lets get something straight.. Tua's Arm is weak. He cant run like Josh and he cant throw hard like Josh. NEVER will.
Secondly Josh Allen took off year 2 not year 3. Were there higher measurables in year 3 yes but people noticed Allen was becoming a super star in year 2.
So what does this leave us with? A drew Breeze type of QB that is hyper active on his short to mid passes and manages the game on an elite level.
If that is the high end players/staff/fans are hoping out of Tua then lets look at some measurables.
Tua has played 2 years 23 games. To compare Tua to a top end hopeful like Brees then we have to go to Brees year 2 because he sat year 1 so this is Tua Year 2 and Brees year 2
Tua stats on the left. Breese on the right. Some of these numbers may actually shock you
Comp% 67.8-60.8 Tua much better
Yards 2353-3284 note Tua did not play a full season year 2
Yards Game 204.1-205.3 about dead even
TD's 16-17 about even
INT's 10-16 Brees 16 int ouch
Rate 90.1-76.9 Tua Wins this category by far.
Lets be realistic about something right now though... 2002 the NFL was not a QB driven league. 20 years ago the game was played way different. That being said Breese did not even begin to shine with decent accuracy or rate till year 4 when he went 11-4. Brees did work on arm strength where he continued his career having 8 impressive total yard years totaling over 4850 yards per year each of those 8 years... then towards the end Brees lost his arm strength and retired.
So what does this all tell you? NOTHING! JACK! Tua could have his worst year ever this year. I am not going to sit here and begin to say Tua will grow to be a great player at all. What I am saying is that Tua has some interesting dynamic measurables that should not be ignored. I doubt anyone will match the year to year progress Josh Allen has shown and I have my doubts about Tua period.. But I also wont laugh at this either. Miami is the second most complete team to us in the division other then an unproven QB.
Tua is going to get lots of Yac yards via Hill this year. Where Tua has failed Miami is in 3 places. 1. Arm Strength, 2. Pre Snap decision making 3. Not seeing the deep ball.