SoTier

That's my "big picture", dude. 2000 was the last year of the remains of the Glory Years as John Butler, AJ Smith, etc left the Bills for San Diego, and Wade Phillips was sent packing. 2000 was the first year of the Drought. 2000 was the year Bill Belichick became the Patriots HC and drafted Tom Brady in the 6th round of the 2000 draft, a dramatic changing of the guard in the AFCE and NFL from the Bills dominating the AFCE and AFC for most of the decade to the Patriots dominating the AFCE, the AFC, and the NFL for two decades. You cannot claim that the current regime is somehow "different from" previous regimes unless you actually know what those previous regimes did. I'm sorry that you don't like the fact that the record of the current regime hasn't been significantly better than previous ones but facts are pesky things when they contradict the favored story line. No, I answered a poster claiming I didn't "see the big picture". I could say I'm sorry that you don't like that but I'd be lying. I don't care if you like it or not. The Bills history over the last twenty years is NOT POSITIVE in any way, shape or form. Unless or until McDermott proves he's not another poor/mediocre HC, he's no better than his predecessors. I'm not proud. I'll gladly admit that McDermott is a good HC when he proves he's better than his predecessors but I'm not giving him kudos for being no better than Ryan, Marrone or Gailey. It's time for McDermott to prove it. Even a blind squirrel gets lucky and finds a nut occasionally. Andy Dalton threw a 49 yard TD pass to Tyler Boyd on 4th and 12 with 44 seconds left in the game, knocking the Ravens out of the playoffs and putting the Bills in ... on tie breakers. Ummm... not true. John Overdorf continues to manage the Bills contracts and cap situation so that the Bills continue to be unable to "afford" to re-sign most of the top young veterans they develop. If Josh Allen actually develops into a top NFL QB, Bills fans had best hope that the Bills resident "cap genius" retires before that happens because if the Bills couldn't afford to keep their best young vets when they didn't have a franchise QB, they'll either let Allen walk away or strip the team of talent first. Russ Brandon was in charge of the team from 2006 through 2017. In those twelve seasons, the team went 75-117 (.392), had 2 winning seasons, and a single one and done playoff "run". Prior to Pegula's buying the team, Brandon's team won only 43 of its 117 games (.368) , had 1 winning season, and no playoff appearances at all. Why did Pegula keep Brandon when he sent almost all of the rest of Wilson's FO hangers-on packing? Why did he promote Brandon to a position in which he ran both the Bills and the Sabres, Pegula's other hapless, non-winning team? Except for Brandon making moves on the wrong female staff member, he'd STILL be in charge of both teams. Maybe that screams Pegula cares about winning to you, but it sure as hell doesn't to me, but I'm sure you'll find some "logical" reason for keeping and promoting Brandon other than his infamous ability to put butts in the seats. Nobody who's been critical of the McDermott/Beane regime has been demanding 10 wins, and most aren't even demanding 9 wins. I certainly haven't. Why is it NOT realistic to expect that with much better talent and a more experienced young QB, a competently coached team can win 2 more games than the previous 6 win season if there are no catastrophic injuries that derail the team? McDermott was responsible for that "stripped down team" because he wanted to replace players he didn't like with "his guys" ... and yeah, I included 2017. Why not? It's not like a 9-7 season and making a wild card slot on a tie-breaker over another 9-7 team is such a monumental accomplishment that it was all that special -- except to desperate Bills fans. Since the Bills reverted to form, record wise, in 2018, it's on McDermott to prove that 2018 was the exception and 2017 was the norm.

Really???? A summary of the Bills record since 2000 shows this record ... In 2000 the Bills won 8 games but went 3-13 in 2001. In 2002 the Bills won 8 games but went 6-10 in 2003. In 2004 the Bills won 9 games but went 5-11 in 2005. Between 2006 and 2013, the Bills failed to win more than 7 games in a season. In 2014 the Bills won 9 games and then 8-8 in 2015 but then 7-9 in 2016. In 2017 the Bills won 9 games but they went 6-10 in 2018. The "big picture" of the Bills organization over the past two decades has been one of losing seasons infrequently interrupted by a handful of non-losing ones. The Bills only managed to put together back-to-back non-losing seasons in 2014 and 2015 when Marrone coached the team to 9-7 and Ryan coached the team to 8-8. Their only playoff appearance occurred in 2017. Bills HCs since 2000 ... 2000 Wade Phillips, 8-8 2001-2003 Gregg Williams, 17-21 2004-2005 Mike Mularkey, 14-18 2006-2009 Dick Jauron, 24-33 2009 Perry Fewell, 3-4 2010-2012 Chan Gailey, 16-32 2013-2014 Doug Marrone, 15-17 2015-2016 Rex Ryan, 15-16 2016 Anthonly Lynn, 0-1 2017-2018 Sean McDermott, 15-17 Dick Jauron also had a plan, significant control of the roster, and tried to create a team which fit his plan. Unfortunately, his plan was seriously flawed. In some ways, McDermott's insistence of building a team that fits his plan -- specifically preferring attitude and effort over talent -- echoes Jauron's plan. McDermott's issues with his offensive assistants, including his OCs, echo Jauron's poor choices for offensive coaches. The 2017 Bills that made the playoffs was not a team that fit Sean McDermott's plan; it had been built by Doug Whaley to fit the "plans" of Doug Marrone and Rex Ryan with McDermott's "plan" tacked on to it. McDermott owns the 6-10 2018 and he'll own the 2019 team because the rosters were/are filled with players he picked to fit his plan. So, if his plan is worth continuing on with, it has to show results this season. Beane went out and got him more talent on the offense as well as adding some nice youngsters for the defense. I don't think that's enough for the team to challenge NE or SD or KC but they should be good enough to win at least as many games as they lose (8-8). The offensive assistants, including OC Brian Daboll, need to do better. The defense also needs to step up, especially against the run, and especially late in games. McDermott needs to do better. He needs to produce wins not losses masked as "moral victories", ie not getting blown out by NE or losing a close game in the closing seconds because the defense can't make a clutch play when it needs it. It's put up or shut up time.

The last time I looked, HCs are responsible for the performance of the defense, offense, and special teams. If the 2019 offense is again poor with a healthy Josh Allen, the buck does NOT stop with Brian Daboll. McDermott will have struck out with 2 OCs as well as most of his offensive assistants in just 3 seasons. How does this suggest in any way that McDermott is going to get any better at it if he gets more time??? As for Beane, if Allen does not show significant progress towards becoming a competent NFL starting QB -- if he's making the same mistakes, if he continues to run too much, if he doesn't improve his short passing game and decision making etc -- that seriously suggests he's going to be a bust. Surrounding a bust with all the talent in world cannot make him a good QB. Mahomes would have shown himself a good QB in 2018 if he'd had had half the offensive talent around him. Mark Sanchez and Christian Ponder played for very talented teams that actually made the playoffs despite their poor QBs. Spending a fortune in draft capital to draft a bust can get any GM fired. They DID ask Incognito to take a pay cut, however, which may or may not have contributed to his psych problems. They also traded away Cordy Glenn -- and don't give me this "he was injury prone" excuse because they went out and signed Morse who also is allegedly "injury prone". They also might have addressed the OL in the 2018 draft before the end of the fifth round when they finally got around to drafting Wyatt Teller. How can NFL professionals NOT realize the importance of having a good OL, especially when they've sunk a fortune in a rookie QB???? I see the big picture just fine. I see that the Bills under McDermott and Beane bear a depressing resemblance to previous failed Bills regimes despite a change at the ownership level. I see a team that three years into a new regime isn't significantly more talented than it was in 2016 and probably even be less so, and which remains uncompetitive with the elite teams in the NFL. IOW, I don't see much progress at this point. Maybe the 2019 season changes that with the development of young players from the last three drafts along with the addition of key FAs, but it's time for the current regime to produce results not promises.

I'm not sure what you consider a failure. Obviously, you have much more tolerance for poor performance than I do, because going 6-10 the season after a playoff appearance screams "FAIL!" to me. IMO, McDermott has completely used up any and all of his free passes. Because of league parity imposed by the salary cap, good coaching is essential. Part of being a good NFL HC is hiring good assistants. That's why certain HCs produce winners anywhere and everywhere they go and create "coaching trees" of former assistants who go on to become good HCs on their own. McDermott's assistants on offense and special teams have been disasters. That's what happens in almost any endeavor when you rely on nepotism to fill key positions. Many of his personnel decisions have been questionable at best ... Peterman and Jones from the 2017 draft are most notable. McDermott puts a better product on the field -- ie, minimum 8 wins -- or he deserves to be unemployed for 2020. As for Beane, at least he's not saddled with the 2017 draft but the only thing that he's done positive is go "all in" on a QB. His fate will be determined by Josh Allen's success or failure, and at least he has tried to improve Allen's supporting cast this season which gives the kid at least a chance to succeed.

You have repeatedly questioned my fandom since I dared to question the belief among many posters here that McDermott and Beane walk on water. I simply chose not to respond to your posts in recent months until this one.

I never wish any player to fail, whether they once played for the Bills, currently play for the Bills or never played for the Bills. Even as poor a player as Bennie Anderson or Nathan Peterman. Even as hated a player as Tom Brady. Furthermore, don't even pretend that you know anything about me or my motivations. Contrary to your continual slander, I have never wished for the Bills to lose or do badly. Unlike yourself, however, I no longer blindly believe that the people who run the team --- from ownership down to assistant coaches -- know what they're doing -- and the team's record since John Butler left all the way to the present support my cynicism that the current regime is somehow different from the failed previous ones, including the 2018 offensive horror show. I don't need to hope that Watkins lights up the league just to find "ammunition" to criticize the McDermott/Beane regime's personnel moves. All I have to do is point to Stephon Gilmore, Robert Woods, and Ronald Darby ...as well as Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Matthews, and AJ McCarron plus the entire mismanagement of the QB situation in 2018 starting with determining that they were going to draft a first round QB but not bothering to hire a QB coach with any experience as a QB coach in the last 30 years.

Watkins' two teams since he was traded were loaded at WR, so he was never his QB's favorite target. In LA, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods were already established as Goff's go-to guys before Watkins joined the team. In KC, Tyreek Hill was already established as the Chiefs' #1 WR. Currently Hill's status is in limbo. If Hill is suspended for some or all of the season, Watkins will likely become Mahomes' primary target, and he could very well "set the league on fire" in 2019.

The history of the NFL is littered with QBs with tremendous physical talent who busted because they lacked the right psychological make up to enable them to succeed. JP Losman always comes to mind when I think of a QB with great talent who just couldn't make the right play under pressure. I think your description of why Fitzpatrick always ends up throwing INTs in key situations is perfect. While Nate Peterman doesn't fit the scenario of having "tremendous physical talent" he has enough physical talent that he probably could have a productive career as an NFL backup QB if only he could keep himself from getting baited into trying to throw passes he can't possibly complete except to a defender in game action. I'm convinced that's why Peterman can look so great in practice and even look decent in preseason games but comes apart in regular season games. Allen doesn't seem to be saddled with the bad decision making that derailed Losman or that derails Fitzpatrick and Peterman but it's entirely possible -- very likely in fact -- that if or how well Allen can change/overcome his own psychological limitations will impact his success in the NFL. Being physically able to throw accurate short passes is likely not one of Allen's problems, but being able to consistently throw short when his natural inclination is to chuck it downfield may very well be a serious problem for him. Every young QB faces the same issue of overcoming psychological inclinations, so it's not something unique to Allen. The ultimate "intrangible" -- psychological limitations/inclinations -- is what makes finding franchise QBs so difficult.

A five year rebuild may very well be ridiculous in today's NFL -- if the ownership is dedicated to having a winning team. In the last twenty years, teams going from bottom feeders -- non playoff teams of various quality -- to playoff teams within two or three years has become a benchmark for judging rebuilds. Really good organizations not only field playoff teams within two or three years of bringing in a new coaching regime, they frequently make the Super Bowl within 3 or 4 years. Teams that fail to make significant progress quickly in a rebuild don't ever seem to quite get there. The problem may be the ownership, FO, coaching staff or the lack of a franchise QB or poor personnel decisions in general or any combination, but "incremental rebuild" seems to be a euphemism for "perpetual rebuild mode" that teams like Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, Miami, and New York Jets have been in seemingly forever even if said teams occasionally make playoff appearances. I agree that the Bills personnel, especially on offense, doesn't match up very well with the top teams in the league. They've added talent, but they started out with almost none on offense and added pretty modest veteran talent except for perhaps Morse, so regularly competing with the big guns doesn't seem realistic at this point. I don't think that can be an excuse, however, for them not making significant improvement in 2019. I think a losing record with a healthy Josh Allen for all or almost all of the season raises all kinds of red flags that the current regime isn't all that different from previous regimes.

I don't owe Wawrow any apology. I criticized his article because I felt that he was simply repeating "the company line" from the Bills FO and he took exception to that. That's fine. It's a discussion. Since then, however, he's personally insulted me at least twice. He's also personally insulted/attacked other posters who dared criticize his views. In this thread, he's repeatedly wrapped himself in his professional connections/knowledge when making his case for his views, but he's repeated sunk to ad hominem attacks on those who disagree with his views. That's most unprofessional. PS -- I'm not surprised that you're taking up his cause since you, too, apparently have difficulty with opinions that don't mirror your own.

The Bills weren't any better prepared to cultivate a QB last season when they drafted Allen. David Culley, the QB coach, hadn't coached QBs in thirty years. It was just another part of the total mismanagement of the QB position in 2018 despite having invested so much in a first round QB. Obviously, the truth hurts. LOL.

^^^ Well, before Allen gets to prove he's better than Mahomes or Watson, he'll have to prove that he's a bonafide NFL starting QB, something that he's not done yet. Personally, I don't think the Bills have nearly enough offensive talent on the sidelines or on the field to enable him to do more in 2019 than prove 1) he's not a bust and maybe 2) that he could become a very good QB in the future. What's vapid is continually demanding "accountabiilty" from players and assistant coaches but constantly making excuses for bad decisions from the ownership, GM and HC.

I went back 20 years because I remembered Belichick's early success, which seemed like a good starting point. I didn't expect to find so many Super Bowl contenders prior to the last ten years having success early on after a HC change but that's what happened. My guess is that it's related to the salary cap in that smart organizations choose NOT to tear down and start from scratch when they made new coaching hires because they were reluctant to create too much dead cap space. Keep in mind that I only used Super Bowl participants, and not the numerous other teams that started making the playoffs with regularity after hiring a new HC. I cannot give the Bills a pass because Beane is a neophyte GM. I don't think that's necessarily the problem. I think McDermott is the problem in that he was given way too much power over the roster for a first time HC. He seems to have a good eye for defensive talent (White and Milano) but seems poor at evaluating offensive talent (Jones, Dawkins, and Peterman) from 2017 when he bears sole responsibility for that draft. The 2018 and 2019 drafts seem better but it's not clear how much control McDermott had of those. What's fact is that the Bills have spent 3 of their 4 first round picks in the last 3 drafts on defense, and they have spent a lot of draft capital trading up for players other than a potential QB, which does not seem like a wise long-term strategy in the salary cap era when it is so essential to fill lots of roster spots with quality younger players still on their rookie contracts. I totally agree that coaches, especially offensive assistant coaches, have been a continual problem with the Bills for the entire drought era. McDermott's offensive assistants have been awful which is very troublesome. I stand by my belief that the Bills need to show marked improvement, especially on offense, in 2019. Good organizations start showing their true colors early on; bad/mediocre ones always have excuses for their lack of improvement. The Bills were 9-7 in 2014, 7-9 in 2015, and 8-8 in 2016, so they weren't "dregs" either before McDermott was hired. The choice to tear down and rebuild was a choice made by McDermott and Beane, so they don't get a pass for that decision. Most successful teams in the salary cap era choose to retool when they have a decently talented roster and bring in a new HC ... which was the Bills in 2017. I agree that the Bills need to improve significantly this year.

Aside from actually making the playoffs in 2017 rather than missing them because of tie-breakers and spending a ton of resources to draft Allen in 2018, what "trends" suggest that this regime "will be able to make moves as needed" to be anything different than a team that wobbles between 6 and 9 wins for the foreseeable future just as it has for the previous 19? Letting good, young DBs and WRs walk in FA rather than re-signing them and using high draft picks to replace them? Failing to provide their QBs with adequate protection and targets? Wasting a roster spot on an incompetent backup QB like Nathan Peterman? Hiring assistant coaches with, at best, modest resumes, including a QB coach with no relevant professional experience as a QB in 30 years? Since you're willing to wait 5 more years for McDermott and Beane to get their acts together, then you're good with 7 wins in 2019 and 8 or 9 wins with no playoffs in 2020? My guess is that you'll be pretty lonely in your support for the current regime at that point. Excuse me, but this is 2019 not 1989, and how teams were built 30 or 35 years ago is totally irrelevant to how things work today. A good organization with a good coaching staff produces a turn around in short order, not taking a half decade or more to become Super Bowl participants. Bill Belichick was hired in 2000. The Patriots won their first Super Bowl after the 2001season. Jon Gruden was hired in 2002. The Bucs won the Super Bowl after the 2002 season. Tony Dungy was hired in 2002. The Colts won the Super Bowl after the 2006 season. John Fox was hired in 2002. The Panthers went to the Super Bowl after the 2003 season. Lovie Smith was hired in 2004. The Bears went to the Super Bowl after the 2006 season. Tom Coughlin was hired in 2004. The Giants won the Super Bowl after the 2007 season. Sean Payton was hired in 2006. The Saints won the Super Bowl after the 2009 season. Pete Carroll was hired in 2010. The Seahawks won the Super Bowl after the 2013 season. Doug Pederson was hired in 2016. The Eagles won the Super Bowl after the 2017 season. Sean McVay was hired in 2017. The Rams went to the Super Bowl after the 2018 season. Numerous other teams made turn arounds from bottom feeders to regular playoff teams within 3 years of bringing in new coaches and/or coach/gms even if they didn't make it to the Super Bowl. If the Bills don't seriously contend for the playoffs in 2019 and win at least 9 games, then there seriously has to be conversations about why. I don't think that a losing record will be acceptable, especially if Allen stays healthy or only misses 1 or 2 games. I think you meant Favre was traded for. Rodgers was drafted with the 24th pick in the 2005 draft.

What you seem to be is a reporter whose access to the team is dependent upon putting positive spin on whatever the team does and who gets very defensive when posters here criticize your acceptance of the conditions for your access. Another member of the "No Critiicism of the Bills Allowed" Brigade heard from!

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. UDFA rookie Phillip Lindsay of the Broncos rushed for nearly 1100 yards in 15 games and 9 TDs. That's "significant UDFA success". It still doesn't constitution a "successful career" for him, which implies that the player makes team rosters for several NFL seasons.

Well, just because he only fired one assistant, Dennison, certainly doesn't mean that there were others that deserved a second season -- or should have even been hired in the first place. Certainly not hiring an experienced QB coach after they decided to draft a first round QB was also a major mistake IMO. Their QB coached last actually coached QBs back in his days as a collegiate assistant thirty years ago.

Since McDermott was instrumental in determining the makeup of those two rosters, I'm not giving him a pass because he's demonstrated his preference for "process" over talent ... and yeah, I think numerous coaches could have gotten more wins from 2018 roster simply by sending Nathan Peterman packing before the start of the season ... his pick 6 in the last minute of the fourth quarter in Texans' game, which was tied at the time, lost the Bills all chance to win that game. If McDermott is, he hasn't demonstrated it much over two years. His teams have been too often unprepared and his game time coaching has been mediocre at best -- and the numerous blow-outs over two seasons underscore that. As for your first point, with Pegula as the owner, you're probably right. After all, he had to actually spend time considering whether he should fire Phil Housley after the horrendous collapse of the Sabres at the end of the season. Football is football, and there are numerous other games to watch while the Bills are getting their butts handed to them as regularly as the Bills have during McDermott's tenure.

I'm sure that McDermott's love affair with Nathan Peterman contributed to his ranking.

Obviously, it's not too early to fit Beane and McDermott for their gold HOF blazers.

Where did I say that Allen was doomed to failure because he didn't play all that well as a rookie? I said that he has to improve his passing and decision making significantly as a sophomore if we can truly expect him to become a good/great QB, and if he does that, then his stats will reflect his improvement as will the team record. Statistics are simply reflections of how well a QB plays, and that means passing statistics. If a QB can run -- provided he doesn't get hurt -- then that's only icing on the cake, but it does not cancel out mediocre passing ability and decision making, As for "cherry picking", that's exactly what you did by only citing Manning's rookie season. Peyton Manning had a higher completion percentage as a rookie (56+%) than Allen (52+%). He threw 26 TDs, 28 INTs, 3700+ yards and his team went 3-13. If he had continued putting up those kinds of numbers, he'd have been considered a bust not a future first ballot HOFer. However, in his second season, Manning made major improvements in his passing and decision making that resulted in him increasing his completion percentage to 62% and throwing another 26 TDs but only 15 INTs for almost 400 more yards ... with the Colts going 13-3. Manning did what I said Allen has to do: improve his passing game and his decision making. It's what just about every single successful QB since Manning has done, too. How good a QB becomes largely depends upon how much and how long he can keep improving his play over the course of his career. QB busts like Ryan Leaf or J'Marcus Russell never make significant improvement. Others like David Carr, Mark Sanchez or EJ Manuel make modest improvements but hit their ceilings fairly early. Some, like Joe Flacco, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger or Andy Dalton improve more over longer periods. Then you have the guys like Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Brees, and Wilson who seem to only get better with age.

I didn't realize 13 games, 3 starts, and 27 receptions for 541 yards (Foster) or 7 games and starts and 3 pass defenses (Wallace) constituted successful NFL careers. Millano at least played in 29 games over 2 seasons, starting 18, but again, that's hardly a "successful career" at this point. The author of this article is really scraping the bottom of the barrel to come up with examples of UDFAs and day three draft picks who've done well for the Bills.

Actually, all the 2018 first round QBs except for Rosen showed marked improvement as the season progressed. I expect all of them to show at least some improvement coming into 2019. How much they improve from where they were last season and if they continue to improve throughout 2019 will be real indicators of their future success. Your A, B & D reasons are true for almost every QB who's drafted in the first round. Your examples of his leadership skills (C) aren't really very good. Lots of mediocre QBs have done both. Allen got his teammates to play better last season -- within the limits of their less than average abilities in too many cases unfortunately -- which is the key indicator of a QB having the "it factor". That on-field leadership is what Allen demonstrated last season, and is probably his most encouraging trait. His teammates believe in him now, but in order for them to continue to believe -- and give that extra bit of effort -- Allen has to up his game, too. He has got to get better as a passer and a decision maker, and if he does that, then his stats --and his analytics -- will automatically improve. A QB who can't complete somewhere around 60% of his pass attempts isn't going to lead his team to many wins. A QB who throws too many INTs or takes too many sacks or fumbles too often because he holds the ball too long isn't going to lead his team to many wins --- and his teammates aren't going to continue to follow his lead without on field success.

I don't have a clue if Allen will succeed or fail, so I don't have an opinion on that. He did not have a good rookie season. That's not an opinion, it's a fact. How he did as a rookie, however, is largely irrelevant in determining whether he becomes successful or not. How much he improves as a second year starter will be far more predictive. Virtually all the good/great QBs over the last twenty years improved significantly in their second season over how they did in their first. That doesn't mean that he has to become a Pro Bowler as a sophomore but rather that he has to show improvement in the skills that good/great QBs possess. I was surprised and encouraged by how Allen played in 2018 but how he plays this coming season will be much more predictive. He needs to improve significantly from where he finished 2018 even if that improvement isn't reflected in gaudy statistics for any number of reasons, including coaching, tream offensive philosophy, offensive talent, etc. I think that he needs to make continual improvement over the course of the year so that he's not only better in 2019 than he was in 2018 but that he's a better QB in December than in September or October. That would indicate that he's still not reached his ceiling and can improve more in the future.

Did he really "always seemed to pick the correct time to run" or did he simply run because, like many rookie QBs, he didn't know what else to do with defenders coming after him? Moreover, while hurdling LBs makes for spectacular highlights, it's almost a guarantee that a QB is not long for the NFL if he makes it a habit. If you want to watch a QB who "knows the correct time to run" -- and how to do it -- watch Russell Wilson extend Seahag drives with regularity -- and usually without taking a hit, too.