SoTier

Drafting defense for at least 2 of the Bills first 3 picks hardly seems to be a "playing not to lose" strategy. Tempering going BPA with team needs is a sound strategy for a team that, contrary to the repeated claims of some posters on TSW, is not so devoid of talent that almost any player taken in the first or second round will be better than what is currently on the team. This draft is supposed to be really deep with defensive talent, so the Bills may be able to get much better defensive players, especially in the first and/or second rounds, than they would in other drafts. Moreover, the Bills have several defensive positions that could be upgraded with early round rookies, namely DT, DE, and CB, so they're not locked into a single position. Conversely, it's not likely that a prime offensive prospect could fall far enough down in the first round that the Bills could take him. FYI -- The Bills currently do have decent OLers behind their starters, including SVP whom they selected in the 2024 draft. Because the Bills starting OLers have been so healthy the last 2 seasons, we haven't seen much of them. That doesn't preclude the Bills from drafting another OLer later in the draft as a development project.

JJ McCarthy says "Hi". There is no guarantee that any draft pick is going to play in his rookie season. Lots of CBs, including Tre White, have gone in bottom third of the first round and played well their entire rookie seasons. In a draft rich in defensive talent, the Bills can probably find a DLer at #30 or even a 2nd rounder, who can start playing decently some time in his rookie season, especially since the Bills use a DL rotation. I think you are making too big a deal of Bills rookies, most of whom are likely to be taken at the end of each round, making significant contributions. The Bills are not going to miss the playoffs because the rookies they draft aren't ready to start on Opening Day. That said, if the Bills were to trade up into the top half of the first round, I would expect that rookie to be good enough to play well as a rookie.

I don't think he will. If he does, he doesn't get paid at all for those games. If he holds out long enough, 2025 doesn't count, so he'd be exactly where he is now next season. Moreover, he risks Davis developing into a reliable three down, workhorse back who can be a reliable receiver out of the backfield and taking over the starting RB position while he's sitting out.

The QB class in this draft is simply not good enough to push Carter out of the top 5, much less close to #10. There's only Ward and Sanders even being discussed as likely first rounders. In the 2024 draft, 6 QBs went 1-2-3-8-10-12 which pushed the heralded WRs like Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze down to 4-6-9. TE Brock Bowers dropped to 13 and DE Jared Verse to 19 because of the all the teams chasing the QBs.

This is my position, too. I hope he agrees to a reasonable contract because I would love to see him stay with the Bills, but not at an inflated price. He's not an every down RB because he doesn't block all that well. He's also not a workhorse back like Barkley. I don't know where that puts his value to the Bills, but it's not close to Barkley territory. As for his "talk" on social media, I don't think that's going to influence the Bills FO one way or the other which seems to be something that the OP was hinting at when he started this thread.

Unless Epenesa and Knox are better than the guys the Titans already have on their roster, why would they want them?

I don't disagree that they drafted poorly. I just see their poor drafting as a symptom of what was wrong with the Bills in the last 2 decades of Ralph Wilson's ownership. They lost 2 excellent talent evaluators in Polian and Butler (3 if you include AJ Smith who left with Butler and became the Chargers GM after Butler died). I think some of their best scouts may have followed Butler west because the quality of the Bills draft picks, even high ones, dropped off. After Donahoe was fired, and Russ Brandon became the Bills de-facto GM (although Marv Levy held that title for a couple of years), Brandon and Jauron made personnel decisions. The quality of Bills drafts dropped even more. Lots of the Bills rosters between 2006 and 2010 were filled with UDFAs and waiver wire refugees. It improved somewhat under Nix and then Whaley, but the team's philosophy of maximizing profits lasted until Terry Pegula bought the team and hired Rex. Winfield wasn't re-signed during the Drought era. That's why I included him.

I think that one of Ralph's daughters was married to a guy who worked in the Bills finance department. He was probably the head of it, being the owner's SIL. I think maybe his name was Litman or something like that.

The draft is literally a crap shoot because highly rated draft picks crash and burn while great players come out of Day 2 or 3 in every draft, and good teams miss just like bad teams. I disagree that the Bills drafting was the reason why the Bills had the playoff drought. It was more a consequence of the team philosophy which always put maximizing profits ahead of winning football games, even during the Glory Years. Bill Polian was fired because he clashed with the finance guys in the 1990s. John Butler (and a significant part of the Bills pro personnel department) left for San Diego because the Chargers offered him more money. During the Drought, the Bills never re-signed their first rounders who did develop into good/great players except for Eric Wood -- most notably, Antoine Winfield, Nate Clements, Willis McGahey, Marshawn Lynch, Stephon Gillmore -- although they did keep some two who became notable busts after signing their second contracts: Mike Williams and Marcell Dareus. Under Tom Donahoe and especially Russ Brandon/Buddy Nix/Doug Whaley regimes, the Bills continually allowed their best players to leave in FA or via trade and used the draft to find replacements. FYI -- Tre White was the first first-round pick who developed into an outstanding player whom the Bills re-signed since the 1990s. He was drafted as a replacement for Stephon Gilmore whom the Bills allowed to hit FA (and helped the Patriots win SBs). I don't judge rookies. Some players who look terrible as rookies develop into good/great players. Others who look like good/great NFLers in their first season never ever play that well again. I'm a believer in giving rookies three years to show who they are, especially if they play a position which has a longer learning curve than some other positions. DT is certainly one of those positions.

Seriously????? Your statements reek of ignorance of history and misogyny. Just because there were laws on the books that made rape a capital offense doesn't mean that those laws were enforced and sentences applied equally. Even today, a woman who accuses a man, especially a wealthy or well-known man, of rape faces far more scrutiny of her "character" than does a woman who accuses a man of some other crime .... your assumptions about rape underscore your bias.

Abdul Carter all day, every day. Unfortunately, the Bills' entire draft (all 10 picks) is only worth 1464 points, which might get the Bills to #7 or #8. Carter will be long gone, even if two QBs go early.

Well said. I will add that it's not uncommon for victims of some kind of physical/psychological trauma to block the memory the trauma. We call it PTSD, and we mostly associate it with soldiers in combat situations, but it can happen to anyone. Sometimes, victims bury the memory of trauma so deep that they don't consciously remember it, but suffer from the hidden memories rattling around in their subconscious for years without even understanding why they're having flashbacks or nightmares or unprovoked fits of rage, etc.

Some fans just don't get this. Some players are simply best suited to play in only one kind of scheme and don't look particularly good in other systems. Sometimes it can also be coaching -- not necessarily how good or bad a particular coach may be but how that coach and player interact. The best example of this is the Eagles LB Zach Baun who was a JAG LB in New Orleans for 4 years. Philly took a chance on him, and something clicked -- maybe scheme, maybe coaching, maybe Philly cheese steaks rather than jambalaya. Whatever it was, Baun became an All Pro and was a finalist for DPOY in 2024.

I'm not sure the reasons are particularly "confounding". It may be as simple as there just aren't FAs available who a) have the skills the Bills need and b) agree to play for what the Bills can afford and c) are willing to play for the Bills in a particular FA period. All three of those conditions have to be met in order for a for a team to acquire a FA like Connor McGovern who works for them. Of course, guards and centers don't command the kind of money in free agency that pass rushers or wide receivers do, so the Bills can afford to sign higher level FA IOLers than they can DLers and WRs, making the chances for success among IOLers more likely than among WRs.

Are the Bengals "serious contenders"? I don't think they are at this time. The Bengals are a marginal playoff team at best. That they failed to make the playoffs in 2023 is blamed on Burrow being injured, but they were only 5-5 in the 10 games when Burrow played and 4-3 without him. They failed again to make the playoffs, again going 9-8, in 2024 because their defense couldn't stop anybody. Your argument that the Bengals shouldn't "waste" money on modest FAs doesn't make sense. They don't have a few holes that can be stop-gap filled with modest FA signings like the Bills or Ravens or Rams. They have lots of holes on both sides of the ball. Hendrickson led the NFL in sacks, but the Bengals' defense still sucked. They have serious need of better defensive backfield personnel, so even some of the modest DBs available in FA would be upgrades. Burrow was sacked 48 times in 2024, but they re-signed Cody Ford (yes, the same Cody Ford the Bills drafted in Round 2 in 2019 and wasn't good enough to even be a Bills backup). In contrast, Josh Allen was sacked 14 times, Lamar Jackson was sacked 23 times, and Matthew Stafford 28 times in 2024. How is a team supposed to improve its record if its roster is filled with poor players -- and it doesn't go after some modest FAs who are better than the guys currently on their roster?