SoTier

I lived in Nebraska for two years in the 1970s. I was never actually was in a tornado, but they occurred in rural areas around Lincoln. A big one hit suburban Omaha the last year I lived there, killing three people. Some precautions: #1 - Get a house with a basement and outfit a corner (preferably in SW corner) as a "safe room/area" -- no windows/no wall shelving/seating/possibly a strong wall separating it from the rest of the basement. #2 - Build/install an in-ground storm shelter for a home without a basement. They are now available as prefab units. #3 - Invest in a NOAA emergency weather alert radio that can be programmed for your area. #4 - Take every tornado warning seriously, and get your family, your pets, and yourself to your shelter ASAP.

I second this. They are in desperate need of playmakers at WR, RB, and TE plus they could use upgrades along the OL. They simply don't have the offensive support for Allen to enable him to become a proficient NFL QB, and without improving their offense significantly, they really can't be competitive in the playoffs.

Are you talking any position or specifically WRs? Some positions are not considered valuable enough to warrant spending a top five or top ten pick on. Teams frequently don't start using their first round picks on interior OL positions until later, so the bottom half or third of the first round frequently produces Pro Bowl guards and centers. OTOH, it's pretty clear that QBs taken in the bottom half of the first round aren't likely to find much success. Right off, I can think of only 4 QBs taken at #16 or lower since 2000 who have had real success in the NFL: 2000 - Chad Pennington; 2005 - Aaron Rodgers; 2008 - Joe Flacco; 2018 - Lamar Jackson. I think if you look at success and draft position without regard to position, you are probably right that there's not a big difference in the number of busts from positions 1-10 and positions 22-32. However, that's a very simplistic and unrealistic view because some positions are considered more valuable, and the best prospects at that position get snapped up early even if they aren't as good prospects as other players at positions that aren't valued as much and are, therefore, much more likely to bust.

I think that's a false perception that results from the fact that we often focus on the first round guys who bust but ignore the second rounders who do the same. The further back in the draft a player is taken, the more likely he is to fail to become even a solid NFL player much less a star playmaker. A lot of it is perception, too. People remember the highly touted first rounders who crash and burn and the handful of Day 2 or Day 3 guys who become Pro Bowlers but the players outside the first round who don't pan out don't even make a blip on people's radar except for maybe personal reasons. Case in point is Zay Jones; the only reason we even recognize his name is because he was a 2nd round pick for the Bills who busted. On the matter of trading up in the draft, IMO, I'm okay with trading up to get into the top third/top half of the first round but I think trading up in later rounds is a waste of resources because of the increased chances of faiure.

Really? What evidence? Post a link or it's simply your opinion.

Exactly. This "banning single use plastic bags is worse for the environment" claim is bull manure. It's simply an excuse for people to continuing the same lazy, selfish, short-sighted behavior that they've indulged in since single use plastic bags became a retail staple in the 1980s. Environmental groups have tried for at least two decades to reduce the impact of single use plastic bags on the environment for two decades. The major supermarket chains like Wegmans and Tops in Upstate NY have been selling reusable shopping bags all that time while smaller shopping chains like Aldis have always had "bring your own bags or pay for our bags" policies. Unfortunately, the vast majority of single use plastic merchandise bags are NOT recycled or used for another purpose once they leave the stores but end up in landfills or littering the landscape, which is exactly why the ban was necessary. It's time for individuals to take some personal responsibility for their environmental impact. This is not an onerous burden. Remembering to bring in your reusable shopping bags when you go shopping is simply a habit like remembering to carry your drivers license with you when you drive your car. PS - Smaller, thinner plastic bags specifically designed for picking up dog poop have been available for years now.

If the Bills are going to trade up, then I'd prefer they'd do it for one of the top three, and if they don't acquire at least a solid veteran WR in FA, then getting one of the three pro ready kids is even more important. If they don't get better receivers for Allen for the coming season, when exactly are they going to do so???

As a group, Foster, McKenzie and Williams simply aren't good enough to make up 3/5 of the WR corps of a team that's serious about winning playoff games. Foster and Williams were UDFAs while McKenzie was a fifth round pick in 2017. In general, where a player is drafted -- or not drafted -- indicates what pro talent evaluators think of his talent, which is his potential to be successful in the NFL. The UDFAs or 6th or 7th rounders who become stars are the exceptions rather than the rule. The Bills need a bonafide WR1 and another WR that would compete with Beasley and Brown, not more WRs to compete with fringe players like Foster/McKenzie/Williams who ought to be competing against each other to determine which one makes the team. Competition isn't going to make a player better unless he has talent that he hasn't maximized, which is probably unlikely for most young NFL players, especially players who have actually made an NFL team despite significant odds against their success. Competition is not going to make a WR bigger or faster since those physical traits can't be changed. Competition isn't going to make a WR a better route runner or have better footwork on the sidelines or improve his pass catching ability; good coaching and/or experience can improve those to varying degrees. What's foolish is thinking that a team can win playoff games with regularity with a roster containing a couple of stars, some decent pros, and mostly guys who weren't likely to make most other playoff teams. The Bills need to upgrade the bottom of their roster, especially on offense, and they should start with the WRs and RBs.

This is what all the teams that are consistent playoff and Super Bowl contenders do with regularity. Think New England, Pittsburgh, KC, Baltimore, Minnesota (a team that's repeatedly made the playoffs without having a top QB), New Orleans, Green Bay, Seattle. They don't all do it the same way, but their FOs are significantly better at acquiring the right talent at the positions needed to win football games, including on the coaching and scouting/player evaluation staffs. I don't care if the FAs or draft picks are "big names" but I expect them to be at least the same or better than the players they replace. This is especially true on the offense where the Bills are lacking NFL quality starters at a couple of skill positions and severely lacking in NFL caliber depth. Competition for starting RB would be a positive but there shouldn't be any competition with the current incumbents for backup RB. Gore and Yeldin are simply not good enough RBs for a team that's aiming to win playoff games. With the WRs, outside of Beasley and Brown, the same is true. Competition isn't going to make the rest of the Bills WR corps more talented.

My fear is that this may very well be considered "good enough" not only by many fans but by the Pegulas as well. Certainly if the FO fails to upgrade key offensive positions, it will be a strong signal that that's their mindset. A team can be beset by injuries (see Pittsburgh and Philly) or a team's QB may not be the guy they hoped he would be (see Trubisky and Mariota) but if the FO isn't committed to putting a serious Super Bowl contender out on the field every year by developing/acquiring playmakers, the chances of that team ever winning the Lombardi become slim or none (see Cincinatti). IMO winning the division because the rest of the division are bottom feeders means nothing. Winning in the playoffs is what counts, and unless the Bills improve significantly on offense, they're unlikely to do much of that. So, for me, minimum success in 2020, barring some problem outside the team's control, winning at least one playoff game and having a real chance to win the next one in the fourth quarter. I don't think that SF is that much of an outlier in the current NFL, which is what Happy Gillmore was referencing. San Francisco lost in the NFCCCG in Jim Harbaugh's first season (2011) and lost the Super Bowl the next year (2012). Seattle lost in the divisional round in Pete Carroll's third season (2012) and won the Super Bowl the next year (2013). Philadelphia won the SB in Doug Pederson's 2nd season (2017). Los Angeles Rams lost in the WC round in Sean McVay's first season (2017) and made the Super Bowl in his second (2019). Chicago won 12 games and lost in the WC round in Matt Nagy's first season (2018) but backslid in 2019 at least partly (and possibly primarily) because Trubisky hasn't developed as expected. Green Bay won 13 games and lost in the NFCCCG in Matt LaFleur's first season (2019). San Francisco lost in the SB in Kyle Shanahan's third season (2019). In the fourth season of a rebuild, barring key injuries, if the Bills do not do better than one and done in the playoffs, then it raises serious questions about Beane/McDermott's ability to produce a serious Super Bowl contender. If Beane doesn't upgrade the offensive talent then I'm not willing to blame Daboll for the Bills offensive failures. OCs and position coaches can't turn JAGs and non-NFL caliber players into playmakers, and that's what the Bills have had way too many of on offense in the McDermott/Beane regime.

As a retired computer programmer, I found the book the movie Hidden Figures was based on even better because it gives you more insight to the monumentality of Johnson and her cohorts' achievements. These ladies were literally human "computers" armed only with pencils, paper/chalkboards, and pretty primitive calculating aids like adding machines and slide rules. The computer (it was one room-sized physical behemoth called a "mainframe" computer) that guided and powered the Apollo missions to the moon wasn't even as powerful -- and certainly not as reliable -- as desktop computers from 20 or 25 years ago. The ladies in the NASA computing units literally had to manually do the same calculations as the computer to make sure that the machine got it right.

What examples of "great player evaluation" from Beane and his scouts are you talking about? Tre White, Dion Dawkins, and Matt Milano were all selections from Whaley/McDermott and the previous Bills scouting department. The jury is still out on the two draft classes that Beane actually had a hand in. Allen and Edmunds have been promising, both have been impressive at times, and Edmunds started playing significantly better in the second half of last season, but neither has yet earned a reputation as a top NFL player at his position. In the 2019 class, Ed Oliver and Devin Singletary seem like keepers but Cody Ford is very questionable. Dawson Knox has made some good plays but much too infrequently. Beane's "great player evaluation" of veterans has been singularly unimpressive, especially in 2017 and 2018. The list of Beane's mediocrity and outright failures in acquiring veterans include Jordan Matthews, Kelvin Benjamin, Corey Coleman, AJ McCarron, Derek Anderson, Star Loutelelei, Trent Williams, and Frank Gore. Only in 2019 did Beane and his scouts actually find some solid veteran players who contributed significantly to the team. Just how good or bad Beane is as a talent evaluator still remains to be seen. This statement is based on myth not fact. There have only been 2 times during Brady's tenure when the Pats have had to call on their backup QBs to play because their starter couldn't. That's not "wisdom" but rather luck. The first was in 2008 when Brady was injured in the first game and missed the rest of the season. Matt Cassel led the team to an 11-5 season but the Pats still missed the playoffs. In 2016, Brady missed the first four games of the season because of suspension, and Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brisett combined for a 3-1 record. Cassel was a fifth or sixth rounder, Brissett a third rounder, and Garoppolo was taken in the second round Belichick's "wisdom" came from off-loading these three QBs to other teams for picks while their values were the highest. Cassel was traded to KC in 2009, Brissett was traded to Indy early in 2017, and Garoppolo was traded to the Niners later in 2017. The QB who lasted the longest as a Brady backup was UDFA Brian Hoyer who spent 4 full seasons and part of another with the Patriots, never starting a game.

Dawkins isn't the best LT in the NFL but he's better than a lot of them, and a team needs at least adequate play at OT. The market rate is what it is, and the Bills don't have anybody else as good as he is, so pay him. You can't build a real Super Bowl contender with a roster featuring a handful of top players backed up by never-weres and never-will-bes.

My view of the Brandon era (2006-2018) is somewhat different. Wilson essentially turned over control to Brandon in 2006. Levy was a figurehead, and when he decided to say 'adios", tellingly, the Bills didn't bother to fill the GM position. Brandon and Jauron actually made personnel decisions, 2006-2009. Certainly the Bills operated with second and third rate FO and coaching talent (maybe scouting, too) from 2006 through 2014. I think Whaley's ability to identify talent, especially in unexpected places, masked a lot of sins. I think that the Rex Ryan hire was Terry Pegula exercising his perogative as owner, and that debacle led Pegula to turn back to Brandon, eventually giving him control of both the Bills and the Sabres. I think that the hiring of new offensive coaches and improved performance in FA in 2019 reflect Beane as GM without being under whatever monetary restrictions that Brandon, always the money-ball guy, seems to have imposed.

Brady wasn't even good enough to be a full time starter at Michigan. He played well when he got the opportunity but Drew Henson was the primary starter. If Henson hadn't chosen to play baseball , he would have gone higher than Brady. Part of the Henson/Brady "rivalry" was athletic department politics (the AD favored Henson in order to keep Henson playing baseball), but Brady was not clearly superior to Henson even without interference by the AD.

If we, as a species, didn't embrace change, we'd still be wandering naked in the warmer parts of the world, hiding from all the carnivores big enough to eat us, and grubbing/scavenging for whatever we could find to eat. Where do you think change should have stopped? With the use of fire? With the domestication of the wolf? With learning to cultivate crops? With the invention of writing? Where do you draw the line where you oppose more changes? Every change brings positives and negatives, but generally, those changes make things "good" for things better in the long run. That's a generalization that's totally unsupported by any facts. Why do you think that just because a player makes big $$$ that he would opposed to sharing the largess from the NFL's pot of gold with his teammates? NFL teams stress being "a band of brothers" rather than individuals, so it's more likely that opposition to a 17th game would stem from individual perspectives not from a general divide between the elite and the rest of the players. FTR, since the "union leadership" is answerable through elections to the rank-and-file, why would they favor the relatively few players making huge salaries to the detriment of the majority? If the NFLPA leadership opposes the new CBA, it's because it's not giving the rank and file good enough salary, health insurance, and retirement benefits.

Mea culpa. They did play him at RT. I think that maybe he was drafted with the intention to play him at LT and he just didn't play well enough to beat out Jonas Jennings.

I think that Rosen is done in the NFL. I think he doesn't have the presence on the field (Brian Flores called it 'body language') needed to a starting QB in the NFL. I think he's unlikely to get another serious shot at a starting job.

Some positions taken in the bottom third of the first round are pretty productive at producing Pro Bowlers, especially interior OLers and DBs. Alex Mac, Maurkise Pouncey, and Dave DeCastro were all taken after #20. DBs like White, Aqib Talib, and Ed Reed. Troy Polumalu was taken at #18 IIRC.

I forgot about Mike Williams, but he was another great example. Unlike Maybin, however, he was at least rated a top prospect while Maybin was rated much lower. I think the problem with Williams was that he was a RT in college that the Bills attempted to turn into a LT in the pros. He simply didn't have the skill set to be an NFL LT. He probably would have had a longer, better career if he'd been kept at RT or moved to OG early on his career.

I disagree that "often times players this late in the draft have a 2nd round grade". The bottom third of the first round is an excellent spot to pick up OLers, especially guards and centers. With RBs being seriously discounted in this era, great RBs can be had there, and there are a couple in this draft class. Certainly great CBs and Ss can be found in this area, too. Teams get into problems when they decide that they NEED to draft a QB or WR or DE in the first round, and settle for a lesser prospect at a specific position rather than taking a much better prospect at another position -- and that can happen at any spot in the draft. The classic Bills blunder in this manner occurred in 2009 when the Bills, with the #11 pick, took bust Aaron Maybin because they needed an edge rusher while leaving much better prospects like Brian Orapko and Clay Matthews on the board.

^^^ The Bills need better role and depth players than they currently have at a lot of positions. Just because a team can't afford to have superstars at all positions doesn't mean that it has to fill its roster only with JAGs, practice squad refugees, and Day 3 draft picks. Almost all of the playoff teams that actually won playoff games this season have at least a couple of well known but past their prime veterans from other teams who were acquired for limited roles or "just in case". Some of those older "been there, done that" vets are exactly what young teams on the upswing need to have in the locker room and on the sidelines. I would love to have Bradham on the Bills in that kind of role.

IMO, the Bills desperately need a WR1 in 2020 and the chances of getting one in the draft who would be that from opening day is between slim and none. At best, they could expect a WR taken #22 to eventually develop into a WR1. Moreover, not only is the draft is much more a crapshoot than acquiring a top veteran, I'm an advocate of taking BPA over need. I don't want to see the Bills take a WR with only second round talent at #22 because they need a WR and pass on a much better prospect at another position like OL, RB or DB. Either trading for a WR like Golladay or Diggs or signing a top vet in FA works for me. Acquire a top veteran WR and draft a promising one. If the Bills are serious about building a perennial playoff contender, they have to put quality talent around their QB no matter who that QB is. Look at what having top offensive talent did for both the Saints and the Chiefs when their starting QBs were injured and missed games early in the season.

That's a valid priority but Beane didn't prioritize the OL either until 2019. The OL in 2017 was below average but serviceable but then Wood was forced into retirement by injury. That wasn't on McDermott or Beane. However, the Bills got rid of Incognito, which may have been partly on McDermott/Beane but it's not clear because of Incognito's mental issues. Then the Bills traded away their best OLer, LT Cordy Glenn, in order to move up in the first round of the draft. That's a competent C, a Pro Bowl LG, and an above average LT missing from the OL. The Bills replaced them with backups, bottom feeder career backups, and practice squad refugees. In the draft, the Bills only got around to drafting an OLer toward the end of the fifth round, Wyatt Teller. Teller was traded away to Cleveland for a pair of Day 3 draft picks at the end of the 2019 preseason rather than cutting him. In 2018, the Bills essentially had no plan for offense at all much less any priority for offense except to make a big splash by drafting a QB high in the first round. In fact, I would argue that 2018 was essentially a reprise of the Bills "offensive" plan of 2013 when Brandon and Whaley drafted EJ Manuel in order to excite the fan base. The difference was that there were actually QBs in the 2018 draft who were worth drafting in the first round.

You are continually making excuses for the stupid offensive decisions the McDermott/Beane regime made in 2017-2018. There really aren't any. They demonstrated remarkable incompetence in their offensive personnel transactions, including hiring terrible offensive assistant coaches and poor draft decisions (more so in 2017), that suggested they were both completely clueless about offensive football, starting with not re-signing or trading away three NFL caliber WRs in 2017 and not replacing any of them with WRs good enough to play in the NFL much less start, until 2019. Furthermore, the Bills "cap hell" in 2018 was largely of McDermott/Beane's own making as they not only sent players packing without regard to cap implications as in dead cap space as well as the cost of replacing those players. They also wasted cap space by trading for/signing FAs like Corey Coleman and AJ McCarron. In McCarron's case, it seems that he signed with the Bills with the belief that he would get a legitimate shot at being the starter and felt that he didn't get a fair chance at doing so. If the Bills didn't intend to have Allen playing early in his rookie season, then they should have kept Tyrod Taylor or brought in a FA QB better than McCarron to be the starter -- and they definitely should have brought in a better backup QB than Nathan Peterman. They literally dithered for a month during the season after Peterman proved himself incompetent waiting for Derek Anderson to decide whether to come out of retirement as if he were the only back up QB available! Moreover, they had no excuse for not hiring an experienced QB coach for their prize rookie. David Culley's only experience as a QB coach had been a single football season 30 years before in a small collegiate program. It was only in 2019 that the Bills FO started performing competently. Beane and McDermott replaced most of the offensive assistants. They added an experienced, dedicated QB coach for Allen. Beane signed some decent OLers and WRs in FA. They drafted better, too, on the offensive side of the ball. My guess is that there was a significant change in the Bills organization, and that Beane was given more authority in 2019 than he had previously. The resignation of "Mr Moneyball" Russ Brandon in the wake of a sexual harassment scandal in May, 2018, seems likely to be the change that allowed Beane/McDermott to demonstrate that they might actually know what they were doing. In 2017-2018, the Bills personnel moves were depressingly similar to the ones made throughout Brandon's tenure first as the Bills defacto GM and then defacto owner between 2006-2013.