ROCBillsBeliever

I am totally fine with Tony going to the Giants. Now let's get a run on RB's and let JOK and Newsome drop! The night is playing out really, really well for us!

Why am I agreeing with you, @ScottLaw? But I actually am agreeing with you. LOL!

PLEASE TAKE ETN!

Kinda glad the Pats stood pat and took Jones. I do not fear his ceiling. He may end up being good, but he is no world beater.

Those entitled pricks can drink their corrosive tears...

Probably Vera-Tucker... Their line is hot trash.

Please were take Parsons... You know Jerruh doesn't give arat's kabunkus about off field issues... (Also, I want Newsome).

Bears leap up for Fields, foiling Belicheat! Thank you, Chicago!

Glad the Fish didn't get to add Pitts, but Waddle will be tough to cover. Come on, Beane, get us a CB or DE/Edge!

Thanks for all the hard, thorough work, @GunnerBill! Here's to McBeane making some great picks.

Yeah, I listened to a pod with Sharp on it, today, and he referred to that article a couple of times. I gotta get to thee actual article, at some point. Agreed that DE may be the best value, when things all shake out; we'll see, shortly! I had heard a stat that our pass D had the lowest average depth of target against, in the league last year. That's from exactly what Howard & Jeremy were saying: teams just knew that our backend wasn't going to let up the deep ball, so they opted for the death by a thousand paper-cuts approach: short passes all day long, from quick drops. This negated our overpriced D-line, to an extent. Yeah, an Oweh type who can recover and tackle so quickly might be just the right player to combat this style of attack. What a chess game it is, right? I really don't know what other teams are looking for, in the CB realm, but I do know that--very generally speaking--zone DB's tend to go a little later than equally-skilled man DB's, which will play to our favor. My only real hope for a CB at 30 is if Newsome or Horn drops. The latter scenario is well neigh impossible; the former is unlikely. We can always hope, though. Well, if you're honestly that high on him, then the pick is justified, in your book. That's cool, and I can see the logic there.

I mostly agree, but one thing I think about is when you compare your honest ratings of ETN or Harris to the RBs in last year's draft, where do this year's RB's fit with... let's say 2020's top five RBs taken. For reference, here's the top five RBs from 2020, and where they were picked: 32 - Clyde Edwards-Helaire 35 - D'Andre Swift 41 - Jonathan Taylor 52 - Cam Akers 55 - J.K. Dobbins Now, obviously, everyone will have their own takes on grading, but where do you see ETN and Harris fitting among those RBs? Personally, I would put ETN right around Akers and Dobbins, in terms of talent and value. I'd definitely have Harris a notch or two lower (maybe in the mid-60's). You may rank him differently, but would you have ETN ranked ahead of Swift? CEH? That would be hard for me to justify, but again, ranking players is tough, and everyone's going to have a different opinion. I just wouldn't have ETN up there with CEH, Swift, or even Taylor (I loved Taylor, last year; I would have given our 2nd for him, but I get that Beane saw Epenesa's value as being higher, and he probably stuck out like a sore thumb on the Bills' board, so I get it), so it's hard for me to justify trading up for ETN, and I wouldn't be the happiest if he were our pick at 30. I just see better value at CB or DE. I know the counter-argument: last year's draft was stacked at RB (and probably a more stacked draft, in general), so RBs were probably pushed down the board. I get that point, and it is valid, but it still doesn't make me feel good taking an RB just because they weren't pushed down the board in a strong draft. I kind of liken it to the 2013 E.J. Manuel pick. We dropped back (good thing! Gained draft capital, and still got a QB), but it was to draft a QB in what has become--historically--the worst QB draft in the past two decades, or so. It's that kind of a feeling, for me, so I just don't like it.

Yeah... You didn't listen to the pod. That's fine. If you want to do so, and come back with a reasoned argument, be my guest. If you want to just assert that you're right no matter what, I'll take that into account, and react accordingly.

Drafting for initial value without long-term value (or, expected devaluation, as is the case for nearly all RBs) is a terrible idea? Really? Okay... I won't argue with you. Skip to 12:30 minutes into the following podcast, and listen to Bruce Nolan's explanation of value arguments, and how it relates to taking an RB in the 1st round. He explains this much better than me: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGhvbmUuZm0vYnVmZmFsby1ydW1ibGluZ3MtYmlsbHM/episode/ODMzZDZlNDYtOTI5Yy0xMWViLWI5OGYtNGYwZTg3MDhhMDRi?ep=14 I know... you won't actually listen to it, but essentially, I'm not saying ETN isn't the most talented RB in the draft, and I'm not saying he won't help JA. I agree with you on both points. But that is NOT my argument, bud... My argument is about value and it's more based on cost-benefit analysis and opportunity costs. It is not a terrible idea; you just don't know my premises. If you want to listen to that podcast, and argue that ETN (or nearly any RB in the 1st) is a good value, then I will disagree with you, but it doesn't sound like that's what you are arguing about; it sounds like your argument is "get Josh an elite weapon". Maybe I'm not reading your intent correctly; let me know.

Thanks much! Yeah, I was going through some late round WRs, because I kept hearing that this class is deeper than the media buzz has let on, and the mock simulations I was running kept giving me a lot of WR options in those later rounds. I wanted to find out why that kept happening, so I dug into a few guys, and I was very pleasantly surprised that there wasn't much buzz on Stevenson, relative to what I was seeing on film. Now, obviously, what NFL scouts and GMs think is a whole 'nother ballgame, and he could go earlier than I perceive he will, but if he's there, I'd be delighted if we took him with that second 5th or our 6th. Fingers crossed 🤞

Not dancing to the TE shuffle, but I'm on board for a slight trade-up (if necessary) for JOK. Given that we have to battle Kelce and what the Shatriots are trying to do with buying every TE available, having an athlete like JOK to counter their chess pieces would be fantastic!

I know we have a pretty impressive WR stable, but as McD said in one of his offseason pressers: You don't want to lose your fastball... Or your fast ball-catchers, either! I feel like we can all agree that speed at WR, and another potential KR/PR should at least be on the day three radar for McBeane & Co. While Diggs is in his prime, and locked up for a bit, and Gabriel Davis is primed for a productive 2nd season, we also need to admit that Sanders is 34, on a 1 year deal, and Beasley ain't getting any younger. Multiple draft outlets have indicated that the Bills have been in contact with Auburn speed demon WR Anthony Schwartz (one of the fastest WR's in the draft). So, I went and checked out some of his film (granted, mostly highlight reels), and I saw some good and some bad: The Good: -His speed is as advertised. -Was incorporated into McKenzie-esque jet-sweeps, pitches, and short passes, so he's not just a go-route WR. -Elite playmaker. The Bad: -Hands were notably iffy. -He runs fast, but not with fluidity. He's prone to stiff, track-honed movements, which do accelerate his speed, but I'm afraid he will generate only straight-line separation, and not the kind of loose, bursty separation we see out of gems like Beasley and Diggs. -There were a number of highlights where I saw complete lack of situational awareness. a) Specifically, a number of sideline plays where yeah... he scored a TD, but he was carrying the ball in his field-side arm... That's J.V. High School level stuff you need to know (I know... I only made it to J.V. level football, and although I wasn't good enough to advance, I made sure to switch the ball to my sideline-side arm, every chance I had). In the NFL, that will lead to strip-fumbles and turnovers, and it's a danger to any offense. b) While he did frequently take the one-cut-and-go approach that some praise, he displayed a penchant for hyper-focusing on the straightest shot at the goal line, while ignoring the field around him. This allowed DB's and/or safeties who were already behind him to take angles so they could tackle him before he scored. Essentially, he lacked creativity in the open field, on a number of catches, and while his God-given speed allowed him to score on many occasions, the smarter DC's and defensive backfields in the NFL will be more likely to be able to contain the lack of creativity he shows. -Schwartz didn't have a lot of tape of kickoff or punt returns. Now, granted: I may just have missed this tape, or the Auburn staff may have had another player they wanted to feature for KR/PR; I don't know. This could be a hidden strength, or I could be completely off, here. -And, finally, the word is out on Schwartz, so the price-tag is higher. Essentially, there have been reports of over a dozen teams having met with Schwartz, due to his raw speed. This drives up his apparent value (in terms of when a team will need to draft him, in order to beat out other suitors), essentially escalating a bidding war among teams with the need for speed (hey... we are in that mix, post-John Brown). While many sources have been mocking Schwartz in the 5th or 6th, this kind of competition for his admittedly rare and blazing speed could push one team (and it only takes one team to remove him from the board) to select him earlier than may be warranted. I see him going in the 4th (where we don't have a pick), and (IMO) our 3rd is far too early to take him. So, with that in mind, I offer you a 5th or (fingers crossed) 6th round burner WR who: -Has comparable speed to Schwartz. -Has proven highlight reels, showing his situational awareness (i.e. ball-carrying), fluidity, and not just willingness, but a near-preternatural sense of knowing when to make a ridiculous cut-back, to generate space to continue a carry to the proverbial "House". -Has a good amount of KR tape, and it is electric. -Exhibits Diggs and Davis-like sideline swag. -Unafraid of middle-of-the-field contact. -He demonstrates the ability to adjust to passes thrown behind him (almost Sanders-esque, if I do say so). -Is getting nowhere near the draftnik buzz, so his apparent draft value is much, much lower than Schwartz's (and, hence, why I feel as though we have a shot with our 2nd 5th round pick, or our 6th round pick). Who is this late round sleeper? Marquez Stevenson - WR - Houston I don't want to bombard with film, but here are a few highlight reels showing the versatility and dynamism Stevenson has to offer. If he is there at our 2nd 5th or our 6th, and we take him, I would be very, very pleased:

I had watched some of Singletary's college film, prior to the draft, but didn't think we would land him in the 3rd. Thought it was a bit early, but I do really like what he is, when at his best. And yeah, ETN's a Swiss army knife, for sure; there's no discounting that. I just cringe at the cost-benefit of taking an RB in the 1st, unless they are so supremely talented (i.e. Barry Sanders, Walter Payton, Jim Brown, et al) that you cannot pass them up. Well, good old Smokescreen Beane has definitely primed the engines for Thursday night; that's for sure! My personal take: I would be cool with a trade up into the 20's for JC Horn, 25 or later for JOK or Greg Newsome. Other than that, unless someone incredible somehow drops like a rock, you hope there is a 1st round talent at 30, and if not, trade back for more picks in the 2nd - 4th.

I do recall him making that excuse, when his wife was pregnant, ha ha!

So are the munchiees!

True, and true to the first two points, but I'm not concerned that Beane, McDermott, or Daboll envision Brieda as anything more than a change-of-pace backup. I don't think we would have got him on the bargain-basement contract we landed him on, if Brieda, his agent, or the NFL thought otherwise. Yeah, I'd agree, but I also think Beane understands and incorporates long-term value into impact. An impact player for 5 years, that you replace after that doesn't jive with the roster-building that Beane has tended to show with his tendencies in early-round picks. Look at the length of leash Knox and Singletary have had. Think about how Dawkins had that rough, rough 2nd year (we all forget that, and granted, it was because there were steaming piles of decaying poo on our line, around him, that year). Even Zay hung around well past his welcome. I've witnessed Beane giving players a chance, and hoping for a long-term stay in Buffalo, especially with our earlier picks. Possibly, but rumors this time of year always make me skeptical. We'll see.

I'd agree that we lack elite talent at RB, but the stable of Singletary, Moss, and Brieda gives you a solid swiss army knife, while allowing you to have fresh legs later in games. It's the stable of backs that New England employed for decades, and if it was good enough for them to demolish the NFL for 20 years, then I have a feeling that approach to building an RB room may not be fool's gold. Moss injury: Kyle Trimble (An actual Doctor of Physical Therapy, and not just an message board cred-seeker or like-collector - https://bangedupbills.com/about/), from Banged Up Bills, reported that just after the injury, Moss was considering undergoing Tightrope Surgery (https://bangedupbills.com/tag/zack-moss/), one known to accelerate the recovery process. If you're interested in the science, this surgery explained the surgery and outlined in the decidedly non-sportfan-tinged Northwell Health article linked, below: https://www.northwell.edu/orthopaedic-institute/news/tightrope-surgery-accelerates-recovery-from-high-ankle-sprains Prior to the surgery, Trimble explained that: "If he does receive this procedure, there is a chance that he could rehabilitate quicker, but this won’t be known unless it is reported." Moss himself reported the surgery was a success, and he was up and walking in a boot, back on March 8th (on his Instagram): https://www.instagram.com/p/CMLcu2osEcP/ The Buffalo News reported the surgery was successful, as well: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/bills-running-back-zack-moss-undergoes-ankle-surgery/article_36c66d1e-5aa8-11eb-8011-1fdc793619a2.html "Zach Moss had minor surgery on his injured left ankle Tuesday". And, even at the time of the injury, it was reported that Moss avoided a "major injury" (per his agent; from the Buffalo News article): "At the time, his agent, Jamal Tooson, said Moss had avoided "major injury." Moss is expected to make a full recovery and be ready for offseason workouts." To Brieda, yeah: we needed speed, and if you're denying he's fast, well... Not sure what to say. Proof is in the pudding. The guy has broken 22 mph on the field, and he isn't here to be a bellcow. I agree: SF has a great system for RB's, and it's better than ours. When you have an-oft broken Jimmy G flippin' pancackes to RB's, instead of The Firebaugh Kid cannoning missiles all over kingdom come, you might NEED that kind of an RB system to win. That's not our team construction, thanks to the QB we have, so recreating San Fran's RB stable is not our modus operandi. Next clay pidgeon?

I'm sure a lot of Bills fans will wail and moan, weep and gnash their teeth. Meanwhile, Beane will be cracking a smile and a cold one while he chuckles, knowing that ultimate player value is tied to positional value, and that--due to average length of career, cost of positional re-signing after rookie contract, and ability to find Kamara-esque RBs at Kamara-esque spots in the draft (3rd round)--an RB's positional value is low. The top positional values (based on post-rookie contracts) are QB (we are not taking one in the 1st), DE/Edge, and CB. Look at the price tags of 2nd contracts... Beane looks at contracts. Brieda lit the league on fire with San Fran, is more electric (and NFL proven) than ETN, and Beane signed him for something south of 3 mil (after the Fish were allergic to using him, for whatever reason). Am I completely insane, or does nobody see any of this? Or is everyone here trying to blow smoke FOR Beane? (I mean, that's cool if you all are, but it's a little weird)... Okay, #endrant (And not meaning to take it out on you, @PromoTheRobot; I made it 11 pages before melting down over all the RB in the 1st inanity. Straw that broke the camel's back, my friend.)

I see no more than 35 - 40% of the defensive snaps. Once Addison retires (2022), bump that into the 50 - 55% range.

Phins go full-on Vikings, circa 2003? I like this!