SoTier

Looking at the second chart, it seems to me that the quality of the QB, the quality of the kicker, and the quality of the defense are three big factors in determining how conservative or aggressive a team tends to be. There are other factors as well, probably opponent and game situation being most important. KC has a great QB not playing his best, a great kicker (with Butker at least), and an excellent defense. They can afford to be conservative. Pittsburgh has mediocre at best QB(s), an excellent kicker, and a great defense. They have to be conservative. The Bills have a great QB, a pretty good kicker, and a pretty good defense. They can afford to be aggressive. The Lions have a great QB (at least this year), a pretty good kicker, and a pretty good defense. They can afford to be aggressive.

There was some discussion of this when the Bears fired their OC. A number of analysts explained that OCs started young QBs with plays they were familiar with and good at so that they had some success. Then they added more plays and more complexity as the young QBs mastered the easier stuff. These analysts used CJ Stroud last season and Jayden Daniels this season as examples of how play calling could help a young QB. They felt that that was not what Chicago was doing with Caleb Williams. IIRC, Brady, Warner, and Purdy all got their chances because the starting QBs got hurt. Most young QBs in the same situations don't succeed, though. Part of it is the coaching they get but a lot of it is also their natural ability IMO.

The NFL finally forced Snyder out prior to the 2023 season, so the new regime was in place last season. They got Daniels in their second draft. Posters on TSW are always whining about how the Bills are "wasting" Allen because they've failed to get to a SB, but Burrow is in a situation where his talent is really being wasted. He's lighting up the league but his team can't win games because there are so many holes on the rest of the team. That said, I don't put Cinci in the same category as the Bills, Lions, and Commanders used to be or as the Jests are now. They're more like the Dolphins and Colts and maybe the Falcons. They aren't good but they aren't perpetual bottom feeders, either. Teams don't really expect many QBs drafted after the first round to become franchise QBs, but when one you drafted looks like crap on your team but goes on to have a decent career elsewhere like Geno Smith, it's just more evidence of incompetence. Woody was the ambassador to the UK during the first Trump administration (seasons 2017-2020) which didn't improve the Jests all that much. Why would another stint as ambassador change anything with the Jests? It's wishful thinking on the part of Jests fans IMO.

Long time bottom feeder franchises are like leopards. They don't change their spots. The only way for these franchises to become winning football teams is regime change from the top down. That means new ownership as well as the removal any left over major decision makers remaining in the organization. Changing GMs, HCs, and players might get a winning season or two or even a WC game every decade or so, but there's no real sustained improvement because the way the organization is run isn't conducive to building a winning football team. Three examples: Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, and Washington Commanders.

How will that help? They've whiffed on 3 top five QBs in the last 15 years: Sanchez (2009), Darnold (2018), and Wilson (2021) plus a 2nd rounder in 2013 (Smith). Smith and Darnold have gone on to become decent starting QBs, which is only more embarrassing because both looked like something nasty you don't want to step in when with the Jests.

Actually, the Bills' window has probably widened. Woody Johnson still owns the team, and his boy Aaron is solidified as second-in-command.

In previous years, the Bills lacked a good short yardage running game that could enable them to move the sticks on 3rd or 4th and 1 or score a TD from the 3 yard line. Allen was the only player who was consistently successful running in short yardage situations. Now, the Bills have 3 RBs who can pick up that 2 yards on third down or score a TD from the 5. That's priceless in the playoffs when all the teams are solid in all phases.

McDermott, Babich, and Brady outcoached Reid, Spagnulo, and Nagy on Sunday. The defense held Mahomes to 198 yards passing plus they intercepted him twice, sacked him twice I think but pressured him a lot more. They did that by maintaining their rush lanes and keeping Mahomes in the pocket. The offense couldn't run a lot between the twenties, but Cook ran for 2 TDs in goal to go situations. Receivers didn't drop many passes, and Cooper's two were both slick. I'll take it, especially against the Chiefs.

Hollins is one of those unsung but very useful players every team needs. I wonder where all the posters who were whining about the Bills signing him have gone.

Fans be fans. At least the Chiefs fans have a real basis for their expectations, quite unlike the fans of a certain NJ-based team who spun Super Bowl dreams based on the acquisition of an old QB and some old OLers.

KC's D is really tough against the run, so I wasn't surprised that the running game didn't do much. OTOH, they did a good job in the red zone, and that translates into more TDs than FGs. On Cook's second TD, they opened a huge hole for him straight to the EZ.

I don't think that's what most fans in this thread are doing at all. I think that the OP was a bit over the top with his choice of the word "irrefutable" but he or she never went beyond claiming that with a healthy defense the Bills would have beaten KC in last year's playoffs. If beating the reigning SB champions and ending their 15 game winning streak while extending their own winning streak isn't a reason for happy Bills fans to spin SB fantasies, what would be, especially since the Bills are 9-2 themselves and almost guaranteed a home playoff game? If you can't embrace optimism for the Bills' chances, that's okay, but what's the point of complaining about others enjoying themselves?

The worst thing that happened to the Giants wasn't winning a playoff game. It was Daniel Jones' playing well enough to look like he could become a decent NFL starting QB. Were both Schoen and Daboll fooled or did ownership make the decision to keep him over their objections? Maybe everyone on the Giants brain trust mistakenly supported keeping Jones. I think if both Schoen and Daboll are retained, it would be an indicator that ownership had had significant input into keeping him.

What does it matter if fans get excited over a win over the Chiefs in November and speculate that maybe things would have been different in previous years if the team had been healthy ... and why do you fear that???

Nobody is rewriting history. In the 2023 divisional round, they lost to a KC team that got back key players from injury for the game because of a missed FG in the closing seconds despite fielding a so undermanned defense that they had to start a MLB called out of retirement -- and that MLB had been a marginal player even in his prime. As for Mahomes not being at his best yesterday, well, maybe that was because of the Bills defense. The Bills pass rush continually pressured Mahomes. He threw INTs on his first and last passes of the game because of that pressure -- and the Bills' determined efforts to keep him in the pocket -- a defense led by Bernard. Oh, yeah, and the Bills put up 30 points on the vaunted Chiefs defense that hadn't given up more than 28 points in nine games with an offensive unit missing OLer Brown, WR Coleman, and TE Kincaid. Yesterday, the Bills were better prepared and better coached than the Chiefs, and they were the better team. If the Bills come into the playoffs with a reasonably healthy roster, they are certainly capable of turning Mahomes and Company into a pumpkin.