SoTier

I was really po'd that the Bills didn't take Wilson. He was clearly a first round talent -- probably a top 5 pick -- if there hadn't been so much prejudice against short QBs at the time. Wilson was the reason that Mayfield was taken #1 rather than on Day 2. I don't think that Jones will ever be a top NFL WR although he could develop into a solid one. A lot of the Bills "misses" have been of that kind -- spending more to get a solid player rather than taking an excellent player.

You missed the gem of taking Aaron Maybin instead of Brian Orakpo at #9 in 2009, probably the perfect example of why a team shouldn't draft for need and also why a HC shouldn't be given control of personnel unless his name is Belichick.

I would guess that your definition of "good players" = "guys I like who play for the Bills" as opposed to "good players" = "starters on most NFL teams". I think that Brandon/Beane/McDermott have actually thrown away spectacular in pursuit of less than solid in several instances. I see a roster with too many bottom end players who would not be good enough to make most teams in the NFL. If the Bills are serious about building a real playoff team, the 2019 draft would be a good time to start. Even if Allen develops into a true franchise QB, he can't do everything himself.

That's as bad as the Bills having three or four Williams a few years ago.

Excellent post. IIRC Knox quit the Bills after the 1981 season because he wanted to acquire some better players but Wilson nixed that. Like Lou Saban in the 1960s and then the early 1970s, Knox had control of personnel but he was still subject to interference from Wilson and Wilson's advisors, several of whom were hired only because they were Wilson's pals. An interesting book on the 1980 Bills-- the team that ended zero-for-the-seventies against Miami -- is "Talking Proud - Rediscovering the Magical Season of the 1980 Buffalo Bills" by Rich Blake.

Where did I say that the Bills are doomed? I didn't. I said it's way too soon to figure out if the Beane regime is better, the same or worse than its predecessors. At this time into most of the previous regimes since 2000 (< 2 years) most fans thought those regimes were better than their predecessors, too. What do you know about Josh Rosen except having watched him a few times play on the train wreck that was the 2018 Cards and read articles/tweets/posts by authors who may very well have their own agendas, including stirring controversy to boost their readership. following or clicks? Have you met him? Have you played with him? Have you coached him? My guess is your answer to all of these questions would be "no". Furthermore, you can believe whatever you want but that doesn't make it true. Nobody knows if any of the 2018 QBs will actually become franchise QBs. Certainly Mayfield's rookie performance makes him the most promising of the lot but it's no guarantee that he doesn't crash and burn this season or next. The poster to whom I responded assumes that when Brady retires, the Patriots are going to instantly and permanently become cellar dwellers and that the Bills will then take their place as the dominant team in the AFCE. Aside from nobody knowing the future, the Bills being a good or bad team is entirely independent of whether NE is a good or bad team. For a lot of years in the last 20 years, Pittsburgh and Baltimore have frequently been among the class of the AFC during the same seasons. No, it's a function of the quality of the teams and coaches their organizations have put around them and any untimely injuries they've suffered. The same with Peyton Manning and Drew Brees -- and especially Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford, and probably Matt Ryan too. It has nothing to do with whether or not a QB expresses opinions or not.

You are very right. Until very recently, society considered child abuse as "strict discipline" and spousal abuse as "a man's right" (no man would have admitted to being abused by his wife). Society has changed -- for the better. What hasn't is the attitudes/actions of people who abuse children, spouses, and/or the elderly. Long before drugs that people ingested as pills, smoked or injected became prevalent in society, there was alcohol. The temperance movement began in the 1830s in the US not because reformers were opposed to people having wine with dinner or imbibing at a party but because so many people -- especially women and children in a male dominated society -- suffered because of the violence and poverty that resulted from excessive alcohol use.

Actually, all of the 2018 first round QBs could still succeed or fail -- and it's likely that at least 3 or 4 probably will fail by the time they play out their rookie contracts. In 2011, four QBs were taken in the first 12 picks but only one who had long term success was Cam Newton. The other decent QBs in that draft were 2nd rounder Andy Dalton and 6th rounder Tyrod Taylor. The 2012 draft also featured 4 QBs taken in the first round (3 in the first 8 picks) but only Andrew Luck was a keeper while the most successful QB from that draft is Russell Wilson and 2nd rounder Nick Foles and 4th round Kirk Cousins have done well. Drafts rarely produce more than 1 true franchise QBs (see 1983 and 2004) while a "good draft" will produce 1 franchise guy and 1 or 2 QBs who are "decent". What makes you think that Belichick wouldn't mold Rosen into another Brady? Belichick made Bernie Kosar into a very good QB back in his days in Cleveland. He made Matt Cassel look like a good NFL QB for one season in 2008. SF gave up a 2nd rounder for backup QB Jimmy Garoppollo because of how good he looked in his limited stints as a starter under Belichick. Moreover, Belichick and Brady have NOT been the reason that the Bills have stunk it up since 2000. The Bills organization has been incompetent during most, if not all, of that time, and it's way to early to decide if the current regime is truly any better than all the others. I think you would be wrong. If the Bills had taken Rosen instead of Allen, you and numerous others on TSW would be finding positives in Rosen and dissing Allen. Look at all the Bills fans who repeatedly claim that they'd rather have Allen than Mahomes when they could have had a QB with just as much leadership and "it" factor as Allen with better passing ability as well as all the additional talent they either gave up or passed on in order to get Allen. Look at all the Bills fans who keep pretending that the Bills didn't screw the pooch by drafting Zay Jones rather than Juju Smith-Schuster. Oh, yeah, and how about all the Bills fans who insist that Tre White is as good a CB as Stephon Gilmore? Most Bills fans are always "all in" on whatever regime the owners install -- and the players they select -- until that regime gets the axe and/or the players go elsewhere. Then they're all trash in the eyes of the Bills true believers.

The Bills have demonstrated an almost magical ability to trade up to take the wrong player, which is an indictment of how bad their scouting and personnel decision making have been over the decades -- and that seems to regardless of the regime. Their more recent trade up faux pas include trading back into the 1st in 2004 to draft JP Losman when they could have taken Matt Schaub in the 2nd or even maybe the third and gotten a significantly better QB -- or they could have simply waited until 2005 to take Aaron Rodgers with their #18 pick. Russ Brandon and Dick Jauron traded back into the first round in 2006 to take John McCargo who barely played because of injury issues so just about anybody else would have been a better pick. In 2012 Buddy Nix traded up in the third round to take forgettable WR TJ Graham instead of taking QB Russell Wilson. In 2014, the Bills traded their 2014 and 2015 first round picks to draft WR Sammy Watkins rather than Odell Beckham Jr or Mike Evans. Finally, Brandon and McDermott traded up in the 2nd round in 2017 to take Zay Jones rather than JuJu Smith-Schuster. Hopefully, Beane breaks the pattern because he traded up twice in the first round of the 2018 draft to take Josh Allen and/or Tremaine Edmunds.

I agree that a better OL should help Allen, and hopefully, the Bills put enough good pieces around him so that he doesn't have to realize he doesn't have to do it all himself. That may be a challenge for Allen, as it seems to be for Newton, because it doesn't seem to fit their temperaments. My main point in that post though was aimed at the posters complaining about the refs not protecting some QBs while protecting others. I think it's pretty obvious that nobody is too worried about either Tom Brady's or Eli Manning's running ability, so if they get hit, it's almost always going to be in/near the pocket. QBs like Newton, Allen, Wilson, and Rodgers are definitely capable of using their mobility to make plays, either by running or by extending plays by running outside the pocket, so they're much more likely to be outside the pocket -- and therefore subject to hard hits -- than other QBs.

When QBs run the ball, especially on designed QB runs, they're no longer protected by the rules that protect QBs that stay in the pocket like Brady or the Mannings. If Allen wants to have a long NFL career, he's going to have to learn to get some yards and then run out of bounds ala Russell Wilson not challenge defenders to get a few extra yards like Cam Newton.

I totally agree, and I imagine that many if not most of the NFL personnel guys figure exactly the same. Giving up on any first round pick (barring catastrophic injury) after a single rookie labels him an epic "bust", and that probably goes double for QBs. In the last dozen years, I can think of only 3 first round QBs who weren't given at least 3 years to prove themselves with their original teams: Ja'Marcus Russell, Johnny Manziel, and Paxton Lynch -- and all of them got at least a second year with their original team. Nobody is giving up a day one or day two pick for Rosen at this point even if they think that the Cards organization is totally incompetent and that Rosen might have chance to become a decent QB. They'll low ball the Cards by offering a 5th or 6th rounder.

I second that. I would not be surprised at all to see Murray last until the second half of the first round, and only mildly surprised if he wasn't taken in the first round at all.

I got pretty sick of watching Beast Mode tear up the NFL when he was with the Seahawks ... and he never got in any trouble there, either, despite all the Bills fans' predictions to the contrary. In his 5 full seasons in Seattle, he played in 70 games, started 66 and ran for 5774 yards and 51 rushing TDs as well as adding 8 more receiving TDs. In his part season with the Hawks, he started 11 games and ran for 573 yards and 6 TDs in 12 games. He was a Pro Bowler 4 times and once All Pro with Seattle. Boy, were the Bills geniuses to con the Hawks into giving up a fourth round pick for him!

He wouldn't be my HC. Any GM with the power to hire/fire HCs who hired a newbie HC who couldn't work with the former first round pick taken just the year before deserves to be fired himself ... and if the HC had lied in his interviews and now changed his tune after he got the job, then he deserves to have his ass fired ASAP. Kingsbury isn't Bill Belichick or Andy Reid or Pete Carroll with a proven track record in the NFL; he's a college coach who's more likely to crash and burn in the NFL than a first round QB (who crash and burn about half the time).

I watched quite a bit of Mayfield last season, and he was infinitely better than either Griffin or Prescott. Mayfield sparked that Cleveland team much like Allen sparked the Bills -- and he's way ahead of Allen as an NFL passer. They also don't have Ozzie Newsome as their GM any more (he retired). That may be their biggest loss. And Bills fans who think the Bills are likely to make the playoffs are any different? Cleveland was a better team last season even with all the turmoil on the coaching staff. With better coaching early on, they probably would have won 9 games. As it was they finished 7-8-1 with 2 or 3 heart breaking losses IIRC. How many times have we heard this line since 2000? It only happened twice -- in 2002 and in 2008. Along with the annual predictions that "this will be the year Brady crashes and burns", I'll believe it when it actually happens.

If they missed on Rosen, what makes you think that they're likely to hit on Murray? Murray doesn't seem to be nearly as a good a prospect as Mayfield or Goff or Winston, the last three QBs to go #1 overall. Moreover, lots of recent drafts have produced less than outstanding QBs from the top ten ... including several back to back drafts. 2015 ... #1 Jameis Winston 2015 ... #2 Marcus Mariota 2014 ... #3 Blake Bortles 2012 ... #2 Robert Griffin III 2012 ... #8 Ryan Tannehill 2011 ... #8 Jake Locker 2011 ...#10 Blaine Gabbert 2010 ... #1 Sam Bradford 2009 ... #5 Mark Sanchez 2007 ... #1 Ja'Marcus Russell 2006 ... #3 Vince Young 2006 ... #10 Matt Leinert 2003 ... #7 Byron Leftwich 2002 ... #1 David Carr 2002 ... #3 Joey Harrington They don't know if Rosen will be good, mediocre or awful, and that's partly because he was a rookie, partly because the rest of the Cards team is so poor, and partly because of ineffective coaching. If they draft Murray, he will suffer the same lack of talent around him as Rosen. The Cards new HC may not be any better than their last HC as both were rookie coaches IIRC. The sensible thing to do is to stick with Rosen, use the #1 pick on a stud player or, the best option if they can get a good deal, trade back a bit to get more picks. If the Cards don't significantly improve the team around their QB that QB, whoever it is, isn't going to find much success. Furthermore, trading Rosen before the draft isn't really a feasible option because by wanting to get rid of him so soon essentially declares him a bust. Teams aren't going to spend a 2nd or 3rd draft pick on an expensive but inexperienced backup QB.

As I've said before: Phillip Rivers and Matthew Stafford prove that a team needs more than a franchise QB to win 10-12 games a season.

I don't agree with your last paragraph because I don't think McDermott picked Beane, but the first part of your post about Wilson and Brandon's involvement in the team is pretty much common knowledge. Whaley was essentially a talent scout. He and Brandon were college pals, and Brandon hired him to evaluate college and pro players but not to actually be the guy to make the final decisions. Brandon's top consideration in dealing with players was always the financial bottom line. I think that McDermott had considerable influence on Beane being selected because I think that Pegula wanted a HC/GM that could work together well but I don't think he made the decision. I'm not in favor of HCs being "in charge" of scouting talent or in being independent from the GM. I think that the most effective organizational model has a GM at the top who reports to the owner, and everybody else eventually reports up to him. The GM picks the assistant GMs and the HC. Everybody works together because the "chain of command" is clear and consistent. The Bills organizational model under both Wilson and Pegula is flawed because it allows for separate chains of command that too frequently compete and conflict with one another. The flip flopping of defensive systems with every new coach -- and consequently retooling the defense almost biennially -- is a manifestation of this poor organization. Nobody making the decision on Bills HCs knows/cares enough about football to take that into consideration and hire a HC who will pick a DC who runs the system that fits the players already on the team when that defense is already a good one (as Schwartz's D was in 2014).

Exactly right. Beane hasn't even been with the Bills for 2 entire years, so he really can't be judged good or bad. The 2017 FA period and draft weren't his. The 2018 FA was his and it was uninspiring. The 2018 draft is still a question mark because nobody knows how rookies are going to develop, no matter how they played as rookies. The Bills have been active in FA in 2019 and have upgraded the talent on the offense, which doesn't say much because the offensive talent was so lacking last season. Beane has shown that he's good at tearing a team down but he hasn't proven that he can build one back up yet, and that starts with Allen. If Allen doesn't light it up, Beane will be toast ... but that's going to take a couple more years to shake out. As for Wilson, I totally agree, and his worse decision was bringing in Brandon -- at least from the POV of any Bills fan who wants to see a return to winning football. Before he came to Buffalo, Brandon's claim to fame was the dismantling of the world champion Florida Marlins the year after they won the World Series. Brandon literally held a fire sale of all of the talented ball players on the team, with the payroll falling from one of the highest to the league to the lowest ... and the Marlins went from top to bottom in 1 season. IIRC, they had the worse record of any WS winner in the season after their Series win in MLB history. I was a big supporter of Pegula as owner until he decided to keep and then promote Brandon. I think that the only remaining exec from Wilson's ownership is Overdorf, the supposed "cap genius" who was responsible for contracts. If Beane is truly in charge and truly interested in winning games, I think he'd do well to get rid of Overdorf and bring somebody who actually IS a "cap genius". All the teams have the same amount of money to spend on players but somehow the Bills can never "afford" to keep their home-grown talent despite not paying a premium QB salary while other teams can afford franchise QBs, outstanding pass rushers, star receivers, etc. That so many players the Bills "couldn't afford" or "weren't worth the money" have been major contributors to so many playoff and Super Bowl teams over the last decade is a major indictment of Brandon and Overdorf.

Whaley didn't run the 2017 draft. Brandon, likely with help from McDermott or just McDermott ran it since Whaley was already shut out of the decision making. He was fired the day after the draft, probably on orders from Pegula. Ralph Wilson was attributed to have said something like Brandon was "like his son". From 2006, he pretty much had free rein in running the team, and as Wilson's health deteriorated after 2010, Brandon operated as defacto owner until Pegula purchased the team in October 2013. How, in the light of Wilson's support and Brandon's power within the organization, was Whaley supposed to tell Brandon to "stay out of the football side of the house"? How long do you think you'd last in your job if you trotted up to the CEO of your employer and told him to keep his nose out of running the business?

Did you forget to shower?

Actually, Dareus was pretty good early on. He was a Pro Bowler in 2014 and an All Pro in 2015, so he was as good as advertised. Then something went wrong. Maybe it was his big contract but my guess is that it probably was something in his personal life. In the end, pro football players are people, and just like accountants and truck drivers and school teachers, the stuff that goes on in their families or in their heads can easily derail their careers.

I agree that neither Barkley nor Anderson are tradable, before or during the season, especially since Barkley was still a FA in October when the Bills signed him after Anderson went down. Anderson was retired and hadn't played a regular season down in 2 or 3 years when the Bills signed him. IMO, Anderson shouldn't be on the roster as a player when the season starts. The Bills have better uses for his roster spot and his cap space than on an old QB. If he stays as an assistant coach, that's fine, but get a practice squad eligible youngster as the third QB (as long as it's NOT Peterman!.

OUCH!!! Shades of Tom Donahoe trading the Bills' 2005 first (which turned out to be #18 and could have netted them Aaron Rodgers), 2004 2nd and 2004 5th to take JP Losman ... and then trying to trade him after his miserable 2005 season.