was a first rounder.

What is this love for failed first round QBs that some fans have??? Sorry, if the guy can t cut it as a starter --- and Mariota has always looked like an improved, more mobile and somewhat less risk adverse version of Trent Edwards IMO -- why does anybody think he'll make a good backup QB? First rounders get every opportunity to prove themselves, and if they fail, it generally means it's because they are lacking in key intangibles like decision making, reading defenses, ability to process what they see quickly enough, etc. They still need those things as a backup. AFAIK, no failed first round QB has ever been a successful backup QB except, like David Carr with the Giants, he never gets on the field except in garbage time. Either get a JAG veteran like Barkley or Taylor who has a good grasp of the game to augment what talent he has or gamble on a lower round/UDFA young QB like Gardner Minshew, Kyle Allen or Mason Rudolph. You never know -- maybe one of those youngsters is the next Kurt Warner, Tom Brady or Tony Romo.

I didn't say that they absolutely had to re-sign White, just that they have to make a serious effort to do so which I don't believe that they did with Gilmore -- or with Woods or Goodwin, either -- in 2017. IIRC, it was a foregone conclusion by observers that Gilmore wouldn't be re-signed even before the 2016 season ended. If a player's unhappy and wants a trade, that's entirely different situation than the team continually refusing to pay the going rate for young talent they developed -- and then turning around and using the draft to fill that hole.

I don't think the decision to let Gilmore walk can be put on Whaley or on McDermott. It literally came from "higher up the corporate food chain", ie, Russ Brandon and his bean-counters in respect to Gilmore, but the Bills developing top DBs and then letting them walk in FA predates Brandon's regime. In 1999, the Bills drafted Antoine Winfield in the first round, developed him into a Pro Bowler, and allowed him walk in FA. In 2001, the Bills drafted Nate Clements in the first round, developed him into a Pro Bowler, and allowed him walk in FA. In 2004, the Bills signed an UDFA DB Jabari Greer, developed him into a top DB, and let him walk in FA (he won a SB ring with New Orleans). In 2006, the Bills drafted Donte Whitner in the first round, developed him into an excellent strong safety, and let him walk in FA. (Bills fans hated Whitner because he was drafted so high, which wasn't his fault.) In 2008, the Bills drafted Leodis McKelvin in the first round, who developed into a JAG DB, and spent almost all of his career with the Bills. Allowing Gilmore to walk and using a first round pick to replace him was simply a long standing Bills policy that occurred under John Butler, Tom Donahoe, Russ Brandon/Dick Jauron, Russ Brandon/Doug Whaley, and Russ Brandon/Sean McDermott. The Bills have also done similar things with RBs and the few good WRs they developed since 2000. It's part of the reason why they didn't make the playoffs for 17 years -- they could never truly improve the team because they were continually using the draft to fill holes created by their failure to keep the homegrown talent they developed. Whether the Bills have truly changed their ways will probably become clearer when Tre White comes up for a new contract, and whether the Bills let him walk away without a fight or if they re-sign/seriously try to re-sign him.

There actually isn't a "lack of QB talent" in more recent years. The OP makes it seem the talent is much less than it is because he's dismissed players like Luck and Newton because of how much they suffered injuries, and he didn't even consider the good/great younger QBs who have come from outside the first round. The only 2 truly great QB drafts since the merger (1970) were 1983 and 2004. 1983 produced 3 HOFers plus Ken O'Brien who was a decent starter for several years. 2004 produced three potential HOFers plus the decent starter Matt Schaub. Most drafts since the merger in 1970 have produced only 1 or none successful NFL QBs. Since the 2004 draft class, 2005 produced Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers; 2006 produced Jay Cutler; 2008 produced Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco; 2009 produced Matthew Stafford; 2011 produced Cam Newton; and 2012 produced Andrew Luck. Moreover, recent drafts have produced successful -- even great -- QBs outside of the first round: Dalton in 2011; Wilson, Foles, and Cousins in 2012; Carr in 2014; and Brissett and Prescott in 2016. There seems to have been a talent dip among QBs between 2013-2015, but 2016 and 2017 promise a talent resurgence.

I think what your post shows is that real "franchise QBs" are few and far between, and that's even more strongly demonstrated if you include of 10 full years of QBs with 3 full seasons of NFL experience. In the four classes between 2006 and 2009, of the 10 QBs drafted in the first round, only Matthew Stafford (#1 2009), Matt Ryan (#3 2008), Joe Flacco (#18 2008), and Jay Cutler (#11 2006) have had any kind of success. Moreover, many of the QBs who are now considered busts, were considered somewhat successful early in their careers. Mark Sanchez (#5 in 2009) and Christian Ponder both led their teams to playoff success in their first and/or second seasons. Bortles looked like he'd finally figured things out in 2017 when he led the Jags to the AFC Championship game. FTR, some of the most successful proven QBs since 2010 have come from outside the first round: 2011: Andy Dalton, 2nd round 2012: Russell Wilson and Nick Foles, both third rounders, and Kirk Cousins, fourth rounder 2014: Derek Carr, 2nd round 2016: Jacoby Brissett, 3rd round, and Dak Prescott, fourth rounder The trend toward teams finding success with lower round QBs seems to be a recent one. The impressive performances from some really young backup QBs like Gardener Minchew, Kyle Allen, and Mason Rudolph suggest that the trend is going to continue.

Another day, another excuse making thread by an apologist for the Bills' poor personnel decisions between 2001 and 2017. The Bills screwed the pooch by passing on not 1 but 2 great QB prospects for a DB prospect because they needed another top DB after allowing a future All Pro DB to walk away in free agency. The DB they took is excellent but great DBs are literally a dime a dozen compared to great QBs. That's the crux of it. That the two QBs the Bills passed on have lit up the league while the QB the Bills drafted looks decent but has a ways to go to become even a consistently competent NFL QB only makes the original decision even more embarrassing. That's the reality. Deal with it, dude. Why not? Does he prefer ketchup on his wings? Because he has a funky hair style?

This is my worry, too. It appears to me, like releasing McCoy, that this is just another short-sighted move on the offensive side of the ball simply to save a relatively few dollars. In the case of Jones, it's more like a case of saving pennies in terms of NFL salaries (Zay made about $ 1 million, Johnson makes about half of that). I have never been a fan of Zay Jones but the Bills aren't that loaded with WR talent that Jones couldn't have a place on the depth chart. Except from Beasley and Brown, the Bills WR corps is now made up of players who are suspect NFL talent. Robert Foster is an UDFA in his 2nd season. Isaiah McKenzie is an UDFA in his 3rd season. Duke Williams is a refugee from the CFL via the PS in his first NFL season . Andre Roberts is in his 10th NFL season but he's primarily a kick returner. The Bills WR corps is simply not good enough for today's NFL, even if they had Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson under center. IMO, Beane and McDermott treat the offense like the proverbial "red headed step child". They don't cut/trade defensive starters just to save some $$$ but seem to hoard talent. They got a first class QB prospect, but surrounded him with mediocre/poor talent, and then expect him to carry the team. On defense, coaching and scheme can hide a lot of deficiencies, but lack of speed, size, vision, elusiveness, and/or pass catching ability by WRs and RBs can't be coached or schemed around so easily. For Beane and McDermott, it's a win-win situation. If Allen turns out to be a super talent, then the Bills make the playoffs and have some success and Beane and McDermott are hailed as "geniuses". If Allen doesn't develop into a super talent immediately and the Bills don't even make the playoffs, Allen gets most of the blame, and Beane and McDermott are off the hook until Allen is labeled a "bust", which could take several more years (see Bortles, Winston, and Mariota). If you think I'm just being "negative" in this view, consider that the Bills didn't even bother to hire a real QB coach for Allen last season. David Culley, the Bills QB coach in 2018, hadn't actually coached QBs since the 1980s when he coached QBs for a year at the collegiate level. If the Bills don't make the playoffs this season, Josh Allen might be part of the problem, but McDermott and Beane will bear far more responsibiliy for it. What would be even worse is if Jones becomes a productive WR for the Raiders when he's not expected to be a #1 or #2. I'm not expecting much from Jones, but Jerry Hughes was considered a bust on his original team.

If I read the OP correctly, it's a 2021 pick, which I think is considered equivalent to a round lower in the next dra, so a fifth in 2021 would be considered equivalent to a sixth rounder in 2020, so not so "wow!" especially since the Bills spent a 2nd and a 3rd on him in 2017.

I would rather see the Bills look to improve the bottom end of their roster than bring in a big name or two for the short term. They should look at practice squads for youngsters who are better than the lower end guys they have now, especially on the lines. They should consider adding a middling talent guy or two if they can get younger guys for a modest outlay such as a mid or low round pick.

Thank you for an excellent post. My main hope for Allen at this point is that his terrible play against the Pats -- and all the criticism he's had to have heard/read about his play and prospects -- finally convinces him that the coaches actually do know better than he does about what he can and cannot do in the NFL. If he doesn't learn more from his failures than he has so far from his close calls, he's not long for the NFL as a starting QB. This is simply untrue. - Roethlisberger took over for injured Tommy Maddox in the first game of his rookie season, and led the Steelers to a 15-1 record. The next year he led them to a Super Bowl win. - Favre played in a totally different environment than today -- and his poor play got him traded away to the Packers. - Drew Brees played decently as a sophomore but struggled in his third year on a very poor Chargers team. Brees came out in his fourth season, 2004, with his act all together. He was named a Pro Bowler that season. More recently -- and more pertinent -- to Allen's situation is the reality that ... - Goff (#1 in 2016) blossomed as a sophomore and led the Rams to the playoffs. Last season, he took them to the Super Bowl; - Wentz (#2 in 2016) was decent as a rookie and was a leading MVP candidate until he was injured as a sophomore; - Mahomes (#10 in 2017), who played only 1 game as rookie, threw for 50 TDs and was the NFL MVP as a sophomore; - DeShaun Watson (#12 in 2017) was outstanding in his 7 starts as a rookie before he was injured. As a sophomore, he led his team to 11-5, made the Pro Bowl, and threw 26 TDs to 9 INTs; - Baker Mayfield (#1 in 2018) set the rookie TD record at 27; - Lamar Jackson (#32 in 2018) sparked the Ravens' offense as a rookie and led them to the playoffs. This season he's thrown 10 TDs and only 2 INTs. That's 6 QBs from the last three drafts that have already made their marks in the NFL.

It's EXACTLY that habit he keeps repeating! Then after he gets stung a couple of times, he starts running recklessly --hero ball. He only played hero ball a few times in the first three games -- and the Bills were able to overcome them. In the first game, I think an INT on a downfield throw he never should have made was negated by a penalty. The INT in the Giants game was another bad mistake. I think he had a near INT against Cinci that might have been dropped or negated by a penalty.

The "only 15 games as a starter" line is getting old in regard to Allen. He's NOT making new mistakes that could be attributed to lack of experience. He's repeating the same stupid mistakes over and over rather than learning from them, and that's unacceptable. That was the source of Daboll's sideline frustration -- and many fans' as well.

Well, Allen hasn't thought well in games this season. He has had 6 INTs in 4 games, at least 3 of them blatantly stupid throws that even a raw rookie shouldn't throw more than once. I was glad that Daboll got on Allen on national TV ... and I hope he got roasted properly again when going over the film. If Allen can't make good decisions, then he'll never even be a competent NFL QB much less a franchise one.

Not much. Maybe a 6th or 7th pick.

I think this is the problem with Dawkins -- and maybe Ford as well. They would make much better NFL guards than tackles but the Bills keep at them at tackle because they don't have anybody better.